Title: A prediction of China's dependence on foreign oil up to 2060

Authors: Guangyue Xu; Lanmei Zang; Shuang Li; Qiuyu Song; Kyaw Jaw Sine Marma

Addresses: School of Economics, Institute of Ecological Civilization Economy, Henan University, Kaifeng – 475004, Henan, China ' School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing – 100000, China ' School of Economics, Institute of Ecological Civilization Economy, Henan University, Kaifeng – 475004, Henan, China ' School of Economics, Institute of Ecological Civilization Economy, Henan University, Kaifeng – 475004, Henan, China ' School of Economics, Institute of Ecological Civilization Economy, Henan University, Kaifeng – 475004, Henan, China

Abstract: China's dependence on foreign oil has increased rapidly in the past few decades. If it continues to grow at the current rate, it will have a series of negative impacts on energy security, economic development, and international competition. The future trajectory of China's foreign oil dependence has become the most critical subject for debate. This paper focuses on such issues from three different perspectives - the historical perspective of China's oil dependence on foreign countries, the main factors affecting China's oil dependence on foreign countries, and the prediction of oil dependence on foreign countries. The forecast shows that China's oil dependence on foreign countries will likely reach its peak before 2030, and it is expected to reach its peak as early as 2026, with a maximum value of 75.24%. The realisation of this possible peak depends on the control of oil demand and the progress of oil production technology. Therefore, it is necessary to increase innovative technology orienting the oil industry and control consumption to address with high dependence on foreign oil. [Received: October 4, 2023; Accepted: February 12, 2024]

Keywords: China's petroleum; external dependency; prediction; energy security; peak.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOGCT.2025.146522

International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, 2025 Vol.37 No.4, pp.467 - 488

Received: 02 Oct 2023
Accepted: 12 Feb 2024
Published online: 02 Jun 2025 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article