Title: Modelling infection spread using location tracking

Authors: Andrew Michael Mason, Nicholas John Dingle, William John Knottenbelt, Derek Bell, William Buchanan, Christoph Thuemmler

Addresses: Department of Computing, Imperial College London, 180 Queen's Gate, London SW7 2AZ, UK. ' Department of Computing, Imperial College London, 180 Queen's Gate, London SW7 2AZ, UK. ' Department of Computing, Imperial College London, 180 Queen's Gate, London SW7 2AZ, UK. ' Imperial College London, NIHR CLAHRC for Northwest London, Chelsea & Westminster Hospital, 369 Fulham Road, London SW10 9NH, UK. ' Centre for Distributed Computing and Security, School of Computing, Napier University, 10 Colinton Road, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, UK ' Centre for Applied Ehealth, School of Computing, Napier University, 10 Colinton Road, Edinburgh EH10 5DT, UK

Abstract: The precision of location tracking technology has improved greatly over the last few decades. We aim to show that by tracking the locations of individuals in a closed environment, it is now possible to record the nature and frequency of interactions between them. Further, that it is possible to use such data to predict the way in which an infection will spread throughout such a population, given parameters such as transmission and recovery rates. We accordingly present a software package that is capable of recording and then replaying location data provided by a high-precision location tracking system. The software then employs a combination of SIR modelling and the epidemiological technique of contact tracing in order to predict the spread of an infection. We use this software to conduct a number of experiments using a sample data set, and compare the SIR graphs generated from these to similar graphs generated using the traditional SIR differential equations.

Keywords: location tracking; SIR modelling; contact tracing; infection spread; healthcare technology.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHTM.2010.036925

International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, 2010 Vol.11 No.6, pp.442 - 461

Accepted: 19 May 2010
Published online: 16 Nov 2010 *

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