International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management (8 papers in press)
Job satisfaction determinants and assessment: the case of a Greek public agency under organisational change
by Efstratios Meimaridis, Christina Diakaki
Abstract: In 2017, the Single Agency for Social Insurance (EFKA) emerged in Greece via integrating the pre-existing independent insurance funds, with little, if any, involvement of the employees. As it is known that organisational changes may compromise job satisfaction and consequently organisational performance, it is beneficial for organisations to make efforts to ensure the satisfaction of employees, and the first step in this respect is understanding and assessing their job satisfaction. Within this context, it is the aim of the study presented herein to identify the satisfaction determinants of EFKA employees, assess their satisfaction levels and highlight job aspects calling for attention and/or improvement. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken and data were analysed with statistical techniques and action diagrams. The results of the analyses indicated several job dimensions with contributions in overall satisfaction with most important and at the same time critical, the 'work tasks and development' dimension.
Keywords: job satisfaction determinants; job satisfaction assessment; organisational change; public sector; statistical analysis; action diagrams.
Capital controls: a tool to protect an economy under pressure? The cases of Cyprus, a Eurozone member, and Iceland
by Georgios Gad, Emmanuel Petrakis
Abstract: This paper considers the effectiveness of capital controls as a protective action. We analyse the recent cases of Iceland and Cyprus, and examine the extent to which the controls on free capital movement delivered the outcome that motivated their imposition in each country. The methodology used examines the main macro-economic indicators and attempts to locate significant variations pre- and post-capital controls. The results indicate that controls were only partially successful. In the case of Iceland, they did not manage to control the pressure over foreign exchange rate. In the case of Cyprus, controls achieved only partially control of outflows. Belonging to Eurozone was not proven to be a negative factor for measures success, as indicated in the case of Cyprus.
Keywords: capital controls; capital controls effectiveness; capital flows; financial crisis; Eurozone; Cyprus; Iceland.
Risk management in construction projects: a study on the state-of-practice
by Georgia Fevranoglou, Christina Diakaki
Abstract: Construction, a key economic activity worldwide, is vulnerable to several risks, which compromise the successful completion of construction projects, and call for the implementation of risk management activities. Within this context, it is the aim of the study presented in this paper to investigate the current state of risk management practice in construction projects along with the factors that affect it, and the relationship of risk management to the success of projects. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken among professionals of medium and large construction companies active in the regions of Greece and Middle East, and data were analysed with statistical techniques. The analysis results indicate that construction companies, irrespective of size and region, get engaged in, but do not systematically implement, risk management activities during the whole lifecycle of their projects, a fact that influences the successful completion of projects in terms of compliance to budget, time schedule, and specifications and standards.
Keywords: construction projects; construction project success; risk management in construction projects; risk management implementation; barriers to risk management implementation; risk management state-of-practice; statistical analysis.
A new combined linear-artificial neural network based model for accurate inflation forecasting in Tunisia
by Asma Ouerghi, Marwa Hasni, Zied Jaidi, Safa Bhar Layeb
Abstract: Accurate forecasts of the inflation rate are essential for tracking the economic streaming. In the early inflation forecasting research, focus was directed toward developing regression-based methods. Despite their performance, several lines of evidence consider that using them is prohibitive owing to the variable nature of the inflation series. Henceforth, a number of empirical-data based tools have been put forward. Amongst these, ANN models have been shown to yield satisfactory results. This has motivated several researchers to question the best way for efficient inflation forecasting and, accordingly, to conduct several comparative studies on the relative performances between allied methods. In our sense, it is more judicious to make use of the advantages provided by each forecasting approach rather than exclusively choose between them. In this paper, we develop a combined forecasting model that integrates time-series and ANN and find evidence on its performance in forecasting inflation by means of an empirical comparative study.
Keywords: inflation; artificial neural network; forecasting models; time series; comparative study.
The weight of Islamic banks in economic growth: empirical analysis through panel data on MENA and Malaysia region
by Amine Nafla, Abdelkader Derbali
Abstract: To determine the relationship between Islamic finance, financial stability and economic growth, we will choose in this paper a sample that decomposes in 28 investment banks in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) and Malaysia, divided into two groups, Islamic and conventional, for 13 years from 2003 to 2015 and divided into three sub-periods before, during and after the subprime crisis. In order to determine the resistance of the two types of bank in the period of crisis, we use the parametric approach through the panel data. The results indicate that before the financial crisis, only Islamic investment banks have a financial system in good condition. The other group of banks, regardless of the country, have a situation that is neither good nor poor. Whereas, during the disaster, there is a significant change that affects the whole sample, but in a different way. Indeed, Islamic investment banks illustrate a stable financial system that has overcome the crisis and contributed effectively to economic growth. This paper encompasses a double merit. The first is the determination of the resistance of two groups of banks during the three periods and whether they were able to overcome the financial crisis. The second emerges in the use of the parametric approach to check the weights of each variable of financial stability on economic growth.
