Title: Strategic development of regional transshipment hubs: leveraging econometric modelling and trade integration between foreland nations and production centres

Authors: Rashika Mudunkotuwa; Mingjun Ji; Yapa Mahinda Bandara; T.S.G. Peiris

Addresses: Business Faculty, NSBM Green University, Pitipana, Sri Lanka; Transport Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China ' Transport Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China ' The Business School, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK ' Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri Lanka

Abstract: This paper shows that transshipment ports can be key contributors to enhancing trade relations and strategic port partnerships between the host country and the connected markets. The paper develops a forecasting model based on international trade dynamics between foreland markets and the world's major production centre, China, and validates with data sourced from the World Integrated Trade Solution and China's Trade Yearbook to determine the port throughput of a regional hub port (the Port of Colombo). The model's validity is confirmed through rigorous statistical tests and the findings revealed the Port of Colombo's long-term dependence on trade with foreland nations trading with China. The results support the need for the port's host country to adopt trade integration strategies for its sustained growth. The model significantly enhances the forecasting accuracy for transshipment hubs, offering valuable insights for policymakers and port authorities to promote sustainable growth through improved trade integration strategies.

Keywords: transshipment hub; trade integration; foreland nations; production centre; granger causality; VECM.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2026.151952

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2026 Vol.22 No.2, pp.179 - 203

Received: 14 Jul 2024
Accepted: 27 Apr 2025
Published online: 27 Feb 2026 *

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