Forecasting the development of internet security technology in Taiwan via scenario analysis Online publication date: Mon, 10-May-2004
by Tser-yieth Chen, Ji-jenn Chiou
International Journal of Services Technology and Management (IJSTM), Vol. 5, No. 2, 2004
Abstract: This study attempts to forecast the development of Internet security technology by adopting scenario analysis. The analytical process of scenario analysis comprises six steps: (1) identifying the decision focus, (2) identifying key decision factors, (3) identifying driving forces, (4) selecting uncertainty axes, (5) selecting and polishing scenarios, (6) analysing decision implications. The scenario analysis is intended to provide some scenarios to envelop specific future technological developments. Meanwhile, results of the scenarios can provide a valuable reference for decision makers when implementing appropriate scenario planning.
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