Introducing a scale to measure individual preferences in the scenario planning process
by Andreas Schühly; Michael-Jörg Oesterle
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 16, No. 1, 2022

Abstract: In long-term planning, scenario planning is often used to cope with uncertainty. Yet, theory and practice lack clear guidance leading to a diverse set of methodologies for scenario planning. Despite this shortcoming, scenario planning methodologies are frequently applied globally in a standardised manner without considering contextual differences. In particular, it is actors of multinational corporations who have to deal with contextual differences of various dimensions. By using the upper echelons theory, the underlying research shows from a theoretical standpoint how contextual differences influence the scenario planning processes. This research presents a scenario planning process with five process phases. By introducing a measurement scale for individual preferences in the process, adjustments can be made according to participants' preferences. The scale was validated with a large, global set of management consultants. Beyond practical value, the scale development helps to strengthen the position of scenario planning in the strategic management domain.

Online publication date: Wed, 04-Jan-2023

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