International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics (47 papers in press)
Analysis of the Effect of Cruise Service Supply Chain Network Properties on Economic Profits
by Ling SUN, Wei Liu, Hanwen Zhang, Yan Jin, Gaoqiang Zhuo
Abstract: The cruise service supply chain (CSSC) is an integrated supply chain dominated by the cruise tourism service. It consists of a series of demand service providers, such as food, accommodation, transportation, travel, shopping, and entertainment. Based on social network theory, we outline the network properties of CSSCs. Using game theory models, we compute the profit distribution in a simplified version of the CSSC network. After studying different cooperation strategies among network members, we find that the overall network profit and profit distribution change with the network properties. When the network range and scale are fixed, the overall profit of the network increases with the relationship persistence, relationship strength, and cooperation between network members, while it decreases when there is top-down exploitation among network members. After evolving rules of the network structure, this paper This paper further refine the research based on the proposed growth path of CSSC, which is exactly from the centralized network to the distributed network and finally to the interconnection network. It is consistent with the decentralized trend of the block chain. Eventually this paper provides recommendations for the development mechanism of each CSSC network growth stage and for enhancing cooperation among network members.
Keywords: cruise service supply chain; profit distribution; network property; centrality; structural hole.
On the Application of Uncertain Three-player Two-stage Game to the Competition among Shipping Alliances
by Thi Minh Hoang Do, Gyei-Kark Park, Kyoung-Hoon Choi, Xiangfeng Yang
Abstract: The financial crisis in 2008 has had a negative impact across all economic sectors, especially the shipping industry. Consequences of which include low freight rate, decreasing demand, overcapacity, historical low profit and even bankruptcy. Most of the top container lines have formed strategic alliances in order to strengthen their market coverage to avoid collapse; however, the fierce competition among such powerful carrier groups and group members is becoming a major concern. The purpose of this paper is to examine the competition from a pricing perspective and capacity expansion among the recently established alliances namely 2M+H, The Alliance and Ocean Alliance. An uncertain competition game model is built using game theory and uncertainty theory and the Nash equilibrium prices and expansion decisions of the three players are found accordingly. The ideas from experts in the field were employed to measure the uncertain future container demand and real data were used to validate the game model. The results from the research suggest that the forecasted container growth rate in Transpacific trade route is 2.65% in the next five-year period. Such a modest demand growth rate, low vessel utilization, high idle ship expenses and high investment cost discourage all alliances from investing in new ships at the same time to prevent further financial loss. Therefore, it is recommended that the number of new ship orders should be reduced at this moment in time and alliances strategic actions should be made to rebalance the shipping industry.
Keywords: container lines; competition; strategic alliances; game theory; uncertainty theory; expansion decisions; three players.
Simulation of Truck Arrivals at Container Terminal Based on the Interactive Truck Appointment System
by Qianqian Shao, Mingxia Huang, Siqi Zhang, Yunfeng Zhang
Abstract: Truck appointment system (TAS) is used to regulate the number of trucks that can enter the terminal. However, because of the limited number of quotas, TAS is incompetent to fully meet all requirements of time window for individual truckers. In order to avoid the limitation of TAS, a simulation-based truck appointment mechanism named interactive appointment system (IAS) was proposed with the purpose of balancing truck arrival peak and reducing truck turnaround time. IAS allows the trucker to get the estimated truck turnaround time over his preferred arrival time interval when making an appointment application. This can assist him to choose a reasonable appointment arrival time. Moreover, a discrete event simulation model was formulated to estimate truck turnaround time, through describing the tri-stage queuing system (gate-parking lot-yard) of terminals, with considering the interference of block occupying brought by ship discharging/loading operations. Results of a series of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of IAS on alleviating congestion inside/outside terminal and decreasing truck turnaround time. In addition, how the parking quantity of parking lot influences the efficiency of terminal queuing system was also discussed in this study.
Keywords: container terminal; container logistics; truck appointment system; terminal parking lot; terminal congestion; truck arrival time; truck arrival peak; simulation modelling; queuing model; turnaround time.
Container barge (un)reliability in seaports: A company case study at the port of Antwerp
by Virzhiniia Oganesian, Christa Sys, Thierry Vanelslander, Edwin Van Hassel
Abstract: Inland waterways and ports play an important role in the entire transport system in the Hamburg Le Havre range, and for the seaports of Antwerp and Rotterdam in particular. The high proportion of inland navigation for both ports can be explained by reasons such as an extensive network along with a safe, reliable, sustainable and cost efficient transport. However, despite all these advantages, container barge transportation still faces certain challenges.
A major challenge relates to the unreliability of barge handling in large seaports, affecting overall performance of barge services essentially. This research shows that barge congestion exists, and it examines the causes of the observed phenomena. Next, it also provides an overview of solutions that are being developed in the port of Antwerp to improve and optimize container barge handling. Last, a case study is developed for a company that is located in the near proximity of the port of Antwerp, where the impact of barge handling unreliability is analysed.
Keywords: hinterland transport; inland navigation; inland port; container barge handling; supply chain.
Time Series Forecasting of Domestic Shipping Market: Comparison of Sarimax, Ann-Based Models and Sarimax_Ann Hybrid Model
by Cemile Solak Fiskin, Ozgu Turgut, Sjur Westgaard, A. Güldem Cerit
Abstract: Seaborne transport forecasting has attracted substantial interest over the years because of providing a useful policy tool for decision-makers. Although various forecasting methods have been widely studied, there is still broad debate on accurate forecasting models and preprocessing. The current paper aims to point out these issues, as well as to establish the forecasting model of the domestic cargo volumes using SARIMAX, MLP, LSTM and NARX and SARIMAX-ANN hybrid models. Based on the domestic cargo volumes of Turkey, findings suggest that SARIMA-MLP models can be considered as an appropriate alternative, at least for time series forecasting of shipping. Pre-processed data provides a significant improvement over those obtained with unpreprocessed data, with the accuracy of the models found to be significantly boosted with the Fourier term of decomposition. The results indicate that SARIMAX-MLP, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.81, outperforms the closest models of SARIMAX, with a MAPE of 6.14 and LSTM with Fourier decomposition with a MAPE of 6.52. Findings have implications for shipping policymakers to plan infrastructure development, and useful for shipowners in accurately formulating shipping demand.
Keywords: time series forecasting; shipping; artificial neural network; ARIMA; machine learning; hybrid model.
