Forthcoming and Online First Articles

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling (IJSPM)

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International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling (25 papers in press)

Regular Issues

  • Modelling of the balance between energy efficiency and economy and simulation analysis in electric gas production technology   Order a copy of this article
    by Jiajun Wang, Yahui Wang, Wenjie Qi 
    Abstract: The simulation optimisation analysis of electric gas production technology (P2G) was conducted by an exergy analysis method. The energy efficiency equation of electrolysis water and methanation in P2G was established. The net present value (NPV) method was used to analyse the economy of P2G, and the economy equation of P2G was established. The balance between economy and energy efficiency of the system was adjusted using the optimisation weight coefficient. The optimisation model of balance between energy efficiency and economy in P2G and its constraint equation were established, and the optimisation simulation analysis was carried out by combining Lagrange relaxation and branch-and-bound method. The analysis results have shown that the profit of the P2G is affected by the efficiency of electrolysis water and methanation as well as equipment investment. By optimising the P2G process and investing in the equipment reasonably, the maximum economic benefit of the P2G system can be obtained.
    Keywords: electric gas production technology; exergy analysis; energy efficiency; simulation.

  • Using discrete event simulation to optimise cementing resources: a case study analysis using a call-out strategy for onshore rigs   Order a copy of this article
    by Mohammed K. Watfa, Maclean Dsouza 
    Abstract: While drilling oil and gas wells, multiple rigs are moved from one location to another for drilling and finalising new wells along the way. A standard resource configuration is to assign one cementing package for each rig. However, owing to the economic crisis experienced in the oil and gas industry in 2008, 2015 and recently due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, companies are pushed to decrease costs efficiently. A simulation method is studied and developed in this paper to close the gap between the operations research and the implementation of a call-out strategy, which is reflected in the optimisation and resource capacity planning of the capital intensive, high pressure cement units. The objectives of this study are to study the economic implications of the call-out strategy and develop a discrete-event simulation model for the evaluation of call-out strategies alternatives to improve operational efficiency while minimising non-productive time.
    Keywords: call-out strategy; cementing unit resources; operations research; drilling rigs; arena; optimisation; discrete event simulation.

  • Dynamic optimisation of elevators using biometric identification systems   Order a copy of this article
    by Eugeniu Cozac, Dmitry Gura, Alexey Bityutskiy, Sergei Kiselev, Anastasia Repeva 
    Abstract: The research focused on developing a real-time monitoring algorithm for elevators in residential towers. The study employed methods, models, and software tools to build intelligent real-time decision-making systems. A model for the elevator setting process was implemented through a Markov decision-making process. The theory of mass service was applied to describe the model of elevator operations. Passenger waiting time patterns at some levels of the towers have been established. A mathematical model for managing passenger flows through the elevators of a high-rise building in real-time using facial recognition identification technology has been developed. In test mode, a face-recognition elevator control system has been installed in 4 elevators. Results from experiments and theoretical calculations were statistically processed in Statistica and MS Excel software. The proposed solution allows optimizing numerous elevator systems with a constantly evolving control algorithm tailored to the customer's preferences.
    Keywords: lifting facility; Markov process; mathematical model; traffic fluctuations; biometric data.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2022.10045827
     
  • Service level analysis for an automotive prototype manufacturing company through the application of discrete event modelling and simulation.   Order a copy of this article
    by Karen García-Orozco, Ariana Gazcon-Rivera, Anna De León, Jenaro Nosedal-Sanchez 
    Abstract: This study addresses modelling and simulation as a tool for the analysis and evaluation of the design and manufacturing process of automotive prototypes. The application of these tools allows to visualise the process from a broader perspective and identify the downtimes that induce high variability to the process. Through the implemented simulation, the process cycle time is estimated given a certain level of service for each family of sequences identified in the sample. These results provide a quantitative reference of the response time according to the desired level of service for the process in general. In addition, an improvement scenario is provided through the implementation of a control monitor (KPI) in the critical activities that induce high variability to the process, which allows a 39% reduction in the magnitude of the lead times.
    Keywords: supply chain; business analytics; discrete event simulation; Petri networks; CPN tool.

