Title: An integrated procedure to estimate demand flows of maritime container transport at international scale

Authors: Francesco Russo; Giuseppe Musolino; Vincenzo Assumma

Addresses: DIIES-Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, delle Infrastrutture e dell'Energia Sostenibile, Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, Feo di Vito, 89100 Reggio Calabria, Italy ' DIIES-Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, delle Infrastrutture e dell'Energia Sostenibile, Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, Feo di Vito, 89100 Reggio Calabria, Italy ' DIIES-Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, delle Infrastrutture e dell'Energia Sostenibile, Università Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, Feo di Vito, 89100 Reggio Calabria, Italy

Abstract: The paper proposes an integrated procedure for the estimation of containerised OD flows at international scale. The procedure combines two different systems of models: (1) a meso-aggregated system of models for estimation of OD flows by means of a specification-calibration-validation process and (2) a macro-aggregated system of models for estimation of OD flows by means of a re-calibration process. The procedure has been tested in order to estimate the values of containerised OD flows of a geographical area composed of countries facing the Mediterranean basin at year 2006. The integrated procedure could represent a valid support for market operators and analysts, who need estimates of demand variables in order to mitigate risks of over- or under-investment, and for researchers developing freight models, because it offers the possibility to combine the potentialities of specification-calibration-validation and re-calibration processes in freight demand modelling.

Keywords: maritime container transport; origin-destination flows; throughput; transhipment; Mediterranean area; demand modelling; freight models; freight transport; maritime containers; demand variables; investment risk.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2014.059566

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2014 Vol.6 No.2, pp.112 - 132

Available online: 23 Feb 2014 *

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