International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies (69 papers in press)
The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Southern African Custom Union: A panel ARDL Approach
by Nkosinathi Emmanuel Monamodi, Ireen Choga
Abstract: This study investigates the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in (SACU) economies between 1980 and 2017. Panel auto regression distributed lags (PARDLs) estimation technique and Pooled mean group (PMG) estimator were utilised in this study. The results indicate that these policies influence economic growth significantly across SACU economics in the long run. However, fiscal policy is only significant if government expenditure is used as the functional policy instrument rather than government revenue. The short run effects of these macroeconomic policies are mixed. Granger causality results indicate that the direction of cointegration is from government, real interest rate, inflation and official exchange rate to economic growth
Keywords: economic growth; fiscal policy; monetary policy; panel auto regression distributed lag; PARDL; Southern African Custom Union; SACU; pooled mean group; PMG.
Brexit aftermath a lot of fuss over nothing? The perspective of the EU-27 member states
by Katarzyna Mroczek-Dąbrowska, Anna Matysek-Jędrych
Abstract: The uncertainty of the post-Brexit relations between the UK and the
remaining EU-27 countries has caused political and economic concerns (Kroll and Leuffen, 2016). The ongoing negotiations concerning future relations cover various scenarios that may have different impacts on the individual economies in both an economic and a political sense. The article analyses consequences of the British voters decision to withdraw from the European Union through the lens of a disintegration process and its main objective is to identify the scale and the nature of individual countries vulnerability toward Brexit. It demonstrates purely economic approach to the critical assessment of Brexit, with focus on building rankings of losers. In this way, we contribute to the ongoing debate on the Brexit negotiation process by providing strong arguments in favour of certain policy decisions. In line with the neighbour country hypothesis and small country hypothesis, we assume that small economies will experience moderate to high negative consequences of Brexit, while larger ones will not be affected as much, having regard, however, to the countrys location in relation to the UK.
Keywords: Brexit; European integration; European Union; UK; vulnerability.
Measuring stock market volatility a study in India perspective
by Jitendra Kumar Dixit, Vivek Agrawal, Sucheta Agarwal
Abstract: Volatility is the inherent characteristics of stock market. The presence of the volatility provides an opportunity to earn unexpected profits by risk seeker investors and becomes a matter of diffidence among risk averse as high risk is anticipated with high return during the period of high volatility. Informed investors consider market volatility while making investment decision. Volatility is reflected due to uncertainty in stock return and price and unexpected events that can be measure through the GARCH family models. Analysis is performed on daily closing value of NSE and BSE from 1 April, 2011 to 31 March, 2019, extracted through the online-portal of BSE (bseindia.com) and NSE (nseindia.com) for the purpose of present analysis. The output of the current study confers the acceptance of E-GARCH model for the purpose of predicting and forecasting the market volatility.
Keywords: volatility; variance; GARCH; P-GARCH.
Kinked economic growth: insights from gender lens
by Supreet Kaur, Satinder Kumar
Abstract: The long-standing cultural customs and theories of gender imbalance posit that widening gender gaps can dampen the growth prospects of a nation. The present study traces the reasons behind persisting meta-son preferences that contribute towards skewed sex ratios and the impact of such stormy preferences on the economic growth of the nation. To substantiate the same, data is used from the fourth wave of the National Family and Health Survey conducted in 20152016, Economic survey, 2018 and Gender Gap index 2018. The responses were gathered with the help of semi-structured personal interview conducted in the southeastern region of Punjab, India. Using IPA, the study found that meta-son preferences will lead to privation of human capital thereby limiting productive capacities. The study will be an insight especially for the Punjab government officials for setting up of future policies to counter the same. Applying these findings will help eradicate the post natal discrimination.
Keywords: gender gap; missing women; sex-selective abortions; meta-son preferences; interpretative phenomenological analysis; skewed ratios; economic growth.
Asymmetric price transmission of Indonesian, Thailand, and the Philippines canned tuna to the European market
by Puspi Eko Wiranthi
Abstract: Although Thailand and the Philippines have dominated the canned tuna market, Indonesia indicates an upward export value to the EU. Data revealed that there were differences in the speed of price adjustments between the three countries and there was an indication that Indonesia responded more quickly to changes of Thailand and the Philippines prices over the past few years. Therefore, in this study, the causality price relationship is examined by employing monthly data from January 2008 until September 2018. Asymmetric error correction model (AECM) was performed through the E-Views 10 statistical package to analyse a short and long term price transmission. The
results indicate that the canned tuna export prices from the three exporting countries are well cointegrated. The short-term price transmission of Thailand and the Philippines has an asymmetrical influence on an increase of Indonesian prices while the long-term price transmission between three countries occurs symmetrically.
Keywords: market integration; price transmission; canned tuna; Indonesia; Thailand; The Philippines; AECM.
Agency creation as an instrument of rent-seeking in South Sudan
by James Alic Garang
Abstract: The paper, analysing secondary data and case studies of select events, focuses on instruments that economic agents have used to extract rents from the state in South Sudan. Invoking a simplified conceptual framework nested in the rent-seeking theory, it finds that agency creation, a profound penchant to form new institutions, was not confined but widespread across the government in the period 20052016. In furthering the agency creation hypothesis, the paper argues that institutional weaknesses, mostly in the public sector, and oil bonanza have enabled economic actors to bring about innovations in the rent-seeking market in which individual agents, including importers, well-connected elites and members of public created or chose existing government agencies as instruments to capture rents. The paper concludes by urging more vigilance in addressing agency creation or shopping, either of which is more pronounced where institutions are weak, with resource abundance creating opportunities for rent-seeking.
Keywords: South Sudan; agency creation; agency shopping; letter of credit; Dura scheme; crisis management committee; CMC; market imperfections.
Analysing the impact of oil capital on economic growth in West Asia and North African countries
by Mushtaq Ahmad Malik, Tariq Masood
Abstract: Most countries of West Asia and North Africa (WANA) are dependent directly or indirectly on oil resources to fuel growth. There are apprehensions as to whether oil-capital has benefited these countries and their economic growth. The present research seeks to investigate the association between the dependence on oil resources and economic growth of WANA countries from 1970 through 2016. We used the share of fuel exports in total merchandise exports as a proxy for resource dependence. Furthermore, we incorporate measures of institutional quality, terms of trade, and investment as control variables to evaluate if resource dependence impacts growth differently. The empirical investigation found the existence of paradox of plenty or resource curse effect. Both cross-country ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) regressions strongly confirm the hypothesis of a negative relationship between fuel exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports and real per capita GDP growth. These results remain robust after controlling for institutional quality, terms of trade, and investment.
Keywords: oil resources; economic growth; resource curse; fuel exports; trade; institutions; WANA countries.
Exploring the transmission and determinants of volatility shocks in emerging South-Asian markets.
by Pranab K. Pani, Hameedah Sayani
Abstract: The transmission of volatility shocks in two prominent South Asian markets is analysed to identify whether shocks in these markets overlap and are associated with any global or national events. This study attempts to provide an insight into the interdependence between these markets and their interaction with the US market. The data is analysed using multiple methods. First, the iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm is employed to determine shocks in the returns series and then examined to understand their domestic/global scope. A modified version of GARCH (1, 1), is used to determine the impact of events on volatility persistence. The study reveals that the shocks in important stock indices associate mostly with country-specific or regional political and/or economic events. The assimilation of shocks in the GARCH (1, 1) model improves the volatility measures only in two of the candidate markets.
Keywords: BSE30; KSE100; ICSS algorithm; emerging market; GARCH (1; 1); break points; stock exchange; South-Asian markets; volatility shocks.
Construction activity and economic growth: what follows what? Evidence from India.
by Rochna Arora, Baljit Kaur
Abstract: Construction sector holds a meaty place among all sectors of the economy. The importance of construction sector stems from its promise of strong linkages (both backward as well as forward) with other sectors of the economy. Of all, effect on employment is highly crucial for labour-intensive economy like that of ours. To study which economic variable precedes the other, data are collected on economic variables of gross domestic product and GDP from construction activity for the period running from 19912017. The results from long-run causality worked out using Granger test points to long-run causality from construction activity and employment to economic growth and from growth and employment to construction activity. While the short-run causal results which are worked out using Wald test gives evidence in favour unidirectional causality from economic growth to construction activity; employment to economic growth and employment to construction growth.