  • Spatial-temporal monitoring risk analysis and decision-making of Covid-19 distribution by region   Order a copy of this article
    by Leandro Pereira, Jorge Correia, José Sequeiros, José Santos, Carlos Jeronimo 
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to model, map and identify why these areas present a completely different dispersion pattern, as well as creating a risk model, composed by variables such as probability, susceptibility, danger, vulnerability and potential damage, that characterise each of the defined regions. The model is based on a risk conceptual model proposed by Bachmann and Allg
    Keywords: Covid-19; spatial temporal; risk analysis; chaos theory; gravity model.

  • Energy efficiency optimisation modelling for security robots by edge computing   Order a copy of this article
    by Muchun Zhou, Baochuan Fu, Baoping Jiang 
    Abstract: Mobile robots with rich sensors accomplish many computation-intensive tasks which account for a large proportion of the total energy consumption, thus affecting the service life of their batteries. In the case of analysing real-time video data and a large amount of sensor data, offloading a numerous intensive computing tasks to edge servers has become an extensive solution. This paper proposes a system model containing multi-robot terminals and multi-edge servers which uses a simulated annealing algorithm based on exchanging two different edge servers. This algorithm realises energy efficiency optimisation for security robots under minimum latency and power limitation by offloading partial computation-intensive tasks to edge servers. The feasibility of the proposed algorithm is also verified by the simulation results.
    Keywords: edge computing; security robot; computation offloading; energy efficiency optimisation.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2022.10045884
     
  • Experimental research and simulation verification of recycling process of heat transfer oil   Order a copy of this article
    by Guorong Liu 
    Abstract: Heat transfer oil will inevitably deteriorate after long time use, leading to insoluble acetone in hot medium oil gradually accumulating and seriously exceeding the standard. Therefore, extending the service life of heat transfer oil is an important means to improve economic benefits. In this experiment, a solvent extraction settlement method was used to remove insoluble acetone. By designing a set of extractive settlers, sedimentation experiments were carried out with different solvents; moreover, the insoluble acetone content, kinematic viscosity and neutralisation value of the extracted heat transfer oil were determined, using the computational fluid dynamics method to verify the effect of the asphalt settlement separation tank by numerical simulation. The experiments were validated by measuring the extraction effects of different solvents. The results have important implications for industrial production.
    Keywords: heat transfer oil; insoluble acetone; extraction sedimentation; orthogonal test; numerical simulation.

  • Strategic digital shipbuilding project portfolio configuration and optimisation   Order a copy of this article
    by Rafael Diaz 
    Abstract: Program portfolio managers in digital transformation projects need knowledge that can guide allocation decisions associated with the configuration of project assets within the sustainable and strategic objectives of the firm. This research aims to propose a framework capable of optimising the cost-benefit adjustments from assessing investment risks of digital transformation projects, such as cybersecurity projects. The context considers the innovative sector of military shipbuilding and repair. Our approach uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Monte Carlo simulation modelling to capture risk effects and quantify investment priorities. This method enables the application of Portfolio Management Theory principles to measure and optimise the performance of the digitalisation project portfolio. The framework's utility is discussed using a hypothetical case study presenting several digital transformation project investment scenarios.
    Keywords: project management; portfolio management; neural networks; Lean; learning.

  • Tea industry's sustainable development: based on participants' tripartite evolutionary game and numerical simulation   Order a copy of this article
    by Yihui Chen, Biyun Hong 
    Abstract: Based on the assumptions of bounded rationality and information asymmetry, this paper adopts the tripartite evolutionary game and the numerical simulation to analyse the evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) and evolution process of the three participants in the sustainable development of the tea industry. Firstly, because the sustainable development of the tea industry is jointly affected by the three participants involved, and there are limitations in the study of a single perspective, this paper makes reasonable assumptions based on reality and constructs the tripartite evolutionary game model that includes the government, the enterprises/farmers and consumers as the main participants. Secondly, this paper applies the Lyapunov stability discriminant equations to analyse the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points in the tripartite evolutionary game model, and proves that when the constraints are met, there are 4 dynamic ESS for the three participants, namely E2(0,1,0), E5(0,1,1), E7(1,1,0) and E8(1,1,1). Thirdly, through further analysis and numerical simulation of each dynamic ESS, this paper confirms that when the greater the loss of the government not supporting the sustainable development, and the greater the government's subsidies to enterprises/farmers for adopting sustainable production technologies, and the greater the punishment for violations of the enterprises/farmers, it is more likely to achieve the sustainable development of the tea industry.
    Keywords: tea industry; sustainable development; sustainable production technology; sustainable consumption behavior; tripartite evolutionary game; numerical simulation; China; evolutionary stable strategies; equilibrium point.

