International Journal of Global Warming (37 papers in press)
Heavy metal removal with pure and biochar rice husks: modeling and optimization using Box-Behnken design
by Fulya AYDIN TEMEL, Nurdan Gamze Turan, Okan Ozgonenel, Yüksel Ardalı
Abstract: In this work, the most common heavy metals such as Cu(II), Zn(II), and Pb(II) removal from aqueous leachate of industrial waste were investigated using pure and biochar rice husks. The influence of such parameters as pH, adsorbent dose (g L-1), and contact time (min) on the biosorption of rice and biochar rice was examined by using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on Box-Behnken surface statistical design at a leaching solution, Ci = 32.69 g L-1 as a fixed input parameter. The results show that both linear and squared terms of process variables are found significant on the response variable. The optimum conditions depending on both combinations and individual of all responses for the removal of Zn (II), Cu (II), and Pb (II) ions were determined using the optimizing algorithm. To sum up, the use of biochar rice husk is found better than the use of pure rice husk according to statistical analysis. This study strongly indicated that pure and biochar rice husks are an influential alternative adsorbent for the removal of heavy metal ions by sorption.
Keywords: heavy metal removal; response surface modeling (RSM); Box-Behnken design (BBD); rice husk; biochar rice husk; optimization.
ASSESMENT OF CO2 REDUCTION TECHNIQUES OF CEMENT PRODUCTION IN TURKEY
by Kumru Rende, Özgen Ercan, Pinar Ergenekon, Hasan SADIKOĞLU
Abstract: The reduction of CO2 emissions in cement industry especially for the countries with growing demand for cement, is crucial. The objective of this study is to reveal the importance of CO2 emission reduction in cement industry for the countries with strong demand. As a case study we worked on the opportunities of reducing CO2 emissions in cement industry in Turkey. There are only dry process kilns in 2017 in Turkey. Improving the technology, the average specific energy consumption in 2012 decreased to 3416 MJ/ton clinker as it was 3541 MJ/ton clinker in 2005. Moreover, in 2012, the average specific electric consumption was 100.1 kWh/ton cement compared to 104.9 kWh/ton in 2007. These consumption levels are in the range of the best available consumption levels that are referred in Best Available Techniques (BAT) Reference Document. Process based CO2 emissions followed a slight decrease due to changes in the utilized fuel and raw material blend from 0.50 ton CO2/ton cement in 2001 to 0.45 ton CO2/ton cement in 2015. Reducing of CO2 can be achieved mainly by effective waste heat recovery (WHR) systems and the increasing use of alternative fuel. It is estimated that, 0.5 1.5 million tons of CO2eq reduction would be achieved theoretically for 72.8 million tons of cement production for the year 2015 in Turkey. Besides, alternative fuel utilization in Turkey has been increasing in recent years. If the percentage of alternative fuel usage reaches to 30.5%, approximately 1.4 million tonnes of CO2eq reduction will be achieved.
Keywords: Climate change; CO2 emissions; reduction techniques; cement industry; Turkey.
Standard aerosol optical depth index (SAODI) and application in the Middle East countries
by Zekâi Şen
Abstract: Middle East is one of the most aerosol subjected region of the world. The records of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from 2003 to 2016 inclusive are investigated through some innovative methodologies and also suggestion of standard AOD index (SAODI) procedure that provides visual, verbal and numerical interpretations about the AOD records at different locations, which include Syria-Iraq northern, west Iraq, Iraq marshes, Iran Ahwaz and Ilam regions in addition to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. It is shown that AOD records at different countries have different probability distribution functions (PDF), and therefore, the criteria of the average AOD plus 1, 2, 3 and 4 times the standard deviation of AOD record methodology as available in the literature does not provide a common footing for AOD assessment. Hence, a standard methodology is suggested as SAODI, which depends on the standard normal (Gaussian) PDF universally. The application of innovative trend analysis of the aerosol records indicated that although trends have rather small slopes, but in the Marshes, Ahwaz and Ilam locations there are decreasing trends, whereas in other locations the trends have increasing tendency. It is recommended that the unauthorized groundwater abstractions must be systematized with a systematic management program, reforestation and mulching.
Keywords: Aerosol; classification; index; innovative; Middle East; optical depth; probability; SAODI.
EFFECT OF RICE STRAW INCORPORATION ON METHANE EMISSION AND RICE YIELDS FROM RICE CROPPING SYSTEM BY DNDC-RICE MODEL
by Kruamas Smakgahn, Tamon Fumoto, Kazuyuki Yagi
Abstract: This study applied the DNDC-Rice model and simulated against field observation in Thailand. Simulated CH4 emission data shown acceptable results compared to field observation recorded. Rice straw incorporation into field play important role on CH4 emission by continuous increase soil organic carbon as well as soil iron contents, consequently to low soil Eh which is suitable for CH4 production. Higher amount of rice straw applied induces higher CH4 emission vice versa. Therefore, reduction of rice straw amount incorporation into soil, is possible practical mitigation options for CH4 production.
Keywords: DNDC-Rice model; global warming; methane emission; mitigation option; rice cropping system.
