Title: Assumption surfacing and monitoring as a tool in project risk management

Authors: Nils O.E. Olsson; Ingrid Spjelkavik

Addresses: Department of Architectural Design and Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway ' SINTEF Technology and Society, NO-7465 Trondheim, Norway

Abstract: This paper discusses how and why it is important to use assumptions as a baseline for project risk management. Project assumptions are fundamental aspects on which the decision to start a project is based on. Assumptions are usually described in business case documentation. If project assumptions are about to become invalid, it is an important early warning signal to projects. In this article, we present that it is possible and desirable to use assumption surfacing and monitoring as a basis for project risk management. The empirical part of the paper is based on case studies in one railway project and one hospital project. In one case, we illustrate how assumption-based risk management was done. In the other case, we show that it should have been done, and that it was possible to do it. Based on practical experience, we point to advantages in quantifying assumptions.

Keywords: project management; project risk management; project assumptions; assumption surfacing; assumption monitoring; prerequisites; early warning; railway projects; hospital projects.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPOM.2014.059740

International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 2014 Vol.6 No.1/2, pp.179 - 196

Received: 15 Sep 2010
Accepted: 24 Aug 2011
Published online: 24 May 2014 *

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