Title: Simulation analysis on the public opinion factors and public panic degree under the background of spreading sudden disaster information by new media

Authors: Zixia Chen; Shiwen Wu; Zelin Chen; Bingqian Lv

Addresses: Zhejiang Guangsha Vocational and Technical University of Construction, Dongyang, Zhejiang 322100, China ' Zhejiang Guangsha Vocational and Technical University of Construction, Dongyang, Zhejiang 322100, China ' Westcliff University, Irvine, California, USA ' Zhejiang Guangsha Vocational and Technical University of Construction, Dongyang, Zhejiang 322100, China

Abstract: Based on the analysis of the transmission and evolution mechanism of the sudden disaster risk, this paper fully considers the influence of public opinion after a disaster and uses the improved individual interaction model to transform public opinion information into public risk panic. In addition, according to the characteristics of panic, this paper puts forward the corresponding emergency rescue measures to reduce the risk of social unrest. The Matlab-ABM simulation results show that at the early stage of a disaster, the degree of public panic risk evolves with the number of interactions between individuals and the deepening of risk awareness. Further, different disaster levels also lead to varying influences on the panic risk. Positive information and negative information will produce more significant distinctions in the degree of public risk panic. The simulation results can provide decision support for relevant government departments to restrain the fermentation of sudden public disasters.

Keywords: new media communication; sudden disaster; public opinion factors; the evolution of public panic; numerical simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJWMC.2021.117569

International Journal of Wireless and Mobile Computing, 2021 Vol.20 No.4, pp.372 - 380

Received: 27 Feb 2021
Accepted: 01 Apr 2021

Published online: 02 Sep 2021 *

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