Risk analysis of the European Union 2030 greenhouse gas emission target compliance
by Marko Ćirović
Abstract: As the central objective of the Europe 2030 strategy, member countries of the European Union (EU) are striving to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40% compared to 1990 levels. This paper examines the ability of EU countries to reach this goal in the mentioned timeframe. Although the EU 2020 target of 20% reduction has already been achieved by EU28 in total (GHG emissions are 19.8% lower than 1990 level, they have not been achieved by all the member states individually, but rather by the higher achievements than targeted by the leading countries in this field. The paper examines each of the member states capabilities of reaching EU2030 targets individually. Risk analysis has been done in order to evaluate and rank countries by their current and projected progress towards targeted outcomes. The approach that was used is integrated Fuzzy AHP and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FAHP FMEA). FAHP FMEA method is used in risk evaluation and it is an inductive modelling approach used to evaluate potential failure modes and their causes. Each countrys potential inability to fulfil marked greenhouse gas emissions was considered as a FMEA failure effect. The main goal was to prioritize and rank specific countries and the risk they pose to unfulfillment of the marked EU 2030 targets. As a result, the countries have been ranked by risk priority numbers.
Keywords: environmental risk assessment; EU 2030; risk analysis; Fuzzy; FAHP; FMEA.
Vulnerability to climate change and residents adaptations in coastal areas of Soc Trang Province, Vietnam
by Makoto Tamura, Kazuya Yasuhara, Kiyotake Ajima, Van Trinh, Pham Song
Abstract: Many climate-sensitive areas and communities are insufficiently prepared for climate change induced natural disasters due to a mismatch of perceptions and the risks and economic limitations associated with these disasters. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam, which is home to a growing population that currently stands at 17.2 million people, has been experiencing more frequent and severe flooding, especially in Soc Trang Province. Historical and present-day images obtained using an uncrewed aerial vehicle and satellites showed rapid erosion of coastal areas and damage to infrastructure for flood control. A perception survey on more than a thousand residents conducted in 2014 showed that the adaptations pursued at the community level were limited by economic factors and education level. Finally, multiple strategies harmonized with local ecosystems and livelihoods were proposed to protect the area against climate change induced events.
Keywords: adaptations; climate induced events; erosion; Mekong Delta; natural disasters;perceptions; Soc Trang Province; vulnerability; Vietnam.
Techno-Economics of Off-grid Hybrid Wind-Diesel Power Systems for Electrification of Residential Buildings of Yanbu - A Potential Industrial Location of Saudi Arabia
by S.M. Shaahid
Abstract: The study analyses wind-speed data of Yanbu (West-Coast, Kingdom of Saudia, K.S.A.) to assess the feasibility of hybrid wind-diesel power systems to meet the electrical load of hundred typical residential buildings (with annual demand of 3512 MWh). The wind speeds range from 3.9-4.8 m/s. The systems simulated consist of 600 kW wind machines supplemented with diesel generators. NREL's HOMER software is employed for techno-economic analysis. The results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising of 600 kW wind capacity with 1.0 MW diesel system (two 500 kW units), the wind penetration (at 50 m hub-height, with 0% annual capacity shortage) is 27%. The cost of generating energy (COE, $/kWh) from this system is 0.070 $/kWh (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/liter) and the reduction in carbon emissions is 147 tons/year. The study exhibits that the operational hours of diesel gensets decrease with increase in wind farm capacity.
Keywords: Hybrid wind-diesel systems; Residential loads; Diesel generators; Carbon emissions.
Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the Carpathian Basin comparing different definitions
by Júlia Göndöcs, Hajnalka Breuer, Rita Pongrácz, Judit Bartholy
Abstract: Heat waves (HWs) associated with climate change and increased near-surface air temperature can be considered as a climatic hazard for people and the environment. This study evaluates six HW detecting methods and the estimated HW characteristics (duration, frequency and intensity) from observational (CarpatClim database) and modelled (RegCM simulations with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) datasets. The RegCM model results show a considerable future increase (by 20162045; 20612090) in HW days compared to the reference period (19712000). In case of RCP4.5, HW days become 3-6 times more frequent, while the increase is 5-9 fold for RCP8.5 by the end of the century (2061-2090). As a consequence of climate change, HW durations are also projected to become 12 (34) days longer on average for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the Carpathian Basin.
Keywords: Heat wave definition; climate change; regional climate model; temperature; cloudiness; bias correction.
Climate change modeling for nuclear industry in the aspect of energy consumption using system dynamics method
by T.A.E. H.O. WOO
Abstract: The climate change is investigated in the aspect of the priority of nuclear energy consumptions due to the environmentally defects of conventional energies. Some causes of the climate changes are discussed. Regarding of the carbon productions, nuclear energy is compared with other energy sources. The causes of climate change are studied as quantities using relevant mathematical formulas. The simulation modeling is performed using system dynamics (SD) where the simple and easy calculations are done. The designed value for nuclear priority by climate change factor increases by 3.5 % as with human factor comparing to without human factor in 2050. The graph for annual anomaly weighted by nuclear priority with climate change factor from 2011 to 2050 is shown in which the values increase in the minus values. So, the nuclear energy increasing rate with the climate change factor affects to the temperature change which can show the environmental protection as well as energy supply.
Keywords: Climate change; Carbon; Global warming; System dynamics (SD); Nuclear power plants (NPPs).
Coupled nutrient removal from the wastewater and CO2 biofixation from the flue gas of iron and steel manufacturing
by Direnis Cayli, Sibel ULUDAG-DEMIRER, Goksel N. Demirer
Abstract: CO2 mitigation through photosynthesis has attracted attention as an alternative strategy over chemical methods because it is less costly and energy-consuming. When the microalgae are fed with wastewaters containing high nitrogen and phosphorus, they remove nitrogen and phosphorus from the wastewater. Moreover, the harvested biomass from microalgal reactors constitutes a raw material for the production of different high-value chemicals and biofuels.
