Forthcoming and Online First Articles

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling (IJSPM)

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International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling (13 papers in press)

Regular Issues

  • Prediction of environmental factors in seafood cold chain transportation based on IAGA-ELM algorithm   Order a copy of this article
    by Yang Wang, Yujia Jin, Yinong Chen, Shenghui Zhao, Xu E 
    Abstract: Cold chain transportation is often used to ensure the quality of seafood. In order to reduce the impact of environmental factors on product quality during cold chain transportation, an environmental factor prediction method based on improved adaptive genetic algorithm (IAGA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) is developed to predict the environmental factors generated in cold chain transportation. The environmental factor data composed of the gases released in the decay mechanism of cold fresh seafood is collected for training ELM with fast training speed and strong generalisation ability. Furthermore, the prediction model of environmental factors in the process of seafood cold chain transportation is established. Because initial connection weights and threshold values of traditional ELM have the characteristics of randomness, IAGA is used to address this issue. Compared with the existing ELM, GA-ELM, AGA-ELM and other models, our experimental results show that the proposed model obtains higher prediction accuracy and lower error rate.
    Keywords: IAGA; ELM; cold chain transportation; environmental factors; prediction.

  • Research on end-edge-cloud collaborative model of smart home system   Order a copy of this article
    by Shun-kai Lu, Bao-chuan Fu 
    Abstract: By introducing edge computing technology, an end-to-end cloud collaborative task scheduling model is built to provide computing power support for smart home systems. With the purpose of increasing the use rate of edge nodes and sharing the cloud computing pressure as well as meeting the demand of users for time delay as the constraint condition, tasks generated by users are analysed and unloaded to each edge node and cloud according to greedy algorithm. The edge nodes are pre-graded to reduce the global neglect of greedy algorithm when it comes to local optimal solution. The optimisation of setting edge node pair to reduce cloud platform pressure and edge node hierarchical unloading compared with traditional computing mode is verified by simulation.
    Keywords: edge computing; time delay; smart home; cloud computing.

  • Presenting an efficient scenario to deal with the prevalence of COVID-19 in Iran using a system dynamics approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Azam Modares, Pardis Roozkhosh 
    Abstract: The COVID-19 disease has adversely affected all countries in the world, due to its impact on public health and the lack of a basic solution. In this study, a model of the disease status in Iran is presented using system dynamics (SD). Even though static models that leverage mathematical programming and analytical models have been widely studied, simulation methods in the anticipation policies to deal with infectious diseases are scarce despite their potential. To this end, SD modeling is suitable to account for the dynamic and complexity of systems and supporting strategic decision-making. In this study, the SD method is used to model the behavior of variables such as the number of patients, population of deaths, recovered population, susceptible population, social distance, observance of health issues, and so on. Finally, to prevent comprehensive outbreak, three different scenarios are proposed and, the effect of the scenarios on the problem variables in dealing with this disease are investigated.
    Keywords: COVID-19; epidemic; health system; simulation; system dynamics; comprehensive outbreak; vaccination.

  • New boarding policies to improve the passenger experience in cable car transport systems   Order a copy of this article
    by Bernhard Oberegger, Boualem Rabta, Christian Wankmüller, Gerald Reiner 
    Abstract: Current boarding approaches in cable car transport systems allow passengers to board freely whenever seats are available. During rush hours, cabins are usually loaded fully at the first station where the queue is fluid while passengers in subsequent stations have to wait long until boarding even when queues are short. This maximises throughput, but passengers at subsequent stations might feel unfairly treated. To improve passenger experience, we propose boarding policies to (re)balance the capacity at all stations. We develop a discrete event simulation model based on empirical data to analyse several boarding policies and to determine the best configuration that ensures fairness instead of reducing only waiting times. Results show that using boarding policies reduces waiting times at subsequent stations to the detriment of passengers at the first station. However, this approach generates a fairer waiting time situation, indicating a better experience and less stress for cable car passengers.
    Keywords: cable car systems; boarding policies; passenger experience; fair waiting policy; discrete event simulation.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2022.10053863
  • Model for improving emergency room performance using a coloured Petri net   Order a copy of this article
    by Alvaro Caicedo Rolon, Gustavo Guerrero Gómez, Faustino Moreno Gamboa 
    Abstract: Emergency rooms are one of the most complex and vital areas of healthcare institutions, which have presented overcrowding, affecting the timeliness and quality of service. We designed a detailed patient flow model in the emergency room using the hierarchical timed coloured Petri nets. Then, we simulated the model to evaluate improvement scenarios considering physician staff planning, adjusting work schedules and increasing observation beds. The best scenario would reduce the average waiting times for triage II patients by 17.30% and 47.57%, and triage III by 33.49% and 43.49% for medical consultation in the office or the minor surgery room, respectively. In addition, the waiting time in observation and the rate of patients left without being seen by a physician would reduce by 92.45% and 74.67%, respectively. Finally, this model is a tool to support emergency room managers in making short, medium, and long-term decisions.
    Keywords: healthcare system; discrete event simulation; DES; decision-making; healthcare management; hospital logistics; emergency department.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2022.10053527

