Title: Determining the takeoff point in adoption of innovations: a comparison of content and discrimination analysis

Authors: Tomi P. Haapaniemi, Saku J. Makinen

Addresses: CITER - Center for Innovation and Technology Research, Institute of Industrial Management, Tampere University of Technology, P.O. Box 541, Tampere FI-33101, Finland. ' CITER - Center for Innovation and Technology Research, Institute of Industrial Management, Tampere University of Technology, P.O. Box 541, Tampere FI-33101, Finland

Abstract: The adoption of innovations has traditionally been divided into introductory, growth, maturity and decline phases, but research has treated the adoption mostly as a smooth process, leaving the transition from an introductory to a growth phase ambiguous. Identifying changes in adoption dynamics is of special interest to managerial decision making, because such identification reflects a reorientation on the basis of competition from technology to marketing, based on changes in the market segments adopting innovations. Only recently has this takeoff phenomenon attracted research, which, however, has not yet focused on critically evaluating identification methods. Using data about the adoption of innovations in 42 countries concerning three different innovations, we examine two identification methods for determining the takeoff point. We show that as a practical method expert evaluation is more reliable than the more rigorous discrimination analysis or non-experts| evaluations. We also provide new avenues for further research.

Keywords: takeoff point; innovation adoption; discrimination analysis; content analysis; technology marketing; adoption dynamics.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTMKT.2007.011586

International Journal of Technology Marketing, 2007 Vol.2 No.1, pp.65 - 80

Published online: 04 Dec 2006 *

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