This study investigated the coupled removal of CO2 from the flue gas and nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in the wastewater originating from the coking unit of an iron-steel industry by using microalgal photobioreactors. The results indicated that the flue gas from coking unit of a typical Iron and Steel Factory and the wastewater from the same process supported the microalgal growth. Photobioreactors achieved CO2 fixation rates of 11.45-13.52 mg/L.day. Notable nutrient (up to 77% Total Ammonia Nitrogen (TAN) and 61 % PO4) and heavy metal (72% Cr, 63% Fe, 22% Cu and over 90% Cd) removals were observed in the coking process wastewater which was used to grow microalgal cultures.
Keywords: Microalge; CO2 biofixation; flue gas; coking unit; wastewater; iron-steel industry.
Carbon emissions, energy consumption, trade openness, and economic growth in 12 Asia-Pacific economies: Evidence from panel cointegration results
by Wen-Cheng Lu
Abstract: This article analyses the relationships among carbon emissions, energy consumption, trade, and economic growth in 12 Asia-Pacific economies. The results indicate the existence of four long-run equilibrium relationships among carbon emissions, energy consumption, trade, and economic growth. These four variables are causally related to each other. The inverted-U environment Kuznets hypothesis is supported. The long-run elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to trade and energy consumption were 0.21 and 1.13, respectively. Furthermore, the empirical evidence from a dynamic panel error-correction model revealed two short-run unidirectional causalities: from trade to energy consumption and from energy consumption to GDP growth. The short-run results also showed two bidirectional causal relationships between energy consumption and carbon emissions and between economic growth and carbon emissions. These results suggest that Asia-Pacific economies undertake energy policy to reduce carbon emissions by increasing the energy efficiency and substantially increasing the share of renewable energy in the overall energy usage.
Keywords: Carbon emissions; Trade; Environmental Kuznets curve; Economic growth; Energy efficiency.
An assessment to evaluate potential passive cooling patterns for climate change adaptation in a residential neighborhood of a Mediterranean coastal city (Athens, Greece)
by Ioannis Tsiros, Milo Hoffman, Areti Tseliou, Vasiliki Christopoulou, Spyridon Lykoudis
Abstract: This study investigates the potential for passive cooling patterns inside the urban fabric in the Mediterranean climate city of Athens (Greece), especially with regard to quantify air temperature reduction and thermal comfort amelioration at the neighborhood scale. Using both field measurements and an urban microclimate simulation model, we assessed cooling and warming patterns in various sites of an Athens residential neighborhood. Results show that, under Mediterranean climate conditions, urban design elements such as wooded courtyards and appropriately oriented urban design elements such as galleries have a considerable cooling effect and can be used as cool places inside the neighborhood for occupants comfort amelioration and also as passive cooling tools for buildings to reduce summer energy consumption. They may then function as passive design strategies to adapt the urban site form to different climate change scenarios.
Keywords: urban microclimate; urban heat island; heat mitigation; vegetation; trees and shade; shading strategies; passive design strategies; sustainable urban design; courtyard; outdoor thermal environment.
Multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis of atmospheric CO2 concentration and land-surface temperature anomalies
by SUCHARITA CHATTERJEE, DIPAK GHOSH, SRIMONTI DUTTA
Abstract: This paper studies the cross correlation between the time series of atmospheric CO2 concentration and the temperature anomalies data using Multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis (MF-DXA) methodology. The data sets for both the series are obtained over a period from 1994 to 2009. In our previous paper we have studied the multifractal nature of the time series of atmospheric CO2 concentration using Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). In this paper we attempted to explore the correlation between the increasing CO2 concentration and increasing values of temperature anomalies. The present study reveals the fact that the individual series are autocorrelated and there exists cross correlation between the two mentioned time series.
Keywords: Non-stationary time series; multifractals; degree of multifractality; cross correlation; long-range correlation.
Decomposition of Regional and Sectoral Economic Impacts of Climate Change under New Scenarios
by Shin Sakaue, Koichi Yamaura, Toyoaki Washida
Abstract: This study decomposes the heterogeneous regional and sectoral impacts of climate change using Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We separate value-added under the various scenario combinations into direct climate change damage costs, mitigation costs and other (indirect) value-added using a dynamic version of the Evaluation Model for Environmental Damage and Adaption (EMEDA). In the decomposed EMEDA results, we find that 1) each region has different rates of change in its direct climate change costs and mitigation costs. For example, Asia, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East and Africa incur greater costs than the OECD and Latin America; 2) other value-added is largest in primary and tertiary industries, while mitigation costs are largest in the secondary sector; and 3) the highest decomposed costs among the scenario combinations occur under the SSPs-RCP2.6 scenario. It is extremely important that each country know which a SSP-RCP scenario applies when it is setting policy to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Keywords: EMEDA; integrated assessment model; IAMs; CGE models; Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSPs; Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs; global warming; climate change; regional impacts; sectoral impacts; Paris Agreement.