Special Issue on: ISSPM2020 Advances in Simulation and Process Modelling

  • A methodology to characterise simulation models for discovery and composition: a system theory based approach to model curation for integration and reuse   Order a copy of this article
    by Bernard Zeigler 
    Abstract: We make a strong assumption that we can extract the necessary and sufficient information needed to decide whether a simulation model is suitable for an analyst's problem and that it contains information on how to be configured, integrated, and executed. This assumption allows us review an approach that is founded on the theory of modelling and simulation and employs tools to develop, simulate, and apply models expressed in the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) formalism, a sound systems theory-based computational methodology for system-of-systems model development and deployment. This foundation allows us to discuss how to apply the well-developed theory to curate simulation models so that they can more easily be discovered from a model repository given analytical objectives. After outlining the methodology, we place it in a broader context in which web- and cloud-based technologies are employed for integration and to enable modelling and simulation as a service. Significant technical challenges are described that require continued research and development.
    Keywords: DEVS; theory of modelling and simulation; model curation; reusability; composability.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2022.10053084
  • Simulation of pork supply chain based on system dynamics model   Order a copy of this article
    by Qianqian Shao, Xiaojing Zhang, Chong Li, Yang Liu 
    Abstract: In most of the advanced researches of pork supply chain (PSC) analysis, the systematic behaviour is only studied locally, and does not focus on the influence of different consumer demand changes on the system behaviour. In order to make the simulated PSC more authentic, different combinations of three demand types (random demand, sudden demand and cyclical demand) are considered in this model. Within the PSC, there is a causal relationship between the actions of enterprises. System dynamics (SD) can build complex system models to solve complex dynamic problems. Therefore, we analyse the PSC and integrate the system flow diagram and variable equations into a SD flowchart to study the internal behaviour. Taking Shenyang (China) PSC in 2020 as an example, the system behaviour was observed. In addition, the influence of price delay and transportation delay on pork price is further discussed.
    Keywords: pork supply chain; system dynamic; pork price; flow diagram.

  • Simulation optimisation of displaced left-turn intersection layout with multi-objectives   Order a copy of this article
    by Qianqian Shao, Yingcheng Zheng, Yang Liu, Yan Xing 
    Abstract: The displaced left-turn (DLT) intersection, which effectively solve the conflict between left-turn and opposing-through traffic, is currently the most efficient innovative intersection design. However, the special layout of DLT will inevitably cause high difficulty in channelisation design. For full use of the potential traffic capacity of the DLT intersection, a multi-objective optimisation model for intersection with DLT layout (MOOM-DLTL) is built based on the integrated simulation and mathematical programming (ISMP) framework. In this model, the signal scheme is regarded as the accompanying strategy of DLT layout optimisation to describe the interaction between layout and signal control. In addition, the multi-objective particle swarm optimisation based on shift-based density estimation (MOPSO+SDE) algorithm is developed to obtain the Pareto front of the proposed model. A series of experimental results show that the proposed optimisation method is successful in improving the traffic efficiency of DLT intersection.
    Keywords: displaced left-turn; multi-objective optimisation; layout design; MOPSO.

  • Effect of cap gap and welded seam strength on concrete-filled steel tube arch bridge ribs   Order a copy of this article
    by Zhengran Lu, Chao Guo 
    Abstract: In this paper, the quantitative analysis is investigated for the concrete-filled steel tube rib strength that contained defects. The friction Coulomb model was used to investigate the interaction between the steel tube and the concrete core. Based on the non-destructive testing data, the finite element analysis is simulated with ABAQUS to obtain the strength of serviced concrete-filled steel tube ribs containing cap gaps and reduced spiral-welded seam strength which are exposed to weak eccentric axial compression. The results show that spiral-welded seam defects have weaker influence on the bearing capacity of CFST than that on empty steel tube. However, it has a significant influence on CFST local yield failure mode. The cap gap defects have effect on the shape of N-? relationships. For CFSTs with composite defects, welded seam defects weakened local steel tube restrain capacity to concrete, resulting in CFST bending failure.
    Keywords: composite defect; finite element method; concrete-filled steel tube; spiral welded seam; cap gap.

