International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management (6 papers in press)
Job satisfaction determinants and assessment: the case of a Greek public agency under organisational change
by Efstratios Meimaridis, Christina Diakaki
Abstract: In 2017, the Single Agency for Social Insurance (EFKA) emerged in Greece via integrating the pre-existing independent insurance funds, with little, if any, involvement of the employees. As it is known that organisational changes may compromise job satisfaction and consequently organisational performance, it is beneficial for organisations to make efforts to ensure the satisfaction of employees, and the first step in this respect is understanding and assessing their job satisfaction. Within this context, it is the aim of the study presented herein to identify the satisfaction determinants of EFKA employees, assess their satisfaction levels and highlight job aspects calling for attention and/or improvement. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken and data were analysed with statistical techniques and action diagrams. The results of the analyses indicated several job dimensions with contributions in overall satisfaction with most important and at the same time critical, the 'work tasks and development' dimension.
Keywords: job satisfaction determinants; job satisfaction assessment; organisational change; public sector; statistical analysis; action diagrams.
Capital controls: a tool to protect an economy under pressure? The cases of Cyprus, a Eurozone member, and Iceland
by Georgios Gad, Emmanuel Petrakis
Abstract: This paper considers the effectiveness of capital controls as a protective action. We analyse the recent cases of Iceland and Cyprus, and examine the extent to which the controls on free capital movement delivered the outcome that motivated their imposition in each country. The methodology used examines the main macro-economic indicators and attempts to locate significant variations pre- and post-capital controls. The results indicate that controls were only partially successful. In the case of Iceland, they did not manage to control the pressure over foreign exchange rate. In the case of Cyprus, controls achieved only partially control of outflows. Belonging to Eurozone was not proven to be a negative factor for measures success, as indicated in the case of Cyprus.
Keywords: capital controls; capital controls effectiveness; capital flows; financial crisis; Eurozone; Cyprus; Iceland.
Risk management in construction projects: a study on the state-of-practice
by Georgia Fevranoglou, Christina Diakaki
Abstract: Construction, a key economic activity worldwide, is vulnerable to several risks, which compromise the successful completion of construction projects, and call for the implementation of risk management activities. Within this context, it is the aim of the study presented in this paper to investigate the current state of risk management practice in construction projects along with the factors that affect it, and the relationship of risk management to the success of projects. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken among professionals of medium and large construction companies active in the regions of Greece and Middle East, and data were analysed with statistical techniques. The analysis results indicate that construction companies, irrespective of size and region, get engaged in, but do not systematically implement, risk management activities during the whole lifecycle of their projects, a fact that influences the successful completion of projects in terms of compliance to budget, time schedule, and specifications and standards.
Keywords: construction projects; construction project success; risk management in construction projects; risk management implementation; barriers to risk management implementation; risk management state-of-practice; statistical analysis.
A new combined linear-artificial neural network based model for accurate inflation forecasting in Tunisia
by Asma Ouerghi, Marwa Hasni, Zied Jaidi, Safa Bhar Layeb
Abstract: Accurate forecasts of the inflation rate are essential for tracking the economic streaming. In the early inflation forecasting research, focus was directed toward developing regression-based methods. Despite their performance, several lines of evidence consider that using them is prohibitive owing to the variable nature of the inflation series. Henceforth, a number of empirical-data based tools have been put forward. Amongst these, ANN models have been shown to yield satisfactory results. This has motivated several researchers to question the best way for efficient inflation forecasting and, accordingly, to conduct several comparative studies on the relative performances between allied methods. In our sense, it is more judicious to make use of the advantages provided by each forecasting approach rather than exclusively choose between them. In this paper, we develop a combined forecasting model that integrates time-series and ANN and find evidence on its performance in forecasting inflation by means of an empirical comparative study.
Keywords: inflation; artificial neural network; forecasting models; time series; comparative study.
The weight of Islamic banks in economic growth: empirical analysis through panel data on MENA and Malaysia region
by Amine Nafla, Abdelkader Derbali
Abstract: To determine the relationship between Islamic finance, financial stability and economic growth, we will choose in this paper a sample that decomposes in 28 investment banks in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) and Malaysia, divided into two groups, Islamic and conventional, for 13 years from 2003 to 2015 and divided into three sub-periods before, during and after the subprime crisis. In order to determine the resistance of the two types of bank in the period of crisis, we use the parametric approach through the panel data. The results indicate that before the financial crisis, only Islamic investment banks have a financial system in good condition. The other group of banks, regardless of the country, have a situation that is neither good nor poor. Whereas, during the disaster, there is a significant change that affects the whole sample, but in a different way. Indeed, Islamic investment banks illustrate a stable financial system that has overcome the crisis and contributed effectively to economic growth. This paper encompasses a double merit. The first is the determination of the resistance of two groups of banks during the three periods and whether they were able to overcome the financial crisis. The second emerges in the use of the parametric approach to check the weights of each variable of financial stability on economic growth.
Keywords: economic growth; Islamic finance; financial stability: panel data.
Special Issue on: Performance Management
The financial crisis effects on asset allocation: Markowitz theory vs. behavioural portfolio theory
by Amen Aissi, Mouna Boujelbene
Abstract: This article focuses on two alternative theories of portfolio optimisation, namely the Mean Variance Theory (MVT) of Markowitz (1952) and the Behavioural Portfolio Theory (BPT) of Shefrin and Statman (2000). Using stock prices from the Canadian Stock Exchange database for the 20022017 period, we attempt to compare the asset allocations generated by MVT and BPT frameworks by investigating the effect of the financial crisis. Our results indicate the financial crisis caused large drops of the market values of efficient MVT portfolios covering risky securities and the absence of the BPT optimal portfolio. This finding is mainly attributed to the concepts of security and fear that characterise BPT and MVT investors. We also found out that the modification of the security parameter was consistent with the way BPT investors perceived risk. Thus, in the case of a higher degree of risk aversion induced by BPT investors, we show that the security set is located on the upper right of the Mean Variance (MV) efficient. However, even if the asset allocations of MVT and BPT coincide, MV investors displaying lower degrees of risk-aversion don't systematically select the BPT optimal portfolios.
Keywords: asset allocation; financial crisis; behavioural portfolio theory; mean variance theory; investment choices.