International Journal of Global Warming (60 papers in press)
Regime-dependent Effects of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from China
by Dicle Ozdemir
Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the nonlinear effects of the macroeconomic variables on CO2 emission level and to determine how the cyclical patterns of carbon emission growth change along the changes in macroeconomic variables growth rate under a regime switching mechanism in China employing nonlinear Granger causality and Markov-switching dynamic regression models. The results show no bidirectional causality between carbon emission level and the macroeconomic variables used in this model. The cyclical relationship between carbon emission level and income was negative in the high emission regime, but it became positive once a low-emission growth regime was reached. Specifically, the negative sign on GDP growth under the high-emission growth regime and the positive sign on GDP growth under low-emission growth regime and, furthermore, the changing cyclical behavior of emissions growth with the continuous upward trend of GDP is compatible with the existence of an N-shaped EKC in the case of China.
Keywords: carbon emissions; economic growth; environmental Kuznets curve; trade openness; industrialization; population.
Classification of Chinas county administrative units based on carbon emissions from energy consumption and economic indicators
by Chang Liu, Yun Su
Abstract: The main anthropogenic cause of global warming is the emission of CO2. China is one of the biggest emitters with vast territory, and there are significant differences in population size, industrial structure, and economic development among county administrative units, leading to large differences in energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. The comprehensive classification of counties based on economic development and carbon emission can provide a basis for targeted emission reduction measures. Using the energy consumption method combined with allocation by population density, this paper estimated the carbon emissions of Chinas 2170 county administrative units in 2015. Then, we used cluster analysis to classify county units, obtaining twelve types. At this stage, the most common type in city municipal districts is low carbon emission-relatively low GDP, with medium emission intensity, while most county-level cities and counties belong to the low carbon emission-low GDP category with relatively high emission intensity. Then, five development paths were obtained by linear fitting. Counties with extremely high carbon emission intensity may show a reduction in emission intensity and an increase in economic level. Regarding counties with relatively low emission intensity, there are two different paths in future economic development.
Keywords: carbon emission; estimate; climate change; cluster analysis; county.
Assessment and modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from waste collection vehicles powered by different fuel types
by Ayse Burcu Yaman, Orhan Sevimoglu
Abstract: Vehicles emit greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutants during the collection of municipal solid waste. In this study, GHG emissions and global warming factors (GWF) from waste collection vehicles were calculated for four different fuel types (diesel, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electricity) in Kocaeli, Turkey. Results showed that GHG emissions were determined by using a model and manual calculations as 10,853 tons CO2-eq and 10,265 tons CO2-eq, respectively. If diesel is used, the GWF values for the model and manual calculations were determined as 18 kg CO2-eq ton-1 and 17 kg CO2-eq ton-1, respectively. Furthermore, when gasoline, CNG, and electricity were used, GWFs were calculated as 13.3 kg CO2-eq ton-1, 9.2 kg CO2-eq ton-1, and 2.6 kg CO2-eq ton-1, respectively. This study demonstrated that alternative fuels, especially electricity, has a great potential to reduce GHG emissions. In addition, opening up new transfer stations or a new landfill site can be considered as important steps in reducing GHG emissions.
Keywords: Waste collection; greenhouse gas emissions; alternative fuel vehicles; collection process model; global warming factor.
Climate change impacts on optimal reservoir operation and agricultural water allocation
by Dariush Baharlooee, Narges Zohrabi
Abstract: Considering the need to supply water and food in future periods, this study assessed the effects of climate change on the water resource system of the Ballarood reservoir that located in the northwest of Khuzestan province, Iran. The outputs of 10 general circulation models (GCMs) under two scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 has been used to simulate the effects of climate change. The results indicated an increase in average annual temperature by 2.34 (1.64) under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5). Also, an increase in the amount of agricultural water requirement for downstream and decrease in the amount of runoff into the reservoir (31% under the RCP8.5 scenario and 11% under the RCP4.5) are other results of this study. Based on this results, the increase of vulnerability (46% (21%) under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5)) and decrease reliability (41% (18%) under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5)) of reservoir water supply system is simulated in the future period (2030-2055) relative to the basis period (1980-2005).
Keywords: Climate change; Global warming; Reservoir operation; Agricultural water requirement.
The best fitted Probabilistic modeling for Seasonal Extreme Rainfall of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
by Muhammad Ali, Bulbul Jan, Faisal Ahmed Khan Afridi, Muhammad Yonus
Abstract: Extreme rainfall plays a key role in hydrological designs, resources of water management, flood hazard and land sliding in mountainous regions. In hydrological analysis, it has been a topic of interest to establish a suitable probabilistic approach for extreme rainfall. Monthly extreme rainfall of five meteorological stations of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) from 1971-2010 has been used. The percentile deviation and probabilistic models have been applied to calculate variation and return levels of seasonal extreme rainfall. The outcome of this study shows that the preferred stations of GB (Gilgit, Skardu, Bunji, Gupis and Astore) will receive rainfall greater than 107.76 mm, 140.64 mm, 69.23 mm, 85.34 mm and 153.44 mm respectively incoming 50 year return period, which are more than the extreme rainfall of 2010. The analysis also predicts that on average, Gilgit-Baltistan will receive 111.28 mm return level against 50 year return period in summer season. These results are useful for agriculture, environmental researchers, planners and decision makers to get precautionary measures in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Keywords: Seasonal Extreme Rainfall; Probabilistic Modeling; Percentile Deviation; Return levels; Return period.
Evaluation of Offshore Wind Power Plant Sustainability: A Case Study of Sinop/Gerze, Turkey
by Volkan Baser, Faruk Guner, Hilmi Zenk
Abstract: Renewable energy generation has become indispensable for many countries due to global warming, energy security and foreign dependency. Sinop is an area worth investigating with its wind potential. In this study, Sinop / Gerze region was examined in terms of offshore wind power plant (OWPP) installation. In the study, the appropriate site selection was made with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique, which is one of the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis (MCDM) methods. Then wind potential and power calculations were performed. The cost of the required investment and the payback period of the investment were calculated with the levelized cost method. The payback period of the investment, including operating and maintenances expenses, has been calculated as approximately 11 years.
Keywords: renewable energy; offshore wind energy; site selection; MCDM; analytical hierarchy process; levelized cost method;.
Effects of Liquid Fuels and Alcohols on the Pollutant Emissions of a Spark Ignition Engine
by GÜVEN GONCA, Ibrahim Genc
Abstract: The presented work investigates the impacts of various liquid fuels and alcohols including methanol, ethanol, toluene, hexane, benzene, isooctane and gasoline on a spark ignition (SI) engine's performance and combustion products. A verified mathematical model with empirical data has been utilized to indicate the various fuel type impacts on the emission outputs and combustion specifications of a SI engine. An artificial neural network (ANN) model for the system is also presented to show that the system can be approximated more densely compared to numeric methods with the advantage of less computational complexity.
Keywords: Alcohols; combustion; liquid fuels; pollutant emissions; spark ignition engine; artificial neural networks.
Estimation of Shipping Emissions in the Iskenderun Gulf, Turkey
by Aydin Tokuslu
Abstract: Marine ports are the most important source of air pollution in the region and vessels are the most polluting emission source. The Iskenderun Gulf is the main industrial and transportation region affected by the emissions emitted by its 8 ports and industrial facilities. The air pollutants generated from vessels in the Iskenderun Gulf by using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data was created for the Iskenderun Gulf. In this study, total emissions from vessels were estimated as 2.551 t y-1 for NOX, 135.100 t y-1 for CO2, 968 t y-1 for SOX, 99 t y-1 for VOC, 139 t y-1 for PM for 2018 based on ship activity-based method. General cargo and bulk carriers are responsible for 89% of the total ship-borne emissions in the gulf, and containers, tanker, chemicals and other vessels such as passenger, ro-ro cargo, tugs follow it. Emissions produced from vessels are mainly emitted at cruising mode (78%), followed by hotelling mode (21%). Port emissions in the gulf may have negative effects on the health of a minimum of 32.364 people living 1 km from the port area including other city emissions (domestic heating, road traffic, and industry). The environmental cost of the port emissions for each pollutant was estimated as $82 million and $17.146 per ship call. All kinds of emission sources in the ports area should be detected and measures to decrease the emissions should be implemented. This is the first study to estimate port emissions in the Iskenderun Gulf.
Keywords: Iskenderun Gulf; environmental pollution; shipping emissions; environmental costs.
Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of heating and cooling degree-day in China 19512016
by Jing-Li Fan, Bin Zeng, Jia-Wei Hu, Yao Liu, Xian Zhang
Abstract: As the climate change aggravates in the future, it is important for Chinas energy planning and management to consider energy demand for space heating and cooling. Based on the daily average temperature data of 835 meteorological stations nationwide from 1951 to 2016, the temporal and spatial characteristics of heating degree-day (HDD) and cooling degree-day (CDD) in various regions in China were examined in the context of climate change. Four key patterns were identified in the analysis. (1) The correlation coefficient between HDD and CDD and the annual average temperature was highly significant. The annual average HDD has a negative correlation with interannual and interdecadal average temperatures; the annual average CDD has an obvious positive correlation. (2) After the 1980s, the national HDD decreased significantly and the CDD increased significantly. (3) HDD saw a downward trend over time in all regions, with the fastest decline in North China and the slowest in South China. CDD in all regions showed an increasing trend, with the fastest rise in South China and the slowest in the Northeast. (4) At a provincial level, HDD decreased from north to south with the CDD showing the inverse pattern. The history performance of HDD and CDD in China may provide implications for addressing climate change.
Keywords: Climate change; Cooling degree-day; Energy demand; Heating degree-day.
Effect of endophytic-assisted phytoremediation on plant growth and chromium (Cr) toxicity reduction in contaminated soil
by Uzma Noreen, Aliya Khalid, Narmeen Inderyas, Shahzada Amani-Room, Majid Hussain
Abstract: This study focused on phytoremediation of chromium (Cr) through endophytic bacteria. Four endophytic bacteria i.e. Pseudomonas putida (CEN2), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CEN3), Acinetobacter baumanni (CEN4), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CEN5) were selected for phytoremediation experiments to investigate its effects on plant growth and Cr uptake. Phytoremediation experiment was carried out by using one hyper accumulator (Brassica napus) and one non-hyper accumulator plant (Coriandrum sativum), grown in agricultural soil amended with three different concentrations 50ppm, 100ppm and 200ppm of Cr for 60 days. In Brassica napus, endophytic consortia showed maximum root, shoot elongation and vigour index at all concentrations. In Coriandrum sativum CEN5 strain showed maximum root, shoot length and vigour index. Brassica napus with consortia produced maximum fresh and dry biomass as compared to the control treatments. Therefore, endophytic-assisted phytoremediation could be a promising tool for mitigating heavy metals toxicity from polluted soil without any negative effects on plant growth.
Keywords: Chromium. Phytoremediation. Endophytes. Brassica napus. Coriander sativum.
The economic effects of climate change on Cereal Yield in Greece: a spatial analysis selection model
by IOANNA GKIZA, Stefanos Nastis, Manos Basil, Eftichios Sartzetakis
Abstract: The aim of this study is to analyze spatially the economic impacts of climate change on cereal yield in Greece. The paper employs the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to determine the spatially varying relationships between geophysical, soil, climatic and social variables and their effects on crop yield based on both historical climate observations and a future climate emission scenario. While the effects of climate change on cereal yields across Europe and the world have been widely analyzed by studying specific areas, the literature in the region of Greece has not investigated the effects of climate change using data at a high spatial analysis in grid cells. Thus, in order to achieve this analysis, the present research examines the effects of climate change using data at a high spatial 10 x 10 km2 grid cells. The results showed that crop yield is clearly influenced by spatial agrophysical and climate variables. The future climate emission scenario, predicts an average decrease in rainfall, a rise in temperature and an increase in severe weather events. The results of the paper indicate that a reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature will cause different changes in average cereal yield in neighboring regions in Greece due to spatial heterogeneity between the variables
Keywords: Climate Changes; Spatial Analysis; Cereal Yield.
Fabrication of CA/PEG/MWCNTs composite membranes for enhanced CO2/CH4 separation
by Muhammad Fahad Yousaf, Sarah Farrukh, Arshad Hussain, Abid Hussain
Abstract: Gas separation process through membrane technology has greatly improved green-house effect. Membrane technology is considered important for gas separation. The aim of this work was to study the effect of membrane thickness with respect to gas permeance and tensile strength. Single layer flat sheet membrane with thickness of 45
Keywords: Composite membranes; Gas separation; Multi-walled carbon nano-tubes; Polyethylene glycol; Polyvinyl Alcohol; Selective layer.
Reverse Electrodialysis Salinity Gradient Power Potential of Treated Municipal Wastewaters Used as Diluted Solution
by Ali ZOUNGRANA, Ça?la AKSEL, Oruç Kaan TÜRK, Mehmet ÇAKMAKCI
Abstract: In this study, a reverse electrodialysis (RED) stack fed with natural seawater, treated municipal wastewaters and synthetic solutions was operated to investigate the energy extraction potential of different feed solutions. The synthetic solutions resulted in the highest power density. Among the wastewaters, ultrafiltration (UF) effluent was more attractive for RED compared to membrane bioreactor (MBR) and advanced biological treatment (ABT) effluents. The 6 days average power densities for the combination UF-seawater, MBR-seawater, ABT-seawater were 0.52, 0.50 and 0.48 W.m-2, respectively, while the synthetic solutions generated 0.57 W.m-2. No significant difference between the power densities of synthetic and natural solutions was observed, due to the high quality of the treated wastewaters. The SEM-EDX analysis showed that Mg2+ and Ca2+ were present in natural solutions and may have contributed to reducing the power output. The SEM and FTIR results revealed a slight deposition of pollutants on the ions exchange membranes (IEMs) surface, but no fouling, scaling or structural modification was observed within the 6 days RED operation. Treated municipal wastewaters discharged into seawater are important sources of energy with RED, however, high quality of the feed solution together with improved, highly selective and cost-effective IEMs are necessary to enhance and optimize the power output.
Keywords: Ions Exchange Membranes; Reverse electrodialysis; Salinity gradient power; Seawater; Wastewater.
Selection Criteria of Municipal Solid Wastes for Thermo-Chemical Conversion processes by using Proximate and Ultimate analysis
by Renjith Krishnan, Lalhmingsanga Hauchhum, Rajat Gupta, Gokul Gopan
Abstract: Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is mostly known as garbage or trash which is generated due to day-to-day life human activities. It is the commercial, medical and residential waste generated in a particular area or municipal either in solid or semi-solid form, excluding industrial hazardous wastes. These wastes create environmental pollution in land, water and air, hence, the proper disposal of MSW is a challenging factor globally. This paper presents MSW disposal process using thermo-chemical processes such as combustion, gasification and pyrolysis. The best thermo-chemical process for its individual waste can be formulated by using selection criteria from proximate and ultimate analysis. For the analysis purpose, 28 different types of MSW were collected and found that 13 samples are good for combustion while 6 samples and 5 samples are good for gasification and pyrolysis respectively. The MSW collected are in the categories of hospital wastes, domestic/household wastes, industrial/constructional wastes, institutional/school wastes and shop/hotel wastes
Keywords: Municipal Solid Waste; Combustion; Gasification; Pyrolysis; Proximate analysis; Ultimate analysis.
Reuse of agro-wastes to treat wastewater containing dyestuff: sorption process with potato and pumpkin seed wastes
by Hüseyin CÜCE, Fulya AYDIN TEMEL
Abstract: The extent of study is to evaluate the adsorption performance of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and pumpkin seed (Cucurbita pepo L.) shells as agro-industrial waste materials to remove Methylene Blue dye from aqueous solutions. The process mechanism were determined by kinetic models and adsorption isotherms. It was observed that the best conformity fitted to pseudo second order kinetic model (R2>0.999) and Freundlich isotherm (R2 >0.982). The maximum adsorption capacities were determined as 161.4 mg/g and 277.8 mg/g for pumpkin seed shells and potato shells, respectively. The thermoynamic data express that the adsorption of methylene blue with potato peels was reversible, spontaneous, exothermic, controlled by chemical interactions while the feasibility, randomness, spontaneous, and endothermic nature on pumpkin seed shell. From results, it was determined that potato and pumpkin seed shells can be used effectively as a cheap and viable alternative adsorbent.
Keywords: methylene blue; sorption; agricultural wastes; kinetic; isotherm; thermodynamic.