Nash Bargaining of Transportation Rates with Flow Imbalances
by Marcos Singer, Ignacio Pardo, Ricardo Sánchez
Abstract: Consider two points, A and B, which trade products with a flow imbalance. We postulate that shippers at A face an implicit negotiation with the shippers at B regarding who must bear the cost of a vehicle traveling back and forth. Following the Nash bargaining model, we deduce that the ratio (freight rate A-to-B) / (freight rate B-to-A) changes linearly with the ratio (flow B-to-A) / (flow A-to-B). We validate our model with evidence from previous publications and with quarterly data from the Transatlantic, Transpacific and Europe-Asia maritime routes from 2003 to 2012.
Keywords: Transportation rates; Flow imbalances; Nash bargaining; Maritime routes; Backhaul problem.
Firms Operational and Logistics Characteristics and Realisation of Business Analytics Benefits: Evidence from Stock Markets
by L. M. Daphne Yiu, Andy C. L. Yeung, Hugo K. S. Lam, T. C. E. Cheng
Abstract: The idea of big data provides practitioners in the logistics industry with valuable opportunities to improve their operational efficiency and economic performance. In fact, business analytics techniques are increasingly being used in international logistics, shipping, and supply chain management. We examine the impact of business intelligence (BI) system adoption on firms market value and the influences of the operating characteristics and contexts of firms. Specifically, we examine whether the impacts of BI adoption is contingent on industry competitiveness, firms operating cycle, and industry munificence. Using the event study methodology, we analyse 272 manufacturing firms in the United States that adopted BI systems from 2005 to 2014. We find that BI adoption does not have an immediate impact on firms stock returns, but such impact is significantly enhanced for firms in highly competitive industries, and those with short operating cycles and high industry munificence, i.e., high-growth industries, suggesting that firms in fast-changing dynamic environments find BI systems much more useful.
Keywords: business intelligence systems; stock returns; industry competitiveness; operating cycle; industry munificence.
DESIGN FOR SUSTAINABLE SHIP DISMANTLING BASED ON TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE PERSPECTIVE
by Yucel Ozturkoglu, Yigit Kazancoglu, Yesim Deniz Ozkan Ozen
Abstract: While ship dismantling is an important economic sector, especially for developing countries, it has severe impacts on human health and the environment. Therefore, it is essential to adopt sustainable approaches to ship dismantling. Considering the entire life cycle of ships, the sustainability of dismantling activities can be affected by the initial ship design phase. This study therefore investigates the relationship between ship design criteria and triple bottom line sustainability dimensions: human, environment and business. A multi-criteria decision-making method, fuzzy TISM, is used to determine the distinct causal relationships between design criteria and effects on humans, the environment and business. This contributes to the literature regarding designing for sustainable ship dismantling. The study recommendations to management, covering the training of designers, work design, material selection, life cycle assessment, standardization of parts and modular design, top management support and governmental support for design for sustainable ship dismantling practices.
Keywords: Ship Dismantling; Ship Design; Sustainability; Triple Bottom Line.
A Probabilistic Safety Assessment Framework for Arctic Marine Traffic Using the Evidential Reasoning Approach
by Shuaiyu Yao, Hao Hu, Jian-Bo Yang
Abstract: The global warming has made Arctic marine traffic possible, but the harsh navigation environment threatens its safety and restrains its development. It is necessary to evaluate the safety of Arctic marine traffic environment. The evidential reasoning approach is used to establish a new hierarchical model for the safety evaluation due to its advantages such as being able to deal with uncertainty caused by ignorance or lack of knowledge. The model is based on objective environmental data of safety gathered from the Arctic voyage of a general cargo vessel Tian You and subjective judgements collected from domain experts. The safety evaluation results show that the locations in East Siberian and Laptev Sea have a generally safer environment for marine traffic than the one in Kara Sea. The proposed model validated by sensitivity analysis provides an informative and rigorous basis for decision making of Arctic marine traffic.
Keywords: Safety evaluation; Arctic marine traffic; Expert judgements; Evidential reasoning approach; Multiple criteria decision making.
Determinants of Outsourcing Performance in Container Terminal Operations: A Moderated Mediation Model
by Szu-Yu Kuo, Chin-Shan Lu
Abstract: This study empirically examines the determinants of the performance of outsourcing from a container terminal practitioners perspective. We attempted to examine the linkages between firms outsourcing management capabilities, outsourcing providers basic and specific capabilities, communication quality, partnership quality, and outsourcing performance. Data collection is from 145 practitioners in container terminal operators at Port of Kaohsiung in Taiwan. A moderated mediation model was developed for data analysis. The research findings showed that firms outsourcing management capability positively influenced outsourcing providers basic and specific outsourcing capability, and that outsourcing providers basic and specific outsourcing capability positively influenced outsourcing performance. Specifically, the results indicate that communication quality and partnership quality had moderating effects on the relationships between outsourcing providers basic and specific outsourcing capability, and outsourcing performance. Theoretical and managerial implications from the research findings on outsourcing management for container terminal operators are discussed.
Keywords: Container terminal; capability; communication quality; partnership quality; outsourcing performance.
An assessment model of investment environment in Free Trade Port Zone An empirical study on Kaohsiung port
by Show-Hui Huang, Wen-Kai Hsu
Abstract: This paper proposes an assessment model of investment environment in Free Trade Port Zone (FTPZ). Based on the features of FTZPs and relevant literature, the assessment factors (AFs) of investment environment are first investigated. An assessment model based on an improved Analytic Network Process (IANP) approach is then proposed to evaluate the investment environment in FTPZ from foreign manufacturers perspectives. Finally, to validate the assessment model, the foreign manufacturers around FTPZ of Kaohsiung port (KP-FTPZ) in Taiwan were empirically investigated, by which some managerial implications and suggestions were proposed. The results could provide practical information for FTPZ managers to improve their FTPZs investment environments. Further, the proposed IANP approach could also provide theoretical references for methodological research in MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making).
Keywords: Free Trade Port Zone; FDI; ANP; MCDM.
