International Journal of Global Energy Issues (11 papers in press)
Temperature range across Nigeria to the end of 21st century: prospects for photovoltaics based on CMIP5 and CORDEX perspectives
by Ugochukwu K. Okoro, Chizomam I. Usoh, Cecily O. Nwokocha, Wen Chen
Abstract: Temperature range (TR) data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) has been validated by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency observations. The horizontal solar radiation (Gh) is estimated from the TR using the Annandale method and validated by the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, which presents it as a proxy to Gh in such data-sparse area. CMIP5 and CORDEX-Africa estimated Gh and Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation, respectively, are compared with the estimated Gh. The models historical outputs for the estimated Gh show a significant correlation (99.9% confidence level from the t-test) with the CRU proxy. The models estimated Gh projections have two epochs, from 2006 to 2038 and from 2039 to 2089. Compared to the historical, the first epoch has all models projecting a Gh decrease in RCP 4.5 (CCCMa = 0.28%, DMI = 0.31%, KNMI = 0.43%), whereas, CCCMa (0.47%) and DMI (0.06%) projects increment in the RCP 8.5. In contrast, the second epoch reveals a greater projected decrease in the RCP 4.5 from CCCMa (0.45%) and KNMI (1.81%), whereas, a greater projected increment from CCCMa (1.40%) and DMI (0.35%) in the RCP 8.5. Our findings are imperative in PV planning, siting and management across Nigeria.
Keywords: Nigeria; temperature range; solar radiation; CMIP5; CORDEX-Africa.
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the sugarcane chain in Brazil: An input-output approach (2000-2014)
by Pery Shikida, Marco Montoya, Giovani Pitilin, Bianca Giordani
Abstract: This paper sought to evaluate the sugarcane chain in Brazil using input-output matrices for energy consumption and CO2 emissions from either renewable or non-renewable sources, in the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014. For this purpose, energy and emission matrices were harmonised and disaggregated vis-a-vis the country's monetary matrices. As a result, energy consumption by the said chain grew by 6.7 per cent a year, having accounted for nearly 25 per cent of consumption by the Brazilian agribusiness industry in 2014. However, energy consumption from renewable sources not only prevailed but also rose from 73 per cent in 2000 to 88 per cent in 2014. Therefore, emissions from the sugarcane chain are becoming increasingly suitable for preserving the environment.
Keywords: agribusiness; sugarcane agroindustry; renewable sources.
Impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices: Fresh insight from Asymmetric ARDL approach of co-integration
by Umair Kashif, Chen Hong, Snovia Naseem, Muhammad Waqar Akram, Muhammad Saeed
Abstract: The current study analyzes the asymmetric effects of oil prices on food prices in Pakistan from 1977- 2017. ADF, PP, and KPSS root unit tests were used to substantiate data stationarity, while nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) were utilized for asymmetry testing. The NARDL results confirm cointegration and show a strong positive impression of oil rise to food prices in the long-run. In the meantime, a decline in oil prices relationship with food prices is absent and inconsequential. Additionally, positive changes in oil prices have a considerable role in food prices only in the short-run. Due to the absence of the significant influence of oil prices reduction at food prices in the short-run and long-run, market strength could be essential for the formation of Pakistan's food value behavior.
Keywords: Oil price; food price behavior; exchange rates; asymmetry; NARDL.
Cheating Behaviour among OPEC Member-States and Oil Price Fairness and Stability: An Empirical Analysis
by Masud Ibrahim, Kamil Omoteso
Abstract: The paper posits that cheating behaviour in OPEC has ethical, auditing and accountability issues that impact on its reputation and ability to achieve main objectives of ensuring stable and fair oil prices in the oil markets within a target price band. Data from 2000-2012 (i.e. production quota era) were analysed based on (VAR/VEC) framework. The results indicate that OPEC cheating, mainly instigated by the amount of spare production capacity available to OPEC members, does not seem to have a significant direct effect on the international oil prices. However, the degree of cheating by OPEC member-states might disrupt its ability to maintain surplus capacity sufficient to reduce price speculation in the oil markets. The potential impact of continued cheating in OPEC could become more worrisome for an effective regulatory framework for energy market transparency as well as OPECs reputation. We conclude by recommending a policy action in OPEC to redesign the existing quota system considered fair and just to the members with a view to addressing cheating behaviour.
Keywords: OPEC cartel; cooperation; cheating; fairness and stable oil prices.
Research On Energy Supply Chain Risk Prediction Based On The Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Algorithm
by Tao Xiao, Tao Zhang, Ning Zhang
Abstract: In order to improve the ability of risk prediction, a risk prediction method of energy supply chain based on fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is proposed. Based on the regression analysis results of risk data samples, panel data fusion is carried out to extract the correlation feature of risk panel data of energy supply chain. Using the prior information distributed detection method to construct the statistical characteristic quantity of energy supply chain risk prediction. According to the prior sample regression analysis results of risk prediction of energy supply chain, the risk characteristics of energy supply chain are extracted, and the fuzzy c-means clustering method is used to cluster the risk characteristics, and the risk prediction of energy supply chain is carried out. The simulation results show that this method has high accuracy and credibility for energy supply chain risk prediction, and improves the risk management ability of energy supply chain.
Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; clustering; energy supply chain; risk prediction.