Economic Implications for Australia and other Major Emitters of Trading Greenhouse Gas Emissions Internationally
by Mahinda Siriwardana, Duy Ngoc Nong
Abstract: We employ the GTAP-E model to analyse the short run effects of two emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios under the cap-and-trade system at global level, building on pledges for abatement made by governments after the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. These pledges are used to allocate emissions targets for all the countries in 2020. In the first scenario, an ETS is formulated among Annex 1 countries only. In the second scenario, the ETS is expanded by adding three leading non-Annex 1 emitters China, India and South Korea. The study shows that the cost of meeting emissions reduction commitments of Australia and other countries can be reduced by engaging in block-level emissions trading. According to the results, a permit price (US$ per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions) of US$10.56 emerges with the ETS among Annex 1 countries. This price is reduced to US$6.32 when China, India and South Korea also joined the global ETS. Australias real GDP declines by 1.03 and 0.59 per cent respectively in two ETS scenarios. Contrary to the widely held view, projections from the GTAP-E model suggest that the ETS has a modest overall economic impact on the Australian economy and globally. Our results confirm that selling permits to the world is not welfare enhancing; rather countries who buy permits improve their welfare.
Keywords: Emissions trading; GTAP-E model; Australia; Carbon price; Permits.
Nonlinear modeling for greenhouse effect related global warming incorporated with the nuclear industry using neural networking theory
by T.A.E. H.O. WOO, Hyo Sung Cho
Abstract: The greenhouse effect related global warming is studied by the artificial intelligence (AI) based neural networking modeling. The stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model is applied to the carbon dioxide gas based greenhouse effect. It is shown of the Energy factor where four sources as Oil, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewable are connected in which the values are cumulative for comparisons with nuclear energy. The values are higher in the case of Without Nuclear. The highest values are 1,808.78 and 6,609.68 respectively which are dimensionless and means for the global warming effectiveness. It is also described as the Global Warming factor for comparisons with nuclear power in which the values show higher in the later time. The study shows the dynamical transients of the negative effects in the case of the nuclear energy portion missing. Therefore, the effect of the nuclear part should be considered as one of major energy sources of a nation.
Keywords: Greenhouse; Global warming; Nuclear; Power; Neural networking.
The Role of Personal Experience and Media Exposure on Personal and Impersonal Risk Perceptions and Policy Support: The Case of Global Warming
by Xiao Wang
Abstract: The impersonal impact hypothesis states that media exposure and personal experience influence the publics impersonal and personal risk perceptions, respectively. Our investigation examined the relationships among U.S. participants (N = 572) media exposure, personal experience, risk perceptions, and policy support in the context of global warming. This investigation provided mixed support for the impersonal impact hypothesis such that news and climate/science media exposure did not predict impersonal impact. Personal experience predicted both impersonal and personal risk perceptions. We further examined how knowledge and trust in scientists mediated the relationships between media exposure, personal experience, and risk perceptions. It revealed that impersonal impact, but not personal impact, supported policy to alleviate global warming. Both theoretical and practical implications were discussed.
Keywords: climate change; personal experience; media exposure; risk perceptions; policy.
Full factorial experimental design of Ni(II) removal from industrial wastewater by adsorption
by Fulya AYDIN TEMEL, Esin Avcı, Nurdan Gamze Turan
Abstract: The removal of Ni(II) from industrial wastewater was investigated using adsorption process by gyttja. Full factorial experimental design containing two levels and four factors (24) was performed to improve Ni(II) removal by reducing the number of experiments and to optimize the experimental conditions for Ni(II) adsorption process. Ni(II) adsorption performance of gyttja was examined as a function of pH, contact time, temperature, and adsorbent concentration. The maximum Ni(II) removal was found as 36% at pH 3, with 25 g L-1adsorbent concentration, for 60 min contact time at 50
Keywords: Adsorption; gyttja; optimization; factorial design; Ni(II); industrial wastewater.
Inclusive Reporting of Feedstock Energy and Stored Carbon: Asphalt Case Study
by Liv Haselbach, Sila Temizel-Sekeryan
Abstract: Environmental product declarations (EPDs) are reports of resource use and potential environmental impacts based on environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) methods. They tend to be related to a specific gate such as prior to use or construction. Asphalt paving and some other industries have some features that might not readily be captured in EPDs if the impacts are only included to the gate. These include stored energy (feedstock energy), stored carbon, recycled content and its high recyclability. The feedstock energy and stored carbon might be valuable assets for future considerations. This research proposes the use of optional reporting modules in EPDs based on international standards to capture the stored energy and carbon, and recyclability aspects. These proposed schemes for expanding EPDs with these benefits and loads beyond the system boundary information modules, should allow decision makers and life cycle analysts to have more comprehensive information for future decisions, research and analyses.
Keywords: Carbon accounting; asphalt; concrete; wood; Environmental Product Declarations; EPDs; recyclability; Life Cycle Assessment; LCA.
Noah and Joseph effects: Floods and droughts under global warming
by Zekai Sen
Abstract: Nature knows no deterministic laws and occasionally breaks records. Recently, there are many extreme weather events that end up with human effective harmful consequences with the increasing global warming, climate change and variability effects. This brings into the mind whether the nature replays from time to time Noah flood and Joseph seven-year drought effects in different manner in different regions. Although science provides objective solutions to reduce the extreme event dangers, but initial and boundary conditions can also be supported human ethical behaviors and friendly environmental treatments on culture and belief. Due to anthropogenic impacts on the environment, there is an increasing trend in the global warming leading to present day climate change, and consequently, unprecedented changes in the extreme events frequency, intensity, magnitude and areal extension. For the quantitative explanation of Noah and Joseph effects probability distribution function and innovative trend analysis methods are used in this paper. The objective trend towards the increase of extreme event dangers are exemplified through more than 100 years (1895-2010) data from New Jersey, USA. It is shown that at this location recently there is about 7.4% increase in the flood (Noah) event, but no significant drought (Joseph) effect. It is suggested that extravagant human ambitions trigger undesirable initial and boundary conditions for extreme events such as floods and droughts. The basic question is whether the scientific researches are sufficient and effective in the reduction of extreme hydrological events or should the humans also abide by the ethical, cultural and religious commends so as to minimize water related dangers for the benefit of living creatures?
