International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies (19 papers in press)
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY: DOES SMART GRID MATTER?
by Konstantin Gomonov, Svetlana Balashova, Vladimir Matyushok
Abstract: Russia has one of the highest levels of electricity consumption both per unit of GDP and per capita globally. This study quantifies the degree to which electricity consumption is influenced by population, personal income, industrial production, and other factors, utilising multiple regression of historical data from across the federal subjects of the Russian Federation from 2011 to 2016. We model regional-level electricity consumption to estimate the total electricity demand in each region. Implementation of smart grids must play an influential role in boosting energy efficiency and reduction of energy waste both for households and manufacturing processes. The motivation of our study is to try to answer three research questions, related to each other. First, what is the basic model to predict electricity consumption in Russian regions? Second, how to value smart grid penetration in Russian regions? The third, is there any statistically significant impact of smart grid implementation on electricity consumption? We utilise a sectoral approach, to assess the effect on a regional level and at a sectoral level as well.
Keywords: Russia; Russian regions; electricity consumption; smart grid; panel regression.
Indicative approaches in forecasting of industry indexes
by Elena Grigorieva
Abstract: One of the main tasks facing organisations is to modernise their activities considering possible changes in the market. To prepare for modernisation, the information about the possible direction and speed of market development is needed, so it is necessary to carry out the forecasting procedure. This article is devoted to short-term forecasting of the possible direction of development of the industry in the Russian economy. The article is based on the use of such tools as groups of financial multipliers, which are formed at the intersection of the production and stock dimensions of the industry. The proposed financial multipliers are considered in the dynamics, and the received signals from the proposed indicators are combined and compared with the dynamics of the development of stock instruments (stock value or the value of the industry index) in the process of assessing the quality of the received forecast.
Keywords: Short-term forecasting; financial drivers; signal indicators; market value indicators; stock index.
E-COMMERCE IN BRICS: SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES
by Svetlana Revinova
Abstract: BRICS countries pay great attention to the development of e-commerce and plan to strengthen cooperation in this area. An increase of the e-commerce share in GDP can become an economic growth driver in the countries. The advantages of e-commerce are: increase in a volume and trade growth, increase in the number of cross-border payments, small and medium-sized enterprises entry into the new markets, increased level and efficiency of cooperation between countries, new jobs creation, etc. The aim of the article is to assess the development of e-commerce in BRICS. In order to identify opportunities for cooperation among BRICS countries, it is necessary to consider the current state, development dynamics and characteristics of e-commerce in each participating country.
Keywords: e-commerce; BRICS; B2C; e-shopper; developing countries; economic growth.
Common Industrial Policy as a factor of the Development of Integration Processes in the EAEU
by Inna Andronova, Nikolay P. Gusakov, Marina V. Ganeeva, Natalya V. Dyuzheva
Abstract: The common industrial policy of the EAEU is currently reduced to declarative coordination of actions of the member States, implemented through a limited set of mechanisms, mainly aimed at enhancing innovative cooperation through the development of technological platforms and at creating of a united system for finding business partners and organising orders in the industry, and, obviously, is not comprehensive. Meanwhile, the priority for the integration process in the EAEU is the formation of large Eurasian transnational corporations that can be competitive in the world market, the development of Eurasian value chains, the strengthening of industrial cooperation within the EAEU. The article substantiates the need, defines the goals and sets the directions of development and implementation of the common industrial policy of the EAEU. The authors developed proposals for the formation of the program-oriented budget of the EAEU for financing projects of industrial cooperation: the principles of the budget, the sources of budgetary recharge, corrective mechanisms, internal and external control over the collection and expenditure of budgetary funds. Institutional changes in the executive authorities of the EAEU, in particular, the establishment of the Agency for industry and the Commission for independent financial audit, are proposed.
Keywords: Economic integration; Eurasian integration; Eurasian Economic Union; EAEU; industry; industrial cooperation; common industrial policy; transnational corporations; consolidated budget; institutions.
Heterogeneous Common Factor Approach to Examination of Real Effective Exchange Rate Determinants
by Srdjan Redzepagic, Mirjana Cizmovic, Damien Bazin
Abstract: Using a dataset of the Eastern European countries over the 1995
Keywords: real effective exchange rate; common factor; common dynamic process; productivity.
NEW TRENDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION: MASSIVE OPEN ONLINE COURSES AS AN INNOVATIVE TOOL FOR INCREASING UNIVERSITY PERFORMANCE
by Ani Oganesyan, Elena Ponomarenko, Valentina Teslenko
Abstract: The name MOOC (Massive Open Online Courses) was offered in 2008, thus, this is a relatively new phenomenon for higher education and especially for Russian universities. In 2017 the national project was launched by the Russian Government, which is called Development of the export potential of the Russian education system. According to the projects objectives, Russian institutions of higher education should implement efficient measures aimed to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of Russian education on the international market of educational services in order to increase the share of non-primary exports of the Russian Federation (Passport of the national project Development of the export potential of the Russian education system, 2017). In the framework of this project, the authors have analyzed data received by the Russian universities on their foreign language MOOCs and developed recommendations for their promotion on the international market.
