Title: Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

Authors: Yi-Ming Wei, Ji-Ping Hu, Ying Fan, Cai-Hua Xu

Addresses: Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 8712, Beijing 100080, China. ' Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China. ' Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 8712, Beijing 100080, China. ' Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China

Abstract: This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005–2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the |automobile age|.

Keywords: modified Gompertz model; Gini factor; passenger vehicles; ownership ratio forecast; China; vehicle ownership; GDP per capita; car ownership; automobiles.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2008 Vol.4 No.3/4, pp.348 - 358

Published online: 18 Mar 2008 *

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