  • Prediction of environmental factors in seafood cold chain transportation based on IAGA-ELM algorithm   Order a copy of this article
    by Yang Wang, Yujia Jin, Yinong Chen, Shenghui Zhao, Xu E 
    Abstract: Cold chain transportation is often used to ensure the quality of seafood. In order to reduce the impact of environmental factors on product quality during cold chain transportation, an environmental factor prediction method based on improved adaptive genetic algorithm (IAGA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) is developed to predict the environmental factors generated in cold chain transportation. The environmental factor data composed of the gases released in the decay mechanism of cold fresh seafood is collected for training ELM with fast training speed and strong generalisation ability. Furthermore, the prediction model of environmental factors in the process of seafood cold chain transportation is established. Because initial connection weights and threshold values of traditional ELM have the characteristics of randomness, IAGA is used to address this issue. Compared with the existing ELM, GA-ELM, AGA-ELM and other models, our experimental results show that the proposed model obtains higher prediction accuracy and lower error rate.
    Keywords: IAGA; ELM; cold chain transportation; environmental factors; prediction.

  • A novel method of automatic reading for rotor water meter based on image processing   Order a copy of this article
    by Juan Wang, Hongqing Li, Bing Bai 
    Abstract: This paper investigates the reading issue of rotor water meter and presents a novel method of automatic reading based on image processing. In order to handle the impact of a complex environment, we use an object detection neural network to detect the bounding boxes of sub-dials on the water meter. Based on the standard spatial layout of sub-dials, the pose of the water meter is corrected by perspective transformation. The regions of pointers are segmented from sub-dials by semantic segmentation. According to the segmented region, a multi centroids method is proposed, through which the angle of the pointer area can be accurately obtained. The proposed method of automatic reading has better robustness and the obtained readings are more accurate. Simulation study is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
    Keywords: rotor water meter; automatic reading; deep learning; image processing; multi centroids method.

  • An integrated fuzzy AHP approach for optimisation of the theory of failures of multi-directional composite laminates   Order a copy of this article
    by Mohan Kumar Pradhan 
    Abstract: Owing to their improved engineering characteristics, composite materials have been widely used in various engineering fields over the past several decades. But unlike metals, composite materials failure is progressive and may be initiated in the form of breaking of fibres, micro-cracks in the matrix, etc., but its propagation and final failure modes may be considerably different.
    Keywords: analytic hierarchy process; theories of Failure; composite materials; fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making; synthetic evaluation.

  • Research on enterprise terminal network planning under the new retail format   Order a copy of this article
    by Siqi Zhang, Guanyang Li, Yiming Zheng, Yang Liu 
    Abstract: In view of the new retail online and offline omni-channel integration, with emphasis on customer consumption experience and delivery timeliness, this paper comprehensively considers customer satisfaction from two aspects of different levels of service costs and delivery timeliness, and establishes a bilevel programming model with the maximum comprehensive customer satisfaction and the lowest price of network planning. The paper uses AP clustering algorithm to cluster relevant customer areas, brings the clustering results into the model and applies the NSGA-II algorithm for further optimisation. Combined with the analysis of an example, the number, location, scale and service radiation range of the terminal network are planned reasonably, and the network model is innovated. The results show that the model and algorithm can effectively solve the problem of enterprise terminal network planning in the new retail format.
    Keywords: new retail; network planning; bilevel programming model; AP clustering algorithm; NSGA-II algorithm.

