Title: Discrete event simulation of the post-earthquake restoration process for electric power systems

Authors: Zehra Cagnan, Rachel A. Davidson

Addresses: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hollister Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA. ' School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hollister Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA

Abstract: This paper describes a discrete event simulation model of the post-earthquake restoration process for electric power systems. The model explicitly represents the real-life restoration process, enabling development of geographically disaggregated, quantitative restoration curves with uncertainty bounds, a dynamic map showing the spatial distribution of outages changing over time, and information on how personnel and repair materials are used throughout the process. The new restoration modelling approach is applied to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power electric power system. Simulation results for the 1994 Northridge earthquake indicate that the model is capable of accurately estimating the restoration time and spatial sequence of the recovery process. The model aims to help improve the quantitative restoration time estimates that are required to estimate economic losses due to business interruption caused by power outages, and identify and compare the effectiveness of different ways to improve the restoration process in future earthquakes.

Keywords: discrete event simulation; earthquakes; electric power systems; lifelines; post-earthquake recovery; power restoration; modelling; power outages.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2007.015298

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2007 Vol.7 No.8, pp.1138 - 1156

Published online: 02 Oct 2007 *

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