Title: Reducing the bullwhip effect in supply chain with factors affecting the customer demand forecasting

Authors: Milad Rezaeefard; Nazanin Pilevari; Farshad Faezy Razi; Reza Radfar

Addresses: Department of Industrial Management, College of Management and Economics, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, 0098-1477893855 Tehran, Iran ' Health & Industry Research Center, Department of Industrial Management, West Tehran Branch, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, 0098-148763785 Tehran, Iran ' Department of Industrial Management, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, 0098- 351313711 Semnan, Iran ' Department of Industrial Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, 0098-1477893855 Tehran, Iran

Abstract: Demand planning is one of the most significant steps in production planning based on demand data in the supply chain. Therefore, the correct demand forecasting in the supply chain can reduce this effect in the supply chain known as the bullwhip effect or uncertainty in relation to customer demand, reducing the costs and surplus activities of companies and organisations. For this purpose, the characteristics of the statistical population were studied, the hypotheses were tested, and the path analysis was drawn using descriptive statistics and FCM (Fuzzy Cognitive Map) method. Then, the strength of the model was investigated using the structural equation modelling (SEM) in AMOS software and structural equations were presented. In this study, Aftab oil factory was selected as a case study. The findings of this study emphasised that the demand management performance is highly essential for industries. Companies can design the sector independently as a demand management sector for evaluating customer demands at different levels of the supply chain.

Keywords: demand management; supply chain; bullwhip effect; surplus activities; SEM; structural equation modelling; FCM method.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSOI.2022.126328

International Journal of Services Operations and Informatics, 2022 Vol.12 No.2, pp.144 - 183

Received: 18 Jun 2021
Accepted: 09 May 2022

Published online: 20 Oct 2022 *

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