Keywords: Russian universities; MOOCs; exportation of Russian higher education; MOOCs promotion; university performance; university rankings; QS BRICS ranking; e-education.
Relationship of Political Connection and Tax Aggressiveness: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia
by Eko Arief Sudaryono, Djuminah Djuminah, Wartono Wartono, Wahyu Widarjo, Rahmawati Rahmawati
Abstract: We analyze the determinants of tax aggressiveness practices on companies which listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Literature shows the political connection is an important factor that affects the company tax policy making. The analysis results of 844 companies which were listing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2012-2016 indicate that the directors who have political connection tend to avoid tax aggressiveness. This indicates the existence of
Keywords: Political connection; tax aggressiveness; effective tax rate; firm size.
Determinants of Bank Profitability: Empirical Research on Lithuania Market
by Viktorija Skvarciany, Mangirdas Mork?nas, Daiva Jurevi?ien?
Abstract: The goal of the current paper is to show that the factors that are related to individual customers usage of banking services are vital for banks profitability. In the current research, profitability is expressed by return on assets, return on equity and net interest margin. The following determinants influencing profitability were determined from the literature: number of cards, number of branches, number of automated teller machines (ATMs), number of point-of-sale (POS) terminals, number of internet banking users, number of mobile banking users, customers trust. It was found that five of them (except the number of cards and number of mobile banking users) have a positive influence on commercial banking sector profitability in Lithuania.
Keywords: profitability; return on assets; return on equity; banking.
Determinants of Economic Growth Rates of the Newly Formed Countries of the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc
by Shahdad Naghshpour
Abstract: This study first tests the equality of the means of GDPs among countries that joined market economies after the collapse of the Soviet Union using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method. Then it examines whether GDPs are converging as predicted by the neoclassical growth theory. Finally, it identifies the factors that contribute to the persistent difference. Panel data analysis is used to address the latter concern. The growth rates of countries in the study are not converging. Stage of development provides an explanation and supports Club Convergence. All identified factors are statistically significant.
Keywords: Eastern European Countries; Transition Economies; Economic Growth; Growth Rate; Absolute Convergence; Club Convergence; Determinants of growth.
Output, Employment and Productivity: Contribution of different technology intensive manufacturing industries of India
by Kawaljeet Kaur, Swati Mehta
Abstract: The present paper is an attempt to have an in-depth look at the structure, growth and productivity trends in organized manufacturing sector of India at aggregate as well as at the disaggregate level (three digit level) for the four technology intensive industrial sub-groups for the period 1999-2000 to 2015-16 based on firm level data drawn from CMIE Prowess database. To get a clearer picture an attempt is further made to examine the contribution of different technology intensive industrial sub-groups in the output, employment and total factor productivity growth of the manufacturing sector as a whole. Results suggest that although HT and MHT sectors were found with high trend growth rate of output, employment and TFPG but in terms of their contribution to overall growth of the manufacturing sector MLT and LT sectors are still witnessing a larger contribution in overall growth of output, employment and TFPG of the manufacturing sector.
Keywords: manufacturing; total factor productivity; technology; output; employment; high-tech; low-tech.
Profitability and firm value: the impact of noncash value flow recorded in the financial statements
by Bambang Sutopo, Santoso Tri Hananto
Abstract: This study examines whether noncash value flow recorded in financial statements (NCVF) has an impact on the relationship between the profitability and the firm value. Using a sample covering 1904 firm-year observations listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2013-2016 periods, the results of this study indicate that the impact of NCVF on the association between profitability and firm value for the high positive NCVF subsample is not significantly different from that for the low NCVF subsample. In addition, the impact of NCVF on the relationship between profitability and firm value for the high absolute negative NCVF subsample was significantly lower compared to that for low NCVF subsample. These results are not in accordance with the nature of NCVF which affects earnings and assets that can be normal, above normal, or below normal, and which subsequently affect profitability (ROA) and firm value (Tobin's Q).
Keywords: profitability; ROA; firm value; Tobins Q; noncash value flow; Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
Consumer behaviours on the luxury goods market in Poland
by Bogdan Mroz
Abstract: The basic objective of the paper is to highlight new trends in consumer behaviours on the luxury goods market in Poland. The paper focuses on recent developments and growth trends in different categories of luxury goods and services. The author provides an empirical insight into luxury goods market in Poland based on available statistical data, think tanks reports and research findings. The relevant statistical data, e.g., regarding the number of high net worth individuals in Poland are provided as well as the split of the Polish luxury and premium goods market into categories of goods and services. The author tries to pinpoint factors conducive to the growth of the luxury market in Poland and to highlight country-specific consumer behaviours on this particular market.
Keywords: consumer behaviour; consumer trends; luxury goods market; Poland.
THE ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY VIA COUPS ON FIJIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH: MODELING THE EFFECT OVER VARYING SAMPLE SIZES AND PERIODS
by Gyanendra Sisodia, Alberto Ibanez, Murale Venugopalan
Abstract: This study aims to examine the impact of economic uncertainty via coup/s on the growth of Fiji
Keywords: Coups; Political Instability; Economic Growth; Trade; Imports.
