International Journal of Trade and Global Markets (4 papers in press)

Regular Issues

• The dividend enigma: deciphering the effect on Indian ETF performance in stress and normal periods  
  by Ishwar Sharma, Chanchal Saini, Komal Jindal 
  Abstract: This study explored the effect of Dividend events on the performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in India during both normal and stressful market conditions. While dividend effects on individual equities are well documented, their influence on ETF pricing dynamics especially in emerging markets remains underexplored. We utilised standard event study methodology and tested our findings across four event windows to ensure robustness. In addition, we employed both the t-test (parametric) and the Corrado test (non-parametric) statistics to check the significance of abnormal returns. We found that dividend events in normal situations provide profitable opportunities for short-term traders. They could take a long position before the ex-dividend date, as positive cumulative returns are observed before that date. After that date, a short position would be helpful for them in making profits. On the other hand, short-term traders have limited profitable opportunities during market stress; their best option is to earn by tracking market movements.
  Keywords: ETFs performance; dividend announcement; ex-dividend; event study; ETFs; exchange-traded funds.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10072651
   
  
• Who shakes the Indian stock market more-USA or China trade policy uncertainty? a sectoral-level analysis  
  by Muhammadriyaj Faniband, Seema Singh 
  Abstract: This study investigates the asymmetric effects of USA and China trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on Indian stock market indices using a quantile regression approach and monthly data ranging from April 2005 to May 2025. We cover 16 indices including 13 sectoral and 3 market capitalisation-based indices. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in how different indices respond to TPU originating from the USA vs. China. USA TPU significantly impacts several Indian sectors, with negative and statistically significant effects observed for chemicals, financial services, fast moving consumer goods fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and energy sectors. In contrast, the effects of China TPU are largely insignificant across most sectors, with notable exceptions being the chemicals sector and large-cap. The findings underscore the dominance of USA policy shocks in shaping stock returns in emerging markets like India. The study offers critical insights for policymakers and investors, navigating cross-border trade uncertainty in a volatile global environment.
  Keywords: TPU; trade policy uncertainty; USA trade policy; China trade policy; Indian stock market; quantile regression; asymmetric effects; sectoral indices; market capitalisation.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10073826
   
  

Special Issue on: SIBR 2024 Structural Changes in International Finance, Trade, and Entrepreneurship

• Dynamical linkages between volatility index and stock markets in ASEAN + 6 during economic uncertainty  
  by Surachai Chancharat, Pichakorn Sithigon 
  Abstract: This study examines the relationship between the volatility index (VIX) and stock market indices in the ASEAN + 6 countries from daily stock market data from January 2, 2017, to December 30, 2022. The study is divided into two periods: the years 2017 to 2019, considered a regular period, and the years 2020 to 2022, considered a period with the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). This study utilises the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) and the threshold GARCH (TGARCH) models. The results of the analysis indicated an inverse relationship between volatility indices and stock market indices in the ASEAN + 6 countries.
  Keywords: COVID-19; GARCH; generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic; stock market; uncertainty; VIX; volatility index.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10073660
   
  
• Bitcoin as a safe haven for portfolio diversification  
  by Sarita Meekoh, Parichat Sinlapates 
  Abstract: Global events including the COVID-19 epidemic, the conflict of Russia-Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine conflict directly affect the economy, increasing volatility. Diversifying risk across asset classes using safe-haven assets offer protection to investors during a financial uncertainty period. During economic uncertainty, investing in Bitcoin helps disperse risks across asset classes. Hence, this research aims to examine the capacity of Bitcoin to function as a safe-haven asset. The period of study is segmented into four distinct periods: pre-events affecting the economy, the COVID-19 epidemic, the conflict of Russia-Ukraine, and the Israel-Palestine conflict. The exponential generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (EGARCH) approach is employed to analyse the correlation and volatility concerning other asset values. The analysis revealed a positive relationship between Bitcoin and gold, during the COVID-19 epidemic. Bitcoin could function as a safe-haven asset throughout these specific periods. In the Russia Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, Bitcoin and gold did not exhibit a correlation.
  Keywords: Bitcoin; safe-haven; portfolio diversification; financial crisis; cryptocurrency; alternative investment.
  DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.10073892