International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy (42 papers in press)
Special Issue on: ICESES 2014 Sustainable Energy Technology
by Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Sabuhi Yusifov
Abstract: We studied impacts of population groups of 15-64 and 65-above on residential electricity use in Kazakhstan in the STIRPAT framework. Unlike earlier studies for Kazakhstan in the STIRPAT framework, we applied time series cointegration and error correction methods. Results from the autoregressive distributed lags bounds testing approach indicate a significant impact of the age group of 15-64 on the residential electricity use in long-run, however, the age group of 65-above has only short-run effects and affluence has no effect. Another finding is that, 21% of short-run disequilibrium can be corrected towards long-run equilibrium during a year. Policymakers should consider the trend of the population group of 15-64 in their decision about the long-run stance of the residential electricity consumption. The trend suggests an implementation of energy conservative policy and increasing efficiency of its usage. Another policy implication is that household's electricity consumption is not income dependent maybe due to cheap electricity prices subsidised by the government. In the short-run, policy makers should consider the age group of 65-above among other factors in their implementations. Moreover, they should be careful in making any policy shock to the residential electricity consumption system, because convergence towards long-run equilibrium path takes about six years.
Keywords: age groups; residential electricity consumption; STIRPAT; Kazakhstan; cointegration; error correction modelling; income; Commonwealth of Independent States; CIS.
Production, performance and emission analysis of Tamanu oil - diesel blends along with biogas in a diesel engine in dual cycle mode
by Tamilvanan Ayyasamy, Kulendran Balamurugan, Saravanan Duraisamy
Abstract: Bio-fuels are proved to be very good substitutes for the existing petroleum fuels. Blends of biodiesel extracted from Tamanu oil (B100, B80, B60, B40, and B20) along with induction of biogas with constant mass flow of 2.313 * 10−5 kg/s are used for conducting performance and emission analysis. The tests are carried out at 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% load conditions. Among the blends B20, B40 and B100 have shown a better performance with respect to brake thermal efficiency, mechanical efficiency and specific fuel consumption. All blends show reduction in HC when compared to diesel. But NOx emission increases with increase in load. But, CO has slightly increased for the induction of biogas compared to the diesel at all load conditions. Experimental investigations show that blending of Tamanu oil methyl esters along with biogas can be used in diesel engine without any modification and also it reduces the harmful emissions.
Keywords: biodiesel; biogas; calophyllum inophyllum; Tamanu oil; dual fuel; performance and emission.
Conversion of cotton residues to bio-oil and chemicals through flash pyrolysis in a fluidised bed reactor
by P. Madhu, H. Kanagasabapathy, I. Neethi Manickam
Abstract: Pyrolysis process offers solution to utilise huge quantity of biomass to produce fuel for energy needs. This paper describes the development of a new model for waste cotton shell pyrolysis. This model calculates the minimum fluidisation velocity for various sand particles for better fluidisation. Cotton shell wastes were subjected to pyrolysis at atmospheric pressure under inert gas atmosphere in a fluidised bed setup to determine the effect of operation parameters. The sand particle size 0.71 mm offered better fluidisation and is more economical as it utilises low hydrogen flow rate. The maximum yield of bio-oil 51 wt% can be obtained under the operation parameters of 450°C pyrolysis temperature, 1 mm particle size at sweep gas flow rate of 1.75 m3/h. In addition, the characterisation study of the bio-oil has been done for its physical and chemical analysis with gas chromatography mass spectroscopy. The elements and its derivatives found in the GC-MS analysis are used as a feed stock for chemical industries.
Keywords: biomass; cotton shell; fluidised bed; flash pyrolysis; chemical compounds.
Experimental study on triple pass solar air heater with thermal energy storage for drying mint leaves
by S. Kesavan, T.V. Arjunan
Abstract: Solar dryer is used to preserve agricultural products, save energy consumption and reducing environmental impact. A new type of solar collector has been designed and tested. This study deals with the design of a modular drying system consisting of two functional units, namely a triple pass flat plate air collector with thermal storage and a drying chamber. The flat plate collector is 2 m long, 1 m wide and 0.1 m deep, and incorporates absorber and thermal energy storage unit. Air flows between two glazing during first pass then in the opposite direction through the absorber during second pass and finally through the spaces between units of thermal energy storage and bottom plate into drying chamber. The experiments are conducted for drying mint leaves and the results show that considerable improvement in drying time and moisture removal. It is concluded that the design is compact, sufficiently simple and gives a high thermal performance.
Keywords: solar dryer; triple pass; absorber; thermal energy storage; mint leaves; useful collector gain; thermal efficiency.
Experimental studies on the performance of dehumidifier using calcium chloride as a liquid desiccant
by D. Seenivasan, V. Selladurai, T.V. Arjunan
Abstract: The performance of liquid desiccant air conditioning system (LDAS) mainly depends on dehumidifier of the system. In this study, the effects of inlet parameters on the performance of liquid desiccant dehumidifiers were studied with and without indirect evaporative cooler or intercooler (IDEC) between the dehumidifier for single stage and double stage. The results show that: i) the dehumidification effectiveness decreases by 8.6% for the all types considered here, with increase in air flow rate from 0.05 kg/s to 0.11 kg/s; ii) the dehumidifier effectiveness decreases due to decrease of moisture removal rate with increasing desiccant temperature in all stages; iii) the moisture condensation rate and dehumidifier effectiveness increases by 30% and 22.67% respectively with increase in desiccant flow rate; iv) the moisture condensation rate is increased by 13% in increasing desiccant concentration. It is concluded that double stage desiccant dehumidifier with indirect evaporative cooler performs better.
