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International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management
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International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (21 papers in press)
Abstract: This paper explored the management of risks and the continuation of business in the Public Sector more specifically, the Western Cape Government of South Africa in the event of a disruption. It is argued that the current environment is continuously evolving, organizations are therefore not immune to change and disruption. The inability of an organisation such as Government to manage and facilitate business continuity processes in anticipation of disruptive events would compromise the delivery of services to the citizens. The study adopted an interpretivist philosophy that allowed for the exploration of the theory and to obtain rich in-depth data from the participants. As such a qualitative approach and the use of semi structured interviews and 2 focus groups of 4 individuals each were used among 6 departments of the 13 departments of the Western Cape Government. From the findings, it is argued that the risk and business continuity management processes were not fully understood. It can be asserted that Government was not well run as it was not adequately prepared to enable continuity. The data collected suggest that consideration should be given to have business continuity embedded within the existing processes of Government to manage disruptions appropriately. It is recommended that business continuity could be adopted by organizations as a holistic approach to manage threats and risks. This is because business continuity can be used to identify the priorities of an organization as well as prepared solutions to address disruptive threats.
Keywords: Business Continuity; Risk Management; Governance; Public Service.
Using Stress Testing Model in Measuring the Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Jordanian Commercial Banks
by Fouzan ALQaisi, Asem Tahtamouni
Abstract: this paper aims to answer multiple questions regarding Jordanian bank stability under credit, market, and liquidity shock scenarios in order to evaluate bank solvency and liquidity. The paper will use Stress Testing Model to measure the effect of the financial crisis in 2008 on the Jordanian commercial banks. It will conduct various stress testing scenarios on 13 Jordanian banks with the aim of better understanding the risk profile of the Jordanian banking system. Two spreadsheet models are utilized to conduct credit, market and liquidity shocks to assess the performance of the banks under each shock. The findings of this paper demonstrate that the Jordanian banking system is generally able to withstand reasonable shocks of each type, with some addressable weaknesses such as collateral under-provisioning and liquid asset shortcomings.
Keywords: Stress Testing Model; Financial Crisis; Bank Stability; Commercial Banking Sector; Jordan.
SCALING BAD DEBTS IN INDIAN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS
by Renu Arora
Abstract: This paper empirically evaluates eight bank-specific credit risk determinants to explore the extent to which the Indian public sector commercial banks have been able to restrain their stressed commercial loans and check the NPA growth in lending to business and industry. The study analyzes the inherent relationships and causality between these credit risk variables for 12 banks, for 11 years (2006-17), immediately before large scale merger of some of these banks, using ratios, growth rates, linear simple and multiple regression analysis, and Standard Granger causality tests. The study indicates that higher restructuring of loans and advances by the public sector banks has increased their non-performing loans, though causality between the two could not be established. A statistical causality relation at 10 % level of significance between net non-performing assets and capital adequacy ratios has been found. The study also indicates capital adequacy ratios causing changes in Net Interest Margin in the both, the best and worst performing public sector banks the State Bank of India and the United Bank of India. These cause and effect relationships have contributed towards a new understanding about key credit risk parameters in commercial lending by banks.
Keywords: Risk-weighted assets; Debt restructuring; Sensitive sectors; Net interest Margin; Capital Adequacy ratios; Data analytics; Stressed assets; Operational efficiency.
Towards Adequate Cybersecurity Risk Management in SMEs
by CHRISTOPHER MOTURI, Nabihah Abdulrahim, Daniel Orwa
Abstract: Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are core to the growth of the African economy. Their continued dependency on technology is driving them deeper into risks. SMEs that are developing technology-based solutions need an effective way to manage cyber risks. This study sought to determine the key cybersecurity risks faced by SMEs in Kenya that develop technology-based solutions. Using a case study approach and based on the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) cybersecurity framework, an in-depth evaluation of the cybersecurity risk management practices within a selected SME was undertaken. The paper reports on the components identified as critical in the management of cyber risks within SMEs. An implementation strategy has been developed to provide a roadmap to assist in the management of cyber risks as part of their business risks. Insights provided will assist the Government and regulatory bodies assess the adequacy of current cybersecurity legislations and guidelines. This study has practical implications for SME managers in fostering a cybersecurity culture in this growing sector.
