International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management (7 papers in press)
A novel diagnostic prognostic approach for rehabilitated RC structures based on integrated probabilistic deterioration models
by Ahmed Mohammed Abdelalim
Abstract: The task of maintaining the huge stock of structures provides both owners and engineers with financial and technical challenges. On the one hand, owners of public structures, such as relevant authorities and government agencies, are faced with questions which relate to the "managerial aspect" of structural maintenance. "Which structures need to be repaired, which need to be demolished and which require minimum maintenance?"; "How can the available funding be best used for maintenance?"; Such questions have to be answered. To this end, a comprehensive management system is needed to assist high level policy-makers in allocating resources for maintenance, and for providing managers with relevant guidelines for developing detailed maintenance plans. Building managers are increasingly faced with having to maintain their building assets more efficiently whilst reducing the short- and long-term cost of rehabilitation. Several approaches employing a Markovian model have been adapted to the bridge structure domain; fewer in the domain of concrete buildings. The present paper describes a parallel approach to maintenance management used in bridge structures, but adapted to the maintenance of RC buildings. The maintenance of several components of a concrete structural system is considered in the context of both yearly and longer-term maintenance planning. The significance of different components in relation to others in the system is determined by first conducting a Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) on all structural/nonstructural elements. The FMECA permits developing a component criticality index from which their relative importance is assigned amongst the different building components. An optimisation of different possible maintenance actions is considered in relation to the cost of specified actions or replacement of components based on a multi-objective index. This index provides a means of relating competing maintenance objectives; that of controlling maintenance intervention costs and maintaining component condition ratings. It provides yearly maintenance costs of individual components for a given structural system over a long-term horizon that spans the life of the buildings.
Keywords: concrete buildings; building maintenance; component deterioration; failure mode analysis; criticality index; multi-objective index; condition rating; maintenance; Markovian models; decision making; optimisation.
Job satisfaction determinants and assessment: the case of a Greek public agency under organisational change
by Efstratios Meimaridis, Christina Diakaki
Abstract: In 2017, the Single Agency for Social Insurance (EFKA) emerged in Greece via integrating the pre-existing independent insurance funds, with little, if any, involvement of the employees. As it is known that organisational changes may compromise job satisfaction and consequently organisational performance, it is beneficial for organisations to make efforts to ensure the satisfaction of employees, and the first step in this respect is understanding and assessing their job satisfaction. Within this context, it is the aim of the study presented herein to identify the satisfaction determinants of EFKA employees, assess their satisfaction levels, and highlight job aspects calling for attention and/or improvement. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken and data were analysed with statistical techniques and action diagrams. The results of the analyses indicated several job dimensions with contributions in overall satisfaction with most important, and at the same time critical, the Work tasks and development dimension.
Keywords: job satisfaction determinants; job satisfaction assessment; organisational change; public sector; statistical analysis; action diagrams.
Risk dimensions of a vertical Chinese expansion in the Greek tourism sector: the Chinese side
by Angeliki N. Menegaki, George Agiomirgianakis
Abstract: The soaring Chinese outbound tourism, the agglomeration of Chinese investment in Greece and the attractiveness of Greece as a Mediterranean tourist destination jointly generate motives for Chinese entrepreneurs to invest in the Greek tourism sector. However, to the best of our knowledge, a risk analysis of Chinese vertical integration in tourist businesses has received a rather limited research attention. The purpose of this paper is to investigate Chinese investment in the Greek tourism sector on a multiple dimensional risk analysis involving economic, environmental, social and cultural risks that could be possibly faced by prospective Chinese tourism investors in Greece. This paper will help Chinese public agents in reducing asymmetric information associated with an expansion in Greek tourism market.
Keywords: Chinese tourism; Greece; industrial tourism; risk; vertical integration.
