Title: A contribution to the debate over the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic growth

Authors: Juan J. DelaCruz

Addresses: Department of Economics & Business Administration, Lehman College, The City University of New York, 250 Bedford Park Blvd. West, Carman Hall 379, Bronx, NY 10468, USA

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to obtain estimates of the effect of HIV prevalence on the growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1990 and 2004, without the presence of reverse causality. Achieving this goal requires a set of instrumental variables that are correlated with changes in the prevalence of HIV but are otherwise unrelated to the error term of the growth equation. An instrument is a variable that does not itself belong in the regression, that is correlated with the suspect explanatory variable and that is uncorrelated with the error term. The instrumental variables employed in this paper are a set of social and epidemiological determinants of HIV infection, and indexes of macroeconomic performance.

Keywords: HIV AIDS; economic growth; human capital; instrumental variables; HIV prevalence; GDP per capita; social determinants; epidemiological determinants; HIV infection; macroeconomic performance.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBHR.2009.028462

International Journal of Behavioural and Healthcare Research, 2009 Vol.1 No.3, pp.293 - 317

Published online: 17 Sep 2009 *

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