International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics (9 papers in press)

Regular Issues

• Assessment of healthy life years factors across European countries based on neural networks analysis  
  by Igor Kirshin 
  Abstract: The objective of this paper is to identify, test and evaluate the influence of health and disability factors on the healthy life years. Panel data from the Eurostat European Health Survey and Health Statistics covering 31 European countries from 2011 to 2022 were used to examine how healthy life years are associated with health and disability factors. A cross-country multiple regression analysis with dummy variables for the COVID-19 period was performed using the multiple linear regression model and the multilayer perceptron neural network in two versions: regression and time series (regression). The results obtained convincingly confirm the proposed hypothesis: healthy life years were significantly associated with self-assessed disability level and self-assessed long-term limitations in usual activities due to health problems, and to a lesser extent with share of people with good or very good perceived health and people with long-term diseases or health problems. Global sensitivity analysis showed that all networks determine the level of disability variable to be the most important. To test the robustness of the model, the random forest model was applied. The identified factors can be used as significant predictors of healthy life years assessment for European countries population.
  Keywords: healthy life years; time series analysis and forecasting; multiple linear regression analysis; neural networks; global sensitivity analysis; health inequalities; self-reported health.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10071515
   
  
• Econometric evidence on the moderating role of board composition in the CSR - financial performance Nexus  
  by Mouna Rekik, Foued Saâdaoui 
  Abstract: This study explores the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and firm financial performance, focusing on how board composition influences this link. It examines how governance features of the board of directors support stakeholder interests and align with strategic company goals. The analysis uses the feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) estimator, an advanced econometric method that corrects for heteroscedasticity and serial correlation to produce reliable estimates. The study analyses a panel of 349 European firms from 2011 to 2021, measuring CSR through environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores and their key dimensions. Results show a significant positive association between CSR and financial performance, measured by return on assets and equity. Board characteristics such as size, independence, and gender diversity strengthen this relationship, while chief executive officer (CEO) duality weakens it. These findings highlight the critical role of sound corporate governance in maximising the value created by CSR initiatives.
  Keywords: corporate social responsibility; CSR; firm’s financial performance; corporate governance; moderating effects; FGLS regression.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10072070
   
  
• Investigating efficiency dynamics of the Indian forex market using Hurst exponent and changepoint analysis: impact of financial upheavals  
  by Radhika Prosad Datta 
  Abstract: The foreign exchange (forex) markets efficiency has significant implications for investment decisions, risk management, and economic policies. This paper investigates the efficiency of the Indian forex market during financial upheavals, focusing on the Hurst exponent a measure from fractal theory analysis, as a tool to analyse the self-similarity and predictability of price trends. Using data from four major exchange rates (USD, GBP, EUR and JPY) against the Indian rupee, spanning 2018 to 2021, the study employs the application of the Hurst exponent, and changepoint analysis to assess the forex markets efficiency during financial upheavals, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The study contributes to the understanding of market efficiency dynamics, offering practical implications for traders, investors, policymakers, and businesses dealing with foreign exchange rates. By bridging theoretical insights with empirical findings, this research aids decision-makers in navigating the complexities of the ever-changing landscape of international finance.
  Keywords: exchange rates; Hurst exponent; changepoint; market efficiency; time series.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10072375
   
  
• An assessment tool for academic research evaluation  
  by Fernando Delbianco, Andrés Fioriti, Fernando Tohmé 
  Abstract: The academic evaluation of the publication record of researchers is relevant for identifying both relevant topics and talented candidates for promotion and funding. A key tool for this is the use of the indexes provided by Web of Science and Scopus, costly databases that sometimes exceed the possibilities of academic institutions in many parts of the world. We develop a methodology that uses data in one of the databases to infer the most commonly used index of the other one. In this way, access to just one database allows recovering the information contained in both. Using machine learning methods, we select just a few of the hundreds of variables in one database, which are used in a panel regression to infer the main index in the other database. Since the information of Scopus can be freely scraped from the web, this approach allows the inference of the Impact Factor of publications (the main index in Web of Science), a key index used to assess the quality of academic research around the globe.
  Keywords: scholar indexes; bibliometrics; academic evaluation; data analysis.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2025.10072523
   
  

Special Issue on: Economic Analysis and the Current Real-World Situation Exploring New Trends in Applied Economics. Special Issue in Honour of Prof. George Agiomirgianakis

