International Journal of Global Energy Issues (23 papers in press)
Temperature range across Nigeria to the end of 21st century: Prospects for Photovoltaics based on CMIP5 and CORDEX perspectives.
by Ugochukwu Okoro, Chizomam Usoh, Cecily Nwokocha, Wen Chen
Abstract: The horizontal solar radiation (Gh) has been estimated from the temperature range data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) using the Annandale method. The temperature range is validated by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency observations, whereas, the estimated Gh is validated by the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) Gh data. Selected CMIP5 and CORDEX-Africa models estimated Gh and Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation output are compared with the CRU estimated Gh. The performances of the CRU estimated Gh with the PVGIS presents it as a proxy to Gh in such data-sparse area. The comparative analysis between the historical experiments of the models output for the estimated Gh and the CRU proxy show significant correlation at a 99.9% confidence level from t-test. The trend analysis reveals that the models estimated Gh projections have two epochs, from 2006 to 2038 and from 2039 to 2089. When compared to the historical, the first epoch shows all the models projecting a decrease of the average estimated Gh in the RCP 4.5 (CCCMa = -0.28%, DMI = -0.31%, KNMI = -0.43%), whereas, CCCMa (0.47%) and DMI (0.06%) projects increment in the RCP 8.5. On the other hand, the second epoch reveals a greater projected decrease in the RCP 4.5 from CCCMa (-0.45%) and KNMI (-1.81%), whereas, a greater projected increment from CCCMa (1.40%) and DMI (0.35%) in the RCP 8.5. Our findings are imperative in PV planning, siting and management across Nigeria.
Keywords: Nigeria; temperature range; solar radiation; CMIP5; CORDEX-Africa.
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the sugarcane chain in Brazil: An input-output approach (2000-2014)
by Pery Shikida, Marco Montoya, Giovani Pitilin, Bianca Giordani
Abstract: This paper sought to evaluate the sugarcane chain in Brazil using input-output matrices for energy consumption and CO2 emissions from either renewable or non-renewable sources, in the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2014. For this purpose, energy and emission matrices were harmonised and disaggregated vis-a-vis the country's monetary matrices. As a result, energy consumption by the said chain grew by 6.7 per cent a year, having accounted for nearly 25 per cent of consumption by the Brazilian agribusiness industry in 2014. However, energy consumption from renewable sources not only prevailed but also rose from 73 per cent in 2000 to 88 per cent in 2014. Therefore, emissions from the sugarcane chain are becoming increasingly suitable for preserving the environment.
Keywords: agribusiness; sugarcane agroindustry; renewable sources.
Impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices: Fresh insight from Asymmetric ARDL approach of co-integration
by Umair Kashif, Chen Hong, Snovia Naseem, Muhammad Waqar Akram, Muhammad Saeed
Abstract: The current study analyzes the asymmetric effects of oil prices on food prices in Pakistan from 1977- 2017. ADF, PP, and KPSS root unit tests were used to substantiate data stationarity, while nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) were utilized for asymmetry testing. The NARDL results confirm cointegration and show a strong positive impression of oil rise to food prices in the long-run. In the meantime, a decline in oil prices relationship with food prices is absent and inconsequential. Additionally, positive changes in oil prices have a considerable role in food prices only in the short-run. Due to the absence of the significant influence of oil prices reduction at food prices in the short-run and long-run, market strength could be essential for the formation of Pakistan's food value behavior.
Keywords: Oil price; food price behavior; exchange rates; asymmetry; NARDL.
Cheating Behaviour among OPEC Member-States and Oil Price Fairness and Stability: An Empirical Analysis
by Masud Ibrahim, Kamil Omoteso
Abstract: The paper posits that cheating behaviour in OPEC has ethical, auditing and accountability issues that impact on its reputation and ability to achieve main objectives of ensuring stable and fair oil prices in the oil markets within a target price band. Data from 2000-2012 (i.e. production quota era) were analysed based on (VAR/VEC) framework. The results indicate that OPEC cheating, mainly instigated by the amount of spare production capacity available to OPEC members, does not seem to have a significant direct effect on the international oil prices. However, the degree of cheating by OPEC member-states might disrupt its ability to maintain surplus capacity sufficient to reduce price speculation in the oil markets. The potential impact of continued cheating in OPEC could become more worrisome for an effective regulatory framework for energy market transparency as well as OPECs reputation. We conclude by recommending a policy action in OPEC to redesign the existing quota system considered fair and just to the members with a view to addressing cheating behaviour.
