International Journal of Sustainable Economy (5 papers in press)
Revisiting Current Account Sustainability in Turkey: Analysis via Fourier Techniques
by Onder Ozgur, Muhammed Sehid Gorus, Erdal Tanas Karagol
Abstract: The primary purpose of this study is to examine the current account sustainability in Turkey using quarterly data covering the period between 1992:1 and 2017:1. To this end, the study applies two recently developed stationarity and cointegration tests based on intertemporal budget constraint. Both avenues analyse the mean-reverting behaviour of the current account balance using Fourier unit root and cointegration analysis which can scrutinize an unknown number of structural breaks, capture sharp breaks, and approximates them as smooth gradual processes. Empirical findings show that Fourier KPSS unit root test rejects the nonstationarity of current account balance to GDP ratio implying that shocks to current account balance are not persistent. Besides, empirical findings also exhibit weak form sustainability in the short-run whereas its form is strong in the long-run.
Keywords: Cointegration analysis; current account sustainability; Fourier techniques; Turkey; unit root analysis.
Pension funds and stock market development: Evidence from OECD countries
by YILMAZ BAYAR, Metin Kilic
Abstract: Pension funds have experienced considerable expansions in the value of their asset holdings after gradual transition from single tier pension system to multi-tiered pension systems in the world, because public pensions became financially unsustainable. Increases in the value of financial asset holdings of the pension funds enhanced their efficiency in capital markets. This paper investigates the effect of pension funds as an institutional investor on stock market development in 18 OECD member states for the period 2001-2015 with panel data analysis. The findings suggested that pension funds affected stock market development positively in the long run.
Keywords: pension funds; stock markets; panel data analysis.
NATURAL CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PANEL STUDY APPROACH
by Sa-ad Iddrisu
Abstract: This paper employs panel data study of 63 developing countries to examine the relationship between natural capital and economic growth. Natural capital per capita and GDP per worker are used as proxies for natural capital and economic growth respectively. Using three regression models, the results suggest there is a statistically significant positive relationship between natural capital and economic growth, and a long-run relationship (co-integration) between the variables. Therefore treating natural capital as a substitute rather than as a complement in the production process, undermines the important role natural capital plays for economic growth and development. Hence national level governments should pay important attention to their natural capital.
Keywords: Developing countries; Economic growth; GDP; Natural capital; Sustainability.
Empirical Verification of Causality between CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, and Openness of the Economy: Evidence from India
by Sushil Kumar Rai, Abhay Mohan Bembey, Devshree Sarfare
Abstract: The present paper addresses the issue of causal relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, and openness of the economy in India by employing time-series data for thirty-seven years from 1978 to 2014. The result indicates the existence of the long - run relationship between the considered variables. Further, a strong joint unidirectional causality is running from energy consumption, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, and openness of the economy to CO2 emissions. The finding supports the thesis of the causal cyclical relationship between the above-mentioned variables; therefore, the policy of efficient energy use along with the adaptation of new technology in production activity will address the issue of reduction in CO2 emissions without compromising the objectives of high growth rate through foreign direct investment and openness of the economy.
Keywords: Causality; CO2 Emissions; Energy Consumption; Foreign Direct Investment;
Gross Domestic Product; Openness of the Economy; Cointegration; VECM; Sustainability.
The Effects of Temporary Income Shocks on Household Expenditure: The case of Ecuador
by Milenko Fadic
Abstract: I study how household expenditures on non-durable consumption and human capital change in response to a positive and temporary income shock. I examine a sample of one income earning Ecuadorian households where the income earner participated in a procurement process that uses a random lottery to select winning bidders for public tenders. I use a unique dataset that combines the results from the lottery with confidential tax-level data. I find that income shocks cause households to increase spending in education and health by 8%, and in food and clothing by 11% during the year of the shock. I also find that households that received shocks of higher magnitudes smooth their expenditures over time.
In addition to providing a measure of the propensity to consume for households in Ecuador, this study contributes to the literature by focusing on an unexpected, positive and temporary income shock. Additionally, this study estimates the joint effects on non-durable consumption and human capital, areas which have traditionally been studied separately.
Keywords: Human capital; income shocks; non-durable consumption.