Special Issue on: I3M2020/ISM2020 Smart Interaction for the 4.0 Domains Modelling and Simulating the Content of the Future

  • A simulation study on how to optimally storage products in a warehouse of a fashion supply chain selling through an e-commerce channel   Order a copy of this article
    by Eleonora Bottani, Letizia Tebaldi, Mariachiara Rossi, Giorgia Casella 
    Abstract: Where is it the most convenient to allocate a determined product? This paper, by means of a simulation tool, makes an attempt to answer this question, for the specific case of an e-commerce warehouse in which fashion items are stored. According to the typical steps of the Deming cycle, after having studied the current situation (AS IS scenario) of items allocation, a simulated one (TO BE scenario) was developed for studying a new allocation strategy, and for its assessment four key performance indicators (KPIs) were considered: the storage and picking productivity (both expressed in terms of processed units per hour), the percentage of FIFO batch for multi-customer orders and the time spent for batching (measured in hours). Results from the implementation show an improvement of the KPIs under investigation, as well as the observation of the specific targets set, and consequently an optimisation of picking activities
    Keywords: warehouse optimisation; picking optimisation; PDCA; product allocation optimisation; logistics; e-commerce; fashion supply chain; simulation; case study.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2022.10047459
     
  • An information-based model to assess human cognitive capacity and information processing speed of operators in Industry 4.0   Order a copy of this article
    by Daniela Cavallo, Salvatore Digiesi, Francesco Facchini, Giovanni Mummolo 
    Abstract: The fourth industrial revolution introduced a new paradigm in manufacturing systems. In the new production environments, operators are supported by new digital technologies, and the physical context is strictly related to the cyber one. In the digital society, recent studies show that individuals have to perform tasks based on the information gathered by a huge amount of data and the operators are employed in more cognitive than physical tasks. Therefore, the purpose of this paper consists in developing an information-based analytical framework to assess the human cognitive capacity occupancy and the human processing time of correct information when the quality performance is known. The model has been tested on case studies. The results show its effectiveness in evaluating the human mental workload imposed by the task performed and the processing speed of correct information with varying quality performance.
    Keywords: cognitive task; mental workload; human information processing speed; smart operator; information theory model.

  • A numerical assessment of the influence of Industry 4.0 technologies on the cognitive complexity of procedure-guided tasks   Order a copy of this article
    by Francesco Facchini, Andrea Lucchese, Giorgio Mossa, Giovanni Mummolo, Francesco Paolo Sisto 
    Abstract: In the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) context, procedure-guided tasks are characterised by a greater complexity owing to the higher cognitive nature. On one side, increasing information processing demand and more articulated decision-making processes are required in new factories. On the other side, different I4.0 technologies are available to support workers in work environments. In this regard, the entropy measures were adopted to evaluate how the cognitive complexity required by general procedure-guided tasks changes when the I4.0 technologies are implemented. Results show that the implementation of I4.0 technologies decreases the information processing demand of the task (estimated in bit/s), reducing the cognitive effort of operators. Furthermore, the numerical simulation shows that adopting I4.0 technologies, an operator is able to perform a task 20% more complex (estimated in bit). Consequently, the study conducted allowed to predict how the information processing demand of procedure-guided tasks can be affected by implementing I4.0 technologies.
    Keywords: cognitive complexity; task complexity; procedure-guided tasks; I4.0 technologies; Industry 4.0; entropy measure; task structure.

  • Digital clones and digital immunity: adversarial training handles both   Order a copy of this article
    by Vladyslav Branytskyi, Mariia Golovianko, Svitlana Gryshko, Diana Malyk, Vagan Terziyan, Tuure Tuunanen 
    Abstract: Smart manufacturing requires digital clones of physical objects (digital twins) and human decision-makers (cognitive clones). The latter requires use of machine learning to capture hidden personalised decision models from humans. Machine learning nowadays is a subject of various adversarial attacks (poisoning, evasion, etc.) on the training and testing data. Responsible use of machine learning requires some kind of 'digital immunity' (the capability of smart systems to operate robustly in adversarial conditions). Both problems (clones and immunity training) require the same backbone solution, which is adversarial training (learning on the basis of automatically generated adversarial samples). In this study, we designed and experimentally tested special algorithms for adversarial samples generation to fit simultaneously both purposes: to better personalise the decision models for digital clones and to train digital immunity to ensure robustness of the autonomous decision models. We demonstrated that our algorithms essentially facilitate the training process towards the desired robustness for both problems.
    Keywords: digital cloning; digital immunity; Industry 4.0; adversarial machine learning; adversarial example generation; machine learning; generative adversarial networks; process modelling.

