International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
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International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (6 papers in press)
Information-driven Roadmapping for Strategic Planning: A case study in a Logistics Company by Mei Na Cheng, Chi Fai Cheung, Chung Yan Wu Abstract: Many companies are facing the problem of fast changing trends in the market which require a huge amount of decisions to be made in order to increase their competitiveness. Roadmapping is one of the well-known approaches for strategy planning. This paper presents an information-driven roadmapping (IDRM) method by incorporating outside-in (i.e. external business environment) and inside-out (i.e. company) perspectives which provide the company certain investigation with environmental monitoring and self-assessment of the capabilities for strategic planning. The proposed IDRM method aims at addressing the market evolution (i.e. ecosystem), business evolution and business/operation model of the selected stakeholders in the ecosystem in macro, meso and micro views, and is also concerned with the implementation of the inside-out roadmapping process for strategic planning. The proposed method was fully implemented in a global logistics company. Keywords: Technology Roadmapping; Information-driven; Strategic Planning; Service Industry; Technology Management. DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2021.10034974
Foresight by scenarios - a literature review by Jhon Wilder Zartha Sossa, Verónica Tatiana Álvarez Ríos, Camilo Andrés Grajales Lopez, Juan Carlos Palacio Piedrahita Abstract: The methods used in foresight studies are analyzed under the approach of recent scenarios and applications, where new methods are evidenced. 66 documents were analyzed through a search equation in Scopus with the help of the software Vantage Point, taking into account criteria such as keywords, countries, methods used and applications; making use of co-occurrence matrices and cluster analysis. 19 new methods, techniques and tools were found, amongst which nano-tendencies, data mining, machine learning, genetic algorithms, and serious games stand out. In the same way, the stages for the construction of scenarios were identified and it was found that they do not fit into a single school or foresight approach. Keywords: Foresight; scenarios; foresight methods; stage management. DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2021.10038192
Windows of Opportunity in Cluster Policy Germanys Leading-Edge Cluster Competition by Michael Rothgang, Bernhard Lageman Abstract: The paper analyses an ambitious experiment in the public promotion of technology clusters: Germanys Leading-Edge Cluster Competition (LECC). This funding programme combined elements of a bottom-up with a top-down selection process and aimed to identify windows of opportunity for public intervention in the cluster development process. Our analysis is based on an external observers perspective of the evolu-tionary potential of the selected 15 Leading-Edge Clusters (LECs). The observed constellations of factors that potentially influence development perspectives in the individual LECs assumed windows of oppor-tunity differ substantially. We observe complex mixtures of technological, market, political and societal influences, but also cluster-specific idiosyncratic factors. Although it is at present too early to assess the long-term impact of the programme on high-tech sectors in Germany, our analysis was successful in iden-tifying some promising starting points for technology cluster promotion. The analysis indicates that the time dimension and the related question about possible windows of opportunity is highly relevant for the pro-gramme impulse of modern complex innovation policy measures in general. Keywords: Windows of Opportunity; R&D Management; Cluster Policy; Regional Development; Cluster Development.
SYNOPTICS, Part VIII: Application of the Organizational Model of Synoptics with regard to Companies, Territorial Compounds and Functional Compounds by Herbert Rauch Abstract: Companies, villages and healthcare systems are all social systems, which function via indirect interaction: That means person A reaches out to person C by some kind of communication via person B. This chain can become very large, a pyramid with up to 14 echelons are to be observed (e.g., the Catholic church, military apparatuses). In the case of companies Keywords: synoptics method; social analysis; hypotheses; companies; villages; healthcare systems; territorial compounds; functional compounds. DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2021.10039007
Decomposing the temporal variation in the business-sector private R&D intensity by Juan Fernández-Sastre, John Cajas-Guijarro, Wilson Pérez Abstract: This paper decomposes the temporal variation in the business-sector R&D intensity, specifically the part of it that is financed through private resources, into the following components: changes in firm characteristics, changes in firm-specific R&D investment policies, changes in the external financing of R&D and changes in firm-specific policies related to supplementing or replacing the latter with private resources. This decomposition is obtained through a two-step approach: (a) we estimate micro-econometric models that describe the relationship between R&D intensity and external financing using a methodology based on Vella (1993) to control for selection bias; (b) those micro-econometric models are used to estimate the threefold algebraic decomposition proposed by Jann (2008) which improves Blinder-Oaxaca usual twofold decomposition. Our results suggest that the variation in the business-sector R&D intensity is affected more by changes in firm-specific investment policies than by changes in firm characteristics. On the other hand, changes in external financing and in firm-specific policies related to supplementing or replacing external financing have major effects on the temporal variation in the R&D intensity. Although several of these effects are found to be individually significant, our results show that, overall, (except for the period 2008-2013) there were no significant variations in the estimated value of the business-sector private R&D intensity, since the effects of each of its components balance each other out. Keywords: R&D intensity; business sector; innovation policies; selection bias; “threefold” decomposition.
Special Issue on: Foreseeing and Designing Intercultural Dialogic Sustainability Policies
Individual and Societal Learning Allow Globally Financed Developmental Cooperation by Gilbert Ahamer Abstract: The goal of this article is to perceive and understand environment-related activities of international financial institutions (IFIs) as part of a societal learning process, and consequently to describe their environmental and social project quality criteria as an expression of such ongoing societal learning processes.
What can our readership, likely to be related also to higher education and lifelong learning, profit from such a comparison? Against the authors ini-tial expectation, IFIs are starting to become efficient at redirecting global funds to climate and environmental projects and have thus performed a successful act of societal learning.
The environmental and social project quality criteria have played a crucial role in convincing economic and administrative actors (i.e., learn-ers in our context) to behave in a climate-compatible manner. Thus, the lesson can be drawn from the domain of societal learning to the do-main of individual learning that clear and transparent criteria sets are decisive for a rule-based societal transformation. This case study shows that a criteria-based selection process provides the best results for long-term societal interest; in this case climate protection. Keywords: collective learning; societal learning; global learning; rule-based society; criteria-based decisions; global warming mitigation; global warming adaptation; International Financial Organisations; IFIs; infrastructure projects; Central Asia; environmental quality criteria; social quality criteria.