Multi-product Distribution in Multi-supplier Combined and Capacitated Transport Networks
by Mojahid Saeed Osman
Abstract: The paper tackles the problem of capacitated transport vehicle routing for the combined distribution of multiple products for multiple suppliers. This real-life urban distribution-planning problem requires a solution that identifies a set of routes for carrying out the combined distribution in extensive multi-supplier distribution networks. The paper describes the development of a novel 0-1 model for modeling the routing problem to aid in the optimum routes for the combined distribution with the objective of minimizing the total distance traveled that significantly affects the transportation cost while satisfying demand and capacity constraints. For conducting a comparative analysis, the paper deploys a solution procedure that quickly leads to a good routing solution. The paper introduces a case study as an application scenario with three case-problems for illustrating the suitability and applicability of the proposed approach. The results are not surprising; the novel 0-1 model provides optimal solutions and outperforms the solution procedure.
Keywords: Routing; Multi-product; Multi-supplier; Combined Distribution; Transport Networks.
The Dynamics of Ports Hinterland Formation : A Probabilistic Cellular Automaton Approach
by Mabel Leva, Rodrigo Garrido, Alejandro Leon, Angel Ibeas
Abstract: This article presents a new methodology to determine the hinterland of a port as the aggregation of port choices made by interactive exporters. The main assumption is that exporters and ports interact in space and time between themselves, generating a complex system. Hinterland emerges as the aggregation of zones from which interacting agents send their shipments. This methodology builds upon the theory of cellular automata (CA), incorporating probabilistic components to allow for a rational representation of spatio-temporal exporters decisions. The CA\'s transition function includes neighbourhood interaction, network effects and ports attributes. The model\'s parameters are calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This methodology allows the estimation of ports demand capture as a time-dependent variable after a change in the ports level of service. This framework was applied to the automobile exports in Brazil, from 1997 to 2015, with a 73% of prediction success.
Keywords: Probabilistic Cellular Automaton; Port Choice Modelling; Hinterland; Freight Demand; Auto-mobile Exports.
A model with an efficient tabu search for the cash pickup and delivery problem
by Guoxun Xu, Yanfeng Li
Abstract: The cash transportation cost in the banking system, which is one of the most important components of the currency issuance cost, could be reduced by the optimization of the cash transportation process. In this study, we propose a cash pickup and delivery problem to deal with the distribution of new banknotes, the collection of used banknotes, and the disposal of damaged banknotes in the banking system. The proposed problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model to minimize the total transportation cost and the total penalty cost due to unmet target demand. An efficient tabu search heuristic is developed to solve the proposed problem. Numerical results illustrate the efficiency of the proposed solution method and demonstrate the effect of the risk threshold on the combination of cash denominations.
Keywords: cash transportation; pickup and delivery; mixed-integer linear programming; tabu search.
Attraction and subsidy analysis of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road: A hub line location approach
by Jianfeng Zheng, Lili Hou, Rui Mei
Abstract: As a sea route corridor, the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (TCMSR) has a potential impact on container routing between Asia and Europe. In this paper, all considered ports along this corridor are assumed to be hub ports, hence the TCMSR can be regarded as a hub line, similar to main line services in liner shipping. When transporting containers along the TCMSR, this paper considers the subsidy policy, represented by a subsidy factor. In order to explore the attraction and subsidy analysis of the TCMSR, a bilevel programming model is proposed. The upper level model aims to determine the optimal subsidy factor along the TCMSR, and the lower level model is formulated as a hub line location problem. By enumerating all different values of the subsidy factor, the bilevel programming model is reduced to the lower level model, which investigates the location of a new hub line and makes a comparison between the new hub line and the TCMSR. Computational experiments show that, the attraction of the TCMSR mainly depends on the subsidy policies to be implemented along the TCMSR. Moreover, the impact of different OD demand scenarios on hub arc utilization along the TCMSR is not significant.
Keywords: Liner shipping; Hub line location; TCMSR; Subsidy.
A novel risk assessment approach for strait/canal security evaluation along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road
by Meizhi Jiang, Jing Lu
Abstract: The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) designed by China is of great importance to maritime transportation, economic development, and environmental protection. However, the straits/canals along the MSR have been struggling with pirate attacks, terrorism, and accidents which pose challenges for the security of MSR. There is a strong need for further investigation in strait/canal security evaluation. However, the traditional risk modelling approach used in risk assessment indicates challenges due to its incapability of dealing with incomplete data, uncertainties, and subjective judgment. Thus, we propose a novel strait/canal security assessment framework to evaluate the security of the strait/canal along the MSR on the basis of a Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning approach. The subjective risk analysis information collection and processing process from multiple experts can be embedded in the framework in a systematic way to provide maritime stakeholders to evaluate maritime security along the MSR.
Keywords: maritime security; risk assessment; Maritime Silk Road (MSR); fuzzy evidential reasoning; quantitative analysis.
A hybrid evaluation approach using fuzzy TOPSIS and MSGP for catering food reverse logistics provider selection in airline industry
by Yan-Kai Fu, Chin-Nung Liao
Abstract: Reverse logistics provider selection is an important issue in catering food for airline industry. In previous research, the catering food industry generally lacked a formal reference method for reverse logistics providers selection in catering products. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach, combining technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and multi-segment goal programming (MSGP) model to select reverse logistics provider. In addition, this method will guide decision makers (DMs) to evaluate reverse logistics provider by taking into account the tangible and intangible resource under catering company logistics strategic. The advantage of this approach is its consideration of both qualitative and quantitative criteria which allows DMs to set multiple segment aspiration levels for reverse logistics provider selection. A case study of application is also presented by using a catering food manufacturer.
Keywords: Techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS); Multi-segment goal programming (MSGP); Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); Fuzzy set theory; Triangular fuzzy number; Reverse logistics provider; Catering food.
Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Memetic algorithm for a stochastic Multi-trip inventory routing problem.
by Saâdia KHOUKHI, Othmane EL YAAKOUBI, Chakib Bojji, Yahya Bensouda
Abstract: The present paper introduced, modeled, and solved a real-life logistics problem arising in the hospital complex of Rabat (Morocco). To manage efficiently the distribution process, hospital managers propose to adopt a vendor managed inventory system that involves the establishment of a central pharmacy, which will control the inventories of hospitals. The central pharmacy will also be responsible for delivering full roll containers of medicines to hospitals and the collection of empty ones for reuse in the next period. All deliveries and returns are performed simultaneously by a homogeneous fleet of vehicles that may perform several trips per period. Each hospital defines a time window wherein the service can begin. This problem is known in the literature as the multi-trip inventory routing problem with time windows and simultaneous pickup and delivery. Given the complexity of the problem, we propose a combined simulation-heuristic problem, which combines Monte Carlo simulation and Memetic algorithm. The performance and effectiveness of the proposed approach are clarified by computational experiments.
