Article: Crisis myopia: how systemic uncertainty reverses the logic of saving and consumption Journal: International Journal of Economics and Business Research (IJEBR) 2026 Vol.30 No.6 pp.1 - 26 Abstract: This study examines how systemic uncertainty and income variation influence household saving and consumption behaviour during Lebanon's financial and political crisis. Using a 2024 nationwide survey (n = 482), the study employs principal component analysis and ordinary least squares regression to investigate perceived uncertainty, income variation, and consumption patterns. Results show that higher uncertainty is associated with stronger precautionary saving motives and increased consumption of inferior goods, while luxury and durable goods show no significant relationship. Food and health security are negatively affected, indicating deterioration in basic welfare conditions. Findings suggest that prolonged hyperinflation and institutional collapse weaken long-term financial planning and shift behaviour toward short-term survival strategies. The study contributes to understanding consumer behaviour under systemic crises and highlights the importance of restoring institutional stability and financial credibility. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Crisis myopia: how systemic uncertainty reverses the logic of saving and consumption

Authors: Ribal Rizk; Jennifer Challita; Nour Salem

Addresses: Department of Economics, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Notre Dame University-Louaize (NDU), Zouk Mosbeh, Lebanon ' Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services, Government of Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada ' Public Markets Division, Global Gate Capital, Weygand Street, Beirut Central District, Beirut Souks, Beirut, Lebanon

Abstract: This study examines how systemic uncertainty and income variation influence household saving and consumption behaviour during Lebanon's financial and political crisis. Using a 2024 nationwide survey (n = 482), the study employs principal component analysis and ordinary least squares regression to investigate perceived uncertainty, income variation, and consumption patterns. Results show that higher uncertainty is associated with stronger precautionary saving motives and increased consumption of inferior goods, while luxury and durable goods show no significant relationship. Food and health security are negatively affected, indicating deterioration in basic welfare conditions. Findings suggest that prolonged hyperinflation and institutional collapse weaken long-term financial planning and shift behaviour toward short-term survival strategies. The study contributes to understanding consumer behaviour under systemic crises and highlights the importance of restoring institutional stability and financial credibility.

Keywords: consumption behaviour; crisis myopia; financial crisis and behaviour; behavioural economics; fragile economies; policy reforms.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2026.154087

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2026 Vol.30 No.6, pp.1 - 26

Received: 08 Nov 2025
Accepted: 12 Apr 2026
Published online: 11 Jun 2026 *

Title: Crisis myopia: how systemic uncertainty reverses the logic of saving and consumption

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