Keywords: liquid desiccant; dehumidifier; moisture condensation rate; MCR; dehumidifier effectiveness; indirect evaporative cooler; IEDC.
Comparative analysis of sustainable electric energy generation technologies using a multi-criteria decision methodology
by Mauricio Dester, Alberto Luiz Francato
Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to determine the technological options for electricity production based on available electric energy sources in Brazil. The results from this study can be used as a reference for the elaboration of guidelines and public policies that are needed to support plans for electric energy supply expansion. Furthermore, these results can provide input on the construction of energy mix that can meet Brazilian demands and help achieve sustainability in the generation expansion process. The study is based on a multi-criteria analysis methodology that ranks the best alternatives for electric energy production based on criteria linked to sustainability and environmental, technical and economic dimensions.
Keywords: energy mix; electric energy sources; EES; generation expansion planning; sustainability; multi-criteria analysis.
Intra-regional accessibility and take-up of grid extended electricity among rural households: case of Meru-South Sub-County in Kenya
by Charity Kageni Mbaka, Philomena Muiruri, Kennedy Obiero, Masika Oscar Kisaka
Abstract: Electricity services are crucial for human well-being and to a country's socio-economic development. Lagging development has been attributed among others factors to lack of modern energy sources among rural households. At present, the Kenyan Government is committed to extending the grid to the rural areas. This article reviews emerging trends of grid-based rural electrification and empirically examines the short-term effects of electricity at household level. The result revealed minimal electricity take up by the rural households. Conversely, it is established that electricity coverage improved over years. There is a distinctive disparity in spatial distribution in adoption, non-adoption and access. Electricity take up has substantial benefits to households especially in improving the quality of life. However, electricity is minimally used for income generating services. The government should be committed to periodically and exclusively review the progress of rural electrification in each region to identify the setbacks which assist in policy review and reformulation.
Keywords: adoption; electricity; grid; benefits; rural households; rural electrification; non-adoption; accessibility; transformers; spatial; disparity.
Scheduling and optimisation of refinery operations under fluctuating bitumen demand
by Mahesh S Kumar, Anbuudayasankar S.P, Sreeniketh Variyer
Abstract: This study presents a new planning algorithm for petroleum products with fluctuating demand. The proposed algorithm is tested with analysing and forecasting bitumen sales of a refinery. The algorithm presented in this study utilises decomposition forecasting with scenario analysis and optimisation. We introduced a risk measure factor in the objective function that would help to forecast the sales with more accuracy. Scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the bitumen sales and production at different conditions. The proposed algorithm would generate an optimal refinery operation schedule that would enable the production and sales with more refinery margin. The planning algorithm is validated with a case study.
Keywords: Petroleum supply chain; Forecast; Scheduling; Decomposition model.
Multi-method approach for the comparative analysis of solar and wind energy industry structures in Germany and Iran
by Maryam Ebrahimi
Abstract: The objective of this paper is comparing solar and wind energy industry structures in Germany and Iran through applying four industry analysis techniques known as strategy tools in technological issues including five forces model, diamond model, triple helix model, and sectoral innovation system in a comprehensive model. Regarding the purpose of the study, four research questions are specified which emphasis on understanding and analyzing the current competition conditions, competitive advantage in the global market, main institutional players, and conditions of functions of innovation system. In order to answer the questions, a field interview using a questionnaire was conducted which includes indicators derived from literature review. Respondents are thirty experts who are aware of the solar and wind energy industry in Iran and Germany and are selected by purposive sampling. In order to further justify the answers provided by the participants, various world statistical data is used and presented.
Keywords: comparative analysis; renewable energy; industry structure; Germany; Iran.
NATIONAL FEATURES FOR ALTERNATIVE MOTOR FUELS MARKET
by Anatoliy G. Goncharuk, Valeriy Havrysh, V.S. Nitsenko
Abstract: World progress of society and the use of power resources trends have been shown. Modern economic factors which influence on a production and applications of alternative fuels have been shown. Basic national features have been revealed.
Keywords: biofuel; alternative motor fuels; production; stimulation; efficiency.
How to Make Better Energy Policy Decisions? The Stock and Flow Perspective
by Hassan Qudrat-Ullah, Muhammad Ashiq, Naveed Subhani
Abstract: Energy policy issues and challenges abound. This paper addresses the energy policy as a complex, dynamic task whereby the planners and decision makers manage stocks of limited resources. The stock and flow perspective provides a unique and powerful set of tools to better equip the policy decision makers to take on these challenges. By making use of various tools and techniques of system dynamics methodology such as causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams, mathematical formulations, and structure-behavior graphs of various energy system processes, it is shown how the stock and flow perspective can effectively address energy policy issues. With an understanding of the physics of underlying feedback loop structures of an energy system, and structure-behavior graphs of various energy system processes including energy demand, policy incentives and inter-fuel substitution mechanism, and energy supply, the energy policy decision makers are expected to develop insights and make better decisions.