Keywords: Inventory routing problem; stochastic demand; Multi-trip; Simultaneous pick-up and delivery.
Time-Dependent Location-Routing Problem for Hazmat Transportation with Stop en Route: A Case Study for Fossil Fuels Distribution
by Mohammad Javad Jafari, Saduollah Ebrahimnejad, Misagh Rahbari, Arash Mohamadi
Abstract: Increased Hazmat transportation and its undesirable effects have caused that governments and researchers have a special focus on this problem. Therefore, various aspects of this field have been studied, that most of them have tried to reduce the total risk, travel time and costs. In this study, we assume stops in the intermediate nodes are allowed because stops en route as a short break may reduce the risk of the trip and deduct the probability of an accident. The proposed model mainly selects the best facility to assign to customer, finds the optimal route to serve the customers, and determines schedule for arrival time and departure time from nodes. Given that the proposed model is NP-hard, a NSGA II is used to solve it. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, a real case of fossil fuels distribution in IRAN is implemented. The computational results show that the proposed algorithm is an efficient algorithm to achieve near-optimal solutions for the medium and large-scale problems. Finally, it is concluded that the value of risk is less, when considering risk objective function in proposed model, than the condition in which risk as the objective function is not considered in model.
Keywords: Location Problem; Vehicle Routing Problem; Hazmat Transportation; Risk Assessment; Time-Dependent; NSGA II.
An Approximate Dynamic Programming Algorithm for Multi-period Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem under Uncertain Market
by Tingsong Wang, Xuecheng Tian
Abstract: This paper studies the maritime fleet renewal problem under an uncertain market, including various uncertain factors such as ship prices, shipping demand, and freight rates. A dynamic programming model for this problem is proposed. However, the traditional methods to solve the dynamic programming model may encounter the challenge of curses of dimensionality due to their backward iterations used in these methods, which makes them cumbersome to be applied in practice. Therefore, an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm is employed to solve the proposed model in this paper. Finally, a case study is implemented to evaluate the applicability and performance of the ADP algorithm and analyze the impact of the uncertain market on fleet renewal. The fleet renewal plan obtained from our proposed methodology is more robust and adaptable to the uncertain market than that obtained from the deterministic model in which the various uncertain parameters are replaced by their predicted values.
Keywords: maritime fleet renewal; dynamic programming; approximate dynamic programming algorithm; uncertainty.
Corporate social responsibility as sustainability management: International shipping firms and financial performance
by Ann Shawing Yang, Suphathus Mekrangsiman
Abstract: Sustainability shipping management is analyzed via the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities and financial performance. Panel data analysis with mixed-effect models is applied for the study period from 2008 to 2016. Container shipping shows significant positive influences of environmental and social activities on asset utilization efficiency and improvements of current financial performance compared with only environmental activities. Moreover, dry bulk and tanker firms show significant positive influences from social activities on improving the expected financial performance. East Asia-Pacific shipping firms show significant influence from environmental activities on improving financial performance, while their counterparts derive from environment and social activities to improve asset utilization efficiency and current financial performance. Despite the insignificant influence from CSR activities on expected financial performance, social activities exert significant negative influence on American, European, and South African shipping firms. Investors evaluate asset utilization efficiency and current financial values via returns on assets and returns on equity in CSR engagement for shipping firms.
Keywords: Corporate social responsibility; CSR; sustainability management; environmental performance; social performance; financial performance; return on equity; Tobin’s Q; shipping firms; container shipping; dry bulk shipping; tanker shipping; panel data regression; fixed-effect model; random-effect model.
An empirical analysis of structural breaks in world dry bulk shipping market
by Lei DAI, Danyue Jing, Hao Hu, Yifan Shi, Seungwon Lee
Abstract: Dry bulk shipping is an important element of international trade. However, as dry bulk shipping market is always influenced by unanticipated economic, financial or political events, structural breaks exist in vessel price volatility, while the price volatility characteristics under structural breaks have not been well identified. This paper aims to investigate the vessel price volatility under structural breaks caused by external events. The modified ICSS algorithm is applied to detect the structural break points and GARCH model incorporating structural breaks is used to examine the volatility of newbuilding and secondhand vessel prices of four dry bulk vessel types using monthly data from January, 2002 to November, 2012. Results show that the price volatility persistence effect and clustering effect decrease when structural breaks in variance are accounted. The findings may contribute to the literature in vessel price volatility modeling under structural breaks and may be helpful for practitioners.
Keywords: Dry bulk; Shipping; Volatility; Structural breaks; GARCH.
Unit Load Device Reassignment Following Temporary Airport Closures
by Chun-Ying Chen, Paul Schonfeld
Abstract: In this study, a reassignment model is developed for helping airline planners in reassigning unit load devices (ULDs), which include containers and pallets, to flights after temporary airport closures. The objective of the model is to minimize the system cost, which includes total delay time and the total penalty for leftover ULDs. To test the models efficiency and applicability, several problem instances of different scales are randomly generated based upon data from an airline in Taiwan. The sensitivity of results is analyzed. The results show that as weight capacity increases, more ULDs can be assigned, and average ULD delays increase. The approved ULDs quantity per flight increases, while the number of un-assigned ULD and average ULD delay time may decrease. Also, as the ULD weight increases, fewer ULDs can be assigned, and average ULD delay time may increase. The results show the usefulness of the proposed model for actual operations.
Keywords: Containers; Air cargo; Air freight reassignment; Service recovery; ULD reassignment; Airport closure; Mathematical programming.
Simulation and optimization for intermodal freight transport system with seaport and railway terminals
by Bing Li, Changyu Hu, Hua Xuan
Abstract: With the growth of economic globalization, intermodal transportation mode has received considerable attentions in recent years. For global trade, intermodal transportation can provide a more flexible service, as well as more reliable, profitable and sustainable transport instead of single-modal long-haul transportation. The study described in this paper attempts to develop a simulation platform for evaluating and optimizing the sea-railway intermodal freight transport system (SRIFTS) on the basis of economic considerations. Rail-sea combination is more attractive due to strictly schedule-based operation, low carbon emission, undertaking bulk commodity and main-line transport task. The operation process of SRIFTS is thoroughly analyzed from three aspects of wagon receiving-departure subsystem, vessel-to-wagon loading subsystem and wagon-to-vessel loading subsystem. And then the total operation costs of SRIFTS and utilization ratio of shunting locomotive as the optimization objective are proposed. To achieve this objective, the simulation platforms encompassing the two typically layout modes of SRIFTS are developed by Arena software and the hierarchical structure of this simulation module is respectively outlined in the simulation platform. The simulation-based optimization framework is built with the influence factors as the input parameters, input factors, output factors, and statistical measures. Finally, the simulation platform is carried out by concrete examples, which proves the rationality of the methodology in applying the output from the simulation program results to assessing the impacts produced by the adoption of different policies and enhancing the performances of the SRIFTS.
