A contribution to the debate over the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic growth
by Juan J. DelaCruz
International Journal of Behavioural and Healthcare Research (IJBHR), Vol. 1, No. 3, 2009

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to obtain estimates of the effect of HIV prevalence on the growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1990 and 2004, without the presence of reverse causality. Achieving this goal requires a set of instrumental variables that are correlated with changes in the prevalence of HIV but are otherwise unrelated to the error term of the growth equation. An instrument is a variable that does not itself belong in the regression, that is correlated with the suspect explanatory variable and that is uncorrelated with the error term. The instrumental variables employed in this paper are a set of social and epidemiological determinants of HIV infection, and indexes of macroeconomic performance.

Online publication date: Thu, 17-Sep-2009

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