Technology foresight in an age of uncertainty
by Ian Wilson
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 1, No. 3/4, 2004

Abstract: In the face of increasing uncertainty, technology forecasting (in the strictest sense) is no longer feasible. In its place we must develop a foresight capability based on three main elements – scenarios, scanning, and monitoring – to ensure the resilience of the technology strategies we pursue. Scenarios are needed to scope out the complexity and uncertainties of the future environment in which technology will be developed; scanning, to create an ''early warning system'' to alert us to the emergence of new forces likely to impact on the future course of technology; and monitoring, to track the continuing evolution of forces. A case study is used to explore the application of scenario planning in the development of technology strategy for a Norwegian oil and gas company.

Online publication date: Mon, 26-Jul-2004

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