Keywords: Cybercrime; Cyber Risk; Cybersecurity; NIST; Risk Management; SME.
An Analysis of CAPM Efficiency: The Case of the DFM Market in Dubai
by Angelo Corelli, Siham Achcar, Anna Chekanova, Rim Ghalayini, Nazli Orazalyyeva
Abstract: The project analyzes the DFM market in terms of efficiency, by applying portfolio theory to the construction of the efficient frontier and the Security Market Line (SML). Moreover, a Security Market Line analysis is performed in order to obtain buy or sell recommendations. The dataset includes 35 companies that are currently listed and showing reliable data evolution over time. The constrained minimization, not allowing for short selling so to mimic the regulatory environment on DFM, shows that all stocks are below the Capital Market Line. Unconstrained optimization is not possible due to the variance-covariance matrix not being positive-definite. The SML analysis shows that signals are contradictory and equally split between buy and sell, resulting in uncertainty about the future trend of the market.
Keywords: Efficiency; Portfolio; Optimization; Frontier; Capital Market Line; Security Market Line.
Macro-Financial analysis of Value-at-Risk from Banking stocks in Indian Scenario
by Riyanka Baral, Sankalp Purushottam Naik, Debasis Patnaik
Abstract: Value-at-risk (VaR) of banking stocks can be affected both by the financial ratio and macroeconomic variables. A balanced panel data of 28 Indian banks from 2005-2018 was used for the analysis. The findings of the study reveal that return on assets, consumer price index, gross domestic product, unemployment, and total investment significantly affect VaR. These findings bear policy implications for the banking sector and other stakeholders. Inflation mitigation should continue as the cornerstone of Indian monetary policy. The positive relation of VaR with unemployment demands that targeted employment approaches at urban and rural levels should be undertaken on a war footing along with labor-intensive infrastructure development providing a long-term perspective to the issue. This would help generate higher credit off-take for small scale investments at economy-wide levels, consumer demand increases with banking liquidity being put to productive use, leading to less non-performing assets and dynamic banking behavior.
Keywords: Value-At-Risk; Financial Ratios; Macroeconomic; Banks; Fixed and Random Effect; Cash-Deposit Ratio; Consumer Price Index; Gross Domestic Product; Unemployment; Non-performing Assets.
A Framework for IS/IT Disaster Recovery Planning
by Rafi Ashrafi
Abstract: As organizations increasingly rely on data, information, and technology, they are exposed to various disasters such as power outages, natural disasters, fraud, terrorist attacks and viruses. These disasters may cause disruption to the organizations services and may have an impact on business (Karim, 2011). As a result, Information Systems/ (IS)/Information Technology (IT) Disaster Recovery Planning (DRP) has received considerable attention among the practitioners and researchers during the past two decades (Lewis, 2003, Nelson 2006). Literature shows that there is a lack of suitable frameworks for IT DRP (Kelly 2012; Baham, Hirschheim, Calderon, Kisekka, 2017). To fill this gap, this study identifies a set of 10 Critical Success Factors (CSFs) from previous research, defines the effectiveness of IT DRP, and proposes a framework for IS/IT DRP. The framework establishes a relationship between CSFs and DRP effectiveness. This study will help organizations in adopting a suitable framework and improving their disaster recovery efforts in order to be more effective in dealing with IS/IT disasters.
Keywords: Information Technology; Information Systems; Disaster Recovery Planning; Framework; Critical Success Factors.
