International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (15 papers in press)
Neural Networks and Technical Analysis for Price Prediction: The Case of Borsa Italiana SP MIB
by Angelo Corelli
Abstract: The paper analyses the relationship between common technical analysis indicators and the returns of an index for the period considered. It is expected to find correlation between indicators and index prices, as well as showing clear patterns and potential strategies for investment analysis and portfolio management. As an innovative methodology a mixed analysis is carried out, trying to combine classic signals offered by the indicators with the power of neural networks. The neural network plays an important role in that allows for an accurate regression with efficient error minimization, while giving indications about the concentration of results obtained around some reference values. Through a simple hidden-layer, back-propagation algorithm, regressions give interesting result, in term of the forecasting potential of the analyzed indicators. The final step of the project is to conclude about results and summarize the indication coming from the multivariate stage analysis, commenting on the power of the indicators to reveal potential investment opportunities.
Keywords: Technical Indicator; Neural Network; Normalization; Backpropagation; Steepest Descent.
Explaining the Competitive Advantage in strategic research and technology management for Research and Technology Organizations
by Reza Bandarian
Abstract: The emergence and rapid growth of Research and Technology Organizations and their leading role in knowledge based development and knowledge oriented economy, has drawn a special attention to the effectiveness of Research and Technology Organizations. Effectiveness of Research and Technology Organizations lie in providing value for customers and improve the technological competitiveness of related industry, and create more value for customer equals competitive advantage for the organization. Therefore, effective management of Research and Technology Organizations lie in creating and delivering competitive advantage through creating value for customers and it requires strategic models to explain the competitive advantage in these organizations. Due to the absence of models that explains the competitive advantage in Research and Technology Organizations, this study attempts to define the competitive advantage in strategic research and technology management in Research and Technology Organizations. Regarding to the identity of Research and Technology Organizations which is fully mixed with knowledge and technology, the base of competition in this category of organizations is providing integrated technology-based solutions for related businesses. Hence, the basis of discussion regarding strategic management in this area is interwoven to the concept of rapid technological changes and consequently dynamic capability with emphasis on technological innovation and entrepreneurship. Therefore, the latest theories of strategic management with an emphasis on dynamic capabilities (and evolutionary approaches) were used to develop a model in order to explain the competitive advantage in strategic research and technology management in RTOs.
Keywords: Strategic Research and Technology Management; Research and Technology Organizations; Competitive Advantage; Strategic Management approach.
Process System Resilience: From Risk Management to Business Continuity and Sustainability
by Prerna Jain, Hans Pasman, M. Sam Mannan
Abstract: In general, by competition, energy efficiency, reduced staff, etc., process safety and risk management challenges have increased with a heavier focus of public perception on risks globally. This has necessitated exploring tools for transition from the narrower to a broader approach with goals of business continuity and sustainability for risk management. The application of resilience engineering is being explored for considering the dynamics of socio-technical aspects. This paper presents the systems-based resilience approach for risk management in the process industry and provides a description of process system architecture, functional requirements, and life cycle stages. This paper introduces the Process Resilience Analysis Framework (PRAF) and its four aspects. As an example, the 2012 Chevron Richmond Refinery incident is reviewed, and relationship is established between resilience and sustainability. The conclusion is drawn that using PRAF strengthens the resilience capabilities of a process system to foster business continuity and sustainability.
Keywords: Process Resilience Analysis Framework (PRAF); System Resilience; Business continuity; Sustainability; Process Safety; Risk Management.
Reexamining fire emergency management in Korea
by Kyoo-Man Ha
Abstract: Deadly fires have recently smashed Korea. The article has aimed to see how Korean firefighters have managed various fires for the paramount goal of emergency management. Qualitative content analysis has been used as a key method. Two patterns on fire emergency management have been analyzed, such as firefighter-oriented pattern and people-oriented pattern. The former includes excessive political interests, obsessing about their own welfare, late decision on complicated issues, and the lack of flexible training and exercise, whereas the latter includes excessive risk interests, obsessing about peoples welfare, appropriate decision on complicated issues, and the reliance on flexible training and exercise. The biggest finding is that Korea needs to transform the firefighter-oriented pattern into a people-oriented pattern soon. Similarly, other nations may use the transition as a criterion for reviewing their own systems. This article has approached the Korean topic more comprehensively than previous studies.
Keywords: firefighters; fire safety; comprehensive emergency management; political interests; training and exercise.
Global Cybersecurity Legislation? Factors, Perspective & Implications
by Emmanuel C. OGU, Chiemela OGU, Oluoha Onyekwere
Abstract: As at the time of writing this research, no globally adopted and unified legislation for cybersecurity exists that is currently operational, despite rife global clamours for such a legislative framework. This paper synthesizes and reviews some of the key imposing factors, putting in perspective the surrounding realities that impede the successful actualisation of such a framework, using the qualitative-exploratory research methodology. Also presenting the implications of these factors and associated realities for cyber peacekeeping and the struggle for a utopian global information society, and then proposing recommendations pertaining the feasibility and operability of a global cybersecurity legal framework.
