Title: Global oil market: an outlook to 2030. How will the balance of supply and demand change over the next ten years?

Authors: Nikita O. Kapustin; Dmitry A. Grushevenko

Addresses: The Department of Research of Energy Complex of Russia and the World, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 117186, Nagornaya St., 31, k.2, Moscow, Russian Federation ' The Department of Research of Energy Complex of Russia and the World, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 117186, Nagornaya St., 31, k.2, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract: The crisis of 2020 became a 'perfect storm' for the oil market, throwing it in disarray. At the start of 2021, as the pandemic subsides, hopes of recovery re-emerge. Yet, the calculations, performed by the authors show, that under varying scenarios of economic restoration, the global demand, after a slight bounceback from the plunge of 2020, inevitably turns for a stable decline since 2023 or 2026 (depending on the scenario), without ever reaching the levels of 2018-2019, which indicates the historical peak of oil demand. At the backdrop of newly found abundancy of supply, brought about by technologies behind 'shale revolution', this entails fundamental reformatting of the principles of the functioning of the oil market, mainly the increasing importance of political factors for the functioning of the oil market, mainly the energy legislations and OPEC+ agreement. [Received: April 13, 2021; Accepted: March 27, 2023]

Keywords: global oil market; energy markets; oil prices; modelling; forecast; peak oil demand.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOGCT.2023.132497

International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, 2023 Vol.33 No.4, pp.315 - 335

Accepted: 27 Mar 2023
Published online: 24 Jul 2023 *

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