Keywords: Climate; drought; effect; flood; Joseph; Noah; probability; trend.
Characterizing households vulnerability to climate change in Pyapon district in the delta region of Myanmar
by Tun Oo Aung, Guido Van Huylenbroeck, Stijn Speelman
Abstract: In the delta areas of Myanmar, the rising sea level causes saltwater intrusion and flooding. The resulting reduction in cultivated area and reduced crop productivity threatens livelihoods that are dependent on agriculture. A households vulnerability to these phenomena is determined by demographic factors and the social and economic characteristics of farm households. In order to understand vulnerability, it is relevant to study the effects of these factors. This paper has two main objectives: firstly to evaluate the factors determining farm households vulnerability to climate change-induced natural hazards and saltwater intrusion and, secondly, to study the correlation statistics between these factors. A total of 178 respondents from 20 villages in Pyapon district in Myanmar were interviewed. The study found that smallholder households (owning less than 2.428 ha) were most vulnerable to natural hazards, with an average household vulnerability score of 0.608, compared to households with larger landholdings which have a score of 0.589. Moreover, the Spearman correlation test explains that 14 out of the 23 selected variables were significantly correlated with the household vulnerability index. It was found that adequate provision of seeds, accessible markets, private and public extension services, enhancement of climate change adaptation measurements by farm households, and other infrastructure are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of farm households in the Pyapon district of Myanmar.
Keywords: Saltwater intrusion; Climate Change Adaptation; Principal Component Analysis (PCA); Vulnerability Index.
Assessment of CMIP5 climate models over South Asia and climate change projections over Pakistan under representative concentration pathways
by Nadia Rehman, Muhammad Adnan, Shaukat Ali
Abstract: Future climate change projections from global climate models (GCMs) are the primary drivers of regional downscaling and impacts research. Climate projections are also in increased demand from disaster management agencies, policymakers, and other stakeholders. A set of 36 global climate models from the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) is assessed for their performance over South Asia region for making future climate projection with a focus on Pakistan and its sub-regions. A suite of statistics was calculated to assess the credibility of GCMs with the observed statistics. The results show that GCMs have the ability to approximately capture the spatial patterns of temperature; however, the accuracy of precipitation simulation is relatively low. The future projection generated by the GCMs shows that temperature in Pakistan will increase in the 21st century by around 6.7°C under the RCP 8.5 scenarios and with increasing latitude, this warming is getting accelerated.
Keywords: CMIP5; global climate models; GCMs; representative concentration pathways; RCPs; temperature; precipitation; climate change projections; Pakistan; global warming.
Predicting the Different Engine Parameters of a Rubber Seed Oil-Ethanol Dual Fuel engine using Artificial Neural Networks
by Femilda Josephin, V. Edwin Geo, Ankit Sonthalia, BHARATIRAJA CHOKALINGHAM, Fethi ALOUI
Abstract: The present study investigates the potential of artificial neural network for predicting the performance and emission characteristics of a compression ignition engine. A number of experiments are performed using diesel, rubber seed oil (RSO) and rubber seed oil methyl ester (RSOME) as the primary fuel, injected into the cylinder, and ethanol as the secondary fuel injected into the intake port in a compression ignition dual fuel engine. The experimental data obtained is used for training and testing the neural network. From the total data, 70% of the data is randomly selected for training the network, 15% data for cross-validation and the remaining 15% data for testing the networks performance. The predictions are performed using feed forward back propagation training algorithm. Engine load and ethanol energy share data is used as input to the network, and it predicts brake thermal efficiency (BTE), brake specific energy consumption (BSEC), NOx, HC, CO, and smoke. The prediction performance of the network is measured by comparing it with experimental data. The coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used for measuring the performance of the network. After training and testing R2values are in the range of 0.99309 0.99996 and MAPE values are in the range of 0.00364.3227 for both training and testing data along with small mean square errors. The measurement of statistical error shows that ANN can predict BTE, BSEC, NOx, HC, CO and smoke for a dual fuel engine with high accuracy.
Keywords: Artificial neural network; Ethanol; Dual fuel engine; Rubber seed oil; Rubber seed oil methyl ester.
Statistically Downscaled Projections of CORDEX South Asia using Quantile Mapping approach over Pakistan Region
by Burhan Ahmad, Ghulam Rasul
Abstract: Apprehending regional scale climate information from global scale climate models brings uncertainties primarily due to insufficient incorporation of climate information at local scale. We implemented the Quantile Mapping (QM) approach based on in‒situ data that removed the systematic biases in the regional scale simulations of the CORDEX South Asia data for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation that covers the Pakistani domain. Post processed results were modelled into Probability Density Functions (PDFs) to identify climate change shifts in various statistical moments. The PDF based analysis for temperature reported negatively skewed patterns in distributions for projections as compared to baseline which forced shifting of percentiles and means towards extreme magnitude regimes. The PDF based analysis for precipitation displayed lower kurtotic values with fatter and lengthier tails in the projections as compared to baseline which suggested higher frequencies of precipitation extremes to occur in the times to come.
