International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (7 papers in press)

Regular Issues

• Futures of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, including Computer Science (STEM/CS) Education: What will the crossroad with Liberal Arts look like?  
  by Lionel Henderson, Gareth Lewis 
  Abstract: Liberal arts education is under attack with pressure to downsize faculty and programs. Their future existence is questionable, in part driven by the priority of science, technology, engineering and mathematics, including computer science (STEM/CS) education as evidenced by stakeholder decisions. Despite the abundance of publications in engineering education, solutions are lacking to successfully integrate diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging (DEIB) in programs and institutions to support female and minority students. This paper argues for the inclusion of liberal arts programs in STEM/CS curriculum to integrate DEIB and develop graduates for the future of work and the need for successful integration of DEIB at the faculty and institutional level (i.e., leading by example) before evidence of successful integration can be made with students. The Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) Accreditation for Higher Education Programs (AHEP) 4 requirements is further evidence of change and accreditation bodies, and higher education institutes (HEIs) must think long term to integrate DEIB in STEM/CS programs. Several research questions are developed towards the futures of the IET’s 200th anniversary in 2071. Foresight exercises are recommended to ensure appropriate institutional policies are developed and actioned given the current lack of solutions.
  Keywords: accreditation; backcasting; diversity; equity; inclusion and belonging; DEIB; higher education institutes; HEI; engineering education; foresight; futures studies.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2023.10054749
   
  
• Strategic foresight for competitive advantage: A future-oriented business and competitive analysis techniques selection model  
  by Jari Kaivo-oja, Steffen Roth 
  Abstract: In this article, we develop a strategic foresight techniques selection model. To this end, we build on the classical FAROUT assessment of business and competitive analysis (BCA) techniques, which we extend and redesign to allow for context- and purpose-specific selections of BCA techniques that combine robust future-orientation with one or all other FAROUT criteria: accuracy, resource efficiency, objectivity, usefulness, and timeliness. The results of this approach are informative for decision-makers who wish to make systemic and context-specific choices among the existing BCA techniques. Our research thus contributes to the systematization and further development of strategic foresight methodology.
  Keywords: strategic foresight; technology forecasting; business intelligence; competitive analysis; BCA techniques selection; FAROUT.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2023.10057641
   
  

Special Issue on: Foreseeing and Designing Intercultural Dialogic Sustainability Policies

• The Hegemony in Artificial Intelligence Technology: A Depiction Through Patent Analysis  
  by Adityo Wicaksono, Tommy Hendrix 
  Abstract: In the recent decade, AI technology has proliferated into many industry sectors and formed a hegemony pushed by dominant actors. It has become an attractive phenomenon to study, as it significantly influences civilisation’s current and future development. This study explores the hegemony in AI technology and provides a detailed map of contemporary development through a patent analysis approach. As a result, three significant findings are being highlighted. Firstly, the main hegemons of AI technology are uncovered; they are major tech companies in the USA and China. Secondly, four AI trajectories are identified, including pattern recognition, digital computing, administration, and computer system. Thirdly, six emergent themes of AI technology are listed, covering machine learning, natural language, deep learning, big data, neural network, and reality. Overall, this study extends the understanding of hegemony in terms of technology in which a dominant country exerts its power through patent strategy. It also maps how far AI technology has expanded in the current hegemony. As a practical implication, this depiction could give the AI-related industry players a hint to determine what to catch up on.
  Keywords: artificial intelligence; hegemony; technology advancement; trajectory; patent analysis.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2022.10051914
   
  
• Actual strategic directions for the development of Russian fuel and energy companies to ensure the country's economic security  
  by Mariya Bulatenko, Nataliia Tarasova, Alla Dyhova, Anzhela Mikaeva, Konstantin Reznik 
  Abstract: The state course to develop competitive energy markets and decentralisation creates a broad yet strategic diversity of possibilities for fuel and energy companies. This study identified strategic directions for the development of enterprises in the Russian energy industries by using semantic analysis of the content of the Russian Energy Strategy, and development strategies for seven key enterprises in the Russian energy complex. Semantic analysis data were visualised using a word cloud, and keywords featured with high frequency as substantive parts of the strategies were extracted. Overall, Russian fuel and energy companies declare their refusal to develop extensively, which is confirmed by the semantic core of all the energy companies under consideration:
  Keywords: fuel; energy; energy industry; strategy; petroleum; fossil fuels; carbon; energy strategy; semantic analysis.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2023.10055218
   
  
• Size does matter: South Africa's automotive industry during and post the COVID-19 pandemic  
  by Fabian Hoeft 
  Abstract: The South African automotive industry is relevant globally as it supplies the local market and other European countries. The automotive industry in the country is experiencing disruption and is transitioning in different forms. This paper aims to explore the South African automotive market, focusing on the role of car manufacturers. Therefore, it investigates market characteristics, automotive sales and distribution, vehicle electrification and environmental sustainability, the implications of black empowerment for car manufacturers, and competitive dynamics in the South African automotive market. One issue car manufacturers face in the country is the need for market size. Export dependency is particularly challenging in times of a global pandemic.
  Keywords: South Africa; sustainability policy; globalisation; automotive industry; production networks.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2023.10057740
   
  
• Individual and Societal Learning Allow Globally Financed Developmental Cooperation  
  by Gilbert Ahamer 
  Abstract: The goal of this article is to perceive and understand environment-related activities of international financial institutions (IFIs) as part of a societal learning process, and consequently to describe their environmental and social project quality criteria as an expression of such ongoing societal learning processes. What can our readership, likely to be related also to higher education and lifelong learning, profit from such a comparison? Against the authors ini-tial expectation, IFIs are starting to become efficient at redirecting global funds to climate and environmental projects and have thus performed a successful act of societal learning. The environmental and social project quality criteria have played a crucial role in convincing economic and administrative actors (i.e., learn-ers in our context) to behave in a climate-compatible manner. Thus, the lesson can be drawn from the domain of societal learning to the do-main of individual learning that clear and transparent criteria sets are decisive for a rule-based societal transformation. This case study shows that a criteria-based selection process provides the best results for long-term societal interest; in this case climate protection.
  Keywords: collective learning; societal learning; global learning; rule-based society; criteria-based decisions; global warming mitigation; global warming adaptation; International Financial Organisations; IFIs; infrastructure projects; Central Asia; environmental quality criteria; social quality criteria.
  
  
• Citizenship Education in World Risk Society: an Evolutionary perspective  
  by Van Nguyen 
  Abstract: Despite being the three main world views shaping global citizenship education (GCE) methods, the neoliberal, humanistic and critical world views all have important drawbacks. This paper attempts to address those drawbacks by constructing the evolutionary world view from established knowledge in biology, psychology, as well as findings from the social sciences. The evolutionary world view explains the conditions of risks our global society is facing. It also demonstrates how evolutionary mechanisms of human cooperation underpin the concept of citizenship/citizenship education. Such world view enables the reconceptualisation of GCE as the study of global scale human cooperation in response to global risks and calls for further investigation into alternative methods for citizenship education.
  Keywords: global citizenship education; risk society; human cooperation; cultural evolution; game theory; trade-off.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2022.10051703