Modelling infection spread using location tracking Online publication date: Tue, 16-Nov-2010
by Andrew Michael Mason, Nicholas John Dingle, William John Knottenbelt, Derek Bell, William Buchanan, Christoph Thuemmler
International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management (IJHTM), Vol. 11, No. 6, 2010
Abstract: The precision of location tracking technology has improved greatly over the last few decades. We aim to show that by tracking the locations of individuals in a closed environment, it is now possible to record the nature and frequency of interactions between them. Further, that it is possible to use such data to predict the way in which an infection will spread throughout such a population, given parameters such as transmission and recovery rates. We accordingly present a software package that is capable of recording and then replaying location data provided by a high-precision location tracking system. The software then employs a combination of SIR modelling and the epidemiological technique of contact tracing in order to predict the spread of an infection. We use this software to conduct a number of experiments using a sample data set, and compare the SIR graphs generated from these to similar graphs generated using the traditional SIR differential equations.
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