Keywords: Statistical Downscaling; Quantile Mapping; CORDEX South Asia; Climate Projections; Probability Density Functions; Pakistan Region.
Local government climate change mitigation and adaptation ranking assessment
by Anton Kole, Joanna Ellison
Abstract: Climate change awareness in local areas is critical, and this study assessed levels of mitigation and adaptation of local government areas (LGAs), across the rural/ urban State of Tasmania. Fourteen indicators were developed in energy, transport, awareness, and physical carbon sink sectors, and allocated quantitative parameters for ranking. Results were mapped using geographical information systems software. Higher energy results occurred on the two large northern islands both with solar and wind generation facilities, and around some cities with energy efficient street lighting systems. Highest transport scores occurred in the remoter west, and around most cities, but mostly not in agricultural areas. Higher awareness levels and overall scores were found around city areas. Higher physical scores resulted from community tree plantings and carbon sequestering vegetation. This study shows how geographic trend mapping can improve understanding of spatial differences in climate change mitigation and adaptation, to improve prioritised allocation of assistance policy.
Keywords: Mitigation; climate change; local government area; Tasmania; Australia; Ranking.
Methodology for a Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electricity Production and GHG Emissions Estimation in Landfill Sites
by Murat Gokcek
Abstract: Landfills are active digester fields that contain all types of classified waste that decomposes under anaerobic conditions and produces greenhouses gases causing global warming such as methane. In the present study, it was aimed to assess the potential of electricity generation and GHG emissions for a municipal solid waste landfill that is situated in Sivas, Turkey. The USEPA-LandGEM model was employed to determine the landfill gas generation capacity. The internal combustion engines with the rated power sizes in the range of 330 - 1946 kW were selected in order to generate electric energy by using the biogas formed in the landfill. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) method was employed for the purpose of calculating the generation cost of unit electricity. According to the results of the model, the maximum total gas production rate was estimated to be 14.395
Keywords: Landfill gas to energy; Levelized cost of electricity; Municipal solid waste; Electricity generation potential.
Enhancement of Landfill Gas Production and Waste Stabilization by Using Geotextile Filter in a Bioreactor Landfill
by Cevat YAMAN, Yusuf Küçükağa, Burcu Pala, Gülşah Delice, Nafiz Eyüp Korkut, Abdurrahman Akyol, Serdar Kara
Abstract: Optimizing the methane production period is potentially a better way to manage and control the greenhouse gas impact of landfill gas (LFG). The aim of this study is to enhance biodegradation and methane production of municipal solid waste (MSW). In this study, two laboratory scale anaerobic bioreactors are used to evaluate the potential to increase the rate of LFG production and waste stabilization by using a polymeric geotextile filter in the bioreactor. The simulated bioreactor is equipped with a geotextile filter (LBR-GT) and showed a greater performance than the control reactor (LBR-C) in terms of the LFG production rate and the waste stabilization period. Although a negligible amount of LFG is still being produced, a total of 1194 L and 1128 L of LFG were produced from the LBR-GT and the LBR-C respectively. This study showed that the rate of LFG production is enhanced by the geotextile since the LBR-GT produced 85% of its total LFG in only 1 month whereas the LBR-C produced 85% of its total LFG in more than 3 months. To monitor the waste stabilization performance, the total settlements (waste reduction) in the reactors are also determined. The results of this study suggest there is a benefit of using geotextiles to enhance the operation of a landfill as a bioreactor and to control the greenhouse gas impact of LFG.
Keywords: Solid waste; landfill gas; geotextile; landfill bioreactor; greenhouse gas.
How to model a complex national energy system? Developing an integrated energy systems framework for long-term energy and emissions analysis
by Matthew Davis, Mohammad Ahiduzzaman, Amit Kumar
Abstract: In order to manage an energy system responsibly and maintain its benefits indefinitely, science-based decision-making should be valued during energy policy making and energy management. This research presents a framework for developing a scientific tool with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system for evaluating energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation pathways for a national energy system. The framework developed is applied to create a bottom-up (technology-explicit), data-intensive (over 2 million data points), multi-regional (13 integrated regions) energy model of Canada, one of the worlds most energy and emission intensive nations. Model accuracy was validated with historical data showing emissions varied 0-1.2% proving the framework can provide accurate assessments. The model was used to generate baseline Canadian energy-emissions outlooks to 2050 that do not currently exist in literature. The developed framework provides robust capabilities that are helpful for energy efficiency analysis, energy planning, and GHG mitigation assessment.
Keywords: energy model; GHG emissions; Canada; energy outlook; emission outlook; energy system; bottom-up; integrated; accounting-based; energy analysis; emission analysis; energy policy; energy management; LEAP.
Future realities of climate change impacts: An integrated assessment study of Canada
by Mohammad Khaled Akhtar, Slobodan P. Simonovic, Jacob Wibe, Jim MacGee
Abstract: This paper presents an integrated assessment model for use with climate policy decision making in Canada. The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_CDN represents Canada within the global society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system. The model uses a system dynamics simulation approach to investigate the impacts of climate change in Canada and policy options for adapting to changing global conditions. The disaggregation techniques allow ANEMI_CDN to show results with various temporal resolutions. Two Canadian policy scenarios are presented as illustrative examples to map policy impacts on key model variables, including population, water-stress, food production, energy consumption, and emissions under changing climate over this century. The main finding is a significant impact of a carbon tax on energy consumption. Two policy scenario simulations provide additional insights to policy makers regarding the choice of adaptation/mitigation options along with their implementation time.