Special Issue on: ISSPM2020 Advances in Simulation and Process Modelling

  • A methodology to characterise simulation models for discovery and composition: a system theory based approach to model curation for integration and reuse   Order a copy of this article
    by Bernard Zeigler 
    Abstract: We make a strong assumption that we can extract the necessary and sufficient information needed to decide whether a simulation model is suitable for an analyst's problem and that it contains information on how to be configured, integrated, and executed. This assumption allows us review an approach that is founded on the theory of modelling and simulation and employs tools to develop, simulate, and apply models expressed in the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) formalism, a sound systems theory-based computational methodology for system-of-systems model development and deployment. This foundation allows us to discuss how to apply the well-developed theory to curate simulation models so that they can more easily be discovered from a model repository given analytical objectives. After outlining the methodology, we place it in a broader context in which web- and cloud-based technologies are employed for integration and to enable modelling and simulation as a service. Significant technical challenges are described that require continued research and development.
    Keywords: DEVS; theory of modelling and simulation; model curation; reusability; composability.

  • Simulation of pork supply chain based on system dynamics model   Order a copy of this article
    by Qianqian Shao, Xiaojing Zhang, Chong Li, Yang Liu 
    Abstract: In most of the advanced researches of pork supply chain (PSC) analysis, the systematic behaviour is only studied locally, and does not focus on the influence of different consumer demand changes on the system behaviour. In order to make the simulated PSC more authentic, different combinations of three demand types (random demand, sudden demand and cyclical demand) are considered in this model. Within the PSC, there is a causal relationship between the actions of enterprises. System dynamics (SD) can build complex system models to solve complex dynamic problems. Therefore, we analyse the PSC and integrate the system flow diagram and variable equations into a SD flowchart to study the internal behaviour. Taking Shenyang (China) PSC in 2020 as an example, the system behaviour was observed. In addition, the influence of price delay and transportation delay on pork price is further discussed.
    Keywords: pork supply chain; system dynamic; pork price; flow diagram.

  • Simulation optimisation of displaced left-turn intersection layout with multi-objectives   Order a copy of this article
    by Qianqian Shao, Yingcheng Zheng, Yang Liu, Yan Xing 
    Abstract: The displaced left-turn (DLT) intersection, which effectively solve the conflict between left-turn and opposing-through traffic, is currently the most efficient innovative intersection design. However, the special layout of DLT will inevitably cause high difficulty in channelisation design. For full use of the potential traffic capacity of the DLT intersection, a multi-objective optimisation model for intersection with DLT layout (MOOM-DLTL) is built based on the integrated simulation and mathematical programming (ISMP) framework. In this model, the signal scheme is regarded as the accompanying strategy of DLT layout optimisation to describe the interaction between layout and signal control. In addition, the multi-objective particle swarm optimisation based on shift-based density estimation (MOPSO+SDE) algorithm is developed to obtain the Pareto front of the proposed model. A series of experimental results show that the proposed optimisation method is successful in improving the traffic efficiency of DLT intersection.
    Keywords: displaced left-turn; multi-objective optimisation; layout design; MOPSO.

  • Effect of cap gap and welded seam strength on concrete-filled steel tube arch bridge ribs   Order a copy of this article
    by Zhengran Lu, Chao Guo 
    Abstract: In this paper, the quantitative analysis is investigated for the concrete-filled steel tube rib strength that contained defects. The friction Coulomb model was used to investigate the interaction between the steel tube and the concrete core. Based on the non-destructive testing data, the finite element analysis is simulated with ABAQUS to obtain the strength of serviced concrete-filled steel tube ribs containing cap gaps and reduced spiral-welded seam strength which are exposed to weak eccentric axial compression. The results show that spiral-welded seam defects have weaker influence on the bearing capacity of CFST than that on empty steel tube. However, it has a significant influence on CFST local yield failure mode. The cap gap defects have effect on the shape of N-? relationships. For CFSTs with composite defects, welded seam defects weakened local steel tube restrain capacity to concrete, resulting in CFST bending failure.
    Keywords: composite defect; finite element method; concrete-filled steel tube; spiral welded seam; cap gap.