Keywords: construction; economic growth; employment; causality; India.
Tax evasion and economic growth in the EU
by Jana Stavjaňová, Leoš Vítek
Abstract: The aim of this study is to verify the presence of a negative link between the size of tax evasion and economic growth and whether this possible link is stronger in the countries with higher taxation. Based on the EU 28 data and the period 20032014, the results of regression analysis of panel data in all the relevant models are indeed indicative of a negative impact of tax evasion on the economy. We did not confirm the hypothesis that there are differences in the impact of tax evasion on the economy between the more resp. less taxed countries. The group of Northern European countries with higher tax quota reports its negative regression coefficient lower than Central European countries. However, when we compare the results of countries with higher tax quota with those of Eastern Europe where average tax quota is low, we do not reach the same conclusion.
Keywords: tax evasion; shadow economy; economic growth; EU countries.
Reliability and credibility of credit rating an evidence from Indian CRAs
by Manisha Kumari, V. Mary Jessica
Abstract: The quality of rating given by the credit rating agencies (CRAs) have been questioned for a long time and also criticised for the same. Mandatory bond rating and financing of 25% capital through bond motivates to carry out this study. The objective of this paper is to examine the reliability of rating given by CRAs by predicting the rating through market-based information. An ordered probit model is used to predict the rating. The sample consists of BSE500 firms from 2014 to 2019, extracted from the ProwessIQ CMIE database. The Results show that issuers in India have been enjoying a
very high rating compared to firms in the USA, and the difference between predicted ratings and actual rating given by CRAs is more in India. As per Result, the actual rating is high compared to predicted ratings. The implication of the study suggests that regulators need to tighten the functioning and working process of CRAs. This will help in strengthening the weak bon market of India.
Keywords: bond rating; risk; reliability; default; credibility; accuracy.
Flight for greener pastures: a look into international migration of Indian students.
by Anjali Mehra, Tanveen Kaur
Abstract: India stands second in the world after China, where the number of students from India moving to other countries for higher studies is concerned. In the last fourteen years the number of children being sent from India has increased four times. The present study found that main recipient countries for Indian students migrating for higher education are USA, UK, Canada and Australia and the major programmes preferred are related to STEM, psychology, entertainment, etc. Burning desire for high paying jobs; better standard of living and demonstration effect, widened scope of research, liberal
immigration policies are the pull factors which combined with the push factors like increased competition for admissions in higher education institutions of India and exorbitant fees charged by them have resulted in increased incidence of this phenomenon.
Keywords: migration; international mobile students; higher education; foreign institutions.
Human capital development and economic growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa countries using a novel panel data analysis.
by Wondesen Teshome Bekele, Fekadu Gelaw Mersha
Abstract: There has been increased recognition on the important role of human capital development for tackling the core welfare problems such as poverty, unemployment, and inequality. This motivated Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries to aggressively expand of education over the past decades. This study examined the interdependence between human capital development and economic growth of 36 SSA countries using annual data from 1980 to 2017. A dynamic common correlated effects estimator that overcome the econometric grumblers that are common in cross-country studies. The coefficients of lagged economic growth, capital stock and human capital in the economic growth
model had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while the lagged economic growth in the growth rate model had a negative effect indicating conditional convergence. Moreover, human capital was found to enhance economic growth rate more than capital stock. Thus, the SSA countries should invest on human capital development by expanding education.
Keywords: economic growth; human capital development; HCD; panel data; dynamic common correlated effect; DCCE; Sub-Saharan Africa; SSA.
The tremendous household debt in Asia Pacific countries: is it determined by financial development?
by Suhal Kusairi, Nur Azura Sanusi, Ali Muktiyanto
Abstract: Since the early twentieth century, the tremendous increase in household debt has motivated researchers to find the determinant factors of this phenomenon. The paper uses data from Asia Pacific countries and dynamic heterogeneous panel method analysis to determine factors of household debt. The results find that financial development and financial institution access have a long-run positive relationship, stable and convergent with household debt. This implies that as the financial system developed, as seen by easy access to financial institutions, this offered some attractive financial instruments and the financial markets became spreads broader, causing household debt to increase because of the easier access to financing and credit facilities matching peoples needs. However, in the short run, financial development and financial institution access do not strongly affect household debt of countries overall. Also, the real interest rate and housing price have a positive impact, and stock capital accumulation and household consumption harm household debt in the long run. Therefore supervision of the volatility of household debt and financial development are important for sustainable economic growth.
Keywords: household debt; financial development; financial institutions; financial market access; housing price.
Entrepreneurship promotion as a tool to counter youth emigration
by Aurelija Petronyte, Aurelija Ulbinaite
Abstract: Purpose of the research is to assess the relationship between youth participation in entrepreneurship promotion initiatives, entrepreneurship, and emigration attitudes. The quantitative test method presented in the article consists of three key parts that have their specifics of evaluation and different methodologies. This method has been used to better understand the similarities and differences between the general global trends and the processes taking place in Lithuania; in terms of youth entrepreneurship, emigration attitudes, and entrepreneurship promotion. A study conducted in the fifth largest regions of Lithuania, which has the highest youth unemployment, i.e., Utena Region, did not show a correlation between the analysed elements. The lack of a correlation suggests that while promoting entrepreneurship is a prerequisite for higher entrepreneurship, higher levels of knowledge may not always lead to a greater willingness to start a business.
Keywords: youth; entrepreneurship; emigration intentions; correlation; entrepreneurship promotion; employment; entrepreneurship intentions questionnaire.
Measuring employee engagement for sustainable e-government projects Indian context
by Jyoti Yadav, Anil K. Saini, Amit Kumar Yadav
Abstract: Digital era has completely transformed interaction between government and its stakeholders by enhancing transparency, efficiency and reliability in ecosystem. Employees role is very crucial and inimitable in ensuring smooth operations of such high aiming projects. The purpose of study is to identify and analyse crucial factors from socio technical aspect for sustainability of e-government projects. The factors have been identified using existing literature and interviews conducted from audit agencies. An algorithm and model have been developed and validated using dataset of 600 respondents. The data consist of sample having good mix of government and private employees with varied experience. The results have been statistically analysed and interpreted using regression. The findings have revealed that significance of factors varies based on various stages, experience and category of employees. The model prepared could help decision makers in deriving meaningful insights and measures which could be taken during various stages of project.
Keywords: e-government; mission mode projects; MMP projects; public private partnership; PPP model; employee perspective approach; EPA; developing countries.
The Chinese consumption myth
by Kerry Liu
Abstract: Whether Chinese consumption is downgrading or upgrading has been the subject of recent debate. This study begins with a review of different types of consumption data, including gross domestic product data, household survey data and retail sale data, and concludes that Chinese household consumption expenditure growth has been slowing since 2011. Next, the factors that contribute to consumption growth, consumption upgrade, and consumption downgrade are analysed. The main findings are that disposable income plays a significant role in consumption growth; that wealth effects from the real estate market play a significant role in consumption upgrade; and that increasing rent has significantly contributed to the consumption downgrade. Finally, this study discusses policy implications based on findings from this study, especially with respect to the real estate market.
Keywords: Chinese consumption; consumption upgrade; real estate market; consumption downgrade.
Legislative framework to tackle non-performing assets in India: law and economic analysis
by Hiteshkumar Thakkar, Gaurang Rami, Pratik Parashar Sarmah
Abstract: India has been taking steps to tackle the problem of non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans. The paper has tried to analyse the process from a breach of contract point of view. Game theory is used to understand the process wherein the asset is placed with the debtor, who can either cooperate or appropriate. The study focuses on the problems of bad loans and to ascertain in
which sector-specific banks (public sector bank, private sector bank and foreign bank), it is significantly higher. It further narrows down the problem of bad loans in sub-sectors (priority sector, non-priority sector and public sector). Though there are various legislative framework to tackle non-performing assets, this paper stresses the effectiveness of Lok Adalats, debt recovery tribunals (DRTs), and Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002 (SARFAESI Act) based on time series data, by putting forth trend regression analysis.
