Forthcoming and Online First Articles

International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives

International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives (IJFMD)

Forthcoming articles have been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication but are pending final changes, are not yet published and may not appear here in their final order of publication until they are assigned to issues. Therefore, the content conforms to our standards but the presentation (e.g. typesetting and proof-reading) is not necessarily up to the Inderscience standard. Additionally, titles, authors, abstracts and keywords may change before publication. Articles will not be published until the final proofs are validated by their authors.

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International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives (4 papers in press)

Regular Issues

  • How accurate did financial analysts anticipate impact and recovery from the COVID-19 crisis?   Order a copy of this article
    by Peter Kotzian 
    Abstract: This paper analyses how financial analysts perceived the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on European firms and how accurate their perceptions were. Analysts’ earnings estimates initially reacted strongly to the pandemic, expecting sharp drops in earnings. Earnings for 2020 were seen as being affected much more than earnings in 2021. Analysts perceived substantial differences among countries and industries in terms of the pandemic’s economic impact. For some industries, like automobiles, analysts expected a recovery and a catch-up effect in 2021. For others, like tourism, the economic losses of 2020 were seen as lost for good. Tracking earnings estimates shows that analyst’s initial estimates were substantially revised over the course of the pandemic. Comparing estimated and actual earnings indicates that for long periods, analysts’ estimates were in some cases far off the earnings ultimately realised. There is no indication that analysts’ earnings estimates responded to COVID-19-related events or national-level policies.
    Keywords: COVID-19; stock market; earnings estimates; economic recovery; financial analysts.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJFMD.2025.10067551
     
  • No breather for stock market as SVB crisis weighs on sentiment: an event analysis on market returns in the USA   Order a copy of this article
    by Anil Kumar Mohanty, Anup Kumar Roy 
    Abstract: The paper examines the short-term sectoral abnormal return reaction of the Nasdaq sectoral stock market in the USA to the announcement of Silicon Valley Bank collapses. The study took place on 10 March 2023 as an event day. By employing a market model with parametric and non-parametric tests, the empirical analysis found that the abnormal return of the sectors like banking and finance had been hardly affected during the event window period while the abnormal return of the sectors like industrial, telecommunication, transport, insurance, and biotechnology had been slightly affected. Still, the speed of the adjustment is very high. The parametric and non-parametric results found no significant impact of the information on market return on an overall basis. In contrast, we found a highly significant result in the banking and finance sector stocks because the information is related to the collapse of the banking sector.
    Keywords: US bank collapse; sectoral indices; market model; event study; market information; abnormal return; USA.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJFMD.2025.10068374
     
  • A note on Pareto optimality in incomplete markets   Order a copy of this article
    by Christos Kountzakis 
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to show in a detailed way, whether the First Welfare Theorem is valid in the case of Incomplete Markets. The First Welfare Theorem is true, under assumptions that rely on the existence of equilibrium in incomplete Markets and its validity is heavily related to differentiability and strict convexity assumptions for the utility funcitons of the investors. In this paper we show that this frame may be weaker. The assumptions for the utility functions may be weaker and they actually fit the assumptions recently obtained for the existence of equilibrium. However, there is not any exact version of the First Welfare Theorem, relying on a specific model about utility functions and structure of tha markets themselves. This fact actually makes our paper significant.
    Keywords: incomplete markets; welfare in incomplete markets; no-arbitrage; effectively complete markets.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJFMD.2025.10069618
     
  • Empirical analysis of moving averages strategy and buy-and-hold strategy in emerging markets: a comparative study   Order a copy of this article
    by Rangapriya Saivasan, Madhavi Lokhande 
    Abstract: This study is highly relevant as practitioners constantly seek strategies for consistent and optimal returns. It compares the effectiveness of the 'buy-and-hold' strategy with an active trading strategy using 'Exponential Moving Averages' (EMA) and 'Displaced Moving Averages' (DMA). By examining Indian, Brazilian, and Indonesian indices from 2010 to 2022, the study finds that, overall, the buy-and-hold strategy outperforms the active trading strategy based on moving averages (EMA and DMA) across the studied economies. EMA-based strategies never outperformed the buy-and-hold approach, except for a marginal outperformance of DMA-based active trading in India. These results support the efficient market hypothesis, favouring passive investing over active trading with technical analysis. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of moving averages in identifying market turns highlights their value as active tools for monitoring markets and mitigating risks. This research provides essential guidance to investors and practitioners for designing investment strategies and optimizing outcomes.
    Keywords: technical analysis; buy-hold strategy; displaced moving average; DMA; exponential moving averages; EMAs; emerging markets.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJFMD.2025.10070244
     

 

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