Keywords: intermodal transport; railway terminal; seaport terminal; placing-in wagon; taking-out wagons; simulation platform; shunting optimization.
Two Levels Model for Optimal Freight Transport Integration between Intra and Inter Islands in Indonesia as an Archipelago Country
by Kuncoro Harto Widodo, Yandra Rahadian Perdana, Joewono Soemardjito, Hendra Edi Gunawan, Iwan Puja Riyadi, Dwi Ardhianta Kurniawan
Abstract: Indonesia, as an archipelago country, needs to ensure the optimal flow of commodities or goods and the containers intra-islands and inter-islands as well, since each island usually has different potential commodities. For this we propose two levels model of freight transport. The first level is a commodity growth model which is used to describe intra-island flow of commodities based on its forecasting, and the second level is a generation-attraction of port-to-port model which is implemented to show the inter-islands flow of commodities. In order to illustrate the interaction of the models we selected Port of Tanjung Perak as one of the main ports in Indonesia. The result of the research showed the increasing trend of the next ten years estimation of the volume of selected commodities, the number of containers loaded and unloaded at the Port of Tanjung Perak, and the movement pattern of the commodities from port to port.
Keywords: Archipelago; freight transport; Port of Tanjung Perak; intra-island; inter-island.
Complex Network Evolution of the Key Coastal Ports in China Under the Belt and Road Initiative
by Xu Xu, Yanbin Yang, Yi Liu
Abstract: In order to promote the construction of The Belt and Road Initiative, we construct the complex network evolution model based on the complex network theory and node attractiveness. We select the relevant 2017 data of 18 coastal ports mentioned in the Belt and Road Initiative, and verify the validity of the model by comparing the network eigenvalues between evolving network and real network. The results show that the average distances between ports are short, clustering coefficient and dependence of hub ports are high, its topological structure has scale-free network characteristics and fits the power law distribution. Meanwhile, we study the change of network characteristics of the evolutionary network and real network under deliberate attack and random attack. The statistics show that the robustness is weak under deliberate attack but strong under random attack. These are great reference to the construction and development of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative.
Keywords: Complex network; Node attractiveness; Network evolution; Robustness; The Belt and Road Initiative.
A FEASIBILITY MODEL FOR DETERMINING THE NUMBER OF INSERTED ADDITIONAL FREIGHT TRAIN IN EXISTING SINGLE-TRACK TRAIN SCHEDULE
by Ahmad Rudiansyah, Arrifah Ratna Sari, Kurnia Iswardani
Abstract: Delivery of goods by rail ways mode more frequently in the nightshift. While demand for goods delivery service are increase and the capacity in afternoon shift is more available. This research will conduct a heuristic technique using mathematical model Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). The objective is to maximize the number of freight train that can be added in single-track train schedule with overtaking strategy. Overtaking strategy is a strategy that requiring a slow train to stop at a nearby station while waiting for a high-speed train to pass through. But, the model is not allowed to break the minimum safety distance between two consecutive trains, called minimum headway. The concept of train adding use the concept of train slot that insert a freight trains between fixed passenger train. The results showed that the minimum headway affect on the number of additional freight trains. The optimum minimum headway is 6 minutes, this value is appropriate with the minimum headway that has been determined by the transportation ministry. With this minimum headway, the freight train that can be added was 20 trains with details of 15 trains arriving at the destination station on time and the other 5 trains will occur delay which not exceeding 3 hours. The increasing in the carrying capacity is 1200 TEUs / day. When compared with the initial capacity, it means the addition of transport capacity can be reach up to 28.57%.
Keywords: train-slot; space-time graph; minimum headway; overtaking strategy.
A bi-objective approach to minimise cost and CO2 emissions in intermodal freight transport for biomass energy
by Rizwan Shoukat
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the bi-objective problem of minimising cost and CO2 emissions in the supply of biofuels for producing cheaper biomass energy in Pakistan. Our research studied the problem by taking Wheat Straw (WS) & Brassica Campestris (BC) as biofuels for a biomass plant. The bi-objective problem has been formulated with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. The data is obtained from one of the largest paper & board (P&B) industries in Pakistan. We solved our problem by applying a genetic algorithm (GA). Our results show a 50.4% saving by switching from road to road-rail transport to meet the demand of 1000 tons of biofuels per day, as well as a 66.35% reduction in CO2 emissions. Pareto optimal solutions generated by the genetic algorithm facilitate decision-makers by trading off cost & CO2 emissions. Moreover, this study can be extended by investigating the effects of biomass energy on the price of the product and markets.
Keywords: biofuels; biomass plant; genetic algorithm; cost; intermodal; CO2 emissions; paper & board.
Analysing Exhaust Emission of Oil Tanker Vessels Using Big Data in the Port of Singapore
by Zengqi Xiao, Jasmine Siu Lee Lam
Abstract: Exhaust emissions from ships negatively affect air quality, climate and human health. Emissions from tankers are often neglected while no existing study focuses on emissions from bunkering vessels within a port limit. This paper firstly utilises Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and establishes an emission accounting model to estimate the amount of exhaust emissions from oil tankers in the Port of Singapore, and secondly focuses on emissions from bunkering vessels as a major ship emission segment to draw policy implications and recommendations for maritime and port cities. Big data analytics and the bottom-up method are used to develop the model. To have a comprehensive study, all major types of pollutants and greenhouse gases are analysed, which include carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, nitrous oxide, methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, and particulate matters. Findings show that boilers and tankers at berth generate the most emission. In terms of vessel type, despite being the smallest in fleet size, bunkering tankers generate the most emission. Policies to motivate the adoption of cleaner fuels by bunkering vessels are recommended.
Keywords: Exhaust emission; Ship emission; Greenhouse gases; Big data; Automatic Identification System; Port; Oil tanker; Bunkering tanker.