Proximity to Locally Unwanted Land Uses as an Indicator in Environmental Justice Measurement through Urban Plans
by Ilgi Atay Kaya
Abstract: This study aims at expanding the scope of environmental justice measurement by evaluating the development zones in urban plans besides existing settlements. Focusing on the proximities to Locally Unwanted Land Uses (LULUs) in Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, distance-based measurement method of this study utilized Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Case-based results indicate that the trend of environmental (in)justice is continued through the urban plan of Afyonkarahisar. The disadvantaged settlements in terms of LULU proximity have the highest proportion (29,7%) of the population whereas the advantaged settlements have the lowest proportion (8,7%). In the disadvantaged group, there are 4 urban settlements with 219923 people whereas there are 6 development zones and no rural settlements with such high scores. The study emphasizes the gradual measurement method by using weighted scores of multiple distances to all LULUs from urban, rural, existing, and proposed settlements rather than a fixed distance to a certain facility from existing urban settlements.
Keywords: locally unwanted land uses; geographic information systems; environmental justice; environmental justice measurement; urban planning; plan evaluation; Afyonkarahisar; Turkey; proximity; existing settlements; development zones.
Energy utilization related climate change foresight for post COVID-19 era pandemic
by T.A.E. H.O. WOO
Abstract: During the COVID-19 epidemic, global energy utilization is reduced due to the depression of the global economy and the changed social behavior. It is analyzed that the energy pattern is affected by the social matters of the disease trend where the epidemic behavior is significantly important to present the prospect. The energy consumption has been reduced following the depression of the national economy. The results show the pandemic related climate change effect as Energy Factor, Infected Model, and Climate Change Effect with the reproductive number. The comparisons changing of the reproductive number is done. Table shows the list of new estimations for energy-related CO2 emissions following the modeling. There are three kinds of the reproductive numbers and these show the CO2 emissions. The general modeling in atmospheric behavior can be improved in the reliability using the pandemic or chemical hazards, which can make the global warming. Hence, the extended variables in the analysis of the global warming enhance the analysis quality.
Keywords: Energy; Global warming; Climate change effect; Pandemic; Carbon.
How Effective is Carbon Offset? Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Reduction Methods by Using MCDM Techniques: A Case Study of Global Automotive Factory
by Tolga Meriç Yanar, Alparslan Serhat Demir
Abstract: Dependence on fossil fuel has led to a significant increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In order to reduce CO2 emissions, industrial enterprises try to utilize various methods such as obtaining energy from renewable power plants, afforestation and Carbon offset. In particular, companies have frequently applied the carbon offset method in recent years. In this study, it was aimed to determine the most appropriate method to reduce CO2 emissions caused by the energy consumption of an automotive industry company. Carbon dioxide is composed of the electricity consumption of equipment such as motor, fan and pump in the production processes of an automotive operation facility as well as the natural gas consumption of heating systems such as furnaces and hot water boilers. With this study conducted, Analytical hierarchy and Multimoora methods, which are among the multi-criteria decision-making techniques, were used together to select the optimum method among the CO2 reduction methods. As a result of the study that assesses the effectiveness of hydroelectric power station, solar electrical system, solar thermal energy system, afforestation and carbon offset alternatives from various angles, it is concluded that hydroelectric power plant is the most suitable option for ensuring CO2 reduction for the automotive company. It has been revealed that CO2 offset, which is often preferred by companies, is not such an effective alternative.
Keywords: Carbon offset; CO2 reduction; Emission; Analytical hierarchy process; Multimoora.
Continued fossil fuel emissions and cognition impairment
by Alberto Boretti
Abstract: It has been claimed that the dangerous rise in atmospheric CO2 levels will impede our brain functions, and namely that the continued fossil fuel emissions will impair cognition. In particular, it is said that indoor CO2 levels may reach levels well above 1,000 p.p.m. and this may be harmful to cognition by the end of this century. It is shown as even continuing at the present rate the atmospheric CO2 concentration is not expected to exceed 690 p.p.m. by 2100. Since no significant effects on cognitive performance are seen also for indoor CO2 levels much higher than 1,000 p.p.m., opening the window of crowded spaces could be a simple but effective mitigation strategy better than building up wind and solar capacity.
Keywords: Fossil fuel emission; global warming; impairment of cognition.
Smart City A Sustainable Solution for Enhancing Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Mitigation in Saudi Arabia
by Laith Hadidi, Sayed Rahman, Ayman Magrabi
Abstract: Smart cities are considered as the future of urban habitation which will accommodate increased population with optimized resources utilization including power, water, and transportation. This study investigated the potential of the implementation of four smart cities in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. The information and communications technology for the proposed cities was selected considering licensing and operation regulations, size of data, power consumption, and infrastructure cost. An appropriate methodology was developed to estimate the savings in power, water, and transportation sectors. The financial analysis was conducted based on the net present value over 10 years with a discount rate of 12%. The analysis was positive with significant savings estimated at $170,214,824. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the range of savings will vary between $75,701,012 and $170,281,940. A climate change mitigation analysis was conducted to estimate the co-benefits of the proposed smart cities focusing on electricity and water use reduction. The estimated greenhouse gas emission reduction will vary between 1.82 million tons and 6.06 million tons.
Keywords: Smart city; energy efficiency; greenhouse gas emissions; climate change mitigation; and Saudi Arabia.
Performance of Rich Solvent Flashing for MEA-based Post Combustion CO2 Capture
by Ali Hasnain, Usman Ali, Muhammad Imran
Abstract: High energy demand has led to the increased power production from the fossil power plants which is the largest source of CO2. Monoethanolamine based post-combustion CO2 capture is a developed technology to mitigate CO2, however, it still needs attention towards process modification concerning energy requirements. Rich solvent flashing is the suggested modifications which is discussed in the present work and is used to minimize the overall energy. The minimum reboiler duty was observed at 20 %, 30 % and 40 % split of the lean solvent at certain approach temperatures. The reboiler duty of 3.201 MJ/kg CO2 was observed at the approach temperatures of 5 oC and 10 oC with the split fraction of 40 %. The system is also modelled using single, double and three flash drums where three flash drums indicates the minimum duty with 5 % decrease from the base case model.
Keywords: Post combustion CO2 capture; Rich solvent flashing; MEA; Flash drum.
GLOBAL WARMING - PRO AND CONTRARY INTERPRETATIONS USING MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF TWO CITIES
by Gheorghe Duca, Sergei Travin, Ashok Vaseashta, Viorica Gladchi, Yuri Kozlov
Abstract: While there is abundant scientific agreement on climate change, there are polarizing views over global warming. Mathematically sound strategies are necessary to plan appropriate interventions. Hence, monthly and annual averaged temperature time series for the period 1950-2017 for two observation stations in two cities, viz., Chisinau, Moldova and Moscow, Russia are considered. The statistical analysis shows that the correlation between these two geographically different locations for monthly data is higher than the annual averaging method. The series discussed here is described by a new model using seasonal harmonic oscillations plus random noise. Within the available accuracy, the long-term trend is not statistically significant, and the data can be described using a regression equation. All discrepancies between the regression formula and the actual data fit perfectly to the normal Gaussian distribution. The general hypothesis of \"global warming\" using the time series studied here cannot be confirmed, instead it provided a negative trend. Connection of temperature with energy balance and its influence on greenhouse gases are discussed.
Keywords: Global Warming; Statistical Analysis; Correlation; Weather Stations; Temperature and Energy Balance.
Studying the impact of Climate Change on the Average Temperature using CanESM2 and HadCM3 Modelling in Iraq
by Waqed Hassan
Abstract: The current and projected impacts of climate change vary locally, nationally and regionally, as the effects of climate change impacts on water security, livelihoods, infrastructures, and ecosystems vary by region and country, as well as between societies and individuals. Nevertheless, average temperature in a region is considered to be a particularly important vulnerability factor. The main objective of the current study was thus to investigate the expected changes in average annual temperature through to the end of the 21st century in the south-west of Iraq, using a base period of 1979 to 2013. Changes in the average temperature were predicted for the south west of Iraq during the period 2020 to 2099 using two general circulation models (GCMs), CanESM2 and HadCM3, based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and emission scenarios A2 and B2. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) used to downscale the climatic data referred to a baseline (historical) period of 1979 to 2013, and the daily average (maximum and minimum) temperatures projected for the future study period were given for seven meteorological stations in Iraq. Analysis of the results suggests that average temperature production utilizing CanESM2 based on RCP2.6 gives the best performance across all stations. Generally, the results show rises in average annual temperatures ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 ? over the study area by the end of the 21st century, an expected increase that would significantly affect surface and groundwater resources due to increased evaporation, potentially leading to increased water scarcity.
Keywords: Statistical downscaling model; Temperature changes; Climate change; RCP scenarios.