Keywords: Cybersecurity; Cybercrimes; Cybersecurity Legislation; Cyber Peacekeeping; Cyber Policy; Cyber Law.
Application of structuration theory in the context of ICT: the case of DESH microfinance in Bangladesh
by Jashim Uddin Ahmed, Mohammad Jasim Uddin, Kamal Uddin Ahmed, Md. Al-Amin
Abstract: This paper is an exploratory nature of how to adapt structuration theory in the context of information and communication technology (ICT) as used in non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Bangladesh. Structuration theory, developed by Anthony Giddens in 1984, has been used to explain organisational structures with Giddens arguing that structure and human interactions are mutually interdependent. However the main aim of the paper is to evaluate the application of structuration theory in the context of ICT in the microfinance sector of Bangladesh. The case study has been conducted on a leading microfinance institution in Bangladesh (given the pseudonym of DESH). The paper finds that the theory provides a well organised framework to identify organisational and social issues and how they are interconnected to technology. The paper also provides suggestions how technology can be more meaningful to the practitioners.
Keywords: Bangladesh; structuration theory; non-governmental organisation; microfinance; adaptation; information and communication technology; ICT.
Policies for sustainable growth of the SMEs: a study in Indian automotive component manufacturing industry
by Chandra Mouli V.V. Kotturu, Biswajit Mahanty
Abstract: In automotive manufacturing industry, a majority of the component manufacturers are small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), who supply parts and assemblies to the original equipment manufacturers (OEM) on contractual agreements. In recent years, with rapid technological advancements in manufacturing and the entry of transnational corporations (TNCs) in the automotive manufacturing industry, component manufacturers are not able to meet the expectations of the OEMs and are struggling to stay in the value chain. As a result, growth of these enterprises is slowing down. In this research work, a questionnaire survey was administered among automotive component manufacturing SMEs, who supply components to a TNC in India. Using a resource-based view strategy, a dynamic simulation model has been developed to study the performance behaviour of the SMEs and formulate policies for their sustainability. The results show that in the existing scenario, the SMEs would fail to supply the desired products and would not be able to sustain their growth without building technological competence and retraining of the staff. There should also be adequate level of support between the TNC and the SMEs for building technological competence of the SMEs.
Keywords: Small and medium enterprises; subcontracting; Indian automotive industry; system dynamics; policy study.
Risk-informed decision-making with an improved risk-based approach to evaluate plug and abandonment designs
by Henrik Langdalen, Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Jon Tømmerås Selvik, Hans Petter Lohne
Abstract: A risk-based approach has been established to evaluate the quality of plug and abandonment oil and gas well designs that differ from the regulatory requirements on the Norwegian continental shelf. A move away from the prescriptive requirements to a more performance-based approach implies a reliance on the risk-based approach's ability to treat and reflect all the relevant uncertainties. The quality measure in this context is the leakage risk, expressed in terms of failure probability and the associated leakage rate, where uncertainties are treated by probability distributions. It is reasonable to question whether the probability distributions provide adequate representations of all the relevant uncertainties. To improve the current risk-based approach, we propose an improved approach that complements the probability distributions by highlighting the uncertainties rather than the probabilities, assesses the risk of deviation from the assumptions and reflects the knowledge-base.
Keywords: risk assessment; leakage risk; probability of failure; leakage rate; plug and abandonment; P&A; assumption deviation risk; ADR; uncertainty; assumption; background knowledge; risk management; strength of knowledge; SoK.
Drone transportation cost analysis for emergency medical products
by Sushil Raj Poudel, Sudipta Chowdhury, Mohammad Marufuzzaman, Linkan Bian, Manas Mudbari, Gaurav Pradhan
Abstract: A faster mode of transportation that carries emergency medical supplies such as blood bags is consequential to saving lives. Although different road vehicles (e.g., ambulances) are used for this, with increasing rate of congestion, it is becoming increasingly challenging to perform this task on time. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the applicability of drones in transporting emergency medical products and investigate how different parameters (technical and environmental) that affect the drone flight, contribute to the cost of transportation. A number of 'to-be scenarios' have been generated by varying different parameters. Similarly, a case study has been conducted to illustrate the use of different drones on different operational conditions. The outcomes of this study have the potential to help concerned officials make decisions on the feasibility of using drones in transporting emergency medical products, assist policy makers on policy decisions, and contribute to saving the life of victims of traffic accidents.
Keywords: drone; transportation; cost analysis; emergency medical products.