Engagement Risk Management Instrument for the Zimbabwean Audit Firms
by Varaidzo Denhere, Tankiso Moloi
Abstract: Following reputational damage caused amongst other things by engaging high risk clients and a general lack of engagement risk guidelines for audit firms in Zimbabwe, this study aimed at developing an ERMI to be considered for utilisation by Zimbabwean audit firms. The proposed ERMI will guide audit partners and chief risk officers in assessing engagement risk for potential clients before accepting or rejecting them for an audit engagement. A Delphi process was employed to a panel of engagement risk experts, namely audit partners and chief risk officers. At the time of data collection, there were twenty registered audit firms in Zimbabwe. In line with the requirement of the Delphi Technique which requires that a variety of rounds is held with experts, these firms were divided into two samples. In the first phase, which included ten audit firms, interviews were conducted with six firms where both the audit partners and chief risk officers were interviewed. This process yielded twelve responses. In the second phase, there were eight firms that responded, again both the audit partners and chief risk officers, yielding sixteen responses. This study has identified engagement risk factors that should be assessed before client acceptance in the Zimbabwean context. It has further provided the ERMI which could be considered and adopted by Zimbabwean firms when they make a decision whether to accept or reject a potential client. It is envisaged that this instrument, will be pivotal in the reduction of reputational risk associated with litigation that follows when the auditee fails. Other countries could adopt the approach utilised to get to the ERMI for country specific ERMIs. It is envisaged that the proposed ERMI could assist in reducing the risk of engaging potentially risky clients which has potential to damage the reputation of an audit firm or result in the audit firm being litigated against. As such, there are two primary beneficiaries of the ERMI, namely; the small and medium audit enterprises as well as large audit firms. Small and medium audit enterprises with no resources to conduct a thorough engagement risk with potential clients could adopt the proposed ERMI and build this into their processes. This would assist them to identify engagement risk factors that should be assessed before they make a decision. In this regard, a decision whether to accept or reject a potential client would have been informed by an objective process. Should larger audit firms have no engagement risk processes in place, the process explained for the small and medium audit enterprises could be adopted. If a large audit firm has the engagement risk processes in place, this could be enhanced by applying the proposed ERMI as an additional objective screening instrument embedded in the firms processes to make a determination on whether to accept or reject a potential client. This study contributes new knowledge in the form of engagement risk factors and an engagement risk management instrument envisaged to provide guidance towards client acceptance or rejection.
Keywords: Engagement Risk Instrument; Engagement Risk Factors; Client acceptance; Business Continuity; Risk Management.
An Empirical Assessment of Information Security Best Practices and Information Technology Disaster Recovery Readiness in Ghanaian Micro-Finance Sector
by Paul Danquah, Stephen Bekoe, Victor Gordon
Abstract: Fundamental to the smooth operation of any organization in the financial sector is the need to have its information secured. This research set out to critically assess information security best practices and Information Technology (IT) disaster recovery readiness in Ghanaian Micro-Finance Sector. The criteria used as the basis for assessment are the existence of documented policies, the existence of designated personnel and the usage of internationally recognized benchmarks for information security best practices. The criteria used for IT disaster recovery readiness were the existence of documented IT disaster recovery plans, evidence of IT disaster recovery plan's implementation and the existence and evidence of best practices of IT disaster recovery readiness. The research approach was a mixed-method where the data collection, data analysis and interpretation of the evidence was purposefully done with triangulation. A summarized analysis of the data gathered indicates that a generally poor information security practice exists within the microfinance industry in Ghana. IT disaster recovery readiness is however relatively better with regular backups being a prominent feature. In view of the foundational theory of protection motivation theory, it is suggested that future research delves into the reason for the observed phenomena.
Keywords: Information Technology; Disaster Recovery; Micro-Finance; Ghana.
Dynamic and Adaptive Resilience of Small Businesses after the 2015 Nepal Earthquake
by Ali Asgary, Sushan Pradhan, JiaYan Wang
Abstract: This study examines small business resilience following the 2015 Nepal earthquake using data collected through a questionnaire nearly 2 years after the earthquake. The findings show that most sampled businesses were not equipped with inherent and built-in resilience because majority of them did not have risk management and business continuity plans. However, findings confirm that majority of the sampled businesses resumed operations reasonably quick and most of them made a full recovered within two years after the disaster demonstrating high adaptive and dynamic resilience. While significant correlation between the earthquake impacts and the dynamic resilience was not observed, financial factors, particularly business use of their savings and family support showed highest correlations with dynamic resilience and recovery. Findings also reveal that small businesses in a developing country such as Nepal can become sufficiently resilient if they are provided with the resources and support to enhance their static and inherent resilience.
