Forthcoming and Online First Articles

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM)

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International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (13 papers in press)

Regular Issues

  • PREDICTION OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN INDIAN CORPORATE SECTOR: AN IMPROVEMENT OVER ALTMANS Z-SCORE MODEL   Order a copy of this article
    by Gurmeet Singh, Ravi Singla 
    Abstract: Financial distress is the situation when a firm faces difficulty regarding the repayment of its financial obligations on due time which may result into business failure. Prediction of financial distress is necessary because of its negative consequences for company, investors, creditors and also for economy. Earlier prediction of financial distress can be used as warning signal to take corrective actions and to avoid the future bankruptcy. Several models have been developed from time to time to predict the probability of failure and among these models Altmans Z-score model is commonly used in practice as a measure of financial distress. This study aims to re-estimate the widely used Altmans model and an attempt is made to develop an improved model by adding new variables to Altmans model. For this purpose, logistic regression is applied and to validate the accuracy of the developed models two diagnostic tests viz. testing sample and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve are used. Results of testing sample showed that Model_2 achieved higher predictive power than Model_1 in all the years from 2011 to 2015. Similar results are also found when accuracy of the model is measured by area under the ROC curve. Area under the curve for Model_1 and Model_2 is found to be 0.965 and .988 respectively. It can be concluded that re-estimated model has better predictive power which can be used to predict financial distress and to avoid future bankruptcy.
    Keywords: Altman’s model; Business failure; Financial distress prediction; Financial ratios; Logistic regression; Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.

  • A modelling and management approach to risks in reverse logistics implementation   Order a copy of this article
    by Himanshu Prajapati, Ravi Kant, Ravi Shankar 
    Abstract: This research aims to identify and model the Reverse Logistics (RL) risk variables to estimate the risks associated with their deployment. Furthermore, it suggests risk management techniques to execute the RL implementation effectively. The Delphi technique, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and Fuzzy Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (F-MICMAC) create a hybrid research framework in this study. Delphi determines the RL risk factors, and ISM creates a structural model to examine the contextual connection between them, followed by F-MICMAC classification. The key risk elements connected with RL implementation include government policy risk (driving power = 13.8 and effectiveness = 13.1) and management policy risk (driving power = 12.2 and effectiveness = 12.1). This research recommends mitigating the critical risk factors for effective RL deployment. Financial and Economic Risk (dependence power = 13.5 and effectiveness = -13.5) is the only risk at the top level of the ISM-F-MICMAC model. It is the ultimately driven variable in the system. Major RL risk management strategies include collaboration with network partners, risk-sharing with stakeholders, strong mutual trust among collaborators, improved forecasting techniques, and continuous information sharing. The current evaluation is extremely beneficial in identifying the driving and dependence power and the efficacy of a certain risk, which helps in segregating them for RL implementation.
    Keywords: Reverse Logistics; Risks; Reverse Supply Chain; Risk Management; Delphi; Interpretive Structural Modeling; Fuzzy Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification.

  • A Multi-level Model for the Successful Turnaround of Declining Manufacturing Organizations An Investigative Study   Order a copy of this article
    by Sai Maitreya Ganti Mahapatruni, Meher Sai Saran Bolisetty, Sai Babu Bonthu, Ganesh Seethepalli, P.G. Saleeshya 
    Abstract: Indian Manufacturing organizations are under constant scrutiny. The entry of global supply-chain and manufacturing players made it difficult for Indian manufacturers to establish themselves in the competitive market. This led to the continual decline of firms that were unable to cope with the competition. The decrease in a firms performance further demoralizes owners and stakeholders, forcing them to sell the firm to global players. This study presents a Two leveled model that divides the entire working of a manufacturing firm into 6 Impact areas where firms must focus on improving their performance. The model consists of various reasons for an organizations decline and presents suitable strategies to overcome these reasons. A survey was conducted based on the developments from the model from 5 manufacturing clusters to compare their stand against leading performers and to suggest areas of improvement with the help of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Pugh Matrix methodology. The comparison involved a biological method that birds use to differentiate their eggs from a cuckoos egg. This method can be used for performance measurement and suggestions for performance Improvement of any manufacturing firm among the identified clusters.
    Keywords: Supply chain; decline; performance improvement; turnaround; Impact Areas; Analytical Hierarchy Process; Pugh Matrix Methodology; Biological methodology.