Keywords: OPEC cartel; cooperation; cheating; fairness and stable oil prices.
Examining the impact of COVID-19 on Indian energy exchange market: empirical evidence from a multi-regional panel data analysis
by Bamadev Mahapatra, Diptimayee Jena
Abstract: This study aims to explore the effect of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Indian energy exchange market (IEX), especially on energy sell, energy buy, and energy price. The data used in this study is multi-regional panel data consisting of 13 regions observed through March to August 2020. To investigate the relationship, a panel cointegration, causality, and a Panel-Based Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical outcomes confirm that a long-run equilibrium relationship is noticeable in the models. Results of the causality test suggest that there exists a unidirectional causality running from COVID-19 to the IEX. Based on the findings of long-run and short-run elasticities of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, this study suggests the government and policymakers should provide aids and incentives to the power generating companies and to the investors which generate, sell and purchase energy from the energy exchange market.
Keywords: COVID-19; energy exchange market; energy sell; energy buy; energy price; panel data; cointegration; causality; panel ARDL; India.
The Convoluted Path of Power Sector Reforms Underutilized Generation Capacity A New Challenge for Indian Thermal Power Generators
by Brijesh Bhatt, A.K. Tripathi, G.C. Tripathi
Abstract: India embarked upon the path of power sector reforms in 1991. With subsequent steps like opening up of private investment in generation, unbundling, open access, power trading and many other structural & policy initiatives for generation, transmission and distribution, it aimed to promote competition in the sector. In a country facing chronic power shortages, one of the key objectives of these reform initiatives has been to ensure an optimal investment in generation capacity as well as optimal capacity utilization for the generation sector. Against this backdrop, we studied the evolution of generation capacity in the country, with focus on three aspects, namely, fuel-source wise, ownership wise, and region wise capacity addition. We also analyzed how effectively the capacities are being utilized. The analysis revealed two significant results: (1) there is considerable stranded capacity which does not get through to the grid and (2) there is also significant capacity which is grid connected and commercially available, but is producing at very low plant load factor (PLF). In a country which faces power deficit, such a situation is a matter of great concern. To ensure sustainable energy supply system, these issues need to be addressed through appropriate interventions.
Keywords: Indian power sector; Reform; Generation; Capacity; Private Investment; Regulation.
Special Issue on: Uncertainties and Risk Management in Competitive Energy Markets
Research On Energy Supply Chain Risk Prediction Based On The Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Algorithm
by Tao Xiao, Tao Zhang, Ning Zhang
Abstract: In order to improve the ability of risk prediction, a risk prediction method of energy supply chain based on fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is proposed. Based on the regression analysis results of risk data samples, panel data fusion is carried out to extract the correlation feature of risk panel data of energy supply chain. Using the prior information distributed detection method to construct the statistical characteristic quantity of energy supply chain risk prediction. According to the prior sample regression analysis results of risk prediction of energy supply chain, the risk characteristics of energy supply chain are extracted, and the fuzzy c-means clustering method is used to cluster the risk characteristics, and the risk prediction of energy supply chain is carried out. The simulation results show that this method has high accuracy and credibility for energy supply chain risk prediction, and improves the risk management ability of energy supply chain.
Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; clustering; energy supply chain; risk prediction.
Research On Risk Assessment Method Of Energy System Based On Data Mining
by Lei Zhang, Huaxi Chen, Ma-li ZHENG
Abstract: In order to overcome the problem of data index confusion and index weight ambiguity in the traditional energy system risk assessment process, this paper proposes an energy system risk assessment method based on data mining.This method USES data mining technology and quantitative index processing method to select risk assessment index of energy system, construct risk assessment index system of energy system, determine the weight of risk assessment index of energy system, and build risk assessment model of energy system on this basis.The experimental results show that the weighing accuracy and evaluation accuracy of the proposed method are above 90%, and the skewness coefficient is always close to 0.The method has a high degree of rationality in energy risk index selection, high precision in index weight and high accuracy in evaluation results, which can effectively guarantee the safety of urban energy system.
Keywords: Data mining; Energy system; Indicator system; Risk assessment.
