Title: Technology foresight in an age of uncertainty

Authors: Ian Wilson

Addresses: Wolf Enterprises, 79 Twin Oaks, San Rafael, CA 94901, USA

Abstract: In the face of increasing uncertainty, technology forecasting (in the strictest sense) is no longer feasible. In its place we must develop a foresight capability based on three main elements – scenarios, scanning, and monitoring – to ensure the resilience of the technology strategies we pursue. Scenarios are needed to scope out the complexity and uncertainties of the future environment in which technology will be developed; scanning, to create an ||early warning system|| to alert us to the emergence of new forces likely to impact on the future course of technology; and monitoring, to track the continuing evolution of forces. A case study is used to explore the application of scenario planning in the development of technology strategy for a Norwegian oil and gas company.

Keywords: technology strategy; scenarios; scanning; monitoring; technology foresight.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004960

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2004 Vol.1 No.3/4, pp.207 - 217

Published online: 26 Jul 2004 *

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