Keywords: Nepal Earthquake; Business resilience; dynamic resilience; business continuity; risk management.
Modelling for default risk in companies: Evidences from Jordan
by Abdullah Aldaas
Abstract: Financial data provides some indication of impending failure and distress in a company. This research is focused on studying default and failures in Jordanian companies based on internal financial information of the firms. The study uses financial ratios of 50 companies from manufacturing and services sector, including 40 running and 10 failed companies, for the time period 2015-2017. The methodology includes qualitative analysis, factor analysis and logistic regression to analyze and interpret defaults and failures in selected firms. One of the significant finding of the research is that sales, equity capital and Return on Equity are good predictors of defaults and distress in companies.
Keywords: firm default; logistic regression; Jordan; failed companies; financial distress.
Adoption of Cloud Computing in Business Continuity Management for Container Terminal Operations in South Africa
by Nixon Muganda Ochara, Felix Kutame, Armstrong Kadyamatimba
Abstract: This study responds to recent calls for improving pre- and post-disaster business continuity by investigating cloud computing adoption factors relevant to the modernization of port operations. A Fit-Viability Model (FVM) is used as the analytical framework for the study. An interpretive, qualitative methodology, employing the use of a case study of the ports in South Africa was adopted. The interview data collected was analyzed thematically and the findings revealed several insights: the first is that a digitalized BCM architecture fits the cloud computing model. Secondly, the cloud computing model is a viable model that can contribute to managing complex and differentiated organizations. For such complex organizations, viability can be realized by harnessing collective intelligence (CI) for more effective BCM. Lastly, to realize digitally-enabled BCM and harness the power of CI, there is a need for a rethinking of strategy towards the adoption of an Intelliport strategy or smart BCM for ports.
Keywords: Business Continuity; Disaster Recovery; Cloud Computing; Fourth Industrial Revolution; Business Continuity Management; Digital Transformation.
Examining the transition of natural disaster management for climate change
by Kyong-Jin Park, Bong-Woo Lee, Kyoo-Man Ha
Abstract: Climate change has started to fearfully impact the living organisms on the planet, whether or not it sounds believable. This article aims to study the transitions in climate-related disasters to mitigate the related risks. To this end, qualitative content analysis has been used as the key methodology. The paper cross-examines three periods of climate change (before climate change, the 1st half of climate change, and the 2nd half of climate change) in conjunction with three levels of natural disaster management (international level, national level, and local level). Following this elaboration, the paper suggests three theoretical phases along which disaster management is structured: provincialism-oriented management (19511990), patriotism-oriented management (19912040), and survivalism-oriented management (20412100). While the ignorance of negative climate change is culpable, all stakeholders in the field need to address international cooperation, sustainability, education, and training for survival of the fittest.
Keywords: climate-related disasters; provincialism; patriotism; survivalism; ignorance.
EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND HUMAN RESOURCE ACCOUNTING ON A SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
by Oluwatoyin Esther Akinbowale, Heinz Eckart Klingelhöfer, Mulatu Fekadu Zerihun
Abstract: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Human Resource Accounting (HRA) are concepts that facilitate an improved socio-economic environment. An active corporate social responsibility can promote the reputation of an organisation alongside with other significant benefits such as improvement in the management of human resources, effective risk mitigation and management measures, robust customer relationship with sound innovations. In respect of the aforementioned, this study seeks to explore some significant impact of corporate social responsibility and human resource accounting on the socio-economic environment. It uses a linear programming approach to expound the relationship that exist between the variables under consideration and to explain the possible outcome of the integration of CSR and HRA in relation to their impact on the socio-economic environment. The study finds that CSR and HRA have common features: cost and assets. HRA strictly recognises the cost of human assets like employee training to meet environmental, technological, and socio-economic current demands. Based on the findings of this study, the integrated view of HRA and CSR is recommended. Depending on the organisation
Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR); Human Resource Accounting (HRA); Linear Programming; Socio-economic Environment; Social Cost.
