Title: Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

Authors: Sytze A. Rienstra, Richard T. M. Smokers, Peter Nijkamp

Addresses: NEI Transport, PO Box 4175, 3006 AD Rotterdam, The Netherlands. TNO-Inro, PO Box 6041, 2600 JA Delft, The Netherlands. Free University, Dept. of Spatial Economics, De Boelelaan 1108, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: In this paper, four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario, we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Based on this information, expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are offered, and estimations of the future energy system are given. Then, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are assessed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that a large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways. Each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals.

Keywords: transport; energy; scenarios; new technologies; sustainability.

DOI: 10.1504/IJVD.2000.001900

International Journal of Vehicle Design, 2000 Vol.23 No.3/4, pp.342-359

Available online: 18 Aug 2003 *

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