International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management
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International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management (4 papers in press)
Financial analysis of selected fresh milk companies in Greece: the case of the cooperative company THESS GALA PIES by Sophia Nema, Katerina Lyroudi Abstract: This paper examines the application of the Altman Z-score (1983) model revised for nonpublicly traded firms and the Altman Z-score (2000) model for firms operating in emerging markets, in order to rate the performance of a cooperative dairy firm called THESS GALA PIES, in comparison to the fresh milk market leader, DELTA, another local dairy firm of similar size sales, TRIKKI and the Greek dairy industry. The comparative analysis of the aforementioned entities using the Altman (1983) non- public firms Z-score model, showed that THESS GALA PIES performed better than all the rest. DELTA presented the lowest performance whilst the dairy industry unified data led to Z-scores that were averaging the rest. The comparison of the emerging markets model Z-scores showed that TRIKKI was performing better, with DELTA presenting again the lowest scores and the unified dairy industry data averaging the rest. Keywords: solvency prediction models; Z-score; Greek dairy industry.
Information and ill-structured decisions: the Effects of web use and feedback by David McLain, Jinpei Wu Abstract: Most problems have information deficits, motivating decision makers to seek additional information beyond personal experience. The web and performance feedback are especially accessible resources. This paper tests the impact of ill-structured decisions, especially the use of the world wide web and feedback, on performance. The results of the experiment revealed that mere belief in the Webs usefulness did not predict better decisions. The web provided inconsistent benefits, but expectations-clarifying feedback consistently drove significant improvements in decisions. Simple knowledge-of-results feedback, however, was of no benefit. Relevant experience, the information foundation, also improved decisions. Theory should consider the influence of multiple information sources on decisions, specifically ill-structured decisions. Practitioners should encourage more feedback-seeking and experience expansion while understanding the limitations of the web. Keywords: ill-structured decision; web; feedback.
Integration of STPA and TOPSIS fuzzy methods for risk analysis in aerospace projects by Sarah Borges, Mischel Belderrain, Moacyr Cardoso Junior, Diogo Castilho Abstract: There are several types of risk in organisations and projects, including technological, financial, environmental, legal, and operational. This article focuses on a risk analysis framework for complex aerospace research projects, some of which are innovations in the area and do not have a history of data from previous activities. The objective of this study is to analyse the feasibility of integrating the STPA (Systems Theoretic Process Analysis) method for systemic assessment of safety and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) for prioritising Unsafe Control Actions (UCAs). The proposed integration method was applied to the Laboratory of Injection Systems for Liquid Propellants at the Aeronautics Institute of Technology (ITA). The results obtained were the need for an emergency response plan, signalling, access control, and safety training for laboratory technicians. Therefore, risk analysis is essential to support the decision-making process, to identify and reduce hazards and losses. Keywords: aerospace engineering; decision analysis; risk analysis; safety; project management; STPA; topsis fuzzy.
Supply chain risk management for a sustainable strategy: a study in the furniture industry by Fabrizio Baldassarre, Raffaele Silvestri, Francesca Ricciardi, Savino Santovito Abstract: Risk prevention and mitigation strategies, deriving from total-quality-oriented internalisation choices, cannot be observed regardless of the strategic orientation adopted by a business in managing its supply chain. The aim of the paper is to investigate how a business can manage the risk of social sustainability deriving from total-quality-oriented internalisation strategies. A case study is conducted in the furniture industry: data are collected through interviews with the managers and analysed following Eisenhardt (1989) and Yin (2014). The data analysis shows that the suppliers involvement in implementing buyers marketing strategy can support the latter in mitigating the social sustainability risk. The sharing of strategic marketing objectives can support buyers in mitigating the reputational risk within the business network and the local community and the risk of social sustainability created by vertical integration choices. In the academic debate, limited attention is paid to the relationship between supply chain risk management and sustainability. Keywords: supply chain risk management; sustainability; total quality; internalization; vertical integration.