  • Research on travel time prediction of expressway in peak period based on Greenberg model   Order a copy of this article
    by Yan Xing, Yuqing Hao 
    Abstract: Expressway travel time is an important parameter to describe the traffic status of the expressway, which can accurately evaluate the smoothness of the expressway and can reflect the efficiency of expressway traffic. To further improve the research content of expressway travel time prediction, simplify the complexity of the travel time prediction method, and improve the prediction accuracy, in this paper, the travel time prediction of the expressway is divided into three cases: exit between two cross-sections, entrance between two cross-sections, and no entrance/exit between two cross-sections. First of all, based on the Greenberg model, assuming a uniform distribution of vehicles on the road section, and under the premise of a comprehensive analysis of the section flow, section traffic density, and other factors, respectively, to establish different sections under the peak period expressway vehicle travel time prediction model. Finally, the model is verified by taking the expressway around the city as an example. The results show that the prediction results are always within 10% of the actual measurement error, which shows that compared with the measured data, the error of the model proposed in this paper is small, the prediction accuracy is high, within the acceptable range. The calculation is relatively simple, and has good application value and comprehensive performance.
    Keywords: travel time prediction; entrance/exit ramp; Greenberg model; peak expressway.

  • Research on fire escape paths for complex public buildings with multiple starting and end points   Order a copy of this article
    by Yi Zhang, Chi Wang, Wenwen Tong, Tianqi Liu 
    Abstract: In order to solve the path-planning problem in the escape and evacuation of dense crowds in complex buildings, an improved Dijkstra's algorithm is proposed in this paper to carry out a research on the planning of the shortest escape path from the starting point of the crowds to the security exit of the building. In order to test the effect of the algorithm, the simulation of the proposed improved algorithm has been carried out in the paper using real commercial bodies as a model with different number of people and different distribution densities. The experimental results verify that the proposed algorithm is fast and efficient and can effectively improve the escape efficiency of the crowds, which has strong application value.
    Keywords: improved Dijkstra's algorithm; multiple starting and end points; evacuation; path planning;.

  • A novel analytical model for estimating vehicle delays at isolated signalised intersections   Order a copy of this article
    by Feng Qiao, Huixin Liu, Dan Luo, Haochen Sun, Yinong Chen 
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel analytical model to estimate the average vehicle delay at signalised intersections under saturated or oversaturated conditions, based on the investigation and analysis of the existing methods to deal with the problems arising in the processes of acceleration, deceleration, and the transmissibility of the cycle-by-cycle average vehicle delay. The proposed model employs and combines the operating and queuing characteristics of vehicles to produce the analytic formula. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, simulation experiments are conducted, and the error rates and the correlation coefficients are investigated, which confirm that the proposed model possesses certain significant advantages over the existing models in saturated and oversaturated conditions. The results of research work show that the proposed model can provide transportation engineers or professionals with an effective tool for analysing, timing and managing the saturated or oversaturated signalised intersections.
    Keywords: signalised intersection; analytical model; vehicle delay; saturated condition; oversaturated condition; operating characteristics.

  • ARIMA based time-series analysis for forecasting of Covid-19 cases in Egypt   Order a copy of this article
    by Ibrahim Sabry, Abdel-Hamid Ismail Mourad, Amir Hussain Idrisi, Mohamed El-Wakil 
    Abstract: This novel coronavirus is one of the world's most devastating viruses at the moment and currently constitutes a major threat to human health. Globally, approx. three hundred million people have been infected, resulting in the deaths of more than five million people. The goal of this study is to understand the distribution of Covid-19 in Egypt. A mathematical model was developed using data collected from the Egyptian Ministry of Health. A major purpose of this study is to examine the distribution of Covid-19 in Egypt in order to develop an effective forecasting model. It can be used as a decision-making mechanism to administer health interventions and mitigate the transmission of contamination Covid-19. In accordance with this definition, we developed a model and then used it to predict possible Covid-19 cases in Egypt. The analysis suggests a growth trajectory for the events in the days to come. Statistics based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis suggest that the total cases of Covid-19 pneumonia in mainland Egypt can hit 281478 after a week (1 March, 2020 through July 31, 2021), and the number of simple regenerations can hit 12. Analysis of ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and (2, 1, 3) sequence shows increasing growth in the number of events. The current model forecasts would help the government and medical personnel to plan themselves for the coming conditions and make healthcare systems more ready.
    Keywords: coronavirus; Covid-19; pandemic; ARIMA; forecast; Egypt.