Effects of microorganisms from cow and buffalo rumen on biogas production from Napier grass and rice straw
by Suriya Sawanon, Piyanee Sangsri, Nusara Sinbuathong
Abstract: Biogas is a fuel that is an affordable and provide resilience to climate change. In this study, microorganisms from cow and buffalo rumen were identified that were appropriate for digestion of Napier grass and rice straw alone and in co-digestion using cow manure to produce biogas. The feedstock concentration was 20% by fresh weight. The methane (CH4) yield was the key performance indicator for biogas production. The microorganism source had different effects on the biogas production from the digestion of Napier grass and rice straw and the co-digestion of these feedstocks with cow manure. The microorganisms from cow rumen were appropriate for the digestion of Napier grass, while those from buffalo rumen were appropriate for the digestion of rice straw. However, cow rumen microorganisms were appropriate for mixed feedstock co-digestion using 10% of either Napier grass or rice straw and 10% cow manure in 80% water.
Keywords: biogas; climate change; digestion; global warming; microorganism; rumen; Napier grass; rice straw.
Assessment of Climate Extremes from Historical Data (1960-2013) of Soan River Basin of Pakistan
by Filza Fatima Rizvi, Bashir Ahmed, Saddam Hussain, Asif Khan, Mohsin Raza, Munir Shahid
Abstract: Climate changes are affecting every aspect of life. Global warming and the melting of glaciers are raising at a fast rate. This study presents an analysis of long-term historical climate data (1960-2013) of four climate stations; (Islamabad, Murree, Jhelum, and Mianwali) located in the Soan River basin of Pakistan. Climate extreme analysis has been carried out, using four (04) temperature and five (05) rainfall indices. Four temperature extremes (FDO, SU25, Tmax. Mean, Tmin. Mean) showed positive trends in all stations except the trend of FDO Islamabad and Jhelum stations. Likewise, negative trends have been observed in Tmin. Mean of Murree and in Tmax. Mean of Mianwali station. Also, five rainfall extremes (CDD, CWD, PCRPTOT, R10 mm, R20 mm) showed positive trends in all stations except the trend of CDD in Islamabad, the trend of PCRPTOT in Jhelum, the trend of CWD and CDD in Murree station. Furthermore, result trends from non-parametric techniques (Man-Kendal and Sens slope) and through the indices estimation from RCLIMDEX are consistent. There is a need for time to study and analyze the climate extremes and historical events before moving towards the climate change adaptations and the invention of modern climate-smart technologies based on past climate extreme events over the basin.
Keywords: Agriculture; Climate Variability; Climate Indices; RCLIMDEX; Soan River Basin.
Effects of COVID-19 on energy savings and emission reduction: A case study
by Fatemeh Nadi, Mustafa Özilgen
Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, because of the downturn of the global economy, energy sector asked for the lowest prices for its products. Consequently, investors may not be willing to invest for the renewable energy projects in the short term after the pandemic. Therefore, every possible effort should be done in the post-pandemic era not to lose the clean energy gains of the recent history. Iranian bakeries are among the most energy consuming bakeries in the world and produce 15 million t of bread annually. Three different scenarios are suggested in the present study to make it possible to save 45%, i.e., 105 MJ t-1 year-1, of the energy and increase the cumulative degree of perfection of the traditional bread making processes by approximately 37%. These suggestions may increase the renewability indicator of the traditional bread making sector by about 70%. Such an improvement may be a major attempt toward protecting the clean energy gains of the pre-panemic era.
Keywords: COVID-19; GHG emission; Renewable energy utilization; Traditional breads; Sustainability indicators.
Fuzzy C-means clustering for rainfall signature detection
by Izhar Che Zainol Rashid, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Hazura Mohamed, Suhaila Zainudin
Abstract: Signature detection of several weather stations is important to give insight into the behaviour of the specific stations. Understanding the rainfall behaviour has many advantages, such as preparing mitigation initiatives and developing early warning systems in specific areas to avoid abrupt changes that may affect the area. Data were collected from three main stations in the state of Selangor, Malaysia from 2009 to 2011. A comparison of the FCM with another fuzzy clustering algorithm, namely the Gustafson-Kessel (GK) proves that in terms of number of iterations, the FCM consumes less processing time and gives the optimal number of clusters. Through verification tests using three different validity indices, the performance of the FCM could compete with that of the GK to produce a better validity index. Statistical analysis using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test showed different parameters representing different stations, indicating the contributing factor in the formation of the cluster.
Keywords: fuzzy clustering; fuzzy c-means; Guftasson-Kessel; weather data; data mining.
Change in energy demand and CO2 emission in Turkey from the period 1981-1998 to the period 2007-2019
by Murat Bulut
Abstract: Due to population increase and change in climate, energy demand and CO2 emissions have risen. This study investigated the effects of climate and population change on energy demand in Turkey between periods of 1981-1998 and 2007-2019. In addition, CO2 emissions based on heating and cooling degree-days were examined since CO2 release with increased energy consumption is a major environmental impact that can contribute to climate change. The results showed that total heating degree-days decreased by 11.21% and total cooling degree-days increased by 38.98% due to climate change. The total product of population heating and cooling degree-days were increased by 14.42% from 1981-1998 to 2007-2009. CO2 emissions from heating in 78 cities decreased, while CO2 emissions from cooling in 77 cities increased. Results can be useful for planning future energy consumption in buildings as the climate changes.
Keywords: Heating degree-days; cooling degree-days; degree-days; combined energy demand; potential energy demand; climate change; energy consumption; base temperature; person-cooling-degree-days; person-heating-degree-days; CO2 emission.
Biodiversity and biotechnological potential of marine derived actinobacteria from Black Sea coastal zone
by Kadriye Özcan
Abstract: Actinobacteria are economically and biotechnologically valuable prokaryotes. It is crucial that new group of actinobacteria from unexplored habitats, marine environmental conditions, will be pursued as sources of novel bioactive secondary metabolites Therefore, actinobacterial strains were isolated the Black Sea sediments and screened for production of antimicrobial metabolites and industrial enzymes. The isolates were identified with sequencing analysis by using 16S rDNA regions. Antimicrobial activity was determined by disc diffusion method by using extracts of fermentation broth inoculated with the isolates against seven pathogenic organisms. According to results, the majority of isolates belonged to Streptomyces genus. Their anticandidal activity and ability to produce cellulase enzyme were remarkable. In addition, it was determined that the isolates which not shown antimicrobial activity produced at least one industrial enzyme. As a result, the potential of isolates to be used as an antibiotic and enzyme producer in the industrial field is quite high.
Keywords: antimicrobial activity; disc diffusion; industrial enzyme production; marine derived actinobacteria; screening.
Responsiveness of rice yield to climate change in China: Historical analysis and future projections
by Yan Yu, Qingsong Tian, Fengxian Yan
Abstract: Understanding the meteorological driving factors of changes in rice production is critical to global food security. In this study, we apply Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline algorithm to examine the effect of climatic variables on rice yield in China. We find that the importance of temperature is much higher than that of precipitation. The hinge function shows significant nonlinear and interaction effects in yield response function. Based on the projected climate change scenarios of lower rate global warming (SSP1-2.6) and higher rate global warming (SSP5-8.5), we further predict the rice yield, and find that the yield will increase by 0.09% and 0.28% under both scenarios in the medium term. However, the continuous climate change in the long term will lead to yield loss (0.39%) in SSP1-2.6, and a higher loss (7.39%) in SSP5-8.5. The difference in predicted rice yield in 15 provinces also indicates a heterogeneous impact of climate change.
Keywords: climate change; global warming; rice yield; MARS; temperature.
Is the online global mean sea level information reliable?
by Alberto Boretti
Abstract: The purpose of the work is to assess the reliability of satellite altimeter global mean sea level information provided online through consistency, with other products such as ocean temperatures from thermometers or relative mean sea level records from tidal gauges, and stability of the proposed time series. Satellite altimeter global mean sea level information has been sourced since the time the service was started, and changes to the proposed information for the past introduced through updates have been evidenced. The information has also been compared for similarities with other sourced information for ocean temperature or extent of ice on land, as well as relative sea levels, to highlight consistency. The satellite altimeter global mean sea level is a mostly computational product. The result is unstable, as characterized by significant changes for the past results introduced in subsequent reconstructions. The result is conflicting with the measurements of ocean temperature, which indicates a smaller thermal expansion contribution. The result is otherwise consistent with the data of ice on land, which is based on similar computational procedures. The result is conflicting with the tide gauge records indicating local sea level stability. Consistency and stability analyses of the satellite altimeter global mean sea level are not appropriately covered in the literature. The present analysis relies on the quality of data that is publicly available in the data set. Updated versions regularly replace older versions sometimes changing dramatically the past without maintaining the older version. All the versions of the data sets including raw supporting data and code used to generate the results should be made available to the scientific community for independent assessment by peers. A record that keeps on changing the past without any publication of past and present raw data and code used to compute the record hardly can qualify as being correct. Policymaking should be based on reliable data satisfying quality assurance standards.