Keywords: system dynamics simulation; climate change; integrated assessment modeling; society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system; water resources management; disaggregation.
Patterns and Influencing Factors of Spatio-Temporal Variability of Soil Organic Carbon in Karst Catchment
by Zhenming Zhang, Yunchao Zhou, Shijie Wang, Xianfei Huang
Abstract: The patterns of spatio-temporal variability of the soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in karst catchment were investigated, to provide a scientific basis for estimating SOC storage in karst regions and selecting technical measures for soil carbon sequestration. In this paper, field sampling, laboratory measurement, geostatistics, and geographic information system (GIS) were combined, to investigate the patterns and influencing factors of SOC's spatio-temporal variability in Houzhai catchment from 1980 to 2015. The results showed that according to the soil samples of the entire catchment, the SOC content averaged 21.98 g/kg in 1980 and 25.07 g/kg in 2015, with an increase of 3.09 g.kg-1 (14.58%). Over the three and a half decades, SOC in this region showed weakened spatial structure, reduced correlation, and broken spatial distribution. Moreover, SOC in both periods presented a pattern of high values in the east and low values in the west, high in the periphery and low in the center, and high in the south and low in the north. However, some local values were highly variable in embedded or block distribution. The key factors that could affect spatio-temporal variability of SOC in Houzhai catchment included the soil types, land utilization, and major environmental factors.
Keywords: Soil organic carbon; temporal and spatial distribution; influencing factors; small watershed; Karst;.
Determining the effect of deforestation on sustainable water supply in a semi-arid mountainous watershed by using Storm Water Management Model
by Mahmut Reis, Hurem Dutal
Abstract: Forest ecosystems provide a major part of ecosystem services for a human being. Especially in arid or semi-arid mountainous region, forest contributes groundwater recharge and consequently low flow by reducing runoff and increasing infiltration due to its soil and structural characteristics. In this study, the effect of deforestation on sustainable water supply in a semi-arid mountainous watershed was determined by using runoff as an indicator of groundwater recharge. SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) was used to simulate deforestation scenarios and effect of rainfall intensity. Total 60 soil samples, 30 disturbed and 30 undisturbed, were also taken from surface soil of forest, rangeland and agricultural areas. According to result, runoff amount increases from 1.505 cm3/sec to 2.509 cm3/sec with increase ratio of 66.71%, 1.881 cm3/sec with increase ratio of 24.98% and 1.658 cm3/sec with increase ratio of 10.17% during 10 mm/day rainfall event in conversion of forest to urban, agriculture and rangeland scenarios, respectively. It was also determined that rainfall intensity had more effect on runoff than deforestation in the study area. Structural properties of forest areas was dominant factor affecting runoff, because there is no statistically significant difference between hydrological soil properties of forest, agriculture and rangeland areas in the study area. The study clearly shows that deforestation can lead to decrease groundwater recharge, and consequently decrease in low flow which is important for ecosystem sustainability in especially drought periods are characteristic of Mediterranean region in the watershed.
Keywords: deforestation;runoff amount; SWMM; forest ecosystem services.
The role of macroeconomic development on carbon emissions for 15 Asian countries: Panel ARDL Approach
by Wen-Cheng Lu
Abstract: This article utilized the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to examine the link between macroeconomic developments and carbon emissions for 15 Asian countries from 1990 to 2013. The results of the panel ARDL model showed that there existed long-run equilibrium relationships between principal macroeconomic variables and carbon emissions in the sample. The long-run elasticity of renewable energy and fossil fuels energy consumption with respect to CO_2 emissions was calculated as -0.299 and 0.967, respectively. The long-run elasticity of GDP, financial development, urban population density, and industry value added share with respect to CO_2 emissions was calculated as 0.473, 0.079, -0.633, and -0.10, respectively. FDI was significantly negatively related to CO_2 emissions which was calculated as -0.06 in the short-run. These results suggested that FDI inflow was not yet an environmental threat for Asian economies. Renewable energy and upgrades to industry value added share will help various governments mitigate carbon emissions.
Keywords: Carbon emissions; industry value added; foreign direct investment; energy consumption; macroeconomic development;; renewable energy.
Current trends in scientific research on global warming: A bibliometric analysis.
by Jose Luis Aleixandre-Tudo, Maxima Bolanos-Pizarro, Jose Luis Aleixandre, Rafael Aleixandre-Benavent
Abstract: The objective of this paper was to contribute to a better understanding of the scientific knowledge in global warming, as well as to investigate the evolution of the research knowledge on the topic through the published papers included in Web of Science database.
A bibliometric and social network analyses was performed to obtain indicators of scientific productivity, impact and collaboration between researchers, institutions and countries. A subject analysis was also carried out taking into account the keywords assigned to papers and subject areas of journals.
A number of 1,672 articles from 2005 to 2014 were analysed. The results showed Journal of Climate (n=95) and Geophysical Research Letters (n=78) as the most productive journals and Climate Change (n=722), Model (n=216) and Temperature (n=196) as the most frequent keyword.
A steadily increased in the research conducted on global warming was clearly identified during the last decade. A vast amount of journals publishing papers on the topic including several subject areas, such as Meteorology, Atmospheric sciences, Environmental sciences, Geosciences, Ecology, Energy and Fuels, Economics and Oceanography, among others, including high impact factor journals of general purpose, was also observed. The network of collaboration between countries showed the central position of United States, Germany, United Kingdom and France.
