Title: Experts and foresight: review and experience

Authors: Denis Loveridge

Addresses: PREST, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

Abstract: Experts and their opinions are widely sought, but there are serious questions to be asked about both experts and their opinions. Governments, through their advisory committees, companies and adversarial groups eagerly seek expert opinion with which to influence the formulation of policy and regulations of all kinds. In a different sphere, expert opinion is also a powerful feature of many complex court cases where many expert witnesses find themselves in circumstances beyond their normal experience and where their evidence may be manipulated in ways they never anticipated. Here, the nature of expert opinion and its elicitation are first surveyed, necessarily in brief and subsequently the methods and methodological issues of elicitation are discussed, all in relation to foresight activity. Finally, the implications for the practice of foresight, particularly in their manifestation in public foresight programmes, are discussed.

Keywords: experts; foresight; human judgment; practical experience; preference; science in court; uncertainty.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2004.004651

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2004 Vol.1 No.1/2, pp.33 - 69

Published online: 26 May 2004 *

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