Keywords: sea level rise; satellite altimetry; tide gauges; ocean temperature.
What's the Roles of Population, Economy, and Energy on CO2 emissions in Henan of China
by Xuyi Liu
Abstract: This study aims to investigate the influence of population size, economic growth, energy intensity, and CO2 intensity on CO2 emissions, and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis based on Kaya identity and Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model in Henan province in China. Unit root test indicates that each time series data is stationary in 1st difference. Three co-integration tests suggest that the selected model is co-integrated. Short- and long-run estimates, based on the autoregressive distributed lag method, support the EKC hypothesis. Population size may lead to the reduction of emissions, while energy intensity and CO2 intensity can increase the emissions. Based on the vector error correction model, the findings of Granger causal linkages between the selected time series data are mixed. Based on empirical results, some policy implications are given to policymakers.
Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve; autoregressive distributed lag; energy intensity; economic growth; CO2 emissions; Kaya; population; co-integration; STIRPAT; vector error correction model.
Analysis of carbon emission and its influencing factors of Shanghais textile and apparel industry
by Yunfeng Chen, Yiduo Yang, Lirong Sun, Xiaopeng Wang
Abstract: This research calculated the amount of carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Shanghais textile and apparel industry from 2001 to 2014. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method was applied to identify the factors that affect the carbon emission and decoupling model was used to prove the relationship between economic output and carbon emission. The results showed that the total amount of carbon emission of Shanghais textile and apparel industry decreased with fluctuation from 2001 to 2014. Among the three sub-industries, textile industry made the greatest contribution to the total carbon emission, and the carbon emission intensity of textile industry also was the largest. Industrial technology was the major driving factor of the mitigation of carbon emission of Shanghais textile and apparel industry while industrial scale was the major inhibiting factor. Economic output and carbon emission of Shanghais textile and apparel industry showed a coupling relationship in most years of the selected research time series.
Keywords: decoupling relationship; textile and apparel industry; decomposition; carbon emission.
An Assessment of GHG Mitigation Potential by Electricity expansion planning using LEAP model
by Karunanithi K, RAJA S P, Rayaguru N K, Saravanan S, Kannan S
Abstract: In this paper, Electricity Expansion Planning (EEP) problem is analyzed for an Indian sate, Tamil Nadu (TN) for a period of thirty years from 2019 to 2048 using Long range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) software with conventional and Renewable Energy Resources (RES). Two scenarios, Base line scenario and Green House Gas (GHG) mitigation scenario are developed. In base line scenario, the present energy consumption pattern is followed for next thirty years whereas in GHG mitigation scenario, usage of electricity is encouraged for their energy needs in all sectors and the electricity should be derived from renewable energy resources.
Keywords: Global Warming potential; Electricity expansion planning; Long range energy alternative planning; Reliability and social cost.
Assessing the Impact of Global Warming on Productivity in Emerging Economies of Asia
by Shahzad Alvi, Faisal Jamil, Ather Ahmed
Abstract: Over the past decade, a consensus has emerged among scientists that the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions generated by human activities are responsible for changing the earths climate, which in turn has increased human vulnerability. It is observed that increasing temperatures cause work stress, fatigue and decrease the cognitive abilities of workers. It also a?ects machines' performance, thereby decreasing labor and capital productivity. Given the importance of productivity for the long-term economic growth and sustainability of economies, this study investigates the impact of global warming on productivity by using a panel data of selected emerging economies of Asia covering a time span of 27 years ranging between 1990 and 2016. The Fixed Effects model has been used for empirical estimation. The results indicate that global warming has turned out to be a major source of economic activity loss. Besides other ramifications, it is a major cause of a decrease in productivity in the factors of production. The projections carried out in the study present an alarming scenario. In particular, the productivity in Bangladesh, Pakistan, China, and India will be most severely affected by global warming unless remedial measures are taken. This study, therefore, recommends the need for corrective and adaptive measures for mitigating the impact of climate change for sustainable economic growth and development across the regional countries.
Keywords: Climate Change; Global Warming; Economic Growth; Sustainability; Total factor productivity; Mitigation; Fixed effect.
Regression Based Comparative Analysis of Pollutants in Biogas and Natural-Gas-Blend Combustion Outputs
by Asfaw Beyene, Nicholas Bonse
Abstract: Biogas is a renewable energy source with an imperative role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As such, it has become scalable and is currently exhibiting a surge in production capacity. In this work, we compare the combustion pollutants produced from biogas and their fossil fuel counterpart, natural gas, to determine optimum combustion conditions. The process of the study was broken up into pollutant classification, combustion model selection, and regression model analysis. Pollutants are evaluated based on global warming potential, local air quality standards, and effective heat transfer to determine optimum combustion conditions. Four pollutants, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), nitrogen oxide (NOX), and carbon monoxide (CO) are evaluated. For the combustion model, a perfectly stirred Chemkin reactor with kinetic pathways created by the CRECK Polimi Database was selected. To rank the combustion outputs, a logistic regression was developed using the least toxic outcomes to make a threshold for the combustion processes. The results of the study made it clear that there is no combustion condition in which all the pollutants can be minimized, mainly because the carbon monoxide levels rebound as the combustion temperature falls. However, the study did determine that reducing the combustion temperature and the relative methane content of the fuel - air mixture results in lower pollutant outputs. The effect of relative methane content on the combustion pollutants was determined by the fuel performing better as the biogas content was increased.
Keywords: Combustion; Pollution; Emission; Regression analysis; Biogas Ranking.
Does an offset in the airlines emission of CO2 make any difference?
by Alberto Boretti
Abstract: The airlines' emission of CO2 was considered a major environmental threat to the environment, driving the need for immediate carbon offsets and drastic reductions by 2050. The Covid19 experiment demonstrates as a drastic reduction of the airlines' emission of CO2 over 1 year had no impact on the atmospheric concentration of CO2. The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is the result of a much more complex situation where the changes to the environment, in general, depend on many anthropogenic and natural forcings. This makes the offset of the airlines emission of CO2 a purely philosophical exercise unable to make any difference in the real world.
Keywords: Covid19; fossil fuel emissions; airlines’ emission of CO2; carbon offset; atmospheric concentration of CO2.
Numerical investigation of CO2 and NOx emission in a CFB combustor with flue gas recycle and oxy-fuel combustion redesign
by Zhenxing Li, Shaohua Wu, Yanhong Hao
Abstract: Flue gas recirculation (FGR) technology and oxy-fuel combustion strategy are combined to recycle CO2 in a CFB combustor and to limit the emission of NOx and CO2. The combustion process in O2/N2 and O2/CO2 atmospheres is numerically investigated in the CFB combustor. The NOx emission can be effectively reduced using FGR technology both in O2/N2 atmosphere or O2/CO2 atmosphere, which is inversely proportional to the FGR ratio. With O2/CO2 mixtures as the oxidant, the average combustion temperature is lower than that with O2/N2 mixtures when the mole fraction of O2 is 21%. However, increasing FGR ratio has little effect on NOx emission and CO2 enrichment, even if CO2 gas is enriched in the flue gas. While using O2/CO2 mixtures as the oxidant, CO2 could account for more than 90 vol.% in the dried flue gas, thus the CO2 can be easily captured from the flue gas.
Keywords: Flue gas recycle; O2/CO2 atmosphere; CFD simulation; Circulating fluidized bed combustor.
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES ON THE REGIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEMS AND RESOURCES
by Faisal Nawaz, Syed Ahmad Hassan
Abstract: Among the number of factors affecting the watershed ecosystem, climate is the unique having significant links with systems and water resources. Precipitation, temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover and bright sunshine are the major components affecting climate change. Their impacts on local hydroclimatic variables are very crucial and cannot be studied at the regional level. Global Climate Models are the most sophisticated and numerical based coupled method used for future projections of hydroclimatic change using different emission scenarios. The objective of this paper is to examine the hydroclimatic variables to analyse the past, present and future behaviours and their change using the statistical downscaling method. The statistical downscaling model, multiple linear regression and vector autoregression are utilized to calibrate and validate future local scale temperature, rainfall and river flow hydrology. The predicted values of temperature, rainfall and river flow from these approaches show significant results with both calibration and validation phases. Statistical investigations found that the vector autoregression method produces relatively better results. Hence, this may be the best option for the future generation of climate and hydrological conditions of the Pakistan region.