The Covid-19 impacts on air transport - a case study of Hong Kong
by W.M. To, Peter K.C. Lee
Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic has hit the transport industry across the world since February 2020. Using data from the Hong Kong International Airport, we obtained seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for passenger movements and air cargo for the period 2005-2019. The Covid-19 impacts on passenger movements and air cargo were estimated based on differences between the predicted and actual monthly values in 2020. We found that the total number of passenger movements dropped by 86.2% while the total volume of air cargo dropped by 6% in 2020. Additionally, the GHG emission due to the use of aviation kerosene was 10.5 Mt of CO2-eq in 2020; down from 20.8 Mt of CO2-eq in 2019 (i.e. a drop of 49.5%). We also found the significant improvement of visibility at the airport - a rare upside of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to high unemployment rate in the transport and tourism-related sectors and has a negative economic impact on the aviation sector.
Keywords: Covid-19; air transport; passenger movements; air cargo; Hong Kong.
Special Issue on: Environmental and Social Issues in Modern Transportation Systems
Asset shortages and economic operating system based on two-stage least-squares regression
by Yang Yang, Shuwen Liu
Abstract: The rapid development of information technology and e-business has promoted financial development but has not addressed chronic asset shortages. Asset shortages are an important factor that affects enterprise operating systems and consequently influences economic growth. Using China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2014 as sample, we use the overlapping generations model, fixed effect model, two-stage least-squares regression, and quantile regression model to explore the impact of asset shortages on economic growth. Empirical results show that asset shortages have been a perennial problem in China's provinces, thus having a significantly positive correlation with economic growth. In addition, the moderating effect of asset shortages positively influences the relationship between financial development and economic growth. These findings bear the practical implication that the government should develop information technology to increase the effective supply of sound assets.
Keywords: asset shortages; financial development; economic growth; two-stage least-squares regression.
Design of reverse logistics system for B2C e-commerce based on management logic of internet of things
by Li Wei, Zhiqiang Ma, Ningning Liu
Abstract: In recent years, the B2C e-commerce industry has developed at a surprising high speed in China, but the return rate of e-commerce is also increasing at the same speed, which makes the demand of reverse logistics of B2C e-commerce difficult to meet under the traditional logistics mode. To solve this problem, based on the logic of internet of things management, this paper designs and constructs the collaboration system and information interaction system of reverse logistics in B2C e-commerce, builds the basic framework of reverse logistics system in B2C e-commerce, and discusses the possible system bugs. The reverse logistics system designed in this paper will be more suitable for the local government-led business cooperation platform organisations. It can create a regional B2C e-commerce reverse logistics consortium for local governments, and even play a positive role in promoting the rapid development of the entire B2C e-commerce industry.
Keywords: B2C e-commerce; reverse logistics system framework; internet of things; collaborative system design; information interaction system design.
Research on the improvement of rural old-age security system in the new era sustainable smart city transportation
by Chenghua Wang, Senthil Murugan Nagarajan, Prathik Anandhan
Abstract: Western digital considers intelligent mobility needs in the present era, so that a harmonious balance is achieved by taking into the consideration of sustainable society, individuals and products which are transported smoothly. The notation of intelligent mobility is aimed at achieving a smooth and sustainable society using the fuzzy linear programming model (FLPM) for notifying communication between carriers fuzzy (NCBCF) and optimisation inter-company in fuzzy (OICF), with a five-layer mobile structure. Finally, this system is used mainly on demand control, supply control, which contributes to the innovation in private and public transportation structure using enhance fuzzy optimisation parametric concept. Further, it supplies the management of urban infrastructure, platform controls, information and the application of transportation for sustainable smart city transportation in an effective and efficient manner.
Keywords: transport facilities fuzzy; sustainable smart city transportation; carriers fuzzy; fuzzy linear programming.
Impact of accessibility of land transportation networks on regional economic resilience: an empirical study of China
by Tao Lyu, Daoqin Tong
Abstract: Regional economic resilience (RER) represents an important topic in regional science. So far, rare studies have incorporated accessibility of transportation networks in examining RER. This study analysed RER and transportation accessibility from a spatial perspective. Based on an empirical study of China's RER, this study shows that while the land transportation has strong positive direct spatial effects on RER, the potential competition among neighbouring prefectures has resulted in varying indirect effects, leading to mixed total effects. Comparing with road transportation, rail transportation is found to have similar direct effects but more significant indirect effects, contributing significantly to medium and long-distance economic activities. The comparison among three geographical regions suggests that RER is also associated with natural conditions and historical development. Policy implications on regional development planning are also discussed.
Keywords: regional economic resilience; RER; spatial impact; transportation networks; China.
Workforce optimisation for improving customer experience in urban transportation using heuristic mathematical model
by Jie Chen, Wei Shi, Xi Wang, Sanjeevi Pandian, V.E. Sathishkumar
Abstract: Workforce optimisation has always been a challenge both in conventional industries, including logistics, and in the majority of emerging shared economy systems. In a rapidly changing service environment, customer experiences are important and are influenced by the quality of service provided. This paper proposes a shift workforce allocation, using the heuristic mathematical model (SWA-HMM) for workforce optimisation to enhance the customer experience in urban transportation. Furthermore, urban city mobility is a key differentiator for competitiveness which continues to move to have a more dynamic economy and draw greater domestic investment. Subsequently, workforce optimisation for urban transportation using deep learning as an essential artificial intelligence branch provides knowledge for a computer system to identify, predict, and make decisions by analysing the data relevant to the application deployed. The experimental result shows that there is an overall positive customer experience and enhancement of the performance of urban mobility with better service quality.
Keywords: workforce optimisation; customer experience; urban transportation; artificial intelligence; heuristic mathematical model; maximum passenger flow volume.
Improved hybrid fuzzy logic system for evaluating sustainable transportation systems in smart cities
by Chenghua Wang, Oscar Sanjuán Martínez, Rubén González Crespo
Abstract: Modern times are required for smart cities to have sustainable transport systems. In several years the number of transport operations has increased considerably and the development is expected to increase in the years to follow. This links environmental costs directly to reduce the quality of life in urban cities like air pollution, noise, etc. Municipal governments invest in clean, safe, efficient and economic sustainable transport networks to address this problem. The problem facing decision makers in transportation is how these sustainable transport systems can be defined and selected. We introduce an improved hybrid fuzzy logic system (IHFLS) for the generation of aggregate values for the sustainable evaluation of hybrid fuzzy logic. There are three phases in the suggested solution. In step 1, we define the sustainability evaluation criteria for transport. In step 2, experts provide language ratings against selected criteria for potential alternatives. Lastly, IHFLS generates aggregate results for the evaluation of sustainability and the choice of best alternatives.