Energy Data Temporal Information Index Algorithm Based on Critical Point Dynamic Adjustment
by Zhongli Shen, Qiyue Xie, Fei Jiang, Yi Zuo
Abstract: In order to improve the scheduling ability of temporal information of energy data, an index algorithm of temporal information of energy data based on dynamic adjustment of critical points is proposed. Using the statistical characteristics analysis method, the energy time information structure is analyzed with big data. The phase space reconstruction method is used to adjust the structure of the time information of the energy data and reconstruct it adaptively, and extract the relevant characteristics of the time information. Using the method of dynamic adjustment of critical points, the paper studies the attribute clustering and feature retrieval in the process of time information index of energy data. The fuzzy autocorrelation feature matching method is used to realize the time information index of energy data. The simulation results show that this method reduces the index time of energy data and improves the anti-jamming ability of energy data temporal information index.
Keywords: Critical point; dynamic adjustment; energy data; temporal information; index.
Research On Financial Stochastic Dynamic Model Of Energy Market Based On Mcmc Simulation
by Guoqi Bi
Abstract: In order to overcome the problem of stochastic dynamic parameters of financial model, a stochastic dynamic model of energy market finance based on MCMC simulation is proposed. In this model, a series of sample values are obtained by Gibbs sampler of MCMC simulation method, and the point estimates of dynamic model are obtained by posterior sample mean. The price data of oilfut and propane futures in the financial market of New York Mercantile Exchange from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018 are selected to obtain the financial fluctuation through the WinBUGS simulation software. The experimental results show that the time series of oilfut and propane futures have the characteristics of peak and tail, and the characteristics of peak and tail of oilfut are more obvious; the market returns of oilfut and propane futures do not obey the normal distribution; emergencies will cause fluctuations in the energy market.
Keywords: MCMC simulation; Energy market; Finance; Stochastic; Dynamic; Model.
Special Issue on: Energy as an Evolutionary Basis for Dialogic International Policies
Asia-Africa energy development cooperation: Double coincidence of interests
by Ahmad Khaleel, Milindo Chakrabarti, Mridul Dharwal
Abstract: The existence of double coincidence of interests between India in particular and Asia in general on one hand and Africa on the other cannot be timelier than now. This is becoming more apparent with the emergence of necessary and needed tools, frameworks and conditions for simultaneously satisfying the interests of both parties. The development challenges and energy resources abundance in Africa can be near-perfectly matched with the emerging excess capacities and energy need in India to create one of the best opportunities that will systematically result in a win-win situation. The potential of Africa's fossil energy resources meeting India's hydrocarbons energy need and hosting additional investment in return for an improvement in Africa's absorption capacities in terms of both finance and technology are some of the costs and benefits ingredients for this greater cooperation. However, there is the need to take into consideration the implicit impact of climate change/action on business and economy, specifically carbon lock-in and carbon bubble in the energy collaboration strategy. The condition is now right to scale-up this kind of cooperation as the world is witnessing the potential attitude of other emerging powers in debt-ridden arrangements towards weaker (African) countries. This will go a long way in saving the reputation and acceptance South-South Cooperation have been building all these years.
Keywords: hydrocarbons; Africa; carbon bubble; carbon lock-in; energy security.
SYNOPTICS, PART IV: Application of the Synoptics Model for the social analysis of territorial and functional compound systems
by Herbert Rauch
Abstract: Compounds are within the ten levels of social systems those interconnected social arrangements where a territorial or a functional realm is circumscribed by a kind of boundaries. As a matter of fact, the application of the 'C'-Theory with respect to compounds was first simply tried out: could it be possible that the power-formula of 'G' and 'A', Alpha-Beta-Gamma-Omega, makes sense also at this level? Surprisingly it does make sense, and more: It can describe and also explain the stability and eventual instability of such social configurations of course, to follow up on this path of social analysis one has to go at least roughly over the introduction of Synoptics as a hermeneutic method, as was outlined in Synoptics PART I Synoptic Social Analysis is a theory and a method to diagnose social systems and social processes aiming to obtain perspectives for therapeutic social action, for instance and especially with respect to processes of conflict work.
The levels and their specific dynamics are described here in several PARTS (articles). Here in PART IV, territorial (settlements) compound systems (such as villages and cities) are outlined, as well as functional-compound systems (with a nation-wide health system as an important example).