Keywords: economic growth; Islamic finance; financial stability: panel data.
Leadership in safety-oriented organisations: an empirical study
by Daniele Binci, Francesco Scafarto
Abstract: This article explores the relationship between different leadership approaches and safety cultures dimensions in the context of a high-reliability organisation (HRO). Particularly, our research aims to analyse the contribution of vertical versus shared decision-making styles and behaviours to the improvement of a safety culture under prevention and containment situations. Drawing on a survey sample of 68 managers from a large safety-oriented company, we develop a set of hypotheses to compare whether different leadership approaches can predict specific dimensions of the safety culture - namely preoccupation with failure, sensitivity to operations, reluctance to simplify, deference to expertise, and resilience. To test our hypotheses, we ran separate hierarchical regression analyses. Results suggest that both vertical and shared leadership can influence a safety culture, even if in a differential manner. Concerning a safety prevention situation, a vertical leadership approach is found to be more impactful than a shared one on preoccupation with failure, sensitivity to operations and reluctance to simplify. For the safety containment, we found some controversial results instead. Within this situation, although we expected a major contribution from shared leadership, our evidence reveals that both a vertical and a shared approach are required for resilience and deference to expertise. Surprisingly, the contribution of shared leadership to the safety containments dimensions is quite marginal. Insights on specific leadership behaviours related to vertical and shared styles complement these main findings. Generalizability, even though not our main goal owing to the exploratory nature of the study, is lacking. Moreover, the sample composition takes into account only specific organisational roles, such as top and middle management, whilst team members have not been included in the survey.
The different influences of decision-making processes on safety culture makes clear the need for leaders to pay attention to vertical and shared leadership styles and behaviours. Hence, both approaches should be considered by decision-makers to guide their decisions in order to manage different safety situations requiring either as ordinary (prevention) or extraordinary (containment) solutions inside their organisations. Our research makes a useful contribution to the ongoing research into the leadership/safety culture relationship by providing an original perspective about what leadership styles and behaviours could better predict the dimensions of a safety culture within HROs.
Keywords: vertical leadership; shared leadership; safety-oriented culture; empowerment; directive leader; transformational leader; transactional leader.
The essence of supply chain collaboration: a consideration of information sharing types and benefits
by Loukas Tsironis, Stavros Dimitriadis, Jason Papathanasiou
Abstract: The goal of this paper is to identify the types of information that are shared in a supply chain (SC) and the benefits created when sharing. Additionally, to explore and classify the associations between information types and benefits. This will reveal which type generates most benefits. Three multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods are applied to find the types of information that generate most benefits in a SC. MCDM methods can help to evaluate the information in a complex problem like this. The results of all three methodologies showed an agreement on what information is most useful and most profitable for the success of the SC, when shared. The findings will benefit businesses and SCs on the development of new information management practices. Furthermore, the current paper will create a stimulus for new research on the SC coordination issue. Finally, it discusses the future of SCs in the digital era. This paper fills the literature gap by classifying the information types that are shared in a SC by linking them to the benefits of sharing.
Keywords: supply chain collaboration; information sharing; multicriteria decision making; fuzzy TOPSIS; PROMETHEE.
Special Issue on: Performance Management
The financial crisis effects on asset allocation: Markowitz theory vs. behavioural portfolio theory
by Amen Aissi, Mouna Boujelbene
Abstract: This article focuses on two alternative theories of portfolio optimisation, namely the Mean Variance Theory (MVT) of Markowitz (1952) and the Behavioural Portfolio Theory (BPT) of Shefrin and Statman (2000). Using stock prices from the Canadian Stock Exchange database for the 20022017 period, we attempt to compare the asset allocations generated by MVT and BPT frameworks by investigating the effect of the financial crisis. Our results indicate the financial crisis caused large drops of the market values of efficient MVT portfolios covering risky securities and the absence of the BPT optimal portfolio. This finding is mainly attributed to the concepts of security and fear that characterise BPT and MVT investors. We also found out that the modification of the security parameter was consistent with the way BPT investors perceived risk. Thus, in the case of a higher degree of risk aversion induced by BPT investors, we show that the security set is located on the upper right of the Mean Variance (MV) efficient. However, even if the asset allocations of MVT and BPT coincide, MV investors displaying lower degrees of risk-aversion don't systematically select the BPT optimal portfolios.
Keywords: asset allocation; financial crisis; behavioural portfolio theory; mean variance theory; investment choices.