International Journal of Trade and Global Markets (7 papers in press)

Regular Issues

• Global value chain, trade and digitalisation: a comprehensive review  
  by Ekta Verma, Sandeep Kaur 
  Abstract: Global value chains (GVCs) have emerged as an essential element of international trade, enabling firms to divide manufacturing processes across several countries. The introduction of digitalisation has remarkably transformed the GVCs and developed new dynamics that alter how products and services are designed, delivered, and utilised internationally. The review paper discusses the connection between the GVC, Trade, and digitalisation, highlighting how digital technologies are transforming and reshaping conventional GVCs. The present review paper underlines that digitalisation improves the production process and cost of communication and enhances quality and transparency, contributing to the accessibility, economy, and efficiency of global trade. Additionally, the review discusses the opportunities and threats for developing nations and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to integrate GVC with digitalisation. Ultimately, this analysis emphasises how important digitalisation is to how trade and countries are conducted worldwide in the future.
  Keywords: GVC; global value chain; international trade; digitalisation; transformation; digital technologies; manufacturing; digital economy; SMEs; small and medium enterprises.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072098
   
  
• Identifying target export countries through network analysis: the case of Turkish hazelnut export  
  by Nimet Kalkan, Şengül Duran 
  Abstract: This study investigates Turkiyes hazelnut export network to identify target export countries and evaluate whether they are probable targets for the hazelnut market. The research is based on network theory and examines Turkiye by the cooccurrences of exports to 121 countries from 41 provinces of Turkiye. The results show that the USA, the UK, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are in central positions in Turkiyes hazelnut network. After evaluating the results at the country level, the findings suggest that these countries are potential targets for expanding the hazelnut exports of Turkiye. The research, revealing the issue in Turkiye, the leader in hazelnut production and exports, highlights for the policymakers the importance of handling the issue from a network perspective in trade decisions, enlightening them about its significance in shaping a new sustainable world trade order.
  Keywords: international trade; sustainable trade; network analysis; network theory; hazelnut export; export network; target export countries; UCINET; centrality; Türkiye.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072635
   
  
• The dividend enigma: deciphering the effect on Indian ETF performance in stress and normal periods  
  by Ishwar Sharma, Chanchal Saini, Komal Jindal 
  Abstract: This study explored the effect of Dividend events on the performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in India during both normal and stressful market conditions. While dividend effects on individual equities are well documented, their influence on ETF pricing dynamics especially in emerging markets remains underexplored. We utilised standard event study methodology and tested our findings across four event windows to ensure robustness. In addition, we employed both the t-test (parametric) and the Corrado test (non-parametric) statistics to check the significance of abnormal returns. We found that dividend events in normal situations provide profitable opportunities for short-term traders. They could take a long position before the ex-dividend date, as positive cumulative returns are observed before that date. After that date, a short position would be helpful for them in making profits. On the other hand, short-term traders have limited profitable opportunities during market stress; their best option is to earn by tracking market movements.
  Keywords: ETFs performance; dividend announcement; ex-dividend; event study; ETFs; exchange-traded funds.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072651
   
  
• Prices and competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports under the Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) policy  
  by Imade Yoga Prasada, Aura Dhamira, Dinda Dewi Aisyah, Ayu Putri Merry Anisya 
  Abstract: The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) implements the Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) policy as an effort to stabilise the price of natural rubber on the international market by limiting the volume of natural rubber exports from ITRC member countries, including Indonesia. This research was conducted with the aim of evaluating the impact of the AETS policy implementation on the price and competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports in destination countries. The data used is secondary data and is arranged in the form of panel data from 26 countries within the period of 2000 to 2022. The data was analysed using the RCA method, the two-stage least squares (2SLS) model, and the PSM model. Results show that the AETS policy implemented has not been able to have a significant impact on increasing the export price of Indonesian natural rubber. However, higher export prices have a negative relationship with the competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports in destination countries.
  Keywords: AETS; Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme; competitiveness; natural rubber; price; 2SLS; two-stage least squares.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072695
   
  
• The impact of globalisation on business cycle synchronisation: the case of ASEAN5  
  by Jia Xin Ng, Zhi Nie Seet, Siok Kun Sek 
  Abstract: The study examines the impact of globalisation on business cycle synchronisation between ASEAN5 and partner countries: China (CHN), Japan (JPN) and United States (USA) from 1982 to 2021 using static and dynamic Common Correlated Effect estimators. It aims to: 1) investigate the synchronisation levels of ASEAN5 with each partner country; 2) identify the best estimator; and 3) reveal the main determinants of synchronisation. The findings indicate that synchronisation varies across period and countries. ASEAN5 aligns most with the USA from 1998 to 2009, but with an increase synchronisation with CHN starting 2010. The CS-DL estimator emerges as the most effective estimator. Key determinants that affect synchronisation differ between short term and long-term scenarios: financial openness and urbanisation negatively impact ASEAN5-CHN and ASEAN5-USA respectively, while FDI inflow negatively impacts ASEAN5-JPN in the short term but positively in the long term. The insights are crucial for regional policy decision and planning.
  Keywords: globalisation; business cycle synchronisation; ASEAN5; financial openness; urbanisation; FDI inflows.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072735
   
  
• A study on voluntary turnover and organisational performance with training and education: focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises  
  by Hye-Sung Park, Young-Min Lee 
  Abstract: This study aimed to empirically examine the relationship between investment in vocational training, voluntary turnover rates, and organisational performance, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Using firm panel data, we tested the effect of the independent variable, training costs per employee, on the dependent variables of voluntary turnover rates and an indicator of organisational performance (revenue per employee) through a fixed-effects model. First, we found a statistically insignificant relationship between training costs per employee and the voluntary turnover rate. Second, we observed a statistically significant relationship between training costs per employee and revenue per employee. Additionally, in companies with fewer than 300 employees, a statistically significant effect on the voluntary turnover rate was noted, but no significant effect was found on revenue per employee.
  Keywords: vocational training; voluntary turnover rate; organisational performance; SMEs; small and medium-sized enterprises.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072787
   
  
• Geopolitical risks and financial markets: a 27-year bibliometric study of global financial trends  
  by Kshitij Kumar, Bateshwar Singh 
  Abstract: The present research conducts a thorough bibliometric examination of the correlation between geopolitical risks and financial markets between 1997 and 2024. The analysis is conducted using R studio and VOSViewer, with data sourced from Scopus and Web of Science (WoS) databases. The research output has a yearly growth rate of 19.58%, showing significant increase in scholarly interest in this topic. Resources Policy and Energy Economics have made significant contributions in understanding the interplay between geopolitical risk and market volatility. China and India emerged as leaders in the global research collaborations. Thematic evolution reflects a shift from early concerns about financial crises and stock market volatility to recent issues such as climate policy uncertainty and clean energy. Looking ahead, future research should explore new-age risks like cyber warfare and pandemics, with integrating machine learning techniques to enhance the predictive analyses of geopolitical risks on financial markets.
  Keywords: bibliometric analysis; geopolitical risk; financial markets; market volatility; RStudio; biblioshiny.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072800