Keywords: fuzzy logic system; sustainable transport networks; improved hybrid fuzzy logic system; IHFLS.
Special Issue on: ICALT 2019 Advances in Transportation and Logistics
Evaluation of the tram intelligent system management by an analysis of its key performance indicators for an optimal mixed traffic control in Algeria
by Mouloud KHELF, Salim Boukebbab, Neila Bhouri
Abstract: Evaluating the tram intelligent system management by analyzing its keys performance indicators is the main target of this paper. A deep analysis of its theoretical and real performance is done, to evaluate the trams regularity and the actual timetable. The second important objective is to show how the trams performance can influence the traffic control system. To optimize it, an optimal cycle time applying the Webster method is combined with the optimal tram timetable at the same time. The results indicate that the tram is unwell operated, the offered capacity is higher than the real demand, besides, the theoretical tram performance that is not respected. Therefore, the traffic jam has increased in common intersections. The suggested solutions, prove the possibility to reduce the traffic congestion yet well refining the management of the mixed traffic systems, simultaneously, without using extra infrastructures or technologies. All this exhibits the value of this paper.
Keywords: tram intelligent system; key performance indicators; traffic control; timetable; intersections; traffic congestion.
Optimization models and information sharing in a multi-echelon pharmaceutical supply chain
by Mouna ELARBI, Malek MASMOUDI, Omar AYADI, Faouzi MASMOUDI
Abstract: This paper deals with the pharmaceutical supply chain management. We consider the case of the multi-echelon Tunisian pharmaceutical supply chain that is composed of one central pharmacy, multi-regional pharmacies, and multi-hospitals. We provide two mathematical models to reduce the whole supply chain cost, in particular the cost of shortage that highly affects the quality of service in the healthcare sector. In the first mathematical model, we optimize the current Tunisian pharmaceutical supply chain with information sharing only between the central pharmacy and the regional pharmacies, and in the second model, we consider an extension of the information sharing to cover all the supply chain members. Numerical results show the impact of the information sharing in cost saving by more than 14% on average.
Keywords: supply chain; multi-echelon; mathematical model; optimization; inventory management cost; information sharing; collaboration; pharmaceutical; drug.
Risk models-based on Uncertainty Quantification for illicit traffic time series in customs context
by Lamia HAMMADI, Eduardo Souza De Cursi, Vlad Stefan Barbu, Abdellah Ait Ouahman
Abstract: Due to the increase of the worldwide trade, the flow of goods crossing borders is increasing; at the same time, the threats faced by society such as illicit traffic of drugs, weapons, and contraband are growing. In this situation, customs authorities are encountered many challenges and are looking for new solutions and tools of decision making for countering (detecting, preventing, investigating and mitigating) such risks. The present work develops a model-based on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to describe and analyse the behaviour of the time series describing the risks in customs over time and space. We start by introducing the Hilbertian approach related to representation of Random Variables and addressing these approximations and their applications in UQ. Then we discuss an extension where these models are applied to the time series to handle the seasonal components of risks in customs context. The model is fitted to time series describing the seized quantities of the illicit traffic on five sites using Moment Matching Method. It is shown that the fitted models not only are interpretable and provide a good description of important properties of the data such as the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) and second-order structure, but also can help in making decisions on risk analysis and assessment in cases of threats in global supply chain.
Keywords: Uncertainty quantification; Hilbert expansion; Risk time series; Moment Matching Method; Customs.
A Theoretical Framework for the Logistics Strategies of B2C E-Commerce Retailers Based on Current Trends in the Industry
by Christian Straubert
Abstract: Objective: In B2C e-commerce, logistics is highly visible and very important to customers. It is therefore important that e tailers have a strategy for the type of logistics services they want to offer, i.e., how they position themselves compared to their competitors. This paper aims to develop a theoretical framework for logistics strategies within the B2C e commerce market.
Method: The theoretical framework developed in this paper is based on two sources of information: extensive quantitative data concerning the current and future trends in B2C e-commerce logistics and well-known models concerning competitive strategy.
Findings: We find that B2C e-commerce logistics can be categorised into three main strategies: the Logistics Industry Leaders strategy, the Logistics Efficiency Seekers strategy, and the Logistics Niche Concepts strategy. We argue that because of the strong economies of scale in B2C e commerce, logistics industry leaders are in a disproportionately strong position, especially compared to logistics efficiency seekers.
Originality: The emphasis on competitive advantages and market positioning based on the logistics services offered by e-tailers is a new perspective that has not yet been discussed in the literature.
Keywords: B2C e commerce; logistics strategy; theoretical framework; competition; trends.
A reconfiguration approach for a supply chain tracking platform
by Hedi Zidi, Nadia Hamani, Cyrine Laajili, Mounir Benaissa
Abstract: Abstract: Over the last few years, the current state of the market is putting companies under pressure, instability and fluctuation. At the meanwhile, the appearance of the industry 4.0 paradigm has brought new concepts, so leaded to a technological development, which represent the engine of transformation that companies may bring in order to confront the new market challenges. In this context, companies have resorted to the implementation of reconfigurable supply chain which are able to deal with the markets expectation and the clients needs whatever the conditions, this was by adopting new technologies characterizing the fourth industrial revolution such as Internet of Things, cloud computing. Moreover, the emergence of these new technologies imports solutions for more efficient shipping, real-time tracking and traceability. These solutions make logistic entities more connected, intelligent, autonomous, reconfigurable and even capable of acting at the real time. Inspired by these new technologies, several researchers have described in their works how useful they are, especially to design and model digital platform for real-time transport tracking. In order to design a reconfigurable supply chain, we propose to extend a collaborative platform to introduce reconfiguration mechanisms in order to make it reactive whatever the events type. We used Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and design reconfiguration mechanisms by adopting the approach based on the extension of OCCI (Open Cloud Computing Interface).
Keywords: Supply Chain; reconfiguration; Internet of Things; Cloud Computing; Collaborative platform; Real-time tracking; Traceability. RFID. Information sharing.