  • Carving Strategic Resilience Roadmap for Indian Automotive Industry Using Hybrid Analytical Approach   Order a copy of this article
    by Aditya Gautam, Asif Akhtar, Mrinalini Shah, Umang Soni 
    Abstract: The automotive industry is in its transformation phase. The increasing environmental concerns such as temperature rise, pollution in major cities, and global warming, leading to new emission guidelines (NEG) are the major driving forces. The NEG has not only exposed the industry to challenges but is also ready to offer oceans of opportunities to the industry players. The principle aim of this study is to conceptualize the strategic intent and provide a framework for industry professionals to deal with challenges and threats compensated by industry strength and new opportunities effectively. A systematic hybrid analytical approach combining SWOT analysis, analytical hierarchy process, and external and internal factor evaluation modeling is applied to calculate the score of each environmental factor. Later, the results of the external and internal factor scores are plotted on the SPACE graph. A set of alternative strategic actions has been recommended and prioritized using the QSPM to deal with these challenges effectively.
    Keywords: Business continuity; Bharat Stage – VI; Electric vehicles; External Factor Evaluation (EFE); Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE); Automotive industry; Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM); Strategic Position and Action Evaluation (SPACE); Strategy; Strengths; Weaknesses; Opportunities & Threats (SWOT); Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP); strategies.

  • TQM and Hospitals Performance: A Bibliometric Analysis   Order a copy of this article
    by Fahmi Natigor Nasution, Erlina Erlina, Yeni Absah, Rujiman Rujiman 
    Abstract: This article aims to use bibliometric analysis to examine existing works and literature on TQM and Performance to explore the concepts evolving journey since its conception. This study applies bibliometric approaches such as citation, co-citation, and co-occurrence of author keywords based on a bibliometric analysis of 137 publications extracted from the Scopus database between 2004 and September 2021. This research examines the kind and direction of research on TQM and hospital performance undertaken over the last few decades. It also identifies the most influential writers, journals, institutions, and countries concerning TQM and hospital performance. This study might provide academics and practitioners with detailed insights into the TQM and hospital performance concepts, which can subsequently be used as a reference for strategic efforts.
    Keywords: TQM; Hospital; Performance; Bibliometric Analysis; Scopus.

  • Assessing the Factors Affecting the Liquidity Risk in Jordanian Commercial Banks: A Panel Data Analysis   Order a copy of this article
    by Nusiebeh Nahar Falah Alrwashdeh, Rizwan Ahmed, Muhammad Hasan Danish, Qasim Shah 
    Abstract: One of the main purpose of banks risk management is to control credit and liquidity risk which are the main sources of risk. This research explores factors affecting liquidity risk of commercial banks operating in Jordan, spanning from 2003 through 2017. The sample of the study includes all commercial banks by employing pooled OLS and panel 2SLS econometric techniques. Findings of the study show that bank size, return on assets (ROA), capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), risk, non-performing loans (NPL), T-equality and T-liability have a positive impact on liquidity risk. While return on equity (ROE) shows the negative and significant impact on the liquidity risk. This study suggests that authorities should trace and monitor the determined internal factors that have a negative impact on the liquidity of banks to minimize bank run chances.
    Keywords: Liquidity risk; Commercial bank; Jordan; ROA; CAR; Panel data.

  • Founder-entrepreneurs personality characteristics and their influence on risk strategies within High-tech Software SMEs in China   Order a copy of this article
    by Yanzhi Huang, Bidyut Baruah, Tony Ward 
    Abstract: Although the Chinese high-tech market has grown rapidly in recent years, only a limited number of entrepreneurial studies have focused on these areas particularly the significant role of founder-entrepreneurs and the impact of their personality characteristics during their companys development. Now with COVID-19 and its complexity, there are various ongoing challenges for these founder-entrepreneurs something which needs further research. To fill this gap, this study selected 9 successful Chinese high-tech software SMEs with an objective to understand the risk attitude and strategies of their founder-entrepreneurs. And as part of the study, the Chinese Big Five Personality Inventory Brief Version (CBF-PI-B) was chosen. The analysis showed how different personality traits such as Neuroticism, Agreeableness and Openness can have a high impact on founder-entrepreneurs risk attitude, decision making and strategy selection. This paper makes an important contribution to the literature on Chinese SMEs and risk management during COVID-19.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Personality traits; Chinese High-tech market; SMEs; Risk management; Big-5 Personality.

  • Learning from Operational Planning   Order a copy of this article
    by D.C. (Dianka) Zuiderwijk, R. (Riana) Steen, Pedro (P.N.P) Ferreira 
    Abstract: Institutional and regulatory approaches to planning are still primarily based on linearity and predictability and show a trend towards centralized control and prescriptive planning. A second trend recognizes unpredictability in complex operations and focuses on dealing with the changeable nature of work. We refer to this adaptive type of planning as operational planning (OP). In this paper, we argue that a shift towards more control and prescriptive planning can undermine this critical adaptive capability in the completion of complex operations. Triggered by lessons drawn from three different studies, we demonstrate that fostering this adaptive capability in complex operations necessitates a shift in how uncertainty is addressed in institutional and regulatory systems. While exploratory, our findings add to a more complete picture of OP and its relevance to the reliability of complex operations.
    Keywords: complex operations; operational planning; uncertainty; adaptive capability.