Research On Risk Assessment Method Of Energy System Based On Data Mining
by Lei Zhang, Huaxi Chen, Ma-li ZHENG
Abstract: In order to overcome the problem of data index confusion and index weight ambiguity in the traditional energy system risk assessment process, this paper proposes an energy system risk assessment method based on data mining.This method USES data mining technology and quantitative index processing method to select risk assessment index of energy system, construct risk assessment index system of energy system, determine the weight of risk assessment index of energy system, and build risk assessment model of energy system on this basis.The experimental results show that the weighing accuracy and evaluation accuracy of the proposed method are above 90%, and the skewness coefficient is always close to 0.The method has a high degree of rationality in energy risk index selection, high precision in index weight and high accuracy in evaluation results, which can effectively guarantee the safety of urban energy system.
Keywords: Data mining; Energy system; Indicator system; Risk assessment.
Examining the impact of COVID-19 on Indian energy exchange market: empirical evidence from a multi-regional panel data analysis
by Bamadev Mahapatra, Diptimayee Jena
Abstract: This study aims to explore the effect of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Indian energy exchange market (IEX), especially on energy sell, energy buy, and energy price. The data used in this study is multi-regional panel data consisting of 13 regions observed through March to August 2020. To investigate the relationship, a panel cointegration, causality, and a Panel-Based Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical outcomes confirm that a long-run equilibrium relationship is noticeable in the models. Results of the causality test suggest that there exists a unidirectional causality running from COVID-19 to the IEX. Based on the findings of long-run and short-run elasticities of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, this study suggests the government and policymakers should provide aids and incentives to the power generating companies and to the investors which generate, sell and purchase energy from the energy exchange market.
Keywords: COVID-19; energy exchange market; energy sell; energy buy; energy price; panel data; cointegration; causality; panel ARDL; India.
The Convoluted Path of Power Sector Reforms Underutilized Generation Capacity A New Challenge for Indian Thermal Power Generators
by Brijesh Bhatt, A.K. Tripathi, G.C. Tripathi
Abstract: India embarked upon the path of power sector reforms in 1991. With subsequent steps like opening up of private investment in generation, unbundling, open access, power trading and many other structural & policy initiatives for generation, transmission and distribution, it aimed to promote competition in the sector. In a country facing chronic power shortages, one of the key objectives of these reform initiatives has been to ensure an optimal investment in generation capacity as well as optimal capacity utilization for the generation sector. Against this backdrop, we studied the evolution of generation capacity in the country, with focus on three aspects, namely, fuel-source wise, ownership wise, and region wise capacity addition. We also analyzed how effectively the capacities are being utilized. The analysis revealed two significant results: (1) there is considerable stranded capacity which does not get through to the grid and (2) there is also significant capacity which is grid connected and commercially available, but is producing at very low plant load factor (PLF). In a country which faces power deficit, such a situation is a matter of great concern. To ensure sustainable energy supply system, these issues need to be addressed through appropriate interventions.
Keywords: Indian power sector; Reform; Generation; Capacity; Private Investment; Regulation.
Crude oil futures tail risk measurement based on extreme value theory
by Chunjiao Gao
Abstract: In this paper, VaR, ES and spectral risk (SR) measures of tail risk are calculated based on extreme value theory. The empirical results show that the extreme value POT model can be used to characterize the tail risk of earnings under extreme fluctuations in Brent crude oil futures prices. Moreover, the risk of VaR, ES and SR at the tail of Brent crude oil futures based on extreme value theory is higher than that under the normal distribution assumption, which indicates that the traditional normal distribution assumption will underestimate the tail risk.
Keywords: Spectral risk measurement; hyperbolic risk spectral function; extreme value theory; tail risk.
Research on the energy-saving effect evaluation of open-pit coal mines based on energy audit
by You ZHOU, Yu Liu, Yuan Li
Abstract: Energy conservation is a long-term strategic policy of China's economic development, and the issue of energy resources has become a strategic issue in countrys economic development. At present, the management level of open-pit coal mine is relatively low, and energy audit is less carried out, energy audit provides data analysis, benchmarking management, technical reform suggestions and other contents for the current energy consumption of enterprises, which can increase the energy management of enterprises and reduce energy waste. This study takes the open-pit coal mine as an example, the research shows that energy consumption in the transportation process of an open-pit mine is the highest, most of which comes from diesel oil. Optimizing truck transportation routes and reducing truck waiting time are the most important ways to save energy in open-pit mines. The highest are the annual transportation volume of trucks, the lowest the annual average diesel fuel consumption. The energy consumption monitoring of large electric shovels is necessary. Electric-driven mining and stripping equipment can replace oil with electricity and reduce energy consumption.
Keywords: Open pit coal mine; energy audit; energy saving evaluation; energy saving effect evaluation.
Special Issue on: Energy Use Efficiency
Building a prediction model of solar power generation based on improved Grey Markov Chain
by Chongyu Cui, Zhaoxia Li, Junjie Zhang
Abstract: In order to improve the prediction ability and reliability management ability of solar power generation, a solar power generation prediction model based on Improved Grey Markov chain is proposed. The constrained parameter model of solar power generation prediction is established, and the disturbance characteristics of solar power generation are analyzed. On this basis, the improved grey Markov chain model is applied to the big data fusion analysis of solar power generation, and the reliability prediction of solar power generation is realized. The results show that the prediction accuracy of this method is high, up to 1, which improves the quality and stability of output power, and has certain application value.
Keywords: grey Markov chain; solar energy; electricity generation; prediction; charge volatility; Power grid.