Title: Implementation of the results of the uncertainty analysis of the COSYMA package for zoning purposes

Authors: Louis H.J. Goossens, J. Arthur Jones, Joachim Ehrhardt

Addresses: Faculty of Technology Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Safety Science Group, Delft NL-2628 BX, The Netherlands. ' Department of Environmental Assessments, Radiation Protection Division, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Health Protection Agency, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK. ' Research Centre Karlsruhe (FZK), Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (IKET), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen D-76344, Germany

Abstract: The EC and US probabilistic accident consequence codes, COSYMA and MACCS, respectively, estimate the risks and other endpoints associated with hypothetical accidents at nuclear installations. A joint project for an uncertainty analysis of these two codes used a rigorous expert judgement procedure with multiple experts. For all assessments, eight panels of six to ten experts were used. The uncertainty analysis of COSYMA evaluated the uncertainty on 191 endpoints for three different situations that are of relevance to regulatory processes in different European countries. The uncertainties were evaluated for three source terms. In this way the study encompassed a wide range of source terms and other situations that have been considered in safety assessments of nuclear power plants. This paper will mainly deal with two aspects: (1) relating predictions using default parameter values and providing a basis for determining where the 95th envelope in the uncertainty analysis lies and (2) how to estimate uncertainties in a level-3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) by applying the results of the uncertainty study for other situations. For individual risk, an example will be shown for zoning around nuclear power plants.

Keywords: accident consequence modelling; emergency management; expert judgement; risk assessment; uncertainty analysis; risk zoning; risk management; emergency management; nuclear accidents; nuclear power plants; nuclear energy; probabilistic safety; assessment; PSA; emergency planning zones.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2008.016196

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2008 Vol.8 No.1/2, pp.145 - 157

Published online: 08 Dec 2007 *

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