International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences (12 papers in press)
Efficiency measurement to identify the best efficient unit in the presence of dual-role factors
by Bohlool Ebrahimi
Abstract: Efficiency measurement is crucial to management for performance evaluation of several decision-making units (DMUs) in order to find the most efficient unit. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a practical and popular method that has been used widely for efficiency measurement in many applications. Thus, in the literature of DEA, several mixed integer DEA models are developed to efficiency measure and find the best efficient unit. In some situations, some factors named dual-role factors may be simultaneously considered as both inputs and outputs. However, a little attention has been paid in the literature of DEA to these types of factors. The current paper develops a new mixed integer linear DEA model to identify the best efficient DMU in the presence of dual-role factors. The basic DEA models consider different roles for each dual-role factor, and also solve at least one model for each DMU to determine the best unit. However, the developed approach in this paper considers a unique role for each dual-role factor, and also determines the best unit through by solving just one mixed integer DEA model. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate the profits and applicability of the developed approach.
Keywords: data envelopment analysis (DEA); efficiency measure; best unit; dual-role factors; supplier selection.
An extended multi-attribute group decision approach for selection of outsourcing services activities for information technology under risks
by S. Meysam Mousavi, H. Gitinavard
Abstract: In recent years, selection of outsourcing services activities for information technology (IT) which are defined under some outsourcing projects is a challenge for companies under competitive and uncertain environments. To address the issue, assessment techniques via group decision-making could be provided to appropriately appraise the candidates regarding the incomplete information and existing complexity. This study proposes a new integrated group assessment approach based on interval-valued hesitant fuzzy (IVHF) environment to select the best outsourcing projects regarding risks and incomplete information. The proposed approach is established via some procedures to determine experts' weights, criteria weights and candidates' rankings. The interval-valued hesitant fuzzy-collective wisdom weighting (IVHF-CWW) method is presented to compute the weight of each expert/decision maker (DM). Moreover, the interval-valued hesitant fuzzy-preference weighting (IVHF-PW) technique is presented to determine weights of evaluation criteria. Furthermore, the IVHF-utility index approach is elaborated to rank the candidate outsourcing projects. Finally, a practical study is provided to check the feasibility and validity of the proposed interval-valued hesitant fuzzy-integrated group decision-making (IVHF-IGDM) approach.
Keywords: group decision model; hesitant fuzzy sets theory; IT services; risks; information technology outsourcing.
Efficiency evaluation of regional economic development of mining and metallurgy city based on DEA model
by Yazhou Xiong, Shiyu Zhang, Jie Lan, Fen Chen
Abstract: As the second largest city in Hubei province in the past, Huangshi city's mining and metallurgy culture has a long history. As data collection difficulty and research integrity, this study includes the Hubei province as research scope. Mining and metallurgy economy is an important content of mining and metallurgy culture. Based on the input-output data of Hubei province from 2012 to 2016, the study applies CCR model of the DEA method to setup an evaluation indicator system of regional economy development efficiency. As a typical representative of mining and metallurgy city, Huangshi is taken as an example to be made the projection analysis on some non-DEA efficient areas. Based on the angle of mining and metallurgy city, some measures are put forward the in improving the efficiency of regional economic development. The established indicators system has a certain significance in enriching the existing research and projection analysis of the assessment results have certain guiding significance to adjust the input and output of major municipalities.
Keywords: CCR model; data envelopment analysis; DEA; decision making unit; DMU; efficiency evaluation.
Frailty correlated default on retail consumer loans in Zimbabwe
by Richard Chamboko, Jorge M. Bravo
Abstract: There has been increasing availability of consumer credit in Zimbabwe, yet the credit information sharing systems are not as advanced. Using frailty survival models on credit bureau data from Zimbabwe; this study investigates the possible underestimation of credit losses under the assumption of independence of default event times. The study found that adding a frailty term significantly improved the models, thus indicating the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. The major policy recommendation is for the regulator to institute appropriate policy frameworks to allow robust and complete credit information sharing and reporting as doing so will significantly improve the functioning of the credit market.