Keywords: Energy policy; stock and flow perspective; system dynamics; causal loop diagram; feedback loops; policy incentives.
Influence of Fiscal Regime Adjustment on Investment Climate of Marginal Oil Fields in Malaysia: A Scenario Analysis
by Abdulsalam Masud, Nor Aziah Abdul Manaf, Natrah Saad
Abstract: Since 1970s, oil and gas sector in Malaysia has been undergoing series of fiscal regime adjustments. The rationale of which was connected to the countrys desire to improve the investment climate of its remaining oil and gas fields. Recently in 2010, the fiscal changes were made for marginal fields. This new fiscal changes resulted in increase in tax incentives and change in fiscal arrangement from production sharing contract to risk service contract. In this study, a comparison of the marginal fields investment climate under old and new fiscal regimes was conducted using nine different scenarios relating to oil prices and reserve levels. The results using investors net present value and internal rate of return revealed that the new fiscal regime would likely render investment climate more favorable in the majority of the scenarios with the exception to those relating to high oil prices, which fiscal regime under the production sharing contract would likely be more favorable. The policy implication is that offering windfall incentive or increasing fields contractors remuneration would likely improve the attractiveness of the new fiscal regime under risk service contract. However, the caveat is that considerations should be given to the assumptions employed in the study while applying its findings for a decision.
Keywords: fiscal regime; fiscal arrangement; production sharing contract; risk service contract; tax incentives.
Optimal Power Flow Solution Considering Wind Integration Using Dance Bee Colony With Dynamic Step
by Belkacem Mahdad, Kamel Srairi, Boubakeur Hadji
Abstract: This article investigates the adaptation and application of a flexible variant based Dance Bee Colony (DBC) with dynamic step size for solving the optimal power flow (OPF) in the presence of multi wind sources. The particularity of the proposed planning strategy is that the active and reactive power generated by the wind sources to be dynamically exchanged with the network are optimized individually and simultaneously in coordination with other control variables such as: voltage and reactive power of generating units, and tap
transformers. Four objective functions have been considered, fuel cost, emission, power loss and voltage deviation. The effectiveness of the proposed OPF is validated on the IEEE 30-bus power system for different objective functions. Results found compared to recent techniques proves the ability of the proposed planning strategy based DBC for solving practical OPF problems considering the integration of wind sources.
Keywords: Optimal power flow; Wind sources; PSO_TVAC; Dance Bee colony; Power loss; Cost; Emission; Voltage Deviation.
A Fuzzy MCDM-Based Approach for Renewable Energy Technologies Prioritization
by Maryam Ebrahimi
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to build a decision model adapted to prioritize renewable energy technologies by applying fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. A comprehensive set of criteria is presented based on sustainability due to its importance in the long-term, particularly in the field of energy which is a key element of sustainable development. They are classified into five categories such as technical, economic, environmental, social, and political criteria. This model is then operationalized in the scope of solar energy technologies in Iran. This paper examines and compares the results of fuzzy TOPSIS, and fuzzy PROMETHEE based on a single decision maker. The results show that rather than the two technologies, others in both methods have moderate differences in ranking. However, technological decisions are preferred to be made based on FTOPSIS results because it is considered to be more realistic.
Keywords: renewable energy; technology prioritization; Iran; multi-criteria decision making; fuzzy logic.
A Framework to Identify and Overcome Barriers in Launching Sustainable Energy Projects in the Iranian Industrial Sector
by Reza Sirous, Rui Borges Lopes
Abstract: Iranian Resistance Economy policy embodies a strong focus on sustainable development and, respectively, in energy sustainability. A major issue in implementing the policy is how to facilitate the deployment of sustainability initiatives and eliminate existing barriers. This paper presents a framework for identifying and attempting overcoming these barriers using Soft Systems Methodology (SSM). The proposed framework also integrates other methods and is called Compound Sustainable Energy Launching (CSEL). This multi-methodology framework aims not only eliminating energy sustainability barriers but also an efficient assignment of capital investment on such initiatives. Applicability of the framework is analyzed on three Iranian companies of the industrial sector, for which main conclusions are presented and discussed.
Keywords: Energy; Energy sustainability; Multi-methodology; Barriers in sustainability; Capital investment; Iran.
Implementation of photovoltaic energy generation to reduce the cost of electricity in the water sector in Jordan
by Mohammed Al-Soud
Abstract: Water companies in Jordan pay approximately 150 million JOD per year for electricity, which represents, as of 2013, approximately 50% of the total operating expenses of the companies(1 USD=0.71JOD). Following the changes in the electricity tariff system occurred in 2013, electricity prices for the water sector will increase annually from 76 fils in 2013 to 133 fils in 2017 which will take the total electricity expenses to 250 million JOD per year (1JOD=1000 fils) .This study assessed and evaluated options to generate renewable energy (RE) as a means to reduce the cost of electricity in the water sector, the RE technology selected for this assessment has been the solar photovoltaic technology (PV). For this purpose, five water facilities were selected based on the available data. Energy yield assessments have taken into account the local irradiation conditions at each of the sites based on irradiation databases available. The two supporting mechanisms applicable to the present study are the net-metering and the power wheeling mechanisms .The proposed possible solutions for the implementation of PV projects including their economic sustainability and technical feasibility, with the possibility to be connected the RE systems to the grid. The results of our simulations show that, considering typical CAPEX and OPEX for PV projects in Jordan and the current electricity prices for end-users, the initiative is economically sustainable and might bring sensible benefits for the water companies.