Keywords: non-performing assets; NPAs; bad loans; breach of contract; legislative framework; Lok Adalats; SARFAESI Act; debt recovery tribunals; DRTs; India.
The mean willingness-to-pay for smoking cessation treatment in Malaysia
by Chuah Seong Jin, Norashidah Mohamed Nor, Zaiton Samdin, Emilia Zaina Abidin
Abstract: This research aims to estimate the mean willingness-to-pay (WTP) for smoking cessation treatment among smokers in Malaysia. We analysed individual smokers WTP based on questionnaires distributed to current smokers above 18 years of age. The mean WTP was measured using the contingent valuation method incorporating double-bounded questions and logistic regression analysis. The mean WTP (weekly) for the three proposed therapies, namely: nicotine patches, bupropion and varenicline were RM41.21, RM28.78 and RM35.74, respectively, these values were 67.03%, 28.05%, and 45.01% lower than the current market prices for the treatments, respectively. Therefore, this study indicates that a subsidy for smoking cessation treatments is necessary and that the awareness of the available smoking cessation treatments could be raised, to increase the quit rate from smoking.
Keywords: willingness-to-pay; WTP; smoking cessation treatment; contingent valuation method; CVM; logistic regression; double-bounded; nicotine patch; bupropion; varenicline; therapy; tobacco; Malaysia.
The crime rate and income inequality in Brazil: a nonlinear ARDL approach
by Lim Thye Goh, Siong Hook Law
Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the crime rate and income inequality for Brazil using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Our result suggests that the crime rate and income inequality are significantly cointegrated. Besides, the NARDL model affirms the presence of asymmetric behaviour between the crime rate and income inequality. More specifically, in the long run, reduced income inequality will lead to a decrease in the crime rate with a greater deviation, whereas an increase in income inequality tends to lead to an increase in the crime rate with a lower deviation. Therefore, the crime rate responds more to negative changes than to positive changes in the level of income inequality.
Keywords: crime rate; income inequality; nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag; NARDL.
Demographics and financial risk tolerance among investors of Punjab: an empirical analysis
by Anu Sahi
Abstract: This study empirically examined the relationship between demographics and financial risk tolerance of investors and to check, whether investors can be categorised into risk tolerance categories, named as risk takers and risk averse using demographics. A single cross-sectional primary survey conducted on 151 investors with varied level of investment experience and demographic features. The dependent variable financial risk tolerance has been measured using seven-point Likert scale and the independent variables were measured on nominal and ordinal scale. The relationship between the variables were analysed using univariate and multivariate analysis techniques. Results
revealed that age and family income have significant relation with financial risk tolerance of individual investors. Application of logistic regression unravel that demographic features can be used for categorising investors as risk takers or risk averse.
Keywords: risk; tolerance; financial; index; financial risk tolerance; FRT; age; demographics; family income; Punjab; India.
Empirical study of velocity of money in India trends and its implications
by Abhinav Singh
Abstract: In this paper, empirical study of quarterly velocity of money for the Indian economy was carried out for the period spanning from 2004 to 2014. The study establishes that the velocity of money is highly predictable and is dependent on certain macro-economic factors such as interest rates, cash-deposit ratio and GDP. We found a stable velocity trend which affirms the indirect transmission of money in the economy. These findings are significant as money stocks growth projection is an important intermediate goal for Reserve Bank of India to effectively implement the framework of flexible inflation targeting. In this paper, we have also studied the behaviour of cash-deposit ratio and found that it follows a random-walk model.
Keywords: velocity of money; cash-deposit ratio; transmission of money; seasonality; cyclicity; trends; random walk model; flexible inflation targeting; India.
Impacts of restrictions on capital flows: an ARDL and local projections approaches
by Chokri Zehri
Abstract: The literature on impacts of restrictions on capital flows (ROCF) has many serious issues that make it difficult, if not impossible, to compare across theoretical and empirical studies. The paper revisits our earlier study Capital controls impacts: the challenge of policy coordination by using a sample of 32 emerging economies (EEs) for the period 2000 to 2018. Two new approaches are followed, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and the local projections regression with impulse response functions. The study identifies the periods of ROCF and investigates whether ROCF affect domestic interest rate, exchange rate, and foreign exchange reserves. The results show that tighten ROCF allow to higher domestic interest rate, a more flexible
exchange rate policy, and favour the hold of foreign exchange reserves. The study highlights some adverse effects of ROCF, particularly, the negative spillovers to neighbouring countries.
Keywords: restrictions; flows; interest rate; flexible exchange; reserves.
An investigation of the macroeconomic determinants of household debt in Lesotho: evidence from principal components and the ARDL approach
by Moeti Damane
Abstract: This paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag model, principal component analysis and annual time series data from 1980 to 2016 to investigate the relationship between household debt, gross domestic product, household consumption, consumer price index, lending rate, and unemployment rate in Lesotho. Results reveal existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between household debt and other macrovariables.
There is proof of the life cycle hypothesis in Lesotho. Authorities are encouraged to rein in household debt, especially during economic booms through proper regulation of lending and borrowing practices while also exploring measures to curtail joblessness
Keywords: Lesotho; household debt; economic growth; principal component analysis; PCA; error correction.
Dimensions of globalisation and economic growth of India: exploring causal linkages
by Balraj Verma, Amit Srivastava
Abstract: After experiencing more than two decades of the era of globalisation, it is pertinent to test the influence of the globalisation dimensions (namely trade, financial, cultural, interpersonal, informational and political) on the Indian economic growth. The present study not only tests but also tries to explore the causal linkages between dimensions of globalisation and the economic growth in context to India. The study applies Johansen cointegration test and VAR/VECM for finding out the cointegration and causal linkages. To ascertain the robustness, the study also performs residual tests for normality, serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. The result shows the long-run convergence between the globalisations dimensions and Indias economic growth. All the six dimensions of globalisation showed long-run convergence and short-run multivariate causality with Indian economic growth. Financial globalisation showed bi-directional causality with GDP. Also, the study established a unidirectional causal effect of GDP towards trade, information and interpersonal globalisation in the long-run.
Keywords: : globalisation; economic growth; KOF Globalization Index; cointegration; vector autoregressive; VAR; vector error correction model; VECM; Granger causality; stationarity; India.
Attitude of beneficiaries towards financial literacy initiatives taken up by private sector banks for sustainable development with special reference to Rajasthan
by Harsh Purohit, Pawandeep Kaur Bindra
Abstract: This study attempts to assess the impact of private sector banks (ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank) initiatives for teaching their beneficiaries about retirement and insurance planning, estate planning, alternative channels of banking, promotional mediums and their ability to save. As these five were components of financial literacy. The data collection instrument consisted of structured questionnaire. Five factors were identified through exploratory factor analysis. This study surveys 531 beneficiaries from four different districts of Rajasthan. The study found there is significant positive impact of initiatives taken by private sector banks for increasing savings, retirement and insurance planning of individuals and their ability to save and their ability to make retirement and insurance planning. Medium correlations were found between promotional measures taken by banks and understanding of beneficiaries about financial services and products. As far as the Estate planning is concerned beneficiaries were not satisfied with initiatives taken up by the banks. It was observed from the study that there is significant positive impact of initiatives taken up by banks for teaching about alternative of channels of banking and understanding about these channels by beneficiaries.
Keywords: retirement and insurance planning; promotional mediums; financial literacy; sustainable development; private sector banks; savings; Rajasthan.