Keywords: Global warming; research trends; scientific collaboration; bibliometric analysis; social network analysis.
Long term analysis of the subtropical jet over the Arabian Peninsula
by Falah Al Dalabeeh, Emad Imreizeeq, Hajar Alnaqi
Abstract: In this study, the long term change of the Arabian Peninsula subtropical jet stream (APJS) is investigated for winter time of the period 1980-2014, using data retrieved from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis of the geopotential heights 300 hPa, 200 hPa and 150 hPa. The value and position of the monthly mean of the maximum zonal wind in the jet core are determined for the mentioned period and analyzed. Also 200 hPa wind speed data of three selected points with different latitudes and longitudes are analyzed. We found that the APJS has experienced a pronounced change. It is shifting poleward and eastward for about 1.5o in January and 2.5o in February also its speed has a slight increase during autumn and more pronounced in winter. However, it is decreasing during spring and the beginning of summer. Furthermore, while the jet is steady at 300 hPa, it is intensified with increasing height, except in March where it is weakening in general. The analysis of points of different positions shows that the wind speed is broadly decreasing in the tropics, whereas the wind speed increases in the subtropics. The time series analysis of the u-component of the jet maximum series, in general, indicated non-randomness, implying 3-4 years for December and 2-3 years and 8 years for January and February of periodicity.
Keywords: long term changes; trends; spectral analysis; Arabian Peninsula; Subtropical jet stream.
Global warming analysis for greenhouse gases impacts comparable to carbon-free nuclear energy using neuro-fuzzy algorithm
by T.A.E. H.O. WOO
Abstract: As one of energy characteristics, the importance of climate effects has been increasing due to the side-effect such as the draught, flood, heavy snow and so on. The nonlinear artificial intelligence can be reasonably applied in the analysis of the simulations, because the human-brain mimicking algorithm can show the practicable results. Basically, the quantifications in the study results are based on the randomly generated numbers where the Monte Carlo methods are applied. The Boolean numbers are generated in the variable constructions. Furthermore, there are multiplications in Population which are decided by the expert judgments. The causes loops for CO2 and Temperature are obtained. In addition, there is the result of variable Albedo vs. normalized Temperature with dimensionless values. Global collaboration can prepare and control the global warming as the geological scale aspect as well as the collaborated idea utilization that can develop the carbon minimizing technology and green energy development.
Keywords: Global warming; Neuro-fuzzy; Nuclear energy; Artificial intelligence.
Mitigating climate change through diet choice: Costs and greenhouse gas emissions of different cookery book-based dietary options and their implication for cost-effective greenhouse gas reduction in Germany
by Karin Kolbe
Abstract: Diet choices can help to mitigate climate change. 315 meat-containing, ovo-lacto vegetarian and vegan recipes were analysed regarding the costs of the recipes as well as the greenhouse gas emissions. The recipes were chosen from similar cookery book series. Prices for the ingredients were gathered in spring 2017 from one of the largest supermarket-chains in Germany. The costs that are associated with the different dishes if cooked according to the books recipes as well as the quantity of CO2 equivalents per serving and per 100 calories were calculated. It was shown that if a diet rich in meat is followed, it is impossible to achieve the postponed greenhouse gas reduction targets for Germany. Vegan dishes led to a 10% reduction of greenhouse gases compared to the ovo-lacto vegetarian dishes while the cost of the vegan recipes was 45% higher than for the ovo-lacto vegetarian options.
Keywords: nutrition; greenhouse gas emissions; meat; vegetarian; vegan; costs; carbon dioxide; methane; climate change; different diets.
Thermodynamic assessment of the impact of the climate change on the honeybees
by Mustafa Özilgen, Cennet Yıldız
Abstract: Honeybees are among the most sensitive biological species to the changes in environmental conditions. Since pollination is necessary for the cultivation of more than 75% of the crops used directly by the people worldwide, any injury to the honeybee population due to the climate change may jeopardize the food security. Thermodynamic parameters which may affect the honeybees in the case of an anticipated temperature change, including the total of the average global warming temperature increase, plus the usual seasonal temperature changes, plus the large temperature fluctuations caused by the climate change, are assessed. Work performance and entropy generation by the honeybees while resting, foraging for nutrients outside the hive and fanning the hive are assessed based on sucrose metabolism. The minimum entropy generation accounted was 1.2 x10-7 W/g honeybee K while the 1-7 h old young honeybees were resting under atmospheric pressure with 0.5 M of sucrose supply at 15 μl/min flow rate in the hive. The maximum entropy generation, 7.2 x10-5 W/g honeybee K, was accounted during foraging at 35oC at shade with 0.5 M of unlimited sucrose supply. With 3,000 honeybees, work performance was 3.17 kJ/kg dry air, heat generation was 4.44 kJ/kg dry air and the entropy generation is 161.6 W/g honeybee K while raising the temperature of the hive by 1oC. On the other hand, they have to perform 4.5 kJ/kg dry air of work, generate 7.27 kJ/kg dry air of heat and 308.9 W/g honeybee K of entropy to reduce the temperature of the hive by 1oC. The results show that during cooling by 1oC the honey bees performed 1.4 folds of work and generated 1.9 folds of entropy when compared to that of heating by 1oC, implying that global warming may create 90% more entropy stress on the honeybees, when compared to that of a potential global cooling.
Keywords: Thermodynamic modeling; honeybee; climate change.