Risk assessment of failure in the assembly of rotors during manufacturing process: a case study
by Jose Pereira, Marcelo Fragoso
Abstract: This paper proposes a framework for identifying the most significant risks during the rotor assembly process, based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Risk assessment in the rotor assembly process is essential to prevent operational failure, reduce the rate of operational accidents and avoid financial losses. The assembly of rotors is a very critical process and the selection and use of an adequate risk assessment method is crucial to ensure assembly reliability, product quality and organisation sustainability. As far as the authors are aware, AHP and BBN methods have not been used before to assess and prioritise the risks in the rotor assembly process. The application of the method revealed that the most significant risks in the rotor assembly process are related to software malfunction, program failure, system function failure and poor integration of hardware with software. The paper also proposes responses to these risks aiming at preventing the occurrence of failure in the rotor assembly process. The analysis put forward here may be an invaluable source for maintenance professionals, safety engineers and decision makers in companies, in the sense that it augments their information and helps to identify critical risks in the rotor assembly process. The identification and prioritisation of risk factors makes it easier to allocate resources to prevent rotor failure, improve product quality and ensure organisation sustainability.
Keywords: risk assessment; Bayesian belief network; analytic hierarchy process; rotor assembly; product quality; organisation sustainability.
Capital controls: a tool to protect an economy under pressure? The cases of Cyprus, a Eurozone member, and Iceland
by Georgios Gad, Emmanuel Petrakis
Abstract: This paper considers the effectiveness of capital controls as a protective action. We analyse the recent cases of Iceland and Cyprus, and examine the extent to which the controls on free capital movement delivered the outcome that motivated their imposition in each country. The methodology used examines the main macro-economic indicators and attempts to locate significant variations pre- and post-capital controls. The results indicate that controls were only partially successful. In the case of Iceland, they did not manage to control the pressure over foreign exchange rate. In the case of Cyprus, controls achieved only partially control of outflows. Belonging to Eurozone was not proven to be a negative factor for measures success, as indicated in the case of Cyprus.
Keywords: capital controls; capital controls effectiveness; capital flows; financial crisis; Eurozone; Cyprus; Iceland.
Risk management in construction projects: a study on the state-of-practice
by Georgia Fevranoglou, Christina Diakaki
Abstract: Construction, a key economic activity worldwide, is vulnerable to several risks, which compromise the successful completion of construction projects, and call for the implementation of risk management activities. Within this context, it is the aim of the study presented in this paper to investigate the current state of risk management practice in construction projects along with the factors that affect it, and the relationship of risk management to the success of projects. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken among professionals of medium and large construction companies active in the regions of Greece and Middle East, and data were analysed with statistical techniques. The analysis results indicate that construction companies, irrespective of size and region, get engaged in, but do not systematically implement, risk management activities during the whole lifecycle of their projects, a fact that influences the successful completion of projects in terms of compliance to budget, time schedule, and specifications and standards.
Keywords: construction projects; construction project success; risk management in construction projects; risk management implementation; barriers to risk management implementation; risk management state-of-practice; statistical analysis.
Special Issue on: Performance Management
The determinants affecting the preference of Islamic banking services in Tunisia
by Mohamed Bechir Chenguel
Abstract: In any economy, the banking sector plays a key role in the regulation and stability of the financial sector. Thus the quality of services provided by banks is of great importance in attracting potential customers. In Tunisia, conventional banks dominate the banking sector, and the small number of Islamic banks could not make the balance in this sector. But we must recognise that Islamic banks in Tunisia, despite their small number, have not stopped increasing their turnover, and are making considerable efforts to attract more and more customers. The purpose of our work is to take a closer look at the factors that may well influence consumers, and push them to adopt Islamic banking. As part of our research, we developed an econometric study, using data collected with a questionnaire sampling method. The adapted survey questionnaire used in this study distributed 328 questionnaires and successfully received 141 questionnaires. Questionnaire data were processed by SPSS econometric data processing software. We developed a descriptive approach, and an approach based on correlation and multiple regression analysis. The econometric results based on regression and correlation showed us a relationship between the dependent variable (adoption of Islamic banking) and other independent variables (degree of religiosity, consumer knowledge, reputation, tariffs and costs, and advertising. Based on the results, we found factors that influence the adoption of Islamic banking in Tunisia, namely the degree of religiosity, consumer awareness, reputation and tariffs and costs. Only the advertising factor has an effect that is not significant.
Keywords: Islamic finance in Tunisia; adoption of Islamic banking; Islamic banks.