Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership
by Yi-Ming Wei, Ji-Ping Hu, Ying Fan, Cai-Hua Xu
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 4, No. 3/4, 2008

Abstract: This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005–2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

Online publication date: Tue, 18-Mar-2008

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