International Journal of Trade and Global Markets (4 papers in press)

Regular Issues

• Spatiotemporal impact of trade policy variables on Asian manufacturing hubs: Bayesian global vector autoregression model  
  by Lutfu S. Sua, Haibo Wang, Jun Huang 
  Abstract: A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed to analyse relationships among economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing vector autoregression and Granger causality, we explore trade policy effects on emerging manufacturing hubs in China, India, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. A Bayesian global vector autoregression (BGVAR) model assesses the interaction of cross-unit and performs unconditional and conditional forecasts. Utilising time-series data, this study reveals multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationships among economy-wide variables. This innovative framework enhances investment decisions and policymaking through a data-driven approach, contributing to the development of a unique conceptual spatiotemporal framework for causality, co-integration, and dynamic connectedness. The results are consistent with existing economic theory. Currency devaluations lead to inflation which forces governments to slow down the economy amid its negative effect on employment. Similarly, fluctuating levels of imports/exports alter the flows of foreign currency enforcing policymakers to react to preserve the exchange rates around their real values.
  Keywords: cointegration; BGVAR; Bayesian global vector autoregression; manufacturing hub; time-series data; conditional and unconditional forecasts.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10070905
   
  
• Regulatory data protection for global economy of biopharmaceuticals: comparative legal analysis with focus on innovative biopharma in India  
  by B. Monisha, R. Valarmathi 
  Abstract: This provides a new global economy of biopharmaceuticals with an exclusive right over clinical data, meaning that no other person or persons may use them for a specified period. This study, therefore, offers a critical analysis of complementary protection granted to biopharmaceuticals by patents and regulatory data protection (RDP) globally with respect to innovation, competition, and access to medicines. This study probes the effectiveness and the challenge RDP is making using statistical analysis, financial modelling, and comparative analysis of the regulatory framework in Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Emergency Market Authorization (EMA). The justification for this combination is that RDP fosters innovation due to the protection of clinical trial investments, which provides a drive for the introduction of innovative biologics but does not inhibit the launch of biosimilars. With RDP, though they are very different in what they do, patents have created an enabling environment to make sustainable innovation in biopharmaceuticals accessible. International regulatory hurdles have to emerge so that a balance that advances both innovation and affordability becomes the norm within biopharma.
  Keywords: regulatory data protection; RDP; global economy of biopharmaceuticals; patent law; access to medicine; sustainable development goal; clinical trial investments.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10071412
   
  
• Effects of Ecuadors regional trade agreements: a partial equilibrium analysis  
  by Daniel Gómez Abella, Catherine Pereira Villa 
  Abstract: This study presents an empirical evaluation of Ecuadors regional trade agreements (RTAs) with Mexico, China, and the Pacific Alliance on trade, production, and welfare. The analysis utilises the global simulation model (GSIM) and incorporating estimated elasticities. The findings reveal that the bilateral RTAs with Mexico and China yield substantial trade creation effects, while the RTA with the Pacific Alliance displays heterogeneous impacts on trade among member countries. Notably, the RTA with China is anticipated to drive significant expansion in Ecuadors production capabilities, in stark contrast to the more modest growth projected under the RTAs with Mexico and the Pacific Alliance.
  Keywords: regional trade agreements; trade creation; trade diversion; partial equilibrium model; welfare effects; GSIM model; tariff liberalisation; bilateral trade; Ecuador.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10071563
   
  
• Trade-related international support measures withdrawn from Bangladesh: least developed country graduation perspective  
  by Roksana Khan 
  Abstract: After least developed country (LDC) graduation, Bangladesh will loss international support measures (ISMs), specially, DFQF, Rules of Origin, TRIPS transition and waiver and GSPs. In consequence, export and tariff might be affected severely. However, for Bangladesh an integrated policy approach is yet to be established to mitigate trade related ISMs only. Qualitative analysis specially, content analysis with the tools of stakeholder mapping, SWOT and causal relationship have been conducted. In addition, Risk Mitigation and Multi Criteria analysis have also been applied. Through analysis, best policy option derived as sustainable strategic plan for trade related ISMs loss which would be able to cover losses of preferential market access, S&DT provision of WTO and interconnecting issues of all trade related ISMs. The paper also added value with recommendation of establishing LDC Graduation Cell under the direct supervision of the Prime Ministers Office for implementation and coordination of the LDC graduation plan.
  Keywords: LDC graduation; trade related ISMs; mitigate adversity; international trade; policy option; strategic plan; policy tools; policy formulation; implementation plan; evaluation and monitoring; LDC cell.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10071711