  • Fuzzy expert system and information systems auditing: an approach for risk assessment in audit pre-planning.   Order a copy of this article
    by Ismail OUAADI, Mohammed EL HADDAD 
    Abstract: The complexity of control and auditing framework deployment, and the uncertainty surrounding the risk assessment in the pre-auditing phase, require from us to find an efficient solution for the auditing mission. While Fuzzy logic has shown good results in various fields and especially in auditing (fraud, IT, security...), we attempt to combine it with experts knowledge method for risk assessment. This work aims to develop a solution that can resolve this complexity and uncertainty via a fuzzy expert system. By using python frameworks and a web-based approach the proposed solution was developed. The DeLone and McLean IS success measurement is used to assess the usability and acceptance of the developed solution by auditors and experts.
    Keywords: Fuzzy Logic System; Information System Governance; Auditing; Risk Assessment Approach; IS Success Model.

  • Value relevance of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM): the Indian case   Order a copy of this article
    by Sankalp Naik, Dhruv Jauhar, Ch V. V. S. N. V. Prasad 
    Abstract: Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-10 had already precipitated the need for a highly agile and holistic approach to managing firm risks. The ever-increasing complexities of risks have bolstered enterprise risk management (ERM)s relevance in academic and practitioner circles. Against the backdrop of the myriads of banking frauds and accounting scandals, Indian regulators and other stakeholders took notice of ERM, especially ERMs potential to improve corporate governance and protect and augment firm value. Consequently, several firms began implementing ERM in India. In this paper, we attempt to assess the role of ERM in value creation. We focus on companies listed on the Indian stock exchange. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first empirical study with a cross-sectional analysis for India and is among the very few ERM studies conducted for a developing country. Our analysis confirms the positive influence of the extent of ERM engagement on firm value. Among control variables, firm size had a negative impact on firm value, while financial leverage and profitability positively influenced firm value. This paper makes a strong case for ERM as an essential arm of a firms corporate governance structure and confirms its role as a wealth protector and creator in a developing country setting.
    Keywords: Enterprise risk management; ERM Index; chief risk officer; firm value; ERM engagement; CoVID-19.

  • Managing Organizational Effectiveness during a Pandemic: A Conceptual Framework   Order a copy of this article
    by Aastha Dhoopar, Priyanka Sihag 
    Abstract: The unprecedented outburst of the destructive coronavirus has wretched the whole world lately. The current paper discusses the influence of the coronavirus outbreak on organisations, the strategies that can be employed, and the active role of organisational leaders to support the employees and the organisations in such difficult times. This paper integrates the concepts from organisational behaviour, strategic human resource management, and crisis management and proposes a conceptual framework emphasising the role of human resources in managing the effectiveness of organisations. Business continuity management and scenario planning are two significant strategies that can be useful for organisations to sail through unfavourable times. The study brings to light the interventions on part of the organisational leadership and the HR managers to support the employees and the organisations alike. The study also stresses on the pandemic as an opportunity to innovate and attain competitive advantages over other organisations.
    Keywords: organisational effectiveness; crisis management; leadership; coronavirus; COVID-19.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2023.10051485
     
  • Graphical process safety techniques for strengthening safety and resilience in Austrian SMEs   Order a copy of this article
    by Alexander Stolar, Anton Friedl 
    Abstract: In most countries, small and medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of economic performance. While progress and innovation are born in these companies, process safety often takes a back seat due to a lack of risk awareness, resources or experience. Risk assessments using process safety techniques are typically considered too complicated, time-consuming, or expensive. While large companies employ their own staff for this purpose, SMEs get along with the protective measures required by law. The paper aims to select techniques from industrial practice in order to provide SMEs with a path to a more safe future. In addition to a literature study on process safety techniques, their applicability is evaluated with a survey in SMEs using graphical process safety techniques. The study showed a high level of agreement among the participants on the proposed techniques and examples. More public awareness work regarding useful process safety techniques would be a future task.
    Keywords: process safety techniques; SMEs; resilience engineering; process safety management.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2023.10052808
     
  • Organizational Safeguarding; A New Imperative for Management?   Order a copy of this article
    by Vitumbiko Andrew Ngwira, Abubaker Qutieshat 
    Abstract: Safeguarding is increasingly becoming a buzzword in organisational management. This has come up due to the rising cases of workplace bullying, emotional abuse, and harassment. While many humanitarian organisations have embraced the concept, safeguarding is having a snail’s pace in penetrating the management field. Understanding the lapses in organisational safeguarding is crucial to creating a safe work environment for employees and customers or beneficiaries. This conceptual paper looks at safeguarding and its growing need in business management. This study examines safeguarding not only from the perspective of children and vulnerable individuals but also employees. The discussion draws insights from various literatures on workplace safety and harassment. The discussion has implications for how organisations can implement policies that not only deter harassment but advance workplace safety. The study also confirms that organisational safeguarding has a significant slot within the broader business management field.
    Keywords: safeguarding; business management; abuse; workplace bullying; employee safety.
    DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2023.10053186