Economic liberalization and Malaysian economic growth: The convergence club of Malaysia and ASEAN
by ROSSAZANA ABRAHIM, SONIA KUMARI SELVARAJAN, D.Y.G. AFFIZAH A.W.G. MARIKAN
Abstract: Liberalisation has been a focus of developing countries policies; Malaysia adopted trade reforms since mid-1960s, and financial liberalisation was initiated during the late 1970s. This paper investigates the impact of economic liberalisation (financial and trade liberalisation) on Malaysian economy, over the study period of 1970 to 2016. This paper also aims to assess income convergence club between Malaysia and other ASEAN counterparts. The liberalisation analysis uses the bound testing approach of cointegration by Pesaran et al. (2001) while the Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology was employed to analyse convergence. The findings suggest that economic liberalisation play a significant role in promoting economic growth, while the application of Philips and Sul method shows that Malaysia converges with other ASEAN countries with regards to income convergence. Additionally, the convergence findings further support the notion that economic liberalisation promotes economy growth.
Keywords: trade liberalization; financial liberalization; economic growth; convergence.
Long Run Analysis of Tourism and Economic Growth in Nigeria
by Abidemi Adegboye, Clement A.U. Ighodaro
Abstract: In this paper, the impact of tourism on economic growth in Nigeria is examined using a dynamic framework and data covering the 1983
Keywords: ARDL; capital investment; economic growth; employment; export shares; Nigeria; tourism.
Payments Bank in India: Acceptance and Use
by Uttam Chakraborty
Abstract: Payments bank is the latest inclusion in the Indian digital, paperless, cashless and mobile banking industry. There is hardly any study that examines the factors that affect peoples intention to use payments bank services. Therefore, there is an impending need to determine the factors that influence people to use payments bank services. The study integrates the UTAUT3 model and initial trust model (ITM) to determine the constructs of the study. Data analysis reveals that BI directly predicted by PE, EE, SI, FC, HM, PV, habit, PI and initial trust whereas FC, habit, PI, initial trust and BI directly determine UB. The study has significant contributions towards theoretical and practical body of knowledge in the context of financial innovations especially in emerging economies.
Keywords: Payments bank; India; UTAUT model; initial trust model; structural equation modeling (SEM).
Seasonality in the Thai stock market: The lottery effect
by Surachai Chancharat, Wilaiporn Paisarn, Sattra Maporn
Abstract: This study focuses on the influence of the lottery day effect in the Thai stock market. Daily stock index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) from January 1, 1990 to October 3, 2018 are used to examine the impact of the lottery effect on the return and volatility of the stock indices. For robustness test, we also investigate this effect in three periods, the Asian financial crisis period, the global crisis period, and the whole period. Using the GARCH(1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) models, the results show that there is the persistence of volatility and volatility patterns of clustering, asymmetry and leverage effect in the Thai context. The results significantly suggest that lottery day is priced as a systematic risk factor in the Thai stock market and plays an important role to predict the future returns and volatility for the Asian crisis period.
Keywords: Market efficiency; investor sentiment; market anomaly; GARCH; Thailand.
The Impact Analysis of ASEAN Movement of Natural Person in ASEAN-5 Countries Skilled Workers Mobility to Indonesia
by Yeremia Natanael, Kiki Verico
Abstract: ASEAN movement of natural person (MNP) agreement was signed to liberalise and to eliminate barriers in the temporary cross-border movement of natural persons involved in the trade in goods, trade in services and investment towards the free flow of skilled labour in ASEAN. By using panel data of ASEAN-5 countries during period 2007-2016, this study aimed to find the evidence whether ASEAN agreement on movement of natural person was brought positive or negative effect on skilled workers mobility from ASEAN-5 countries into Indonesia. By using feasible generalised least square (FGLS) estimation methods, we found that during period 2007
Keywords: ASEAN Movement of Natural Person; international labor mobility; skilled workers; services trade; trade liberalization; economic integration; Indonesia; ASEAN; gravity model; FDI.
Special Issue on: New Realities for Emerging Markets
Optimising the value-at-risk model in banks in India to adequately quantify market risks in emerging markets
by Fakhraddin Akhmedov, Mhd Shaker Zeitoun
Abstract: Market risk tends to be extreme in its development and violent in its impact. This study gives consideration to the case study of banks in India in optimising the value-at-risk (VaR) model in emerging markets believing that the case study of these banks is not just the story of individual banks but a window into the structural issues of the entire market risk models in emerging markets. This study uses the parametric method to optimise the value-at-risk model based on probabilities and mathematical expectations to adequately quantify the expected worst-case loss that a financial institution may sustain under normal market conditions, at a predefined confidence level, over a given time horizon and for a given asset portfolio after taking into consideration the expected recovery rate of assets. The recommendations set out in this study provide emerging markets with an optimised estimation of the value-at-risk model to adequately quantify market risk.
Keywords: emerging markets; banking; banks in India; market risk; asset portfolio; value-at-risk model; VaR; India.