Title: Probabilistic oil outflow: the tanker fleet in the context of risk analysis

Authors: Nikolaos P. Ventikos; Panagiotis Sotiralis

Addresses: Laboratory for Maritime Transport, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou st., Zografou 15773, Greece ' Laboratory for Maritime Transport, School of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou st., Zografou 15773, Greece

Abstract: The study of safety and environmental friendliness of tankers remains a vital concern of the shipping industry, and the analysis of risk regarding oil spillage from this type of ships is considered as a top priority item in the agenda of shipping. In this context, the paper is focused on the implementation and probabilistic formulation of regulation 23 of MAPPOL to calculate distribution and quantities of oil outflow for all major oil tanker categories such as Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC, etc. Dedicated databases for each tanker size category have been developed, checked for statistical acceptance, and utilised to obtain all necessary inputs for the calculation of oil outflow. Subsequently, numerous cargo tank configurations per tanker size were examined (for double hull vessels following regulation 19 of MARPOL), multiple scenarios were drafted, and these were put under simulation exercises to come up with oil outflow probabilistic distributions. The paper concludes with a framework for the assessment of costs for (tanker) oil spills.

Keywords: tanker fleet; oil outflow; risk assessment; statistical analysis; oil spills; oil tankers; tanker size; cargo tank configurations; double hull vessels; simulation; probabilistic distributions.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2014.064574

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2014 Vol.6 No.5, pp.552 - 570

Available online: 21 Aug 2014 *

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