Financial development and economic growth: the inflation threshold effect
by Zahra Khalilnejad, Raha Gharraie
Abstract: Although financial development seems to have a vital positive impact on the economic growth, some studies indicate that the ability of the financial sector to allocate resources efficiently depends on the inflation rate. The main object of this paper is to investigate whether the inflation threshold effect has any impact on the relationship between financial development and the economic growth, applying TAR model for a group of MENA countries. The results reveal two inflationary regimes in Egypt, Morocco, and Iran and three in Algeria. Afterwards, the effect of financial development on economic growth for each inflationary regime is estimated using nonlinear models. The Findings imply that, unlike low inflation periods, in high inflation regimes, financial development has either no significant or a destructive impact on the growth rate. The findings support the view that for countries experiencing relatively high inflation rates, pursuing financial reform would not lead to economic growth.
Keywords: financial development; inflation; threshold model; Growth Model.
The impact of international transport corridors on the economic development of regions (on the example of the Kazakhstani railway corridor)
by Zhanarys Sabirovich Raimbekov, Bakyt Uzakbayevna Syzdykbayeva, Kamshat Pazilbekovna Mussina, Zhanar Abdirayevna Dulatbekova, Bekzhan Yerlanovich Sadykov, Assem Serikovna Baktymbet
Abstract: Transport corridors are subject to risks from the ambiguity of such a key conceptual issue as the influence of transport corridors on the development of the economies of the regions located along them. This empirical study establishes an interactive statistical relationship between indicators of the international transport corridor development, which runs through certain regions of the country, and the economic development of these regions. Multidimensional regression analysis is used to determine the significant economic factors affecting the development of the transport corridor, as well as determining the indicators of the transport corridor that affect the development of the regional economy. The established relationships and factors that reflect the interdependence of indicators of socio-economic development of the region and the infrastructure of the international transport corridor can have a
significant impact on economic growth and bilateral development, which must be taken into account when planning investment and transport policies.
Keywords: international transport corridor; transport infrastructure; economic growth; econometric model; economic influence; regional development.
The effect of a currency board arrangement on subjective assessments of a countrys economic performance
by Selena Begović, Nick Adnett, Geoff Pugh
Abstract: We present a novel approach to evaluating the effect of a monetary-exchange rate regime on economic performance, focusing on countries with a currency board arrangement (CBA). This approach is designed to evaluate the impact of the regime on the perceptions and expectations of a population. We utilise seemingly unrelated regressions to analyse data from large-sample surveys conducted by the Austrian National Bank over the period 20072016 in ten European transition economies. The analysis indicates that the probability of the economic situation in a country being perceived as good by its citizens is lower in countries with a currency board arrangement. However, this negative effect almost disappears among respondents who do not trust their government and when there is a significant recession in the country. These findings suggest that a CBA should be maintained for its stabilising effects: 1) when the economic situation is unfavourable, although it might not be beneficial once the situation is stabilised; 2) in countries with low levels of trust in government.
Keywords: currency board arrangement; CBA; perceptions; expectations; European transition countries.
Financial sustainability of a health micro-insurance scheme: a theoretical investigation
by Souvik Dasgupta, Amit Kundu
Abstract: The article attempts to outline a business model of a for-profit insurance firm initiating a health micro-insurance (MHI) scheme and investigates whether it can sustain financially in that endeavour. We show that when firm cannot observe and monitor the effort taken by beneficiaries in prevention, the presence of a nodal agency (any voluntary local organisation like NGO) is very crucial in maintaining the financial sustainability of the scheme. If the individual claims are independent and identically distributed, under certain conditions the level of expected claims is decreasing in NGOs effort level. The firm can set a lower risk-loading with the higher monitoring effort of the NGO.
Keywords: micro-insurance of health; moral hazard; nodal agency; risk loading; financial sustainability; monitoring; compensation.
Economic growth modelling by technological shifts: a case of ICT/R&D-bound economic policy
by Oleg Borisovich Pichkov, Dmitry Dmitrievich Krykanov, Kseniia Andreevna Patrunina
Abstract: The article studies the approaches towards the execution of the national economic policy within the national project Digital Economy of the Russian Federation. The central pillar of the study is an attempt to define the push-factors of the national socio-economic development by the stimulation of specific sectors of the economy that can be considered to be a part of the domain of the digital economy. An applied part of the article studies the use of a modified production function for the ICT branch.
Keywords: digital economy; production function; Cobb-Douglas function; public administration; economic policy.
The efficiency of commercial banks in Indonesia
by Mohammad Abdul Matin Chowdhury, Razali Haron, M.I. Kom Sulistyowati, Md. Abdullah Al Masud
Abstract: Banking sector plays a very important role in economic development through stimulation of savings and investment. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the banking efficiency between public, private, and commercial banks in Indonesia. The data were collected from consolidated annual reports of 21 commercial banks for the period of 20132018. The DEA approach was applied to identify the efficiency of all types of banks and finally compared using the technical efficiency (TE), the pure technical efficiency (PTE) and the scale efficiency (SE). The findings showed that all commercial banks are required to improve their management practices while Islamic banks are comparably better in overall technical efficiency. Finally, these findings
suggest banks to improve their efficiency through utilising maximum inputs to produce higher outputs. Policy makers may consider the findings to improve monitoring and regulating the most effective and adequate policies to improve banking growth.
Keywords: bank efficiency; Islamic and conventional banks; commercial
banks; data envelopment analysis; DEA; Malmquist Index; total factor productivity change; Indonesian banks; Indonesia.
Inherent needs of sharing logistic in mobility sharing transportation system
by Nur Budi Mulyono, Noorhan Firdaus Pambudi, Niken Larasati, Isnan Hidayat
Abstract: Empty truck in backhauling is one of the main problems faced by the land freight transportation system. The idea of sharing logistics, in the form of truck sharing, emerges as extended and inherent needs of sharing economy that contributes to the mobility sharing segment to solve an empty backhauling problem. The purpose of sharing logistics is to decrease transportation costs, maximise utilisation of the truck, and reduce carbon emission. This study aims to provide state of the art of the sharing logistic field of study, current practice, challenges, and future direction of sharing logistics that is generated from sharing economy and shared mobility. We employ depth interviews and survey targeting several small and medium enterprises (SME) in Java island of Indonesia and large enterprises that practicing mobility sharing for cars and motorcycle. As a result, the usage and application of sharing logistics are
currently limited to internal uses of the company, and the barriers to implementing are coming from carriers, consumers, producers, infrastructure, and the environment. This study elaborates those barriers through the fishbone diagram as well as deliver the know-how of sharing logistic works.
Keywords: empty backhauling; mobility sharing; sharing logistic; truck sharing.
Feed-in tariffs for solar energy in Thailand
by Christoph Casimir Odermatt
Abstract: Feed-in tariffs for solar power have been in effect in Thailand for a couple of years. Their costs of different levels of solar power installations from 2016 to 2036 are compared. The results are expressed in the Ft value which is the variable part of the Thai electricity tariff. The Ft values either feature learning or no learning and these two values are calculated accrued or discounted. Three scenarios are compared against the development plan; a non-solar, a medium, and a boom scenario. The no solar scenario shows that the government subsidises abatement. A learning scenario should replace the limit on FiT subsidised solar power, since lowering the feed-in tariff over time in line with lower levelised costs for solar power keeps the total subsidy in check. This could be applied to other countries that start with a low level of
solar power installations.
Keywords: solar subsidies; feed-in tariff; levelised costs of electricity; renewable energy; government policy analysis.
A review on dynamics and policies of knowledge transfer between university and industry
by Lina Anatan
Abstract: This article discusses a literature review regarding the dynamics and policies adopted by the government to manage knowledge transfer. This paper also discusses knowledge transfer activities in Japan, which is focus on the model of knowledge transfer and policies implemented in Japan and the important of regulative pressure to optimise the transfer of knowledge. Literature on knowledge transfer between university and industry, specifically in Indonesia, is still limited and lead to the gap on related studies. This literature review conducted to fill the gap that focused on dynamics and
policies of knowledge transfer between university and industry. Through the discussion, it is expected to give insights and lesson learned for organisations in
Indonesia to manage knowledge transfer activities between universities and industries
Keywords: knowledge transfer activities; dynamics; government policies.