Keywords: default clustering; frailty; credit risk; expected losses; unobserved heterogeneity; survival models; Zimbabwe.
Modelling and forecasting recurrent recovery events on consumer loans
by Richard Chamboko, Jorge M.V. Bravo
Abstract: Even though multiple failure-time data are ubiquitous in finance and economics especially in the credit risk domain, it is unfortunate that naive statistical techniques which ignore the subsequent events are commonly used to analyse such data. Applying standard statistical methods without addressing the recurrence of the events produces biased and inefficient estimates, thus offering erroneous predictions. We explore various ways of modelling and forecasting recurrent delinquency and recovery events on consumer loans. Using consumer loans data from a severely distressed economic environment, we illustrate and empirically compare extended Cox models for ordered recurrent recovery events. We highlight that accounting for multiple events proffers detailed information, thus providing a nuanced understanding of the recovery prognosis of delinquents. For ordered indistinguishable recurrent recovery events, we recommend using the Andersen and Gill (1982) model since it fits the assumptions and performs well on predicting recovery.
Keywords: variance-corrected models; frailty models; multi-state models; MSM; Cox model; recurrent events; delinquency; recovery; consumer loans; credit risk.
Integrative review and new directions for future research of external Guanxi: in the Chinese context
by Min Li, Fangbin Xiao, Bijun Xie, Baoni Xu, Jie Zhou
Abstract: With the continuous development of China's economy, Guanxi management, as one of China's management research topics, has attracted more and more attention from scholars both domestically and overseas. This paper aims to carry out an integrated review of external Guanxi, providing a research basis and direction for further research. The study reviews mainly external Guanxi in the recent 30 years of literature. Through analysis connotation and classification of external Guanxi along with its, path, influence factors, and result variables, this article seeks to remedy the shortage of existing research. Additionally, this article presents future research directions for external Guanxi.
Keywords: Guanxi; external Guanxi within enterprises; factor; business performance; review.
Preventing crimes ahead of time by predicting crime propensity in released prisoners using data mining techniques
by H. Benjamin Fredrick David, A. Suruliandi, S.P. Raja
Abstract: Criminologists and psychologists around the world are finding new initiatives to identify criminals and understand crime scenes. This work focuses on predicting the occurrence of crimes for a released prisoner, based on crime propensity prediction, using a supervised machine learning technique. This original research is intended to design and develop a new dataset of 30 attributes that exists nowhere and is exclusively created to define prisoners so as to differentiate them by their propensity to crime using psychological and behavioural factors obtained from jails and assorted sources. The research incorporates an analysis of seven search methods, in tandem with seven subset evaluation techniques, to undertake feature selection, and nine classification algorithms for the classification of prisoners. It is found that the wolf search algorithm, used with the correlation-based feature subset evaluation technique and radial basis function classifier, performs best providing 97.8% precision, 97.5% recall and low error values.
Keywords: crime analysis; prediction; crime prediction; prisoner analysis; prison justice; wolf search algorithm; WSA; RBF classifier; classification; data mining.
A multi-method approach to evaluate land combat vehicle system
by Minh-Tuan Nguyen, Thang Cao
Abstract: This paper utilises Bayesian network (BN), multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEA) to present a hybrid decision making model for evaluating and optimising the operational impact of different land combat vehicle (LCV) system specifications and configurations. BN is employed to establish a qualitative and quantitative representation of the relations between the variables of the model and calculate standard values of uncertain LCV capabilities like survivability, lethality, etc. MCDM is adopted to integrate the influence of LCV capabilities and calculate the utility value of the selected options. An interactive analysis tool using MOEA is developed to manage the combinatorial nature of the number of LCV system options available and to help the decision maker to avoid any arbitrary selection of sub-optimum baseline vehicles.
Keywords: Bayesian network; BN; multi-criteria decision making; MCDM; analytic hierarchy process; AHP; data visualisation; data analysis; Pareto optimisation; multi-objective evolutionary algorithms; MOEA.