Keywords: water pumping; photovoltaic; net-metering; power wheeling; CAPEX; OPEX.
A critical review of research trends for wind energy in Egypt: Recent progress and promising opportunities
by Mohammed Moness, Ahmed Moustafa
Abstract: Energy is a cornerstone for achieving industrial development and prosperous economy. Wind energy have the biggest share of renewable energy sector in many countries leading the way for replacing fossil fuels. Egypt, as one of the developing countries, is heading towards increasing penetration levels of wind power to face energy challenges. This strategy takes advantage of the investigated high potential of wind energy in several locations across Egypt. In order to gain most benefits and economical revenues from wind energy, a national research and development policies have to be deployed. Effective research policies enhance the capabilities of local industry for wind power technology. This review characterizes current progress and categorizes areas of interest for recent research of wind energy in Egypt. Accordingly, a vision for existing gaps, futuristic directions and promising areas for research is formulated.
Keywords: Renewable energy; Wind energy; Wind energy potential; Wind power technology; Egypt.
Optimal design of stand-alone hybrid power system using wind and solar energy sources
by Mouna LAMNADI
Abstract: Stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems are more reliable than one-energy source systems. However, their design is crucial. For this reason, a new methodology with simulation having as aim to design an autonomous hybrid PV-wind-battery system is proposed. Based on a triple multi-objective, the present methodology combines life cycle cost (LCC), embodied energy (EE) and loss of power supply probability (LPSP). For a location, meteorological and load data have been collected and assessed. Afterwards, components of the system and optimization objectives have been modelled. Finally, an optimal configuration has been put in place using a dynamic model and applying a controlled elitist genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization. This methodology has been applied successfully for the sizing of a PV-wind-battery system to supply at least 95% of yearly total electric demand of a residential house.
Keywords: Hybrid power systemr
Role of Public R&D funding in Fuel Cell; Analysis on Iranian Universities
by Javad Soltanzadeh, Reza Salami
Abstract: Achieving Sustainable Development (SD), environmental protection and security of energy supply are two main challenges of government in developed or developing countries. Energy experts believe that fuel cell and hydrogen energy technologies as a green technology will play a significant role in the portfolio for a future energy. In developed countries, technological regimes and its actors have self-willingness to track advanced technologies and new knowledge (such as Fuel Cell)due to poor innovative capabilities and lack of absorptive capacities, developing countries need to insert R&D expenditure in particular for public universities. What concerns should be considered in the public R&D funding? Or can governments promote Fuel Cell (FC) technology only by increasing R&D funding?
Based on the case of Iran, this paper discusses government intervention and R&D investment about knowledge creation in FC to achieve sustainable development. Having surveyed 900 papers published by Iranian researchers from 2000 to 2014, it can be shown that:1. Iran is 21th countries of published papers in Fuel Cell field; 2.Most of these papers focus on Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) and Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC); 3.More than eighty percent of total papers have been published by 23 public universities. It is argued that policymakers must create R&D network in national boundaries to improve funding efficiency and design effective policy to commercialize new created knowledge that encourages the demand side.
Keywords: Sustainable Development; Renewable Energy; Public R&D Funding; Fuel Cell; Iranian Universities.
Do Time Phase and Income Influence the Convergence in Energy Intensity? A Cross-Country Analysis
by Yu Sang Chang, Seongmin Jeon, NeiHei Park
Abstract: Countries energy intensity levels are known to converge at both global and regional levels. We test the convergence in energy intensity using a large recent data set: a 151-country sample during the period of 19802010. In addition, time phase and income are examined to identify the factors that influence a countrys aggregate level of energy intensity. With income time-phased analysis, we discovered a pronounced convergence during the period between 1980 and 1990 and then a moderate convergence later during the period. With the subgroup analysis, middle income yields the most rapid convergence. Furthermore, high incomes negative role is so pervasive that non-convergence or divergence may take place.
Keywords: Energy Intensity; Convergence; Time phased; Income; Distribution Dynamics.
Factors influencing grid interactive wind power industry in India
by Manjushree Banerjee, Gautam Dutta
Abstract: Increasing wind power capacities demand increased private sector participation while states are responsible for the renewable projects as well as for achieving their renewable targets. The paper aims at identifying the influencing factors in scaling up of grid interactive wind power through the lens of entrepreneurs and state policies. Adequate tariff, savings on power expenditure in industries, Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) targets, long-term Power Purchase Agreements, liberal energy banking and favourable open access policies are found to be encouraging while insufficient tariff, delayed payments, policy uncertainties, limitations in energy banking and difficult land processes are counted as barriers. Country level analysis reveals that presently the installed capacities are unable to respond to the state wind tariff though it strongly responds to the power tariff for industries. Suggestions to develop a policy scenario wherein the installed capacities respond to the state tariff are proposed. The scope of wind power is to be enhanced through favourable open access policies and high RPO targets.
Keywords: Grid interactive wind power; State policies; Entrepreneurs; Barriers; Influencing factors; India.
A methodology for the technical and financial implementation of photovoltaic technology in Choc
by Hector David Agudelo Arias, Andres Julian Aristizabal Cardona
Abstract: This work shows a methodology for the implementation of photovoltaic (PV) technology in the Pacific region of Choc
Keywords: photovoltaic; energy policy; energy costs; renewable energy.