Health and environmental consciousness effects of wealth in low income countries: evidence from households energy, water, and sanitation services
consumption in Burkina Faso
by Ibrahim Niankara, Tibi Didier Zoungrana, Rachidatou Ingrid Traoret
Abstract: This paper relies on random utility theory and households
consumption choices on cooking fuel, drinking water, and sanitation from the 2014 US Agency for International Developments Demographic and Health Survey data on Burkina Faso, to characterise and investigate the inter-linkages between health consciousness and environmental consciousness, and their relationship with wealth. This is achieved by specifying sequentially three econometric modelling frameworks starting with a set of independent binary probit models describing each choice process, followed by a fully parametric trivariate probit model that accounts for choice dependency, and finally by a semi-parametric trivariate probit model that further relaxes the linearity assumption. Based on the Akaike information criteria andthe estimated correlation coefficients, the semi-parametric trivariate probit specification describes best the observed consumption behaviours. The results show that increased wealth level raise households health and environmental consciousness, while leaving the relative preference ordering over the services in the consumption basket unchanged. In fact, the ordinal ranking of the effects of wealth is consistent in size and direction across all wealth categories, with the greatest relative effect recorded for the choice of improved sanitation facilities, followed by that of wood-substitute fuels, and finally by that of improved drinking water sources
Keywords: consumer behaviour; cooking fuel; environmental consciousness; health consciousness; semi-parametric estimation; trivariate probit; water and sanitation; wealth; Burkina Fas.
Economic policy of COVID-19: an emerging country perspective
by Erekle Pirveli, Teona Shugliashvili, Nino Machavariani
Abstract: This work aims to establish a sectoral priority ranking for the merging economy of Georgia. Based on 1,886 small, medium and large private entities from eight largest sectors of the economy, we build a novel Sectoral Performance Index (SPI), detecting sectors existing as well as potential contributory roles measured by GDP production, employment, intersectoral trade and firm-level efficiency (size, income levels and profitability). Findings reveal that manufacturing industry, due to its deepest inter-sectoral networks in the input-output matrix, performs best and thus may serve well as an economic backbone of the country. The results are inconsistent with Georgias current economic agenda with the focus on tourism industry. The latter, due to its high crisis-vulnerability and low performance, neither is suggestible as a top priority sector throughout the hard-times of COVID-19, nor is recommended in other
times of economic development.
Keywords: economic policy; Georgia; COVID-19; sectoral performance index; growth; SPI; development; sectoral analysis.
Oil price shocks, inflation and policy response: the emerging market experience
by T.G. Saji
Abstract: This research empirically examines the monetary policy responses towards the oil price pass-through to inflation dynamics in an emerging market like India during the period 20062017. Our results, based on vector auto-regressive (VAR) estimation, find low and insignificant crude price transmission to domestic fuel prices due to weighted tax content in the retail prices. The propagation effect of the fuel price hike to headline inflation is dismal or at minimum. The study observes weak causality from monitory policy to headline inflation, while the reverse relationship is found substantial and significant. The findings ultimately suggest the continued adherence to the present rule-based monetary policy framework of pegging policy rates to inflationary expectations in India enables the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to recognise the short-term trade-off between inflation and growth, while allows it to stabilise prices in the long-run and across different economic cycles.
Keywords: oil price shocks; headline inflation; monetary policy; inflation targeting.
Experience of digitalisation of value added tax in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia
by Olga M. Karpova, Igor A. Mayburov
Abstract: The purpose of the study is to review the results of digitalisation of value added tax (VAT) in the Sverdlovsk region. The article reveals the general aspects of digitisation of VAT and introduces its chronology in the region. The experience of digitising the administration of VAT in the countries of the European Union is considered and the coefficient of VAT efficiency for a number of countries is calculated. A comparative analysis of the results of VAT digitalisation in Russia and the Sverdlovsk region is also presented. In order to compare the results of digitalisation, the indicators of VAT efficiency (C-efficiency) and its collection are estimated. Further, the article highlights the problems of VAT digitalisation. In conclusion, the authors consider the reasons for the success of VAT digitalisation in Russia and the Sverdlovsk region, and also present prospects for the digital VAT development, in particular, the transition to intellectual tax.
Keywords: value added tax; VAT; digital value added tax; the regional aspect
of digitalisation; automated control system of value added tax; ACS VAT; C-efficiency; Russia.
A study of sovereign risk and debt defaults. Evidences from Asian economies
by Moid U. Ahmad, Talla M. Al-Deehani
Abstract: Sovereign defaults are becoming increasingly common, raising questions about fiscal management and debt management by governments across the globe. This paper attempts to investigate country defaults in countries across Asia based on the level of their debt against income. A total of nine variables for 34 countries, across Asia, were studied for the time period 20152017 where binary and multinomial logistic regression was used as a
primary technique of analysis. Exploratory factor analysis for data reduction and qualitative analysis is also done in the study. Out of total 34 sample countries, 14 (41%) were found to default based on 2017 data of Debt/GDP ratio. One of the significant finding was that Debt/GDP ratio is negatively correlated with GDP growth rate and that country debt defaults can be explained by two factors, Savings and Growth. The study is expected to
provide inputs to policy makers, managers and bankers for effective distress and debt default management at country level.
Keywords: country risk; debt default; logistic regression; macro-economy; Asia.
The volume of MTIC fraud between Poland and Czechia in electronic devices trade: general method of carousel fraud estimation
by Miroslav Vaškovič, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová
Abstract: EU member states are discussing the phenomenon of carousel (MTIC) fraud. Existing estimates of this type of VAT evasion are sparse and the methodology behind them is unclear. This paper describes a method of how to estimate (ex-post) the MTIC fraud realised within a trade on selected goods. The analysis is based on trade balances in the selected category of goods between two member states. The main assumption is that after the implementation of the specific reverse charge mechanism the MTIC frauds on
the respective goods are eliminated. The fictitious (fraudulent) supplies of goods between the member states cease to exist and the trade balance changes accordingly. The results show that the MTIC realised EUR 44-51 million profit on the MTIC fraud in international trade between Poland and Czechia with selected electronic devises in 2014 and 1st quarter 2015 (fraud measured in Czechia)
Keywords: VAT evasion; missing trader intracommunity; MTIC; MTIC fraud; estimation method; Poland; Czechia; trade balance analysis; carousel fraud; specific reverse charge; international trade.
Losses of Russian regions from mortality due to sharp climate fluctuation
by Maxim Fokeev, Liudmila Ruzhanskaya, Nadezhda Kislyak
Abstract: The ecological problem is particularly acute for emerging markets due to the lack of attention to environmental protection against the background of ensuring stable high rates of economic growth. Climate change in Russia is significantly higher than the world average. The paper is an attempt to determine the economic losses of the regions of Russia from the mortality of the population at working age for 82 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The unit for data collection was Russian cities with a population of over 50,000 people. Climate change refers to air temperature fluctuations in extreme ranges (colder than 30
Keywords: climate change; mortality; loss of GRP; weather; emerging market; extremely hot; extremely cold temperatures.
The effects of macro-economic indicators on BRICS-T economies: a cointegration and error correction modelling approach
by Saidat Abidemi Sanni, Bulent Erenay
Abstract: This study adopts the Engle-Granger two step cointegration and error correction model (EG-ECM) approaches in analysing the long-run and short-run impacts of the negative and positive fluctuations in foreign exchange rate, oil price, imports and exports of goods and services on the economic growth of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey (BRICS-T) over the period of 1960 to 2016. The Cochrane-Orcutt estimator and ridge estimator are employed to solve the problems of autocorrelation and multicollinearity in the proposed models. The results revealed the presence of
long-run equilibrium among the variables, for all of the six economies. These findings also confirm the reaction of economic growth to the fluctuations in exchange rate, oil price, imports, and exports. In addition, the short run models reveal a feedback system of the economies back to their long run equilibrium level, after fluctuations in the values of the economic indicators.
Keywords: BRICS-T countries; emerging economies; error correction model; ECM; Brazil; Russia; India; China; South Africa; Turkey.
