Title: Forecasting the development of internet security technology in Taiwan via scenario analysis

Authors: Tser-yieth Chen, Ji-jenn Chiou

Addresses: Ming-chuan University, Institute of Management Science, No. 250, Chung-shan North Road, Section 5, 11120, Taipei, Taiwan. ' The Sunny Bank, No. 88, Shih-pai Road, Section 1, 112, Taipei, Taiwan

Abstract: This study attempts to forecast the development of Internet security technology by adopting scenario analysis. The analytical process of scenario analysis comprises six steps: (1) identifying the decision focus, (2) identifying key decision factors, (3) identifying driving forces, (4) selecting uncertainty axes, (5) selecting and polishing scenarios, (6) analysing decision implications. The scenario analysis is intended to provide some scenarios to envelop specific future technological developments. Meanwhile, results of the scenarios can provide a valuable reference for decision makers when implementing appropriate scenario planning.

Keywords: technological forecast; scenario analysis; internet security technology.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTM.2004.004057

International Journal of Services Technology and Management, 2004 Vol.5 No.2, pp.170 - 180

Available online: 29 Mar 2004 *

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