Article: Introduction of new technologies into the market: quantifying risks for a fairer valuation Journal: International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management (IJEIM) 2025 Vol.29 No.1/2 pp.23 - 43 Abstract: Technology valuation is a fundamental tool in innovation to catalyse technology transfer from entrepreneurs to the market. However, the typical risks associated with introducing new technologies are not often adequately assessed during the valuation process. The absence of a rational and quantitative approach to risk assessment can lead to an unfair valuation, potentially resulting in inconveniences related to underestimation or overestimation of the technology's true worth. We propose a structured technique to measure the risk premium associated with new technology's market entry. It enables a comprehensive and rational technology valuation using the discount rate of the discounted cash flow method. We demonstrate the practical application of this technique through a case study involving a particular technology under development at the Nuclear Technology Development Center. Technology specialists and managers validated the technique and results. It contributes to a fairer valuation of technologies, facilitating interaction between entrepreneurs, investors, and developers. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Introduction of new technologies into the market: quantifying risks for a fairer valuation

Authors: Marcílio Andrade; Carolina Fonseca; Juliana Silva; Régia Guimarães

Addresses: Nuclear Technology Development Centre, Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 6.627, Campus UFMG – Pampulha, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil ' Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil ' Nuclear Technology Development Centre, Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 6.627, Campus UFMG – Pampulha, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil ' Nuclear Technology Development Centre, Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 6.627, Campus UFMG – Pampulha, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Abstract: Technology valuation is a fundamental tool in innovation to catalyse technology transfer from entrepreneurs to the market. However, the typical risks associated with introducing new technologies are not often adequately assessed during the valuation process. The absence of a rational and quantitative approach to risk assessment can lead to an unfair valuation, potentially resulting in inconveniences related to underestimation or overestimation of the technology's true worth. We propose a structured technique to measure the risk premium associated with new technology's market entry. It enables a comprehensive and rational technology valuation using the discount rate of the discounted cash flow method. We demonstrate the practical application of this technique through a case study involving a particular technology under development at the Nuclear Technology Development Center. Technology specialists and managers validated the technique and results. It contributes to a fairer valuation of technologies, facilitating interaction between entrepreneurs, investors, and developers.

Keywords: valuation; technology valuation; discounted cash flow; DCF; discount rate; risks; technology transfer.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEIM.2025.153411

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management, 2025 Vol.29 No.1/2, pp.23 - 43

Received: 04 Jul 2024
Accepted: 08 Apr 2025
Published online: 07 May 2026 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article

Title: Introduction of new technologies into the market: quantifying risks for a fairer valuation

Keep up-to-date