Pass-through effects of global oil and food price shocks on Moroccos inflation: frequency causality analysis in VAR model
by Mounir El-Karimi
Abstract: Moroccos central bank aims to move towards targeting inflation rate rather than exchange rate. Since the country is substantially dependent on commodity imports, the imported inflation constitutes a crucial concern of policymakers. This paper examines the impacts of world oil and food price shocks on Moroccos consumer prices during 19992019. To this end, the Breitung and Candelon (2006) frequency causality test combined with Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure is applied on quarterly data in VAR model. The findings reveal that oil and food price changes significantly affect domestic consumer prices. On one hand, the inflationary effects of food price shocks are found to be significant in the short and long-run, while oil price inflationary effect is more important in the long-run. On the other hand, consumer prices show asymmetric responses to commodity price changes, as positive shocks in food price have more inflationary effects than negative shocks, while the
inverse pattern is shown for oil price shocks. Our findings may give useful information to policy
Keywords: oil price; food commodity price; consumer prices; inflation; Morocco; causality; frequency analysis; asymmetry.
Causal Nexus between sustainable economic growth and economic and institutional determinants: an advanced panel data estimation for BRICS countries
by Priya Gupta
Abstract: The objective of this study is to find the causal nexus between sustainable economic growth and its determinants (both economic and institutional) in the context of the five most emerging countries of the world i.e., BRICS for a period of 17 years (20022018). In the presence of unit root problem and cross-sectional dependence, Kao (1999) cointegration test followed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger non-causality test with the bootstrap procedure has been applied to examine the direction of causality. Additionally, FMOLS and DOLS techniques have been executed to examine the impact of all the determinants on sustainable economic growth in the long run. Lastly, the study also discusses the augmented mean group estimates (Eberhardt and Teal, 2010) to analyse the significant determinants impacting sustainable economic growth country wise. The results of the study are consistent with the available empirical literature for all the countries
Keywords: sustainable growth; BRICS; cross-sectional dependence; CSD; FMOLS and DOLS; Cointegration; Granger non-causality; emerging economies; panel data.
Determinants affecting household food security in India: a critical review
by Sugandh Arora, Tawheed Nabi
Abstract: Food security exists when all people, at all time, have physical and economic access to sufficient and nutritious food. The study aims at developing a conceptual model on determinants influencing the household food security in India. Theoretical model approach and systematical investigation of the available literature was undertook, to identify various determinants affecting the household food security (HFS). The results inferred that factors viz., age of the household, gender, education, employment, household members income, social status, nutritional knowledge, land ownership, assets, inflation, land production, livestock are important factors for determining HFS. A deceptive restraint of the study was non-existence of the contributions based on empirical data. Future research should empirically validate the conceptual framework and examine the mediating and moderating effects of antecedents on the
relationship between HFS and various determinants.
Keywords: household food security; HFS; determinants; nutritional knowledge; systematic review; India.
Effect of leadership towards volunteer performance of the Citarum watershed ecovillage community, Indonesia
by Sam’un Jaja Raharja
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to analyse the effect of leadership on volunteer performance of the ecovillage community in the Citarum watershed, the dirtiest and most polluted river in the world. Data were obtained from 100 respondents of the ecovillage community and analysed using structural equation modelling. Results showed that leadership was unable to instil optimal commitment in the community. The indirect effect of leadership on performance was 0.635, indicating a strong influence on the performance of volunteers. The leaders with the ability to conduct their duties properly increased commitment and creativity, as reflected in the performance of the
Keywords: leadership; performance; ecovillage; commitment; co-production leadership; transformational leadership; incentive; Citarum watershed; Indonesia.
Business cycle variability in Mexico: an empirical analysis from 19802017
by Guillermo Benavides
Abstract: The present paper analyses the properties of business cycles dynamics in Mexico from 1980 to 2017. Firstly, there is an examination of whether there have been significant changes in their properties over time. In doing so, the standard methodology about filtering time series for the analysis of business cycles facts are applied. Secondly, standard structural break tests are carried out in order to detect changes in the dynamics of the data. The results show that the volatility of consumption is greater than that of output and net exports and real interest rates are strongly countercyclical. These findings also show a statistical significant decrease in the volatility of the cyclical components of several aggregate variables around the mid-1990s. Important significant decreases are also observed in nominal variables like inflation and interest rates. These breaks coincide to some known events of economic policy changes in Mexico and may suggest a period of Great Moderation in that
Keywords: emerging economies; filtering statistical methods; Mexico; real business cycles; RBCs; structural breaks; stylised facts.
Measuring the impact of sustainable banking variables in creating business opportunities
by Mohd Shamshad, Syed Hameedur Rahman Zaini, Zahin Ansari, Asif Akhtar
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to measure the impact of selected variables of sustainable banking in India on business opportunities. This has been done by developing and validating the model with the help of SmartPLS software. The data is collected from a select sample of employees of Indian banks. Structural equation modelling is done by using the partial least square technique. The research finds that among the variables of sustainable banking,
growing environmental concerns precedes all other variables in priority. Also, the integration of sustainability procedures in banks service channels significantly impacts business opportunities. Overall, the findings indicate that the adoption of sustainability principles in banking operations may lead to the moderate increase in creation of business opportunities. The study has important implications for industry as well as society. When the banking industry conducts its operations in a sustainable way, the impact on the overall
environment is reduced. The industry benefits as such steps contribute to the creation of business opportunities. The paper presents a unique study in the sense that no other paper was found in the literature measuring the impact of sustainable banking variables on the creation of business opportunities.
Keywords: sustainable banking; PLS-SEM; sustainability reporting system; SRS; banking structures; green products and services; GPS; business opportunities.
Analysing financial inclusion strategies in Bangladesh; a Global Findex perspective
by Mashrifa Islam
Abstract: Only 41% of people in Bangladesh have reported having a bank account (Global Findex, 2017); which means close to 100 million people in Bangladesh are out of the formal financial system. There has been a slow growth in the proportion of people with accounts in Bangladesh, which is unusual in the context of a rapidly developing South Asia, especially during a time where financial inclusion has taken centre stage among policy leaders. This study collates the financial inclusion policies adopted by the Government of Bangladesh and discusses how they translate to actual financial inclusion data found on the Global Findex database. It finds that to improve the financial inclusion scenario, Bangladesh should build urgency around rural branch penetration, improve nationwide financial awareness, build trust in the banking sector, and nurture the digital financial service sector.
Keywords: financial inclusion; strategies; Bangladesh; Findex; policy; government; development; inclusive.
The impact of institutional quality on enterprise location choice in the Russian regions
by Natalia Davidson, Oleg Mariev, Aizhamal Rakhmetova
Abstract: This paper aims to estimate the impact of institutional quality on the firms location choice in the Russian regions. We use data from three sources: the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the International Center for the Study of Institutions and Development (ICSID), and the ranking agency Expert RA over the period 20062014. Based on the panel data model, our study confirms that institutional quality substantially and positively affects enterprise location choice in a region. In particular, the investment potential is important for attracting firms into a region, while investment risk negatively affects firms location choice. These results emphasise that improvement of
the institutional environment in Russian regions is essential for business development.
Keywords: enterprise location choice; institutions; economic policy; economic development; Russia.
The superstar effect on colour discrimination in the Brazilian cultural labour market
by Thais Alves Da Silva, Sandro Eduardo Monsueto, Marizélia Ribeiro De Souza, Jaqueline Moraes
Abstract: This article aims to analyse the role that individuals known as superstars have on colour discrimination in the Brazilian cultural labour market. We used data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey between 2012 and 2018 to test the assumption that the superstars can use their extraordinary talent and popularity to reduce the colour discrimination associated with pay. We divided the cultural labour market into two groups, one with common occupations and the other with occupations with greater potential to be held by superstars, who have more media exposure, who are more popular, and for whom there is a higher concentration of income. We used quantile regressions to capture the impact of variables at various points along the income distribution, and a differential decomposition to confirm the hypothesis that colour discrimination decreases when the worker reaches superstar status. We obtained different results for gender and age, which revealed the presence of a superstar effect among younger women
Keywords: culture; colour discrimination; superstar; Brazil.