Keywords: climate change; global climate models; vector autoregression; statistical downscaling model; temperature; rainfall; river flow hydrology.
Assessing maximum soluble combined heavy metals not causing inhibition to brewery sludge in anaerobic wastewater treatment
by Nusara Sinbuathong, Sutha Khaodhiar
Abstract: The effect of varying the soluble concentration of cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) on methane production and chemical oxygen demand removal was systematically investigated to reveal the soluble combined heavy metal concentration and the mass of soluble combined heavy metals loading to microorganisms that cause anaerobic system malfunctions. The critical value of soluble combined metal concentration was proposed as a model allowing soluble combined metals to cause 20% inhibition and still provide protection for the process. The proposed equation to protect the anaerobic system was K = (Zn/32.7 + Cd/56.2 + Cu/31.8), where K is the maximum soluble combined metal concentration that cannot exceed 0.0038 mEq/L, and Zn, Cd, and Cu are the soluble combined heavy metal concentrations in wastewater measured in milligrams per liter. The mass of soluble combined metals loading to microorganisms cannot exceed 0.38 mEq/kg of mixed liquor volatile suspended solids (MLVSS). The soluble combined metals caused synergistic inhibition and caused system failure at concentrations exceeding 0.01 mEq/L or 1.0 mEq/kg MLVSS.
Keywords: Anaerobic digestion; biogas; brewery sludge; heavy metal; inhibition.
ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND RISING CANCER RATES: CASE OF NORTH CYPRUS
by Kezban Alpan
Abstract: The consequences of climate change and global warming have become irrefutable. Scientists are working to change the alarming scenario awaiting humanity in the future. On the other hand, they have proved that the increasing trend of many life-threaten diseases, such as cancer, are caused by global warming. In this research, data collected from national and international databases were analyzed and compared. The aim of this research is presenting the relationship between increasing temperature anomalies and rising cancer trend. As a result of the study, it is determined that the rising global surface temperature and increasing cancer rates are directly related. In the study, data related to Northern Cyprus were also examined. According to the findings; poor waste management and uncontrolled carbon dioxide emissions are responsible for raising cancer rates and cardiovascular diseases in North Cyprus.
Keywords: Global Warming; Climate Change; Cancer; Cardiovascular Diseases; North Cyprus; Waste Management; Greenhouse Gases.
Special Issue on: GCGW-2019 Studies Associated with Global Warming
An Experimental Evaluation of Indirect Direct Evaporative Cooling Unit for Hot Climate
by Bourhan Tashtoush, Nelson Chilengwe, Mohammad Musthafa, Yousef Al Horr
Abstract: Direct and indirect evaporative cooling system is experimentally investigated using a plate heat exchanger for hot climate conditions. The effects of chilled water and ambient temperatures, water flow rates, humidity, and the operating cooling mode on the supply air temperature was investigated for three configurations. The system dry bulb and wet effectiveness was estimated for all conditions under consideration. It was found that the dry bulb effectiveness approached 17%, while it was in the range of 72-98% for the wet bulb effectiveness. In addition, the secondary air saturation efficiency was calculated with varying water flow rates. It was found that the increase of water quantity in the heat exchanger would increase the cooling capacity and lead to a higher secondary air temperature difference. This resulted in higher saturation efficiency for the system. These results were compared with available numerical data for calibration and validation purposes.
Keywords: Direct Cooling; Indirect Cooling; Cross flow; Wet Bulb Effectiveness; Dry Bulb Effectiveness; Saturation Efficiency.
ESTIMATION OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF CRYOGENIC LIQUEFACTION SYSTEM WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS METHOD IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF SUSTAINABILITY
by ELIF ALTINTAS, MERT TOLON, ARIF KARABUGA, ZAFER UTLU
Abstract: Today, researches of new energy technologies with the concept of energy efficiency in terms of sustainability are increasing and literature is developing. In addition, sustainable engineering approaches are used today to increase productivity in all engineering research areas, and this approach is also applied in thermal engineering. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which is used to estimate different energy efficiency problems in thermodynamic literature, was used for thermodynamic evaluation of nitrogen obtained by cryogenic liquefaction method in cooling systems. 441 Liquefied nitrogen data found by Engineering Equation Solver (EES) program and were examined with the help of thermodynamic mathematical formulations for exergy analysis. Also, a comparison is made between an artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on thermodynamic principles as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast exergy efficiency of cryogenic liquefaction system by applying different neural network architecture types and by presenting a new procedure for identifying structure and parameters of hidden layers with using temperature, pressure, enthalpy and entropy as inputs.
Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainable engineering approach; Thermodynamic analysis; Cryogenic liquefaction system; Artificial neural networks.
Statistically Downscaling Climate Change Projection of Precipitation and Temperature over the semi-arid Yarmouk Basin- Jordan
by Fayez Abdulla
Abstract: The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) skills have been addressed in downscaling the climate over the Yarmouk Basin, which is a semi-arid trans-boundary basin between Syria and Jordan. The scenarios used to drive SDSM are GHGs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using CanESM2 GCM. The study findings illustrate that there is a good statistical confidence in the downscaling based on the uncertainty analysis results that have been performed. SDSM showed a good ability to simulate the mean characteristics of precipitation and temperature but a poor capability for capturing the daily precipitation pattern and extreme precipitation events. In addition, SDSM was found to tend to underestimate the precipitation amounts and the number of wet days. During the 21st century, all scenarios have agreed that the mean annual rainfall will continue to decrease while the temperature will continue to increase. The projected time series can be adopted with satisfying confidence for any intended climate change impact studies within the Yarmouk Basin.
Keywords: Climate change; Downscaling; SDSM; Semi-arid basin; Yarmouk Basin and Uncertainty.
THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT PROJECTIONS ON SEASONAL RESIDENTIAL SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS AND ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING FOR TURKISH PROV?NCES
by Can Coskun
Abstract: Global climate change is one of the most significant problems that mankind has to front with respect to its results. Turkey was chosen for a case study because of the sensitive position due to global warming. The main aim of this study was to determine the Turkey global warming map based heating and cooling energy demand change. In this perspective, Turkey is studied in terms of daily, monthly and seasonal long term temperature trends. The temperature trends are analyzed by the use of linear regression techniques and the results indicate a significant rise in temperature trends. The average temperature increase for each province in Turkey is calculated to reach the maximum of 6.09
Keywords: Global warming; map; heating energy; cooling energy; CO2 emission; Turkey.
Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of NEE Change in an Alpine Meadow on the Tibetan Plateau
by MINGYUAN DU, Yingnian LI, Fawei Zhang, Liang Zhao, Hongqin LI, Song GU, Seiichiro Yonemura, Yanhong Tang
Abstract: Scenarios projection of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) for the warming future on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is extremely important due to the TP has been considered as one of the most sensitive regions to global warming. 14 years data of eddy covariance measurements at an alpine meadow on the TP were used to characterize the statistical features of NEE and its relationship with temperature variations. We fitted the MichaelisMenten equations of the lightresponse curve to the alpine meadow ecosystem and then get the relationship between the parameters of the light-response curve and air or soil temperature. Predictions of NEE for future climate warming in the alpine meadow on the TP are made. The results show that less than two degrees increasing of temperature would not have much influence on the CO2 absorption amount of the ecosystem (around 45gC/m2/year), while over 2.6 degrees increasing of temperature would change the CO2 absorption into CO2 release from the ecosystem and 4.8 degree increasing of temperature which is high level of RCP8.5 scenarios would induce a large amount of CO2 release (about 166.8 gC/m2/year ) from the alpine meadow ecosystem. This means that over a 2 degrees warming in future would jeopardizes future carbon sink capacity at the alpine meadow ecosystem on the TP.
Keywords: Alpine meadow ecosystem; eddy covariance measurement; Michaelis–Menten light–response curve; NEE (Net ecosystem CO2 exchange); Tibetan Plateau.