Trend appraisal of Nigeria's Energy Sector and its Implication on Living Standards
by Chukwunonso Nwoye
Abstract: Utility capacity and energy consumption in Nigeria over a 10 year period 2005-2014 were analyzed. Improvement was recorded from 2010 through 2014 for yearly and monthly peak load demand and energy consumption. The coming on stream of some national integrated power project (NIPP) plants, reduction in vandalism of gas infrastructure following the presidential amnesty to Niger delta militant in august 2009, the launching of power sector road map in 2010 which saw to the eventual privatization of power generation and distribution and mean monthly reservoir inflow for kainji dam respectively were seen to influence the yearly and monthly energy distribution. By regression technique, per capita electricity consumption (EC/capita) was used to predict to a reasonable degree of accuracy the living standard indicators- infrastructure availability and purchasing power parity. The implication of this therefore is that for there to be a positive shift in the economic and social well-being of the populace attention must be given to the provision of functional energy infrastructure.
Keywords: Energy consumption. Utility capacity. Normal distribution. Regression technique.
Sizing and optimization of a photovoltaic pumping system
by Abdelhamid Ksentini, Elbahi Azzag, Ahmed Bensalem
Abstract: The geographical location of Algeria promotes the development and growth of the use of solar energy. Indeed given the importance of the intensity of the radiation received and the duration of sunshine that exceeds ten hours a day for several months, our country can cover some of the needs in solar energy, these advantages could be beneficial in the most remote regions especially in applications of photovoltaic pumping. Many people in rural areas of developing countries face major water problems. These problems are especially pronounced in desert and semi-desert. The water shortage in arid and semi-arid areas is a vital issue for people. Improving living conditions in these areas is linked to the search for adequate solutions to the problem. The solar photovoltaic pump is the ideal solution for water supply where traditional power is not available. Presented in this work the modeling and the dimensioning of a photovoltaic pumping system constituted by an asynchronous motor with cage coupled to a centrifugal pump. We will then opt to use a system adopting MPPT optimization method, namely the fuzzy logic control. The set is powered by a Photovoltaic Generator (PVG) through two static converters (chopper DC / DC, PWM inverter) controlled independently.
Keywords: Photovoltaic conversion system; MPPT; Chopper; Multi-levels inverter NPC; asynchronous machine; Water pumping.
Project Finance and Investment in the Oil and Gas Industry in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Ghana
by Efiba Kwarteng, Yarhands Dissou Arthur, John Ayer
Abstract: Indigenous entrepreneurs within the oil and gas industry in developing countries are usually unable to raise start-up and working capital. The absences of sufficient collateral and clearly written business plans, among others are the major setbacks in accessing funds from banks. Meanwhile, high interest rates and bank charges affect loan repayment in developing countries such as Ghana. The study was to identify possible avenues for funding oil and gas projects and challenges indigenous firms (SMEs) within the oil and gas value chain encounter in accessing funds. A questionnaire survey was performed involving some banks and oil and gas companies in Ghana. The results in this study indicate that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have lower success rate in accessing bank loans than Large Enterprises due to repayment risk. However, it was observed that banks and other financial institutions could resort to the project finance method to reduce such risk for projects within the oil and gas industry. Our finding indicate that indigenous entrepreneurs who venture into projects in the Ghanaian oil and gas industry face challenges in raising start-up capital. Project finance is a viable avenue for SMEs to finance oil and gas projects in developing countries despite the associated bottlenecks.
Keywords: Project Finance; Developing Countries; funds; Oil and Gas industry.
Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A causality evidence
by Festus Victor Bekun, Seyi Saint Akadiri, Elham Taheri, Ada Chigozie Akadiri
Abstract: Recently, there has been a growing interest on environmental issues, due to climatic-based problems associated with escalated levels of pollution and degradation of the environmental quality. This is widely believed to be caused by increased economic and human activities. The primary focus of this paper is to examine the causal and long-run relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth for Iraq. We apply the bounds test for cointegration and Toda-Yamamoto for a Granger causality test using annual data for the period from 1972 to 2013. The sample coverage is restricted by data unavailability. Empirical results propose unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption and from carbon emissions to energy consumption in the long-run. Findings reveal that there is no feedback relationships between economic growth, carbon emissions and energy consumption of Iraq.
Keywords: Carbon emissions; energy consumption; economic growth; Granger causality: Iraq.