• Investment analytics using association rule mining (Finassociations)  
  by Elif Kartal, M. Erdal Balaban, Zeki Özen 
  Abstract: This study aims to discover financial associations (relations) in (foreign) exchange rates, cryptocurrencies, and stocks using Association Rule Mining (ARM). It demonstrates the applicability and success of ARM on alternative investment instruments over desired periods. A dynamic web application called “Finassociations” was developed in this scope, allowing investors to use and discover ARM. They can use the desired filters to make investment decisions by generating rules for which investment instruments rise or fall together. The application dynamically retrieves current data from Yahoo Finance. This study is a dynamic and expanded update on the existing ones. The exemplary analyses utilized data spanning various periods, up to two years preceding October 9, 2022. According to the study results, significant and strong financial associations in three different investment groups can be obtained. Also, the results show that short-term financial data can be preferred over long-term financial data when examining associations between investment instruments.
  Keywords: association rule mining; ARM; association rules; data mining; apriori; investment decisions; financial associations; finance; foreign exchange rates; cryptocurrencies; stocks.
  
  
• Current account dynamics in selected Southeast Asian economies, using a PSVAR model  
  by Minoas Koukouritakis 
  Abstract: The present paper explores the impact of budget balance shocks, as well as output shocks, on the current account balance of four high-income Southeast Asian countries, namely China, Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore. For performing this analysis, a panel structural VAR model has been implemented, using an extended sample of a more than 40-year period. The estimated impulse-response functions and variance decompositions for common and idiosyncratic shocks provide an indication regarding the way that fiscal and output shocks affect the current account balance. In brief, they imply that, in the short run, the twin divergence hypothesis holds. In other words, an expansionary fiscal policy will improve the current account balance. However, in the long run, the empirical evidence seems to validate the new classical Ricardian equivalence theorem.
  Keywords: current account balance; budget balance; panel SVAR model; impulse responses; structural variance decompositions.
  
  
• Evaluating the effects of recent geopolitical events on German-Russian trade: a CGE framework approach  
  by Nicholas Tsounis, Gerassimos Bertsatos 
  Abstract: This study employs a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the German-Russian trade relationship, with an emphasis on the effects of sanctions on Russian imports following Ukraines invasion. The input-output (I-O) table from 2015 is used in the study to quantify the impact of these restrictions and the changes in Germanys production that follow. Various counterfactual scenarios are explored, which includes quota of 67% and 35% on energy and rest of the Russian imports respectively, as well as 30% ad-valorem tariff. The simulation of this quota scenario on the baseline model shows significant reductions in output and domestic use levels. Additionally, the counterfactual analysis of the 30% ad-valorem import tariff on Russian imports indicates a 1.7% overall price increase and a roughly 3.8% decrease in household welfare due to the sanctions.
  Keywords: German-Russian relationship; CGE model; input-output table; substitution elasticity estimation; constant elasticity of substitution; CES.
  
  
• A note on taxation and economic growth nexus  
  by Constantina Kottaridi, Michael Polemis 
  Abstract: We examine the relationship between taxation and economic growth using several tax variables for a sample of OECD economies over the period 1980-2020. Our dynamic panel GMM threshold model follows the spirit of Seo and Shin (2016), hence we can trace non-linearities in the taxation-growth nexus following recent theoretical developments. We unmask a statistically significant inverted “U-shaped” relationship between effective tax rates and economic growth justifying a more efficient reformulation of public policy toward tax reforms. Further, the mixed evidence surrounding the effects of different tax indicators suggests that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be effective. Instead, tailored tax policies that account for the unique economic contexts of different countries, especially within the OECD framework, could lead to more effective economic outcomes.
  Keywords: taxation; threshold analysis; nonlinear effects; dynamic panel GMM; OECD.
  
  
• Social cohesion as a determinant of economic activity amidst the crises of the 21st century in EU countries  
  by Demosthenes Georgopoulos, Theodore Papadogonas, George Sfakianakis 
  Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the potential impact of social cohesion on the level of economic activity in European Union countries for the 2001-2022 period. Following a macroeconomic approach we consider the effect of inequality on economic activity using income per capita, competitiveness, public debt and deficit and monetary policy as control variables. For the whole period under investigation, we observe that all but one (competitiveness) explanatory variables are statistically significant, also bearing the expected sign. Particularly interesting, though, is the strong and positive relationship between inequality and unemployment. Even more interesting though is that we observe a change in the effect of inequality on unemployment before and after the 2007-2009 crisis when during that second period inequality became the most significant determinant of unemployment, while in the pre-crisis period it was insignificant. Our approach supports the rekindled interest placed on inequality as an important factor affecting social welfare after the great recession.
  Keywords: unemployment; economic crisis; inequality; competitiveness; public debt; public deficit; GDP per capita; monetary policy.