  • Research on travel time prediction of expressway in peak period based on Greenberg model   Order a copy of this article
    by Yan Xing, Yuqing Hao 
    Abstract: Expressway travel time is an important parameter to describe the traffic status of the expressway, which can accurately evaluate the smoothness of the expressway and can reflect the efficiency of expressway traffic. To further improve the research content of expressway travel time prediction, simplify the complexity of the travel time prediction method, and improve the prediction accuracy, in this paper, the travel time prediction of the expressway is divided into three cases: exit between two cross-sections, entrance between two cross-sections, and no entrance/exit between two cross-sections. First of all, based on the Greenberg model, assuming a uniform distribution of vehicles on the road section, and under the premise of a comprehensive analysis of the section flow, section traffic density, and other factors, respectively, to establish different sections under the peak period expressway vehicle travel time prediction model. Finally, the model is verified by taking the expressway around the city as an example. The results show that the prediction results are always within 10% of the actual measurement error, which shows that compared with the measured data, the error of the model proposed in this paper is small, the prediction accuracy is high, within the acceptable range. The calculation is relatively simple, and has good application value and comprehensive performance.
    Keywords: travel time prediction; entrance/exit ramp; Greenberg model; peak expressway.

  • Research on fire escape paths for complex public buildings with multiple starting and end points   Order a copy of this article
    by Yi Zhang, Chi Wang, Wenwen Tong, Tianqi Liu 
    Abstract: In order to solve the path-planning problem in the escape and evacuation of dense crowds in complex buildings, an improved Dijkstra's algorithm is proposed in this paper to carry out a research on the planning of the shortest escape path from the starting point of the crowds to the security exit of the building. In order to test the effect of the algorithm, the simulation of the proposed improved algorithm has been carried out in the paper using real commercial bodies as a model with different number of people and different distribution densities. The experimental results verify that the proposed algorithm is fast and efficient and can effectively improve the escape efficiency of the crowds, which has strong application value.
    Keywords: improved Dijkstra's algorithm; multiple starting and end points; evacuation; path planning;.

  • A novel analytical model for estimating vehicle delays at isolated signalised intersections   Order a copy of this article
    by Feng Qiao, Huixin Liu, Dan Luo, Haochen Sun, Yinong Chen 
    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel analytical model to estimate the average vehicle delay at signalised intersections under saturated or oversaturated conditions, based on the investigation and analysis of the existing methods to deal with the problems arising in the processes of acceleration, deceleration, and the transmissibility of the cycle-by-cycle average vehicle delay. The proposed model employs and combines the operating and queuing characteristics of vehicles to produce the analytic formula. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, simulation experiments are conducted, and the error rates and the correlation coefficients are investigated, which confirm that the proposed model possesses certain significant advantages over the existing models in saturated and oversaturated conditions. The results of research work show that the proposed model can provide transportation engineers or professionals with an effective tool for analysing, timing and managing the saturated or oversaturated signalised intersections.
    Keywords: signalised intersection; analytical model; vehicle delay; saturated condition; oversaturated condition; operating characteristics.

  • ARIMA based time-series analysis for forecasting of Covid-19 cases in Egypt   Order a copy of this article
    by Ibrahim Sabry, Abdel-Hamid Ismail Mourad, Amir Hussain Idrisi, Mohamed El-Wakil 
    Abstract: This novel coronavirus is one of the world's most devastating viruses at the moment and currently constitutes a major threat to human health. Globally, approx. three hundred million people have been infected, resulting in the deaths of more than five million people. The goal of this study is to understand the distribution of Covid-19 in Egypt. A mathematical model was developed using data collected from the Egyptian Ministry of Health. A major purpose of this study is to examine the distribution of Covid-19 in Egypt in order to develop an effective forecasting model. It can be used as a decision-making mechanism to administer health interventions and mitigate the transmission of contamination Covid-19. In accordance with this definition, we developed a model and then used it to predict possible Covid-19 cases in Egypt. The analysis suggests a growth trajectory for the events in the days to come. Statistics based on time series analysis and kinetic model analysis suggest that the total cases of Covid-19 pneumonia in mainland Egypt can hit 281478 after a week (1 March, 2020 through July 31, 2021), and the number of simple regenerations can hit 12. Analysis of ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and (2, 1, 3) sequence shows increasing growth in the number of events. The current model forecasts would help the government and medical personnel to plan themselves for the coming conditions and make healthcare systems more ready.
    Keywords: coronavirus; Covid-19; pandemic; ARIMA; forecast; Egypt.