THE INVESTIGATION ON THE IMPACT OF DOWNSIDE RISK ON FINANCIAL DISTRESS
by Rusmawati Ismail, Rohani Md-Rus, Kamarun Nisham Taufil Mohd.
Abstract: This study investigates if semi-variance could be used to predict financial distress experienced by companies on Bursa Malaysia. A panel data set of 12,906 firm-year observations from 2004 to 2017 is used. Logistic regression is employed to test the hypothesis that risk could predict the occurrence of financial distress after controlling for leverage, profitability and liquidity. Meanwhile, financial distress is measured by using two approaches: negative shareholders equity and shareholders equity of less than 25% of issued and paid-up capital. The result indicates that downside risk is positively significant in explaining financial distress under both approaches. The study has significant insights for investors, creditors and other interested parties where they can use semi-variance or downside risk in forecasting financial distress. By employing effective risk assessment techniques firms can avoid financial distress and can attract potential investors for their firms.
Keywords: Bursa Malaysia; downside risk; financial distress; logistic regression; leverage; profitability.
Identification and Evaluation of Risks in Supply Chain of Milk (A Case Study)
by Abdollah Shahraki, Mohammad Ghorbani, Ahmadreza Asgharpour Masouleh
Abstract: The purpose of present research was to identify and analyze the potential risks in the milk supply chain network by using the Failure Mode, Effects and Critically Analysis approach during 2016 until 2018. The criteria of severity, the probability of occurrence and the severity of the diagnosis were used to assess these risks. The research findings showed that the most important risks belong to sub-systems of ranchers and then milk processing factories. Main risks were prioritized and addressed that needed to focus and employing different risk management strategies to improve the performance of the chain. Government policies fluctuations related to producers was determined as the most important negative risks of the whole chain. Potential impacts of main risks have been identified in the form of impact on costs, quality, and production. Seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand, the elimination of production subsidies, the ineffectiveness of the pricing, the dependence of production on subsidized government was the potential causes of the main risks in the studied chain.
Keywords: Milk supply chain; Risk Management; Failure Mode; Effects and Critically Analysis (FMECA).
The feasibility of implementing the Committee of Sponsoring Organisations of the Treadway Commission (COSO) Enterprise Risk Management framework in South African Small, Medium and Micro enterprises: A literature review
by Bruce Masama, Juan-Pierre Bruwer, Leon Gwaka
Abstract: The socio-economic contributions of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) have proved that they are capable of rejuvenating economies. Hence, governments around the globe have placed their focus on the development and promotion of SMMEs. Unfortunately, in South Africa, SMMEs have one of the highest failure rates in the world and the lack of properly developed risk management skills, is among the main reasons for the latter dispensation. Over the years, an array of formal Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) frameworks have been developed, all with the intent to enhance risk management processes however, research suggests that South African SMMEs neglect the implementation of ERM frameworks, including that of the COSO ERM framework. Considering that the COSO ERM framework is among the most popular ERM frameworks in the world, the primary objective of this study was to ascertain whether this frameworks 2017 revised version is feasible for South African SMMEs to implement, notwithstanding the limited risk management skills evident in the country. Non-empirical research was conducted, taking on the form of an exploratory literature review, which took on a qualitative research methodology. A total of 405 literature sources were identified of which only 99 were included and analysed based on a predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. From the research conducted, it appears that the implementation of the 2017 revised COSO ERM framework is feasible for implementation by South African SMMEs, at least in a theoretical dispensation.
Keywords: Risk management; SMMEs; enterprise risk management; ERM; ERM frameworks; South Africa; COSO ERM framework.