Ranking of efficient units on the basis of distance from virtual ideal and anti-ideal units
by Seyed Hadi Nasseri, Hamid Kiaei
Abstract: Data envelopment analysis (DEA) divides the units under evaluation into two groups: 1) the efficient units; 2) inefficient units. Inefficient units can be ranked in terms of effectiveness while efficient units, because of the same efficiency score being equal to one, have the same rank. Several methods have been proposed to rank efficient decision making units (DMUs). Each of these methods have certain weaknesses such as the infeasibility of the model, instability, the lack of non-extreme DMUs ranking, computational complexity, etc. In this paper, we present an alternative method that does not have the disadvantages of existing ranking techniques. The new approach is based on the evaluation of new DMUs corresponding to the efficient DMU. Also, some theorems are provided to show that the proposed model for ranking the DMUs is feasible and bounded. For this purpose, some examples are illustrated to show its difference with other methods.
Keywords: data envelopment analysis; DEA; efficient units; virtual ideal unit; virtual anti-ideal unit; new DMUs; distance; norm 1; efficiency score; ranking.
Joint pricing and inventory control modelling for obsolescent products: a case study of the telecom industry
by Mohammad Reza Sadeghi Moghadam, Isa Nakhai Kamalabadi, Bahareh Karbasian
Abstract: The current pricing context calls for better, faster and more precise pricing decision makings than ever before. These in turn, oblige companies to take a new stance with respect to the role of pricing in today's overwhelming and complex marketing context. Similarly, decisions related to inventory control and types of goods are strongly linked to pricing as well. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical programming model for joint inventory control and pricing for the bundling of obsolescent items. To this end, a mathematical programming model was developed following a comprehensive review of the literature in this area. The validity of the proposed model was then tested in the telecommunications industry as a case study. According to the obtained results, the proposed model had a fairly good validity.
Keywords: inventory control; pricing; obsolescent product; mathematical programming; telecom; bundling.
Analysing the impact of agile supply chain on firms' sales performance with moderating effect of technological-integration
by M.D. Sarwar-A Alam, Daoping Wang, Abdul Waheed, Muhammad Shahid Khan, Muhammad Farrukh
Abstract: Agility has become a key driver for all business operations, including supply chain (SC) operations to convene the requirements of the customers in a timely manner. The concept of agility with respect to SC is accelerating therefore sparse literature accessible on such domain, especially with incorporation of technology (TE) from developing economies. The current study investigates the linkages between distinct dimensions of the agile supply chain (ASC) and firms' sales performance (FSP) by adopting moderating effect of TE within SMEs of Bangladesh. Data collected from SC managers and evaluated using structural equation modelling. The findings affirmed the positive relationships between ASC and FSP along with positive connection of each dimension of ASC, i.e., alertness (ART), flexibility (FXB), decisiveness (DSV), swiftness (SWT), and accessibility (ACB). A positive influence of TE is found between ASC and FSP, respectively. This study presents insights for strategic SC management to focus ASC and TEs' capabilities in order to optimise FSP in today's customer-oriented era.
Keywords: supply chain agility; firms' performance; empirical findings; SMEs of Bangladesh.
Blockchain-enabled technology: the emerging technology set to reshape and decentralise many industries
by Mohsen Attaran, Angappa Gunasekaran
Abstract: The past few years have seen an explosion in the business use of blockchain. The technology has great potential to drive simplicity and efficiency in financial services, and it is poised to drive the next wave of financial service innovation. Interest in exploiting blockchain in other industries, such as manufacturing and healthcare, is increasing, and deployments are gaining momentum. Yet, the adoption rate is slow, and organisations are only beginning to scratch the surface in regards to the potential applications of this technology. Implemented properly, the business benefits can be substantial. This article explores the changing dimensions of blockchain, highlights the importance of this technology, reviews its timeline from inception to maturity, identifies determinants of implementation success, and covers some of the potential benefits of this technology. Finally, this study highlights the successful implementation of blockchain solutions in the manufacturing and service industries.
Keywords: blockchain distributed ledger technology; P2P networks; public key cryptography; sharing economy; neighbourhood micro-grids; machine to machine transactions; machine to machine; M2M; bitcoins.