Title: On the boundaries of probabilistic risk assessment in the face of uncertainties, a case of piracy and armed robberies against ships in the Gulf of Aden

Authors: Terje Aven, Riana Steen

Addresses: University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway. ' University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway

Abstract: It is a common conception among many researchers and analysts, in particular social scientists, that using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) when there are large uncertainties about likelihoods and outcomes is irrational, unscientific and potentially misleading. In this paper, we look more closely into this issue: the boundaries of PRAs when there are large uncertainties about the phenomena and processes analysed. Using an example of maritime piracy, we demonstrate that PRA also has an important role to play in risk management when the uncertainties are large. A paradigm shift is, however, required for how to conduct and use the risk assessments. The ambition of precise risk estimation has to be replaced by uncertainty assessments and characterisation.

Keywords: probabilistic risk assessment; chance; maritime piracy; armed robbery; ships; shipping; probability; risk estimation; Gulf of Aden; likelihoods; outcomes; uncertainty assessments; risk characterisations; business continuity; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBCRM.2010.033633

International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, 2010 Vol.1 No.2, pp.113 - 124

Published online: 09 Jun 2010 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article