Keywords: Synoptics method; social analysis; Raoul Schindler; psychoanalysis; social sciences; social systems; challenge principle; political case studies.
SYNOPTICS, Part III: Application of the Synoptics Model for the social analysis of mass formations and organisations
by Herbert Rauch
Abstract: Synoptics Synoptic Social Analysis is a theory and a method to diagnose social systems and social processes aiming to obtain perspectives for therapeutic social action, here especially aiming for deeper understanding mass formations; diagnosing mass formations in their organisation and preparation can help to set up responding therapeutic actions. The same holds true for organisations of any size (from SME to TNE, with commercial or non-profit goals). Since as mentioned in PART I - Synoptics believes in the (forgotten) unity of all social sciences, here with respect to mass formations and organisations we can see how Depth Psychology (Caruso 1972) /Psychoanalysis (Freud 1967) and Group Dynamics (which works also on large scale assemblies Joussain 1937), and Sociology (Otto 1917) have to be united in one broader perspective (i.e. here called Synoptics). It works with a modified model of Raoul Schindlers' theory of human rank dynamics; and is here addressed as the challenge principle theory (based on the so-called 'C'-hypothesis), dealing especially with the conditions of cooperation and conflict within the human species. This modified and vastly elaborated model works with a horizontal dimension (C-dynamics) and a vertical dimension (ten levels of social systems are conceptualized to frame all so far known social systems. In this so-called vertical dimension, all social systems are distinguished with respect to increasing complexity (these level are: the individual, the dyad, the small group, the large group, the mass formation, the organization, the functional compound system, the territorial compound system, the sovereign social system, the ecumenical system (i.e., today: the global social system). In several PARTS (articles) these social systems are conceptualized and empirically described in more detail. Here in PART III, mass formations and organizations are outlined, giving also the main results of one related comparative study each. As a matter of fact, the zeitgeist since the 1960ies (esp. 1968) is against structure, discipline and authority; however, the empirical data all show that these forms are not to be annihilated by attitudes and will, however, that harder and softer forms of these manifestations are to be observed. The softer they are the more social space they leave for self-realization, which seems still to be a welcomed clou in our time (e.g. observing the guidelines of the newspaper The Guardian, London, 1968-2020).
Keywords: Mass formations; organisations; Raoul Schindler; Institut für Sozialanalyse; companies; social dynamics; social analysis; synoptics model.
The Failure of Deep Decarbonizing of Europe by 2050 in Line with the Paris Agreement: a Losing Player Analysis
by Majid Asadnabizadeh
Abstract: Some international climate change negotiations result in clear successes. Others seem to fail or simply flat line. The 2015 Paris Accord reflects a formal transition in global climate change management to solve a collective issue by promoting and facilitating transformative deep decarbonization pathways. The EU States cannot yet reach the 2050 decarbonization plan which requires cooperation. This paper sets out a structure to help understand the failure and challenges for the EU to develop a deep decarbonized pathway. Existing literatures fails to fully explain this situation. This article develops a frameworkeconomic interest groups--that focuses on winning and losing players. A plausible answer lies in a process of shaping a coalition against the EUs proposed pathway by losing states. I argue that the presence of losing states explains the failure of the current EU deep decarbonization pathway in line with the Paris Agreement
Keywords: Paris agreement; Deep DE carbonization; Interest groups; Losing states.
Contemporary architecture with glass facades facing the energy efficiency of solar materials (VPV-IGU) in the hot climate of the Saharan region A case study in Bechar
by Khadidja KHENCHA, Wided Ratiba BIARA, Hocine BELMILI
Abstract: This paper discusses a comparative study of four types of glazing materials using in contemporary architecture. The first one is the clear and simple glazing, the second is the double glazing, the third one the (STPV) Semi-transparent photovoltaic, and the last one is the (VPV-IGU) Vacuum Photovoltaic Insulated Glass Unit. At first, the paper presents a small historical review concerning the use of glazing in contemporary architecture in the world and in Algeria. The present study is based on developing a building model situated in the south of Algeria characterized by specific meteorological conditions, a very hot climate. With a curtain wall design under TRNSYS to compare in the effect of each type of glazes on thermal performance inside the building and on the human comfort (heat gain, heat losses, thermal load, and lighting energy). In the second time the evaluation of the power generation and the energy efficiency of all types of glass used in this contemporary building.
