Title: Evaluation of oil price volatility development

Authors: Monika Burghauserová; Josef Gulyás; Robin Kunju Mol Raj

Addresses: Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, School of Expertness and Valuation, Okružní 517/10, 37001 České Budějovice, Czech Republic ' Pan-European University, Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Tomášikova 20, 821 02 Bratislava, Slovak Republic ' Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, School of Expertness and Valuation, Okružní 517/10, 37001 České Budějovice, Czech Republic

Abstract: One of the major consistent challenges that have faced the energy industry is defining crude oil price forecasting with several implications for the oil and gas market. This paper examined the trend of oil price volatility from January 1990 to March 2024 using the ARIMA model and made a forecast for further development until 2030. The outcome showed a very dynamic tendency in the oil price curve, with steep fluctuations during important periods such as the financial crisis in 2008, the collapse of prices in 2014-2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Geopolitical conflicts, world economic cycles, and changes in supply-demand conditions became the main determinants of price volatility. The analysis projects volatility to continue in 2024-2025, with prices fluctuating in the range of $55-65 per barrel, underpinned by supply uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. A more gradual stabilisation would then take hold after 2025, with prices possibly settling at $16 to $19 a barrel through 2029-2030 and further firming up to $24 in early 2031. Such findings raise awareness among all the stakeholders within the oil and gas markets to increase their risk management and strategic activities. [Received: September 30, 2024; Accepted: March 7, 2025]

Keywords: oil price volatility; time series analysis; ARIMA modelling; content analysis; forecasting; econometrics; energy markets.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOGCT.2026.150572

International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, 2026 Vol.39 No.1, pp.106 - 129

Received: 20 Sep 2024
Accepted: 07 Mar 2025
Published online: 17 Dec 2025 *

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