A Study on Determination of Component Sizing Capacity for Range Performance, Cost and CO2 Production of an Extended-Range Electric Vehicle
by Mustafa Umut Karaoglan, Nusret Sefa Kuralay, Can Ozgur Colpan
Abstract: Extended-range electric vehicles, which are equipped with a generator including a small gasoline engine as a range extender unit, have become attractive because of their high range and low battery cost potentials. In order to increase range and decrease total cost and CO2 emissions for these vehicles, powertrain components should be appropriately designed according to the operating conditions of the vehicle. In this study, firstly, the effects of the capacity of the generator module and the battery on the vehicle range, the battery weight, and the battery cost are calculated to determine the design alternatives of the powertrain taking into account the design constraints. Then, vehicle powertrain with each applicable design alternatives, which consist of feasible parameters as battery type, battery capacity, generator power output, and fuel tank capacity, is simulated for ECE 15 drive cycle requirements to determine the vehicle range, the total cost, and the CO2 production. After carrying out a single-objective optimization procedure, the results yielded the optimum design parameters as follows; 100 Ah 15.36 kWh battery and 2 kW generator power output for the maximum vehicle range, 100 Ah 15.36 kWh battery and 1.7 kW generator power output for the minimum cost, and 40 Ah 15.36 kWh battery and 1.7 kW generator power output for the minimum CO2 production.
Keywords: Extended range; electric vehicle; design optimization; powertrain simulation.
Evaluate the Effect the Land Surface Temperature in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands Using Potential Remote Sensing Data and GIS Techniques
by Majed Ibrahim, Barbara Koch, Pawan Datta
Abstract: Land Surface Temperature (LST) plays a significant role with respect to drought, vegetation covers and climate change. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of LST in some parameters and to carry out mapping using Remote Sensing Data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Remote sensing techniques were used to estimate LST variation using data obtained from satellite imagery in Landsat series 1990 and 2019. A Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) and a Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) were utilized to evaluate the LST and to create a vegetation and soil moisture indices map. Some indices were used to assess the effect of LST on the land in the study area. Meteorological data acquired through a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was utilized to evaluate the accuracy of the LST. GIS techniques and image processing were used to cal-culate the LST, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Moisture Index (SMI), Normalized Differ-ence Water Index (NDWI) and Dry Bare Soil Index (DBSI). The results show that the relation between the indices and the LST was statistically significant (R2 = 0.2 and 0.3 p < 0.05 respectively). Both maximum and minimum temperatures affect vegetation cover and lead to bareness, where high LST regions have a low amount of vegetation and a low level of soil moisture content, and low LST regions have a high amount of vegetation and a higher level of soil moisture content. It was found that the indices used were suitable for distinguishing between vegetation cover and bare soil in arid and semi-arid climates and for evaluating the relation between indices and LST. The final out-comes show that the remote sensing data proved to be a powerful tool for monitoring spatial and temporal changes in LST and thus it can be useful for environmental studies and the agriculture sector.
Keywords: Land Surface Temperature; NDVI; DBSI; NDWI; GIS; Remote Sensing; MODIS.
Experimental analysis of carbon monoxide to establish the origin of dissolved gasses in water, and their role in weather anomalies
by Paul Somerville
Abstract: This study investigates carbon monoxide (CO) gas, to identify the impact it has on atmospheric anomalies (ATMAs). A variety of experimental tests were carried out with the heat, and pressure. Data obtained was analysed with the purpose of establishing clues to verify the fundamental characteristics of CO, highlighting it as being the most environmentally unfriendly gas in the atmosphere (ATM). This paper explores weather cycles, to connect the influence of CO, to extreme ATMAs, such as hurricanes, excessive rainfall, and high volumes of humidity on hot cloudless days. Observations of thunderstorms were explored to determine the effect of the sound given off by thunder, and its influence on the water vapour it comes into contact with. Our comprehension of climate change, leaves us, concluding that the volume of carbon dioxide (CO2) is way above natures required amount in the ATM, resulting in the warming of our planet. The purpose of this study is to highlight the characteristics of CO, and discuss how we should be addressing these issues, establishing a plan of action for combating global warming.
Keywords: Atmospheric Gasses; Global Warming; Climate Change; Carbon Monoxide; Atmospheric Anomalies; Thunderstorms; Hurricanes; Dissolved gas in water.
Spatial Trends of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan by Exploiting Ground-based and Space-borne Observations
by Fasiha Safdar, Muhammad Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad Imad Ud Din, Waleed Khattak
Abstract: Temperature is one of the key indicators of a changing climate. A trivial change in temperature can result in significant changes in weather patterns with severe repercussions on ecology and socio-economic conditions of an area. This study aims to assess the changing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in five climatic zones of Pakistan, and to compare ground-based with satellite data obtained from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations over these climatic zones of Pakistan. Mann Kendall test has been used to signify the temperature trends in all zones and seasons while Sens slope value has been used to measure the magnitude of the trends for the time period 1978 to 2016. Ground observations have been compared with AIRS satellite observations for ascending and descending air temperatures by employing correlation and mean bias error (MBE). The results show that AIRS product (AIRSX3STM) underestimates Tmax and Tmin in all zones of Pakistan with the underestimation being most prominent in Zone A. The trend analysis for maximum and minimum temperatures show an increase in maximum temperatures for all seasons in all climate zones except a slight decrease is observed during pre-monsoon and winter seasons in the Zone D (relatively hot and dry region of Pakistan). Minimum temperatures have an increasing trend in all zones. Overall, Pakistans maximum temperature increased by 0.026 ?C/year with the maximum increase of 0.05 ?C/year during pre-monsoon, and the minimum temperature increased by 0.027 ?C/year with maximum increase of 0.039 ?C/year, also in pre-monsoon season, indicating an early onset of summers. Additionally, maximum and minimum temperatures from 2008-2016 have been compared with the 30 years average baseline values (1978-2007) and the results show that the increase in maximum temperatures has been less pronounced than the overall period of 1978-2016 whereas the increase in minimum temperatures is more pronounced during the period of 2008-2016.
Keywords: temperature trends;satellite data; validation; AIRS; mean bias error.
Real time vulnerability analysis of hydropower projects under changed climatic scenarios
by Priyanka Majumder, Samrat Kar, Mrinmoy Majumder
Abstract: Energy requirement is one of the most important factor to keep todays world a developing one. Thus the requirement of electricity has been intensified by the need of energy . At present, humans are very much dependent on fossil fuel in order to produce energy which creates a very big obstacle in the way of sustainable development. The conventional way of using the fossil fuel in order to produce energy is economically an un sustainable one. Thus the need of finding an alternative arises which have the potential to substitute the conventional fuel methods. Utilizing the kinetic energy of the flowing water and converting it to electrical energy can be a very useful method in the way of sustainable development as energy retrieved from the flowing water is comparatively inexpensive and a reliable renewable energy source which have the potential to substitute the conventional methods. But due to the increasing concentration of unwanted green house gases and global warming the environmental concentration are degrading day by day. The electricity production of hydropower plant will greatly be effected by climate change as the production is directly proportional to the rate of flowing water which directly depends on the climatic location of the power plant. Thus continuous climatic vulnerability monitoring becomes very important factor in order to predict the efficiency of a hydro power plant. In this study continuous climatic vulnerability monitoring is done by Decision Making Based Neuro-genetic Models.
Keywords: Hydro power plants (HPP); Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP); Arifitial Neural Network(ANN).
Impact of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon on the climate of Qatar
by Tareq Al-Ansari, Mohammed Al-Marzooqi, Rajesh Govindan, Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla
Abstract: The rapid urbanisation and expansion of built environments in large cities can potentially raise the local ambient air and surface temperatures as a result of the urban heat island (UHI) effect. In this study, the authors implement advanced statistical techniques to assess the UHI effect in Doha city and the extent of urban contributions to the observed local warming trends, using meteorological time series and satellite remote sensing data respectively. The main findings of the current study are: (a) UHI intensity trends between Doha and other rural locations are significantly positive for the minimum and maximum temperatures averaged at both the seasonal and annual time scales; (b) image processing results clearly indicate an expanding urban cover (built environment) in Doha over the past 30 years; and (c) combined analyses of both temporal and spatial datasets provide valuable evidence for positive correlation between the UHI effect and the urban expansion.
Keywords: Climate Change; Urban Heat Island; Remote Sensing.
Special Issue on: IEEES-12 Environmentally-Benign Solutions
Flowsheet development for the steam gasification of animal manure with subsequent CO2 capturing using CaO: An Aspen Plus
by Muhammad Shahbaz, Tareq Al-Ansari, Ahmed AlNouss, Gordon Mckay
Abstract: Animal manure is one of the important wastes present in the state of Qatar and worldwide. The aim of the current investigation is to develop a flowsheet model for the steam gasification of animal manure with CaO for CO2 capturing using Aspen Plus through the Gibbs-free energy minimization model. The effect of three key variables, namely, the temperature (600-800
Keywords: Animal manure; CO2 capturing; gasification; Aspen Pus; syngas. CaO; CO2 emissions; Cost; Techno economic analysis.