Keywords: Glazing materials; (STPV) Semi-transparent photovoltaic; (VPV-IGU) Vacuum Photovoltaic Insulated Glass Unit; TRNSYS; energy efficiency; harsh climate; thermal performance; thermal load; heat losses; power generation.
Prospects for employment in renewable energy in Ukraine, 2014-2035
by Galyna Trypolska
Abstract: Renewable energy sources (RES) in Ukraine have begun to play an important role in the energy balance. The power-generating installed capacity grew significantly in 2019. Despite this growth, the social impact of renewables in Ukraine is not yet known. The paper aims to assess the impact of jobs in the power and heat sectors that were already in place in Ukraine in 2014-2019 and those in both renewable and conventional energy in 2020-2035, should Ukraine follow the energy path defined by the Energy Strategy of Ukraine through 2035. The assessment was made using an employment factors approach. The study finds that in 2014-2019, RES supported 157,000 jobs in Ukraine, of which 92,000 were available in 2019. The number of jobs excluding equipment manufacturing amounted to 94,000 as equipment was manufactured primarily abroad. The Energy Strategy of Ukraine through 2035 is heavily coal-oriented, which contradicts the countrys efforts for a greener future.
Keywords: renewable energy; jobs; Ukraine.
Stability, Control and Modeling Analysis of Micro Grid Connected to the Wind Turbine with Optimized Boosted Converter
by Soheil Honarbari, Mohsen Alizadeh Bidgoli
Abstract: Wind turbines as a renewable energy are installed and operated as wind farms in various locations with windy climates. It is important to consider improving the climate and not damaging these wind turbines, because of in these areas apart from being close to the seas, deserts, forests and other environmental areas. Connecting micro grids to wind turbines can lead to improved power generation and transmission to distribution networks. Therefore, formulating and configuring the micro-grid connected to the wind turbine requires accurate examination of the configuration of the micro-grid with wind power generation system along with variable speed with wind energy determination and error estimation for stability analysis and control by means of error detection. The aim of this study is to use fuzzy logic control systems and then identify the faulty areas for stability analysis with the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Simulation results represented improved error estimation and stability analysis and other evaluation criteria.
Keywords: Wind Turbines; Micro-Grid; Stability Analysis; Optimized Controller.
Prospects and roadmaps for harvesting solar thermal power in tropical Brunei Darussalam
by Nur Wardhyana Yahya, D.M. Reddy Prasad, Dakshinamoorthy Sathiyamoorthy, Rajashekhar Pendyala
Abstract: The need to augment Brunei Darussalams renewable energy sources for power generation to 10% by 2035 is necessary due to the uncertainty of oil and gas reserves. The increasing demand for electricity and the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions require alternative renewable energy sources. The country should focus on the potential of solar thermal energy in generating power. As the power generated from its solar photovoltaic plant is still significantly low, this paper aims to focus on the prospects of widely used Solar Thermal Power (STP) technologies in Brunei Darussalam. Despite being commercialised in many parts of the world, the primary problem in tropical Southeast Asian regions is due to the fluctuating solar radiation, high humidity and frequent cloud cover. This study identified currently available STP technologies and further suggested approaches for large-scale power generation, and ways to minimise the issues arise from the climate conditions.
Keywords: solar thermal power; concentrated solar power; tropical climate.
How to promote renewable energies to the public sphere in Eastern Europe
by Gilbert Ahamer
Abstract: In order to identify the most crucial and promising strategies to enhance public information for better renewable energy sources (RS) implementation in an Eastern European country (here: Ukraine), two dozen expert interviews were performed with stakeholders from the so-called quintuple helix of innovation: Research & University, Civil Society & NGOs, Industry & Enterprises, Governance & Administration, and Media.
A gap analysis was performed based on the analyses expressed by the Ukrainian interview partners, and a suggestion for the structural improvement of a public RES-oriented website wss provided. It was suggested to use the structure of the main obstacles perceived and to build onto this structure how to solve these key obstacles for further RES increases, namely:
Financial, e.g. how to obtain suitable and cheap credits
Administrative, e.g. how to master the complex application process
Technological, e.g. types of RES installations and how to choose them
Social, e.g. energy cooperatives
Fact-based information on RES.
