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International Journal of Environment and Health (1 paper in press)
Distribution analysis and autoregressive modelling of ultraviolet radiation over Akure, Nigeria by Ayodeji Ashidi, Samuel Ogunjo Abstract: Management of health risks associated with excessive exposure to ultraviolet radiation involves understanding its characteristics within any location. This work employed five-year archived data of UV index for analysis and autoregressive modelling of UV radiation over Akure (7.15oN, 5.12oE), Nigeria. In-situ measurements of UV index were made every day between January 2007 and December 2011 at 30 minutes interval using Davis 6162 vantage Pro2 weather station. The prevalence of high intensity UV index, which indicates human susceptibility to UV-related health risks, was investigated. The statistical model that best describes UV distribution and its autoregressive characteristics was also determined for the location. The annual UV index was found to fit a Nakagami distribution and well modelled by a third order polynomial equation to at least 95% accuracy. Nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) artificial neural network analysis also returned regression coefficient values of 0.95, 0.94 and 0.94 for the training, validation and test parameters, respectively. Keywords: health risk; sun exposure; auto regressive; UV index; neural network.