Effects and critical analysis for Emission Reduction Assessment in the Road Transportation Sector
by Ruba Al-Foraih, SREEKANTH K J
Abstract: Road transportation and the corresponding GHG emissions are one of the main reasons for environmental contamination in almost all countries, and Kuwait is not an exception. Emissions of CO2, NOx, CO, and CH4 due to the operation of vehicles lead to environmental pollution and serious health issues. This research focuses on the use of Effects and Criticality Analysis (ECA), which identifies how a product, facility, or practice can collapse for analyzing the effects and associated risk assessment due to these emissions. A structured approach is made in this study to estimate the risk allied with certain failure grounds and rank the proceedings to lessen the risk of failure. ECA requires identifying different possible failure modes of the present road transportation practice, their occurrence, and possible sources in conjunction with the emission sector. The standard ECA procedure assesses failure means for occurrence, severity, and detection. To narrow the gap between the research and actual maintenance practices while dealing with failures and its criticality for hot arid regions, this study will surely contribute and beneficial.
The focus of this study was mainly on automobiles' fuel consumption, energy consumption, and emissions produced by private vehicles. ECA was made to calculate these measures and predict them for the future. The exponentiation of the parameters directs to the Risk Priority Number (RPN). A rating is assigned for severity, occurrence, and detection to estimate RPN for every failure mode and to select the first five high priority failure modes to be used in the improvement stage, as they are approximately 70% of all RPN. The basis for 70% appears from the Pareto principle. Based on the obtained results, some important recommendations were made such as service intervals for the optimum time to change the filter, tyre pressure check at regular intervals, tyre inflation its effect, the effect of carrying excess weight, vehicle idling time and its effect on fuel consumption, and the harmful effect of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Keywords: Fuel consumption; energy consumption; emissions; exhaust gases; ECA; FMEA.
Mitigating Global Warming in Smart Energy Grids via Energy Supply Security for Critical Energy Infrastructures
by CEVAT ÖZARPA, Muhammed Ali Aydin, Isa Avci
Abstract: The use of renewable energy sources, energy management, and improvement of the operation of power systems have become important in terms of reducing global warming and environmental pollution. Energy is an indispensable building block for all countries and has a severe impact on the economy and the environment. Problems in energy supply security threaten smart grids and cities, critical infrastructures and industrial control systems, and directly affect the economy. As a result, energy supply security has become an important issue for energy infrastructures, renewable, and environmentally friendly energy networks. This study aims to review the increase in energy supply, energy supply security and risks, global warming, the importance of renewable energy sources, and environmental factors in energy infrastructure security. Also, a security framework is proposed for critical energy infrastructures such as electricity, water, natural gas, coal, petroleum, renewable energy, and nuclear energy resources, taking into account the key risk factors affecting the reliability, environmental impacts, and security of energy sources in energy supply security. This framework consists of seven main topics, with particular emphasis on cybersecurity and environmental security. 17 different risk types are identified in the proposed framework along with their reasons for natural gas, electricity, coal, oil, nuclear, and renewable energy sources. Risks determined in terms of energy supply security and environmental impacts are calculated according to energy sources and it is found that renewable energy sources have less risk (9%) than other energy forms, electricity (13%) and natural gas (15%).
Keywords: Energy Supply Security; Emissions; Smart Grid; Renewable Energy Grids.
Techno-economic and Environmental Aspects of Solar Driven Heating Assistance Options for Residential Buildings
by Ümit Deniz Akyavuz, Hasan Özcan
Abstract: In Turkey, every year 12-15 billion m3 of natural gas is used in residential heating. Energy from renewable energy systems can reduce both CO2 emissions and national energy imports. In this study, storage of sensible heat, hydrogen and electricity is compared in four different systems to be integrated to existing heating systems utilizing solar energy for heating assistance. Vacuum tube collector (VTC) system and parabolic thermal collector (PTC) system are selected for sensible heat storage, photovoltaic (PV) panel system is selected for hydrogen storage and electrical energy storage via batteries. According to calculations for an area where 300 kW of solar energy falling for 8 hours, the highest heating support is PTC with approximately 5800 MJ. Its natural gas equivalent is approximately 160 m3/day. Due to the highest natural gas gain, the highest blocked CO2 emission as 320 kg/day occurs in the PTC preheating system.
Keywords: Energy storage; sensible heat storage; renewable energy; solar energy; heating system;CFD.
Sustainable Development of Qatar Aquifers Under Global Warming Impact
by Salah Ajjur, Husam Baalousha
Abstract: In a warming world, effective management is important to the sustainability of water resources. This is especially true in arid countries where those resources are limited. Qatar is a hyper-arid country with minimal rainfall and extremely high temperatures. Its recent sharp increase in population and urbanization have affected Qatars per-capita water consumption, which in turn has exerted more pressure on its limited water resources. Many studies have recommended managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to improve groundwater quality and enhance water security. The literature has documented many different MAR implementation methods and strategies. However, their appropriateness and feasibility in Qatar remain unexplored. This study establishes key MAR development indicators in Qatar considering current technical and socio-economic factors. The study compares four MAR methods: (a) aquifer storage and recovery (ASR), (b) rainwater harvesting (RWH), (c) in-channel modification, and (d) spreading. Results show that coupling the RWH and ASR methods is the optimum scenario for aquifer management and sustainability. In addition to resources augmentation, RWH will contribute to flash flood prevention, which adversely affects the environment. In contrast, the in-channel modification and spreading methods can reduce up to 80% of the water available for recharge. Specific recommendations for the ASR method are embarking on field-scale tests and theoretical models to ensure the effectiveness of the recovery process in heterogeneous aquifers. A recovery rate of less than 25% might be recorded in ASR karstic sites. Further work includes considering climate change impacts and uncertainty in MAR design for Qatar.
Keywords: Qatar; water resources management; managed aquifer recharge; desalinated water; climate change.
Sustainable energy use and decarbonization potential in the Hungarian residential building sector
by Tamás Pálvölgyi, Attila Buzási
Abstract: The residential buildings form a crucial sector of climate change mitigation in Hungary. The primary objective of the paper is to identify the long-term tendencies and future perspectives of the decarbonization of household heating energy use in Hungary. Secondly, the paper focuses on the sustainability context of the energy sector by applying a complex impact assessment framework. Besides the quantitative analyses, driving factors in historical emission reductions were also identified, as well as future decarbonization potentials and options in household heating were estimated.
Keywords: residential buildings; decarbonization potential; sustainable energy use.
The Energetic Performance Effect on The Valuation of Bulk Carriers
by Murat Koray, M.Ziya Sogut
Abstract: Dry cargo vessels consume high energy depending on operational processes in economic life and many work processes related to energy consumption from port to voyage processes have been defined. As a result of the regulations imposed by regulatory authorities such as the International Maritime Organization, Flag and Port State, shipping companies are under severe conditions for developing environmentally sensitive behavior as well as coping with low freight rates. This study was examined based primarily on the energy analysis and environmental effects of the power transmission system used in a dry bulk carrier. Then, considering the real performance data, the effects on the ship valuation processes are also questioned. As a result of the analyses, the total amount of fuel has average energy performance of 31.54% when 30 voyages are considered. A one-degree savings rate in this load distribution has yielded a 5.27% savings, with 510.31 tons. These savings increase the ship' value up to 1.4 million USD at the end of the economic life. At the end of the study, taking into account the fuel cost, which is the biggest impact on the Operational Expenditures Costs, the relationship between the ship operation processes and valuation were presented.
Keywords: bulk carriers; energy; exergy; efficiency; ship valuation.
Prospects of Renewable Energy Penetration to Turkeys Electric Power Grid
by Mehmet BULUT, Izzet Alagoz
Abstract: Turkey has important growth for renewable energy and has been recorded in a short time, where electricity generation from solar power reached 9249 GWh and from wind power reached 21730 GWh by the end of 2019. This study examines the penetration of renewable energy sources to the grid by analyzing the current grid situation. In this study, we investigated how much can be met from renewable energy sources over the next decade in Turkey. For this, predictive values of renewable energy sources were found using linear and polynomial regression methods.
Keywords: Electrical energy; Renewable; Hydroelectric; Wind energy; Solar energy.