Assessment and validation of the offshore wind resource using WRF-derived and CCMP L3.0 ocean winds: South Coast of South Africa
by Zaccheus Olaofe
Abstract: The offshore wind resource maps assessed from the WRF-derived and CCMP L3.0 ocean winds of RMESS off the south coast of South Africa are presented. As the costs of erecting high-quality observation masts on the coasts are inhibitive, the assessment of offshore wind resource relies on the mesoscale modeling or/and satellite ocean winds. Hence, the wind resource maps at 10 m amsl off the south coast were assessed from a regional climate model based on 3-km mesoscale wind simulations of 6-hourly resolution for the period of October 2006 to December 2011. Due to terrain inhomogeneity, the boundary layer winds were refined by accounting for how the mesoscale model description of topography impacts the ocean wind at 28 offshore stations. To assess the ability of the mesoscale model in simulating the near-surface ocean winds off the south coast as a basis for high-resolution wind resource assessment, the CCMP L3.0 ocean winds derived from combination of cross calibrated satellite observations at 10 m amsl were utilized. The mean deviations of the WRF wind speed and power density range between -0.29 and 0.35 m/s; -33 and 60 W/m2, respectively when validated against the CCMP ocean winds after correction (downscaling), representing a significant improvement of the boundary layer wind speed and direction after terrain effect corrections. Furthermore, the statistical downscaled winds were compared with the station measured winds at 60 m height over the land. The existence of large-scale wind resource at 10 m amsl height was recorded off the south coast. It is presented that the WRF modeling based on knowledge of the spatial and temporal scales of the atmospheric phenomena at a proposed site can be fully utilized for assessing the wind resource potentials at coastal region and over the land.
Keywords: Offshore wind resource; WRF modeling; CCMP L3.0 winds; Weibull method of moment; maximum likelihood method; South Africa.
Neural Network with Genetic Algorithm for Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Load Demand
by Chawalit Jeenanunta, Kuruge Darshana Abeyrathna
Abstract: Short-term load forecasting is to forecast the next day electricity demand for 48 periods and it is important to make decisions related to the electricity generation and distribution. Neural Network (NN) is selected for forecasting the future electricity consumption since its ability of recognizing and learning non-linear patterns of data. This research proposes the combination usage of Genetic Algorithm (GA) to train the Neural Network and results are compared with the results from backpropagation. Data from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is used in this research to demonstrate the performance of the proposed technique. The data set contains weekday (excluding Mondays) load demand from 1st of October to 30th of November, 2013. November load is forecasted using an NN with 192 inputs and 48 outputs. Even though GA takes more time for training neural networks, it gives better results compared to backpropagation.
Keywords: Genetic algorithm; Encoding; Neural network; Optimize Neural Network’s Weights; Forecasting; Short-term load forecasting;.
Alternative Projection of the 2040 Nuclear Power for Eight Countries
by Yu Sang Chang, Jinyoung Jinnie Yoo
Abstract: This study projected nuclear electricity intensity for eight countries China, U.S., India, South Korea, Japan, Canada and Brazil - which in turn is used to estimate net nuclear electricity generation for year 2020, 2030, and 2040. The net nuclear electricity generation projected by this study then was compared to those projected in the 2013 International Energy Outlook published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The 2040 projection from this study is 57.7% higher than Energy Information Administrations projection for China and also 54% higher for the U.S. For four other countries, Energy Information Administrations projections are higher than those from this study, but by a smaller margin. Implications from the findings will be discussed.
Keywords: Nuclear electricity intensity; Net nuclear electricity generation; Experience curve; Kinked experience curve; Progress ratio.
Evaluating the Operational Flexibility for Wind Energy Integration in Nigeria using a Security Constraint Unit Commitment Model
by Richardson Omorodje Eni, John-Felix Kayode Akinbami
Abstract: The study evaluated the flexible techno-economic operations of thermal plants for sustainable wind power integration into the Nigerian Electricity Industry using security constraint unit commitment approach. This provides empirical evidence on the thermal power plants capability to back-up variable generation from wind energy. Relative to the current generation mix, 10 and 20% wind energy penetration increased the system spinning reserve per day from 702.5 to 1507.5 and 2107.5 MW respectively. Thermal plants total numbers of start-up per day decreased from 23 to 14 and 18, and shutdown hours per day decreased from 52 to 44 and 49 hrs in 10 and 20% wind energy integrated system, respectively. Greenhouse emission reduction per day were 1746.6 and 3254.4 lb, and thermal plants operational revenue reduced by 3.7 and 7.0% daily in 10 and 20% wind energy integrated system, respectively.
Keywords: Energy Integration; Flexible Operations; Thermal Power; Unit Commitment Model; Wind energy.
Renewable Energy based Hybrid Model for Rural Electrification
by Priyanka Anand, Sarbjeet Kaur Bath, Mohammad Rizwan
Abstract: The distributed power generation is playing an important role for the rural electrification in developing countries like India. In this work, a hybrid model based on renewable energy sources has been developed on the basis of availability of the resources at the proposed site. This paper present the hybrid model based on biomass-biogas-solar PV to supply the electric power in rural areas of Sonipat, Haryana, India where grid supply is not available or rarely available. The hybrid system is modeled by considering various parameters associated with each system component. Different models are developed on the basis of available resources and optimized for total annualized cost (TAC) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach. Obtained results shows that the TAC of the optimal configuration at 0% unmet load is $ 64109 and the cost of energy is $ 0.065 per kWh. The results at various unmet loads are also presented and found satisfactory. The results of the proposed approach are compared with harmony search (HS) algorithm and found in the desired limits.
Keywords: biomass; hybrid modeling; renewable energy; solar energy; total annualized cost; unmet load.