The family firm as an arena for white-collar crime
by Petter Gottschalk, Cecilie Asting
Abstract: In this article, we identify certain aspects of family firms that can cause specific personal motives, organisational opportunities and deviant behaviours. Based on the theory of convenience, we identify organisational opportunities for family members to defraud their own firm. We also identify personal willingness for non-family members to defraud the family firm where they work. We do not argue that white-collar crime is more or less frequent in family firms compared to other kinds of firms. There are several solutions to this problem. Family members should not have voting rights and privileges that cause actions without controls. Non-family members expect firms to pay them fairly and to stimulate them to identify with the business.
Keywords: white-collar crime; convenience theory; agency perspective; family firms; equity perspective.
Examining a research boundary within natural disaster management: qualitative case study
by Kyoo-Man Ha
Abstract: In recognition of scientific research's key role in the field of natural disaster management, this paper aims to remove a research boundary in the Korean setting, with the support of impact assessment theories. The hypothesis is that "if a boundary exists between domestic research and international research in the Korean field of natural disaster management, then it deserves appropriate alternatives." A qualitative case study was used to compare domestic research and international research via government research, business research, college research and non-governmental organisation (NGO) research. Upon acceptance of the hypothesis, a key finding obtained points to Korea's need to develop research boundary awareness. Accordingly, the international community has to setup multilanguage networks, include a research boundary into the framework, accommodate multiple cultures in the research, and consequentially make better decisions when managing natural disasters.
Keywords: research boundary awareness; impact assessment; natural disaster management research; government research; research networks.
Efficiency assessment of waste incineration power plants in China using data envelopment analysis
by Yunna Wu, Xiaoshan Lin
Abstract: China has ranked first in waste incineration power capacity and loading capacity owing to the promotion of favourable policies since 2017. Because of economic and environmental advantages, incineration power generation has become the most promising waste disposal method. To help further promote improve incineration power generation so as to improve the energy efficiency, this paper analyses the power generation and carbon emission reduction efficiency of 31 waste incineration power plants in China using data envelopment analysis. According to the results, all waste incineration power plants studied operate at an acceptable level and 70% of the operating efficiency them is approved to be efficient. As a result, waste incineration power plants of China have higher productive efficiency with lower environmental efficiency. Based on the result, this paper proposes suggestions for the waste incineration power industry in China, which may provide a reference for policy makers and firm managers.
Keywords: waste incineration power plant; power generation efficiency; data envelopment analysis; carbon emissions reductions; China.
Demonetisation, digitalisation in India: towards a cashless economy
by Yerragola Prakash
Abstract: The present demonetisation differs in letter and spirit in terms of its impact on the country's economy front. It was welcomed as a prospective measure to curb the menace of funding terrorism, black money, hoarding of unaccounted assets etc. Informal sector finds it conducive as a viable alternative for pay cash transactions. There has been a substantial growth in GDP for fiscal year 2016 which was at 8%, declined to an all time low of 6.75% in 2017-2018. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana made way to open 28 crore bank accounts across the country. Income declaration scheme and operation clean money recorded an increase by 1.8 million taxpayers additionally during post-November 2016. E-filing has considerably increased by more than 5 Lakh through electronic payment which has realized a fair sum of Rs.150,000 billion. Curbing of non-performance assets gave a further push to investment opportunities.
Keywords: demonetisation; digitalisation; cashless economy; black money; electronic payments.
Impact of disruptive technology on human resource management practices
by Deborah Sharon Stanley, Vaneeta Aggarwal
Abstract: Technology is everywhere and it is changing the way things work, hence it is disruptive. Human resource management (HRM) practices have also been affected by disruptive technology, and it is in the form of artificial intelligence, networks and robotics. Artificial intelligence is used in HRM in the areas of recruitment, legal work, monitoring employees, coaching and performance management. Robots are used for interview and selection process, learning, communication, and also in controlling harassment. They are also used as cobots (collaborative robots) alongside humans in workplace. Networks are used in the processes of recruitment, learning and development, career path and collaboration. This paper summarises the impact and after effects of disruptive technology on HRM practices.
Keywords: human resource management; HRM; disruptive technology; artificial intelligence; robotics; networks; electronic human resource management; E-HRM.
An empirical study for sustainable policy intervention in urban drinking water supply management using performance indicators
by Dharmendra Kumawat, Roopali Sharma
Abstract: This paper examines integration of performance indicators (PIs) and public-private partnership (PPP) in urban drinking water supply management for sustainable business. Our study takes evidence from a large Indian city, capturing the data for five years. The zones are treated as cost/profit centres for optimising the present value of PI. The specific PI shows significant performance difference due to operator, primarily examined by discriminant analysis and further proven statistically by independent sample t-test. The study considers four performance indicators which take care of consumer risk and financial risk of the operations. The results are compared with other cities to outline the broader trends. The study affirms that the optimisation of present value of PI may be used to present it for new business vistas. It also helps to convince all stakeholders about operational efficiency of water supply infrastructure which may become an objective basis for new policy intervention.
Keywords: operation and maintenance; O&M; performance indicator; policy; public-private partnership; sustainable.