Implementation of the results of the uncertainty analysis of the COSYMA package for zoning purposes Online publication date: Sat, 08-Dec-2007
by Louis H.J. Goossens, J. Arthur Jones, Joachim Ehrhardt
International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (IJRAM), Vol. 8, No. 1/2, 2008
Abstract: The EC and US probabilistic accident consequence codes, COSYMA and MACCS, respectively, estimate the risks and other endpoints associated with hypothetical accidents at nuclear installations. A joint project for an uncertainty analysis of these two codes used a rigorous expert judgement procedure with multiple experts. For all assessments, eight panels of six to ten experts were used. The uncertainty analysis of COSYMA evaluated the uncertainty on 191 endpoints for three different situations that are of relevance to regulatory processes in different European countries. The uncertainties were evaluated for three source terms. In this way the study encompassed a wide range of source terms and other situations that have been considered in safety assessments of nuclear power plants. This paper will mainly deal with two aspects: (1) relating predictions using default parameter values and providing a basis for determining where the 95th envelope in the uncertainty analysis lies and (2) how to estimate uncertainties in a level-3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) by applying the results of the uncertainty study for other situations. For individual risk, an example will be shown for zoning around nuclear power plants.
Online publication date: Sat, 08-Dec-2007
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management (IJRAM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:
Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.
If you still need assistance, please email email@example.com