Financial, e.g. how to obtain suitable and cheap credits
Administrative, e.g. how to master the complex application process
Technological, e.g. types of RES installations and how to choose them
Social, e.g. energy cooperatives
Fact-based information on RES.
Keywords: Awareness; Renewable Energy Sources; RES; benefits; needs; information; promote RES implementation; assessment; availability of information; public sphere; barriers for RES; five stakeholder groups; quintuple helix; triple helix; innovation; general population.
Major obstacles for implementing renewable energies in Ukraine
by Gilbert Ahamer
Abstract: Within eastern Europe, Ukraine in particular maintains an intense dialogue with the EU and its legal procedures, including the so-called Energy Union.
This article presents an analysis from the viewpoint of two dozen professional Ukrainian interview partners, describing the current situation of implementing renewable energy sources (RES) in Ukraine. This diagnosis hints at the need of all actors for future improvements within all sections and sizes of RES installations, namely small, medium and large installations, and including photovoltaics, wind and biomass. Especially, information on RES in the public domain should be improved.
These diagnoses provide information on how to solve the key obstacles for further RES increase, namely financial, administrative, technological and social obstacles regarding enhanced investment into RES in a former member of the Soviet sphere.
Keywords: energy; energy transition; Ukraine; Energy Union; public information; renewables; RES; renewable energy; Energy Community; NECP; climate targets; efficiency.
Financing Sustainable Development: The Case of Renewable Energies in Tunisia
by Nadia Dridi
Abstract: Investment in renewable energy projects is facing many market barriers and experiencing innumerable obstacles, which has led us to look for new financing methods that are more innovative and more technical in order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional financial intermediation. This suggests to us the importance of financial sector development in promoting the renewable energy sector. For that matter, this paper aims to study the impact of the development of the financial sector on the development of the renewable energy sector in Tunisia. We used annual data from 1980 to 2016. In our empirical study, the variables domestic credit provided to the private sector and financial depth are measures
Keywords: Domestic credit mobilized to the private sector; Financial depth; Production of renewable energies; Cointegration; VECM. rnrn.
Current issues for the Ukrainian power system on its pathway towards energy transition
by Surhii Denysiuk, Yuliia Chernetska
Abstract: Energy systems all over the world are challenged because of the ongoing fundamental transformation driven by the concept of sustainable development; however, policies, societal preferences, emerging and declining technologies, and specifically energy transition pathways differ in each country. The study is dedicated to the energy transition progress in Ukraine with a focus on the relevant power system transformation. It is shown that under the influence of strengthened cooperation with the European Union (EU), Ukraine has made consistent and measurable progress on its energy transition over the past six years. The positive trend in low carbon electricity generation is achieved mainly due to the supporting mechanism of green tariffs; and raising electricity prices as a downside of this process becomes a new pressing issue for the Ukrainian government. Based on a survey of the relevant literature and statistical data, the analysis also uncovers other existing challenges for further progress in the energy transition: (1) understandable but undesirable implementation of the National renewable energy action plan; (2) lack of flexible generation capacities in the Ukrainian power system; (3) availability of massive and expensive infrastructures for traditional energy sources, without enough growing electricity demand; (4) weak competitiveness of electricity produced in Ukraine for complete integration in the EU electricity market. The pointed issues are discussed to help policymakers in updating Ukraines energy transition pathway.
Keywords: energy transition; power system; electricity market; renewables; energy efficiency; greenhouse gas emissions; Ukraine.
Special Issue on: Energy Use Efficiency
Building a prediction model of solar power generation based on improved Grey Markov Chain
by Chongyu Cui, Zhaoxia Li, Junjie Zhang
Abstract: In order to improve the prediction ability and reliability management ability of solar power generation, a solar power generation prediction model based on Improved Grey Markov chain is proposed. The constrained parameter model of solar power generation prediction is established, and the disturbance characteristics of solar power generation are analyzed. On this basis, the improved grey Markov chain model is applied to the big data fusion analysis of solar power generation, and the reliability prediction of solar power generation is realized. The results show that the prediction accuracy of this method is high, up to 1, which improves the quality and stability of output power, and has certain application value.
Keywords: grey Markov chain; solar energy; electricity generation; prediction; charge volatility; Power grid.