Title: Introducing a scale to measure individual preferences in the scenario planning process

Authors: Andreas Schühly; Michael-Jörg Oesterle

Addresses: Department of International and Strategic Management, University of Stuttgart, Keplerstrasse 17, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany ' Department of International and Strategic Management, University of Stuttgart, Keplerstrasse 17, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract: In long-term planning, scenario planning is often used to cope with uncertainty. Yet, theory and practice lack clear guidance leading to a diverse set of methodologies for scenario planning. Despite this shortcoming, scenario planning methodologies are frequently applied globally in a standardised manner without considering contextual differences. In particular, it is actors of multinational corporations who have to deal with contextual differences of various dimensions. By using the upper echelons theory, the underlying research shows from a theoretical standpoint how contextual differences influence the scenario planning processes. This research presents a scenario planning process with five process phases. By introducing a measurement scale for individual preferences in the process, adjustments can be made according to participants' preferences. The scale was validated with a large, global set of management consultants. Beyond practical value, the scale development helps to strengthen the position of scenario planning in the strategic management domain.

Keywords: scenario planning; strategic management; uncertainty; standardisation; adaptation; preferences; upper echelons theory; multinational corporations.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2022.128066

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2022 Vol.16 No.1, pp.66 - 96

Received: 26 Jul 2021
Accepted: 20 Jun 2022
Published online: 04 Jan 2023 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article