Title: Patent litigation as a leading market indicator

Authors: Victor Tang, Biao Huang

Addresses: CIPD, MIT Sloan School of Management, 30 Memorial Drive E60-236, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA. CIPD, MIT Sloan School of Management, 30 Memorial Drive E60-236, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to introduce patent litigation as a leading indicator of market growth. We model the intensity of patent litigation and the market growth for the personal computer and cellular phone market in the USA. By means of these analytic models, we show that patent litigation is a leading indicator of market growth. We are also able very precisely to delineate discrete stages of the product|s market life cycle and demarcate the time when life-cycle transitions are about to take place. We close this paper with a discussion on new lines of patent research that are potentially useful for managerial practice and for investment decisions.

Keywords: patents; patent citations; patent litigation; patent infringement; technology diffusion; innovation; market growth; market forecasting; leading indicators; knowledge spillover; early adopters.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTTC.2002.001789

International Journal of Technology Transfer and Commercialisation, 2002 Vol.1 No.3, pp.280-291

Available online: 18 Aug 2003 *

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