A sustainable collaborative approach to the distribution network design problem with CO2 emissions allocation
by Nassim Mrabti, Nadia Hamani, Laurent Delahoche
Abstract: Horizontal collaboration is one of the best strategies used to improve freight transportation performance in terms of sustainability. In this paper, we address the collaborative distribution network design problem through the reduction of CO2 emissions. Contrary to most studies, we do not limit our research to the evaluation of CO2 emissions caused by transport. We also evaluate the CO2 emissions caused by vehicle depreciation and those generated by hubs due to their operation and construction. To demonstrate the pooling performance, three scenarios are considered. The first one is a non-collaborative scenario where suppliers are independent of each other in transport and storage. The second one is a collaborative scenario without addressing the vehicle routing problem in the downstream part of the network. This problem is considered in the third scenario. The performance of the collaboration is evaluated by a case study of a French distribution network. Moreover, we address the CO2 emissions sharing problem between partners by using three allocation approaches, namely average, Volume and Shapley value. Relevant results are obtained by the collaborative networks with a significant reduction of the negative impact of each partner on the environment.
Keywords: Horizontal collaboration; Distribution Network Design Problem; Sustainability; CO2 emissions allocation.
Special Issue on: Y-RIB 2019/5th Belt and Road Initiative Conference 2020 Structural Changes in Global Transport and Logistics Since the Inception of the Belt and Road Initiative
Has the Belt and Road Initiative Promoted Railway Logistics Efficiency?
An application of three-stage DEA
by Yaokun Zhang, Junyong Xiang
Abstract: The main goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) include policy coordination, connectivity of infrastructure, and unimpeded trade. Almost six years have passed since the BRI was implemented, and there is an urgent need to evaluate logistics efficiency of BRI countries and explore the changes. This study focused on 23 countries along the New AsiaEurope Continental Bridge (NAE) and the ChinaCentral AsiaWest Asia Economic Corridor (CCW). Using three-stage data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis methods, we evaluated each countrys railway logistics efficiencies, consisting of technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency, and then identified possible environmental factors. The results showed that BRI countries logistics efficiencies are uneven and could be affected by digitalisation level, economic openness, and industrial structure. NAE countries benefited more from BRI than CCW countries. Although some countries efficiencies remain less than satisfactory, BRI has effectively promoted logistics efficiency on the whole, especially through enlarging the scale efficiency of the railway logistics.
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; railway logistics industry; logistics efficiency; three-stage DEA; data envelopment analysis; stochastic frontier analysis; SFA.
Key Factors That Influence the Performance of China Railway Express Operations: Case Studies of 10 Lines in China
by Zhaolin Cheng, Laijun Zhao, Huiyong Li
Abstract: As more and more China Railway (CR) Express lines have opened under the govern-ments Belt and Road Initiative, the performance of CR Express operations has var-ied widely. Many CR Express lines face problems such as low demand, infrequent departures, and heavy reliance on local government subsidies. In this study, we ana-lyzed the key factors that influence the performance of CR Express operations through a case study of 10 typical CR Express lines. We found that local market de-mand, government incentives, central government policy, infrastructure at the CR Ex-press departure stations, and matching the geographical location to the operational mode are the key factors in successful CR Express operations. Central government policy can also stimulate local market demand and government incentives can promote infrastructure construction. The key factors that we identified interact, and can jointly increase the performance of CR Express.
Keywords: CR Express; Key Factor; Operations Performance; Case studies;Belt and Road.
Study on Evaluation of Transport Routes between China and Myanmar in the context of Belt and Road Initiative by Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS
by Lixin Shen, Zin Chaw Su, Yang Xu, Cong Wang, Ke Jing
Abstract: Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, Myanmar has become a strategic location and important junction connecting the Indian Ocean with inland provinces in southwest China. However, due to the limited container port capacity and poor infrastructure, the country cannot establish efficient intermodal transportation routes between China and Myanmar. Accordingly, this paper attempts to optimize the selection of intermodal transport routes between Chongqing in China and Yangon in Myanmar by sea route and land route, applying fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS methods. The findings in this paper contribute to not only supporting Sino-Myanmar cross-border logistics enterprises to reduce transportation costs and enhancing collaboration between the two countries, but also helping policymakers, who play a key role in empowering and promoting the development of transport routes, proceed required improvements for the efficiency of intermodal transportation chains.
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); Myanmar; Intermodal Transportation; Sino-Myanmar Bilateral Trade; Fuzzy AHP; TOPSIS.
Negative Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on Shipping Demand of the Pacific Route and its Mitigation by Interoperability with the Belt and Road Initiative
by Feng LIAN, Yuzhi Guo, Zhongzhen Yang
Abstract: To clarify the impacts of Sino-US trade friction on the shipping demand of the Pacific route as well as on Chinas export trade, the bilateral distances in four dimensions are integrated into a single trade distance between two nations. And then, a bilateral trade gravity model is built by taking GDP, trade distance, and logistics performance as independent variables. Chinas exports to the US as well as to the other partner countries are estimated in the cases with and without trade friction. The results show that trade friction will reduce Chinas export to the US by 3.05% and container traffic on the Pacific route will decline correspondingly, while Chinas export to the other 19 counties will increase by 2.4% on average. It can be said that the negative impact of trade friction on Chinas export to the US may be compensated by the export increase to other partner counties and China should strengthen it bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries.
Keywords: Sino-US trade friction; trade distance; gravity model; pacific shipping route; freight demand; Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Value Chain and Implications for the Belt and Road Initiative
by Inkyo Cheong, Jeong Ho Yoo Yoo, Kyoungseo Hong, Paul Tae-Woo Lee
Abstract: China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has the merit of contributing to regional economic development in tandem with infrastructure investment along economic and transport corridors. However, the issue of its sustainability has been raised due to enormous capital requirements and low profitability. Moreover, the outbreak of the COVID-19 has caused incomparable economic damage and supply chain disruptions worldwide in the form of entry bans, quarantines, trade blockades, and global protectionism, which are barriers to international trade and work against the development of the global value chain (GVC). This paper aims to quantitatively estimate the impact of COVID-19 on GVC adjustment by region and industry and derives policy implications based on the decomposition of value added (VA) and vertical specialization (VS) trade. It is estimated that the GVC will shrink by 4.8% - 20.2% in terms of VS trade depending on various scenarios.
Keywords: COVID-19; Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); Global Value Chain (GVC); GVC adjustment; quarantine and blockade; resilience; vertical specialization trade.