The powerlessness of mudharabah instrument in Indonesian Islamic banking
by Muchlis Yahya, Agus Eko Sujianto, Edy Yusuf Agunggunanto, Johan Arifin, Syaparudin
Abstract: : The objective of this study is to analyse the powerlessness of profit sharing payment with the mudharabah instrument in Indonesian Islamic banking. The factors that could affect the powerlessness are inflation, interest rate, mudharib bankrupt potency (NPF), operational costs, and workload with fixed payment. Using time series data that consist of 60 months from 2014 to 2018, this study shows that the spirit of implementing mudharabah contract from the side of financing was excessive as indicated by the constant value 47.750. In the process, it is loosened due to inflation, interest rate, mudharib bankrupt potency (NPF), operational cost and workload with fixed payment model. In the future, it is necessary to synchronise the revenue model and cost. If the revenue from the financing side used profit sharing payment model, then all the production costs (wage and rent) should be applied the profit sharing
payment model instead of fixed payments.
Keywords: financing; mudharabah; profit sharing payments; fixed payments.
Decomposition of the effects of ageing population and migration on labour force
by Alma Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, Kristina Matuzevičiūtė, Dovilė Ruplienė
Abstract: Ageing is a long-term trend in Europe that started a few decades ago; it causes a number of economic and social problems. The paper aims to evaluate the effects of population ageing and migration on the changes of population and labour force (LF) size as well as the structure of the EU member states, using the decomposition method. We identified how the LF has changed due to the changes of the LF activity level and population volume and then we decomposed influence via demographic changes and migration. The analysis revealed that LF increased in 13 analysed countries over the period 20132017, with significant increases in Germany, Italy, Hungary, Sweden and France. Migration compensated the negative demographic effect on the LF in Germany,
Sweden and Denmark. However, migration negatively influenced LF in eight countries, mostly in Spain and Poland, since the net migration was negative. Nevertheless, promoting immigration could help prevent LF shortage issue as well as population ageing.
Keywords: ageing population; labour market; labour force; activity rate; migration; decomposition.
Implementation of the territories with special economic regimes in the Far East of Russia
by Sergey Sosnovskikh
Abstract: : In the Far East of Russia, economic development has dramatically slowed down for the past 30 years. The federal government seeks new methods to attract investments into the regions, stimulate entrepreneurial activity, and boost economic growth. This paper critically evaluates state policies that involve the active implementation of special economic zones, territorial development zones, Vladivostok Free Port, and the territories of advanced social and economic development. Research is based on the interviews with the state authorities from the regions of Russia and thorough investigation of the state policies, legislation, and government reports. This study suggests three conclusions. First, there is an excessive amount of state development policies, which is the result of competition among different federal ministries. Second, there is no evidence of innovative activity or productivity growth within those economic zones. Finally, methods to assess the effectiveness of the regional
policies are undeveloped and lack clarity. Recommendations for further research are given at the end of the paper.
Keywords: territory of advanced social and economic development; special economic zone; SEZ; territorial development zone; Vladivostok Free Port; VFP; Russia; Far East; government; industrial cluster; innovation; investment.
Does the board of directors' characteristics affect the amount of capital raised in IPO?
by Elżbieta Bukalska, Anna Wawryszuk-Misztal
Abstract: Attracting the interest of investors and gaining capital during the initial public offering (IPO) is the most important task that a company faces while going public. Management board diversity is the tool that company use to signal their value. The aim of this study is to analyse the relation between the management board composition and the amount of capital gained by Polish non-financial companies going public on the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the period of 2006-2018. The results of multivariate regression analysis show that larger board size and higher level of board diversity in terms of age are statistically significant and are positively associated with the amount of capital raised in IPO by companies. Still, board gender diversity is not an important factor explaining IPO proceeds. Our study reveals that control variables such as company size and listing delay, but not profitability, are correlated with the dependent variable.
Keywords: IPO proceeds; corporate governance; management board diversity.
Thai pottery industry economic innovation on the edge pottery purchasing decision factors Dan Kwian pottery village - a case study (purchasing decision factors case study of Dan Kwian pottery village)
by Adisak Suvittawat
Abstract: Thailand is well known for its floating markets and night markets in Bangkok and surrounding areas. It is lesser known for its pottery markets which include Jattuchak market (JJ market) and the most famous Dan Kwian pottery village on the outskirts Nakhon Ratchasima city, also known as Korat. This quantitative research project focused on the market visitors' perceptions and purchasing decision making in relation to pottery shopping at the Dan Kwian market. This destination shopping experience combines affordable prices with cultural tourism and economic development and entrepreneurship. This research project concentrated on the product characteristics and pricing of Thai pottery. With the main points to be researched being: does the product match the needs of the consumer?; what is the relationship between product and price?; as well as styles and form factors of the pottery products and the colour varieties of the pottery products. The main purpose of going to the pottery market was shopping for reasonable local products while supporting the local economy. The majority of the shoppers had a positive shopping experience and were happy with the quality and prices at the Dan Kwian pottery market. It is hoped to replicate this study at other pottery markets in Thailand and around the world.
Keywords: destination tourism; economic; farmer markets; pottery markets.
Could the next Indonesian income tax law adopt to the concept of income under IFRS?
by Prianto Budi, Ning Rahayu
Abstract: This study has two purposes. The first is to explore the implementation of income concepts under current income tax law (UU PPh) before and after the convergence of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Indonesia. The second is to explore whether the new UU PPh could adopt the notion of income under IFRS. By using a qualitative approach, this study concluded that before and after IFRS convergence, the income definition under current UU PPh has never changed since its first 1983 enactment. Such condition has resulted in some income tax issues based on the ability-to-pay principle and realisation doctrine. The main problem relates to the realisation principle as part of the historical cost accounting system, whereas accounting income refers to the mark-to-market, ignoring realisation rules. The second conclusion is that the income concept under the next UU PPh can partially apply the accounting income concept because it still needs the realisation principle.
Keywords: the concept of income; ability-to-pay principle; realisation doctrine; historical cost accounting; HCA; fair value accounting; FVA.
Resource-abundance regions of Russia and «dark» side of innovations (cases of Kuzbass and Krasnoyarsk regions)
by Kirill Sablin
Abstract: The paper is devoted to the study of entrepreneurs' ability those generate Schumpeterian innovations to be a subject of the Russian economy development. Regions those are rich in natural and mineral resources are the object of the study. Research methodology includes concept of dual enclave economy, concept of fragmented innovation systems, and concept of institutional entrepreneurship. Research method is represented with multifunctional φ-Fisher criterion. Activities of entrepreneurs of 'developmental institutions' in Kuzbass and Krasnoyarsk regions are analysed. It is revealed that entrepreneurs faced with a number of problems related not only to the existence of administrative barriers, but also to the lack of demand for their products from large companies, as well as the lack of access to necessary infrastructure. Most of entrepreneurs preferred individual form of interaction with regional authorities representatives that to solve these problems. These facts mean bounded positive externalities arising in the process of innovation activities.
Keywords: resource-abundance regions; institutional environment; Schumpeterian innovations; rent-seeking behaviour.
Revealed comparative advantage and constant market share analysis of Indonesian cinnamon in the world market
by Evi Thelia Sari, Maria Rochelle G. Divinagracia
Abstract: The study analysed the RCA and CMS of Indonesian cinnamon in the world market. Data on all types of cinnamon products traded by Indonesia to USA and the world market from 1987 to 2017 were retrieved from the UN Comtrade. Results showed that Indonesian cinnamon has comparative advantage in either the world or US market because the RCA value is greater than one. The CMS analysis indicated that Indonesian cinnamon garnered positive signs for the world effect, commodity growth effect, and competitiveness. The negative sign of market distribution implied the difficulty of Indonesian cinnamon to increase its volume of exports to the US market. The Indonesian government should identify other markets, and not solely depend on the requirements of the US market. There is an opportunity for Indonesians to grow and produce cinnamon to increase its supply to existing and potential markets.
Keywords: cinnamon; spices; revealed comparative advantage; RCA; constant market share; CMS.