Emerging Risks and Business Preparedness in the Multifaceted Risk Landscape: Evidence from Malaysian Publicly Listed Companies
by NAZLIATUL ANIZA ABDUL AZIZ, NORLIDA ABDUL MANAB
Abstract: The recent outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) has been recognised as one of the black swan event that poses challenges and global stress. Given the potentially devastating implications of novel coronavirus as a significant emerging risk, many companies have eventually experienced substantial losses that could threaten their survival. Hence, this study adopts triangulation approach to identify the emerging risks that are of greatest concern and commonly used techniques to address such risks among the publicly listed companies in Malaysia. The quantitative findings show that four key areas of emerging risks which are economic risk, environmental, risk, social risk and geopolitical risk are prioritised by the risk managers in their organisation. While, the qualitative findings indicate that strategic planning, key risk indicators (KRIs), business continuity plan and risk maps are commonly used methods to address emerging risks. Theoretically, the findings contribute to an understanding of the emerging risks and the techniques used to better assess the emerging risks present in the multifaceted risk landscape.
Keywords: "Emerging risks; triangulation; publicly listed companies; multifaceted risk landscape; Malaysia".
Antecedents and Consequences of Internal Crisis Communication (ICC) in Malaysian High-risk Industry: A Framework and Agenda for Future Research
by Bahtiar Mohamad, Adamu Abbas Adamu, Haslina Halim
Abstract: In crisis management research, internal crisis communication (ICC) has been identified to be a new area of study. In fact, extant literature has indicated a lack of theoretical development on the dimensions of ICC. This paper aims to make provision accordingly for conceptual clarity on ICC in order to unfold its underlying antecedents and consequences from the employees perspectives in Malaysia high-risk industry through a proposed conceptual framework. Although, it is consolidated that important roles are being played by ICC in strategic management planning as there exists high relevance of managing positive relationship significantly between multiple stakeholders and corporate survival. Following a critical and comprehensive review of multidisciplinary literature using conceptual approach, a model is finally developed. Four antecedents are identified from the outcomes of this study: safety culture, supportive environment, social media perceived usefulness and management commitment. A potential positive relationship is highlighted between ICC, perceived organizational support and affective commitment.
Keywords: Internal crisis communication; safety culture; supportive environment; management commitment; social media perceived usefulness; perceived organizational support: employee’s crisis perception; affective commitment; high risk industry.
Risk and Risk Management: a historical review and research agenda
by Sankalp Naik, Ch. V.V.S.N.V. Prasad
Abstract: This paper aims to compile and improve the current understanding of risk, risk management, risk lexicon, and enterprise risk management (ERM) and summarize theoretical and empirical research regarding the relationship between risk management and firm value by summarizing over a hundred publications from the domain of risk understanding, typology of risk, the evolution of risk management and enterprise risk management. This literature review suggests that better risk management should lead to better risk-taking and not just risk reduction and finds strong theoretical and empirical evidence that risk management leads to improved firm valuations and performance while reducing cash flow uncertainty and return volatility. The literature review validates the positive relationship between risk management and firm value. Firms with sound risk management practices experience higher valuations and lower costs of financial distress. Evidence suggests that ERM has significant potential for wealth creation and cost mitigation.
Keywords: risk; risk management; risk lexicon; enterprise risk management; firm value; COVID19.
Criticality prioritization of risk factors in the Indian manufacturing industries using TOPSIS
by Vinod G. Surange, Sanjay U. Bokade
Abstract: This article aims to identify the Critical Risk Factors (CRFs) in the Indian manufacturing sector and prioritize them based on their severity. The article further provides the roadmap for effective risk management. Findings from the articles published in peer-reviewed international journals, coupled with the actual industrial scenario, are presented in this paper. This article applies The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), one of the key Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. Primary data was obtained by consulting fourteen Industry Experts (IEs) from reputed industries. CRFs are ranked in the order of their criticality based on the input received. This article presents TOPSIS demonstration using R software. The article uncovers the ten CRFs in the manufacturing sector. The ranking tool, with consideration of six selected criteria, derived "Supplier-related risks," "Design-related risks," as the foremost risk factors, whereas "Scope change risk," "Safety-related risk," obtained a lesser rank.
Keywords: Manufacturing; Critical Risk Factors (CRFs); TOPSIS; MCDM; R Software.