Multi-criteria optimization of a cane flexi-factory
by Abdel Khoodaruth
Abstract: The sugar cane industry is at stake due to the fall in prices of sugar. The industry has to re-engineer itself to a cane flexi-factory for its survival. A cane flexi-factory consists of a sugar mills, cogeneration power plant, bio-ethanol distillery, value-added sugars refinery and a bio-fertilizer manufacturing plant. Although one such refinery is in operation in Mauritius, the area of land area under sugar cultivation is decreasing. The outputs of the flexi-factory can be increased through implementation of higher pressure boiler; higher fibre cane; energy cane; cane tops and leaves; addition of a falling thin film evaporator and use drip irrigation technique. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the possible options to optimize the performance of a flexi-factory through the multi-criteria assessment approach. The outcome of the assessment will help policy makers to prioritize the implementation of these alternatives in the short, medium and long term.
Keywords: Sugar cane; electricity; cogeneration; multi-criteria assessment; small islands development states.
Novel hydroelectricity data envelopment analysis model
by Kenneth David Strang
Abstract: Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric technique in the operations research field for the estimation of efficiency rates in policy decision making models. DEA has been applied in the electric utilities sector, such as hydroelectricity policy making decisions, but the problem is that there are no published case studies using an actual clean renewable electricity generation facility. DEA applies a simple concept of making the inputs balance with the outputs as an overall efficiency rate. In this paper a DEA model is developed using a spreadsheet to inform policy decision making for a clean renewable hydroelectricity plant located in a natural park preserve. The objective function of the model was to make the minimum changes to the proposed policy rates for hydroelectricity generation subject to the known capabilities and risks. A unique aspect of the model was that risk was calculated based on water reservoir depth historical average using a beta distribution. The decision variables were the proposed changes to the policy rates for each month. The simplex linear programming technique was used and implemented in a spreadsheet. Screen shots were included to illustrate how to setup the spreadsheet. The results of this paper should generalize to policy makers, practitioners, analysts and researchers in the public utility and specifically in the clean renewable hydroelectricity community.
Keywords: Data envelopment analysis; operations research; hydroelectricity; clean renewable energy; park; risk; beta distribution; spreadsheet office automation software models.
Renewable energy demand in the Lebanese economy
by Hanadi Taher
Abstract: This paper studies the renewable energy development in Lebanon. We formulate a model for testing the energy demand based on electricity consumption as proxy for renewable energy usage and other independent variables and develop a set of recommendations regarding the renewable energy development. We test model using a simple regression data set for Lebanon from 1990 to 2013. The results indicate that energy demand is influenced negatively by electricity consumption, which reflect the renewable energy development in Lebanon. The renewable energy in Lebanon is still in its early stages although it varies from one sector to another thus development here could be leaded through public and private institutions. Our research findings focus on the role of private and public policies for leading innovation in the renewable energy system as the new energy future for Lebanon and well for the region.
Keywords: Renewable Energy; Energy Demand; Energy in Lebanon.
Energy Efficiency and Company Performance in Japanese Listed Companies
by Rayenda Brahmana, Hiroya Ono
Abstract: This research empirically investigates the relationship between energy efficiency and company performance for a pooled sample of 177 listed companies in Japan over 2005-2014. We find that energy efficiency plays a significant role in company performance in Japan, thereby debunking the energy efficiency paradox. Our research further indicates that this energy efficiency not only affects the market-based performance (Tobins Q), but it also significantly impacts the accounting-book performance (Return on Assets). The findings present significant contributions to both the academic body of knowledge and the industry. The findings can also provide a basis for the Japanese government to encourage companies to enact more energy efficient practices.
Keywords: Energy Efficiency; Company Performance; Tobin’s Q; ROA; Japan.
Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Modelling in SADC Countries: An Application of the VAR Granger Causality Analysis
by Tafirenyika Sunde
Abstract: The study investigated the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in 10 SADC countries using the VAR model over the period 1971 to 2015. The variables used were first converted to growth rates before they were used in the model estimated. The results indicate unidirectional causality running from real economic growth to energy consumption in Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius, Namibia, bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Botswana and Mauritius and no causality in Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In countries where real economic growth Granger causes energy consumption the conservation hypothesis is confirmed. In countries where no causality was found the neutrality hypothesis is confirmed which implies that energy conservation will not lead to decreased economic growth and energy consumption will not be stimulated by economic growth. The feedback hypothesis confirmed in Botswana and Mauritius implies that an increase in the economic output will increase the level of energy consumption while an energy conservation policy will adversely affect economic output.
Keywords: Economic growth; energy consumption; VAR model; Granger causality; SADC countries.
An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Rural Population Growth in Electricity Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa
by Nyakundi Michieka
Abstract: The objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between rural and urban population on electricity consumption in 5 Sub-Saharan countries between 1971 and 2013. Results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing approach indicate that rural population plays a larger role in electricity consumption than the urban population in C
Keywords: Rural and Urban Population; Electricity consumption; Sub-Saharan Africa.
A system dynamics approach to analyzing bioethanol and biodiesel supply chains: Increasing bioethanol and biodiesel market shares in the United States
by Hamid Ghaderi, Hossein Gitinavard, Mir Saman Pishvaee
Abstract: This paper proposes a system dynamics model to study and analyze bioethanol and biodiesel supply chains. The proposed model is a powerful tool for investigating the interactions among different variables of bioethanol and biodiesel supply chains. In this study, it is used for constructing scenarios to investigate appropriate policy options and their possible future effects on the market share of bioethanol and biodiesel in the United States. Inasmuch as the main objective of this study is to increase the market share of both bioethanol and biodiesel, and a reasonable balance is required to be created between bioethanol and biodiesel market shares, a scenario-based sensitivity analysis is conducted to this end. The results of sensitivity analysis demonstrate that causing an increase in oil plant and biodiesel production and a decrease in corn and bioethanol production results in an increase in both bioethanol and biodiesel market shares as well as a fair balance between them. In addtion to sensitivity analysis of the model, policy implications assoicated with increasing biofuel production in the United States are provided. For validating the proposed model, behavior reproduction test is done. Also, adding the other alternative fuel supply chains to the model; considering more detailed components; and incorporating environmental and social indicators besides an economic indicator are presented as the future research directions.