Owner-manager objectives as significant driving factor of family business performance
by Liliana Dewi, Eko Budi Santoso, Kazia Laturette
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to determine performance as conceived by the owner-manager (POM) of the owner-manager profile (OMP) and owner-manager objectives (OMO). In analysing the results, the researcher used the method of partial least square regression software applied to data from 56 Indonesian business families. The results obtained are first, OMO has a significant effect on POM. Second, OMP has no significant effect on POM. Indicators of owner-manager education are influential as formative indicators of OMP. The indicator of knowledge sharing knowledge and knowledge of the growth of the owner-managers company has an effect as a formative indicator of OMO. Indicator of the ability to use company resources and the ability to read owner-manager financial statements have an effect as a formative indicator of POM.
Keywords: family business; owner-manager objectives; OMO; owner-manager profile; OMP; performance owner-manager.
Mapping innovation in Indonesian cooperative: priorities, obstacles and challenges to survive
by Novita Puspasari, Yudha Aryo Sudibyo
Abstract: Indonesia has the largest number of cooperatives in the world, however cooperatives have not been able to contribute optimally to the country's economy. Therefore, innovation is needed in order to develop Indonesian cooperatives. This research aims to measure cooperatives innovation priorities and map such innovations in Indonesia. The method used was mixed method through survey and in-depth interviews sequentially. 1,050 cooperatives became the respondent of the survey, while 113 cooperatives became the participant of the interviews. The study found that innovation priority in cooperatives varies among provincial clusters and quadrants. The implications of this research will be a baseline for conducting necessary interventions to build cooperative innovation ecosystem in Indonesia.
Keywords: cooperative; innovation; mixed method; innovation ecosystem.
Measuring mismatch unemployment in the Malaysia labour market
by Rusmawati Said, Salwaty Jamaludin, Normaz Wana Ismail, Norashidah Mohamed Nor, Chen Chen Yong
Abstract: Despite its low unemployment rate, the Malaysia labour market is currently sending signals of mismatch, a misallocation between demand and supply that may occur in the form of educational, skills, geographical, occupational, and industrial mismatches. Failure to identify the right type of mismatches will lead to ineffective policies to solve the unemployment issue. Using matching function, this study aims to calculate the labour mismatch index and measure the contribution of mismatch unemployment to the rise of unemployment rate. Employing various sources of data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia, Ministry of Human Resource Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia, this study found the presence of skills mismatch in the Malaysia labour market, with the mismatch index gradually increased from 0.108 in 2007 to 0.273 in 2017. Mismatch unemployment explained at most half of the total observed increase in unemployment rate, signalling severe mismatch in the Malaysia labour market.
Keywords: mismatch; unemployment; vacancies; matching models; Malaysia.
Relationship of financial inclusion and physical quality of life: evidences from SAARC countries
by Arindam Laha, Avisek Sen
Abstract: In an inclusive development paradigm, it is expected that the process of financial inclusion reinforces an overall improvement in the quality of life of the population in a country. This paper attempts to examine the cross-country variations in the level of financial inclusion and that of quality of life in SAARC region to establish the empirical relationship between them. Empirical results reveal that linkages from quality of life to financial inclusion is quite robust than the other way round. Evidences in South Asia depict significant cross-country variation: Sri Lanka and Maldives excel in terms of financial inclusion and quality of life, while the performance of Pakistan is not satisfactory at all in both the development indicators. Empirical results based on canonical correlation and the casualty test support the relevance of demand following approach of financial inclusion (rather than supply lending approach) in ensuring higher quality of life.
Keywords: financial inclusion; physical quality of life; South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation; SAARC; canonical correlation; panel causality test.
Education and equal opportunity: a study of state initiatives towards gender sensitisation for sustenance of a responsible society
by Puja Khatri, Khushboo Raina
Abstract: Equity or equal opportunity in education has remained a focal point of study for recent researches on inclusion. An inclusive society which is said to overlook caste, status, gender, religion, etc., is much cohesive in nature and accepts all individuals for their real identities. There is an urgent need of imparting gender sensitive education at school level in India, in order to, build an inclusive society which aims at respect for all individuals and their equality. The purpose of the study is to map the perceptions of school going students towards various gender and equality related variables and mapping their relationships in light of the steps taken by the government. The study was conducted on 160 students out of which students representing three social-economic status (SES) namely low-income group, middle income group and high-income group were considered. Multivariate analysis (MANOVA) and correlation techniques were applied for data analysis.
Keywords: equity in education; responsible living; educational sustenance; inclusive society; gender sensitisation.
Measuring economic policy uncertainty in Turkey
by Güneş Topçu, Jale Oran
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to construct a monthly news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Turkey. We used the method proposed by Baker et al. (2016a) to construct the news-based index for the period from February 2000 to December 2018. We used the digital archives of five Turkish newspapers to obtain data. The results show that the Turkish EPU index is affected by both domestic and foreign events. It rises mainly with national elections, national political uncertainties, other uncertainties related to US and Turkish central banks, the failed coup attempt in Turkey, the September 11 terror attacks, and the US presidential elections. The results are in line with the expectations from emerging economies, where political instability is high. The implications of this research for emerging economies are that governments should strengthen constitutions and institutions, and that policy makers should implement economic policies that decrease country risk.
Keywords: economic policy; uncertainty; news-based index; elections; political uncertainty; Turkey; emerging economies.
Emotional labour, stress and employee performance: a study of higher education system
by Binod Kumar Rajak, Sambashiva Rao Kunja, Punam Singh
Abstract: The teacher is expected to play a multifaceted role in the overall development of students, which makes a teacher's job much more challenging as well as stressful. Creating a conductive environment for a meaning and engaging student-teacher interaction requires the teacher to regulate his/her emotions in a manner with is favourable to a student's wellbeing. In the given competitive and highly demanding educational environment, this study attempts to understand the influence of stress on teacher's performance and the intervening role of EL. The study was conducted on teachers employed in university and colleges across India. The study revealed that DA has a more significant effect on stress in comparison to SA whereas stress strongly affects the EP. EL is one of the crucial factors in creating stress. Our research enriches the existing literature by exploring EL, stress and EP in the perspective of teachers in higher education.
Keywords: emotional labour; higher education; stress; employee performance; structural equation modelling; deep acting and surface acting.
Agricultural exports and potentials of Algeria: an econometric investigation through gravity model
by Mohamed Assad Allah Matallah, Mohamed Amine Benmehaia, Abdelmadjid Benmebarek
Abstract: This paper investigates Algeria's export flows, with special reference to agricultural exports, through an econometric analysis. Based on the panel data, the gravity model approach has been used to estimate Algeria's exports determinants through annual data covering the period 2001 to 2017 for 98 trading partners. The study also uses measures for export propensities and potentials to examine agricultural exports performances. The main findings indicate that Algerian export sector corroborates the gravity model, importers' GDP and distance are its significant driven factors, the common culture has a significant effect on the agricultural exports sector, and there are more potential to be tapped. Besides, rankings are obtained based on Algerian exports propensities. Some policy recommendations are derived from this study in order to highlight the main considerations to be taken into account to enhance exports sector performance.
Keywords: agricultural exports; gravity model; exports potential; panel regression; Algeria.
Special Issue on: IJEPEE ICKSSD2019 Policy for Sustainable Development in Emerging Economies
Climate Finance: A Systematic Literature Review
by Sanjeet Singh, R. Jayaram
Abstract: Climate finance has a significant role in sustainable economy. in this systematic review, eighty journal articles related to climate finance of the last two decades (19992019) had been reviewed from the sources of Web of Science and Scopus. This review had selectively categorised the existing literature on climate finance into three broad issues, that is, donor-related issues, and recipient related issues and common issues. The study had identified eight sub-issues (accounting issues, political issues, governance issues, allocation issues, bias issues, issues related to the burden of climate finance, recipient issues, and financial management issues) in connection with major issues in climate finance. This study concluded that many of the issues were unresolved and identified the under-researched areas like accounting challenges, donor domination, gender issues, human rights, and weakness of local institutions and allocation model issues as the futuristic areas of research in relation with climate finance issues.
Keywords: climate finance; adaptation finance; mitigation finance; sustainable economy; allocation issues; sustainable finance; climate fund.