Title: Carbon dioxide emissions forecasting and scenario analysis in China's non-metallic mineral products industry

Authors: Shaomei Yang; Zhuolin Zhang

Addresses: Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China ' Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, Hebei, China

Abstract: China's non-metallic mineral product industry (NMPI) is a typical high-emission industry; effective control of CO₂ emissions from NMPI is the key to realising China's carbon peaking target. This study used STIRPAT to analyse the influential factors, and the CO₂ emissions of the NMPI under various scenarios were forecasted from 2023 to 2040 using HHO-BPNN and scenario analysis. The results show that: NMPI will have difficulty realising carbon peaking by 2030 under the baseline scenario; however, under the scenarios of government regulation, technological breakthrough, and enhanced low-carbon, NMPI can achieve carbon peaking by 2030.

Keywords: CO₂ emissions forecast; non-metallic mineral products industry; STIRPAT-HHO-BPNN; scenario analysis; China.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2024.142599

International Journal of Global Warming, 2024 Vol.34 No.3, pp.205 - 223

Received: 21 May 2024
Accepted: 02 Aug 2024
Published online: 11 Nov 2024 *

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