Keywords: Corn; Oil plants; Bioethanol; Biodiesel; Supply chain management; System dynamics; Scenario-based analysis.
Special Issue on: RESRB 2016 Renewable Energy Technology, Business and Policy
A service based business model for rapid diffusion of solar water heaters in India
by Auroshis Rout, Sudhansu Sahoo, Sanju Thomas, Shinu Varghese
Abstract: Commercialization of decentralized renewable energy products is a key challenge across the globe. This paper proposes an innovative business model to handle this issue. When this model was applied to a solar water heater along with porters five force approach, business opportunity was found. Though solar water heater is expensive, it is a technically and economically viable option. The unique selling proposition of this innovative business model is formation of a new service based company which will invest in installation and maintenance of solar water heaters and collect money from the end users on a monthly basis just like electricity bill. The service is being provided at 10% discount rate to electricity, in case used for heating water. So the main issue behind adoption of solar water heater, high capital cost has been resolved. This model can be considered as a platform for energy policy makers in developing countries like India.
Keywords: Solar water heater; Business Model; Porter’s five force; Feasibility analysis; Energy Policy.
Renewable energy and sustainable economic growth of Rwanda: Energy policy implications
by Michel Rwema, Wojciech M. Budzianowski
Abstract: Over the last 10 years, about 70% of the people in Rwanda live without access to electricity. Currently, biomass is the dominant energy source contributing about 85% of Rwandas total energy supply. Consequently, around 90% of the rural population majorly rely on biomass for cooking and lighting among other uses. The use of renewable energy is at its infancy with geothermal and wind energy sources presently unexploited regardless of their significant potential. This paper assesses the renewable energy status and its contribution towards economic growth of Rwanda. It also stresses energy policy insights and implications for sustainability. It was noted that total renewable energy increased by 144% within the first period of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS I). This was due to several measures and strategies undertaken for development of the energy sector. Such measures included promoting the use of small and mini grids in power generation. The authors recommend the government to significantly allocate necessary resources to sustain the renewable energy strategies. This is likely to boost exploitation of renewable resources such as solar, biogas and untapped wind further promoting the countrys economic growth and development.
Keywords: Renewable Energy; Economic Growth; Sustainability; Energy Policy; Rwanda.
Enhancing low-carbon economic growth by renewable energy uptake in countries with per capita gross domestic product between 10 and 20 kUSD
by Wojciech Budzianowski
Abstract: The study investigates how countries with per capita gross domestic@ product between 10 and 20 kUSD (further referred to as middle-income countries) should shape domestic economies to enhance low-carbon economic growth and how low-carbon transition can be eventually turned to opportunity. The research starts from comparing and analysing middle-income economies, especially their CO2 emissions indicators. Also relationships between CO2 emissions and income for 138 countries obtained by applying regression analysis are constructed and evaluated. Outcomes from these analyses are configured in the form of climate policy. The proposed climate policy involves a set of key low-carbon technologies and affordable assets fitting the needs of middle-income countries. Besides, the climate policy aims to create the enabling business environment relying on economic, societal, regulatory and political enablers. The resulting economic system facilitates clean renewable energy uptake and triggers sustainable economic development finally potentially leading to low-carbon economic growth. The study emphasises that by making effective technologies and assets choices and reducing system costs, middle-income countries might be able to deliver affordable energy, thus driving industrialisation and finally enhancing economic growth. The proposed economic instruments can ease investments in capital intensive renewable energy infrastructures primarily by increasing capital availability, managing risks and reducing interest rates which are all typically unfavourable in middle-income countries. While implementing the proposed climate policy in different middle-income countries local contexts need to be considered to account for differences in renewable energy uptake potential and economic environment. The rationale developed in the present study can be used in policymaking for creating climate friendly economic growth policies and in academia for extending models testing the effectiveness of different climate policy mixes.
Keywords: Economic growth; enabling business environment; environmental Kuznets curve; low-carbon economy; middle-income country; renewable energy.
Influence of technological improvement and adoption rate of biogas industry on greenhouse gas footprint of the energy system of Poland between 2000 and 2100
by Wojciech Budzianowski
Abstract: Biogas industry has complex value chain which increases its life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint and reduces Energy Return on Invested (ERoI). Therefore, the effect of biogas industry on GHG footprint of energy systems needs to be well understood. This paper investigates the influence of technological improvement and adoption rate of biogas industry on GHG footprint of the Polish energy system by using a scenario analysis from 2000 to 2100. The main findings reveal that today the size of the biogas industry is too small to affect Polands GHG emissions. However, in next few decades, along with growing biogas production capacity, this influence might become more pronounced if GHG footprint of biogas industry is successfully reduced.
Keywords: biogas; greenhouse gas; life cycle analysis; energy system; Poland.